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Ilembe District Municipality ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND INTELLIGENCE REPORT FOURTH QUARTER 2012 OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2012 Enterprise iLembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: 032 – 946 1256 Fax: 032 – 946 3515 iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 FOREWORD This intelligence report comprises of an assessment of key economic indicators for the iLembe District Municipality for the fourth quarter of 2012, i.e. October to December 2012. This is the 8th edition of the quarterly reports, which are unique to iLembe as we are the only district municipality to publish such a report. The overall objective of this project is to present economic indicators and economic intelligence to assist Enterprise iLembe in driving its mandate, which is to drive economic development and promote trade and investment in the District of iLembe. In these difficult economic times, it is good to focus on the positive coming out of iLembe. Some of the more positive findings of quarter four’s report include: The introduction of an Urban Improvement Precinct in Ballito, modelled on the Umhlanga UIP. More information is given under the news section of this report; Enterprise iLembe’s open farms are consistently yielding vegetables and farmers are supplying more and more established vegetable retailers; The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 4 of 2012 is 7.2. The index has increased quite substantially by 20 points from quarter 3 2012 when it was 5.2. This is the highest since the commencement of this survey; Building completions for KwaDukuza were at their highest point in two years in quarter 4 which is promising. Approvals also remained high, while submissions decreased which is largely due to the end of the year approaching. Building plans approved and completed in quarter three and four show increased activity and development in KwaDukuza; Tourism confidence has increased this quarter to 6.7, which, similar to other business confidence, is the highest since the survey commenced over a year ago. The first harvest of the iLembe Vineyard projects in Ndwedwe, Maphumulo and Mandeni is expected in February 2012. The grapes will be processed into wine at the newly developed winery at Collisheen Estate. Look out for iLembe’s first Villard Blanc wine! 2 iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Table of Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Overview of the iLembe District Economy .............................................................................................................. 7 Latest News and Developments within iLembe ...................................................................................................... 8 Enterprise iLembe Update (Q4 2012) ................................................................................................................... 10 Section One: iLembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Quarterly Data) ........................................................... 12 Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 4, 2012 .................................................................................. 12 Business Confidence .......................................................................................................................................... 13 Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza ........................................................................... 18 Transport Trends ............................................................................................................................................... 21 Tourism Trends .................................................................................................................................................. 25 Employment Indices for South Africa ................................................................................................................ 28 Ballito Chamber of Commerce Business Expansion & Retention Survey (2012) ............................................... 31 Section Two: iLembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Base Data) ................................................................... 33 Demographic Profile .......................................................................................................................................... 33 Socio-Economic Indicators ................................................................................................................................. 38 Employment Indicators ...................................................................................................................................... 40 The Informal Economy ................................................................................................................................... 43 Production, Expenditure and Investment .......................................................................................................... 46 ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS ................................................. 53 A1.1 Population and Households .................................................................................................................. 53 A1.2 Racial Profile .......................................................................................................................................... 53 A1.3 HIV and AIDS ......................................................................................................................................... 53 A1.4 Gender Profile ....................................................................................................................................... 53 A1.5 Age Profile ............................................................................................................................................. 54 A1.6 Household Services ............................................................................................................................... 54 A1.7 Household Dynamics ............................................................................................................................. 54 A1.8 Education Level .................................................................................................................................... 54 3 iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 A1.9 Employment and Unemployment ......................................................................................................... 55 A1.10 Employment by type and skill level .................................................................................................. 55 A1.11 Employment by Industry .................................................................................................................. 55 A1.12 Gross Geographic Product by Industry ............................................................................................ 56 A1.13 Expenditure by Category .................................................................................................................. 57 A1.14 Expenditure by sub-category ........................................................................................................... 58 A1.15 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type ........................................................................ 59 A1.16 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry ............................................................................... 60 A1.17 Building Plans KwaDukuza ................................................................................................................ 60 A1.18 New Service Connections KwaDukuza .............................................................................................. 61 A1.19 Airport Passenger Movements ......................................................................................................... 62 A1.20 Port Movements .............................................................................................................................. 62 4 iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Summary of Key Indicators The table below contains a summary of the key indicators for iLembe within the context of the KwaZulu-Natal province, and highlights the provincial and district indicators for 2011, and the district indicators for 2010 for comparative purposes. In the few cases census data was available, it has been used. Table Summary of Key Economic Indicators Key Indicator iLembe KwaZulu-Natal 2010 2011 2011 Population 562 815 606,809 10,267,300 Households 134,275 157,692 2,539,429 Race (%) African 90.48% 90.71% 85.64% Coloured 0.46% 0.47% 1.41% Asian 6.91% 6.67% 8.34% White 2.15% 2.15% 4.61% Gender (%) Male 48.35% 47.84% 47.69% Female 51.65% 52.16% 52.31% Age (%) 0 - 14 years 33.19% 34% 31.9% 15 - 64 years 62.27% 61% 63.1% over 65 years 4.53% 5% 4.9% HIV/Aids (%) HIV Positive 16.82% 16.42% 15.68% Aids Deaths 1.27% 1.26% 1.20% Unemployment Unemployment Rate (Strict) 22.39% 30.6% 33% Youth Unemployment Rate 37.2% 42.1% Type of Formal 78.32% 76.81% 76.98% Employment Informal 21.68% 23.19% 23.02% (%) Skill (%) Highly Skilled 11.32% 15.34% 18.07% Skilled 40.50% 39.00% 43.03% Semi and
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