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Tamil Nadu State CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES PUNE Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over Tamil Nadu State Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/24(2020)/48 Pulak Guhathakurta, Usha Krishnan, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S T Sable and S C Advani GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/24(2020)/48 Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Tamil Nadu State Pulak Guhathakurta, Usha Krishnan, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable and S C Advani INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PUNE - 411005 1 DOCUMENT AND DATA CONTROL SHEET 1 Document Title Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Tamil Nadu State 2 Issue No. ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/24(2020)/48 3 Issue Date January 2020 4 Security Unclassified Classification 5 Control Status Uncontrolled 6 Document Type Scientific Publication 7 No. of Pages 28 8 No. of Figures 42 9 No. of References 3 10 Distribution Unrestricted 11 Language English 12 Authors Pulak Guhathakurta, Usha Krishnan, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable and S C Advani 13 Originating Climate Research Division/ Climate Application & User Division/ Group Interface Group/ Hydrometeorology 14 Reviewing and Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Approving Department, New Delhi Authority 15 End users Central and State Ministries of Water resources, agriculture and civic bodies, Science and Technology, Disaster Management Agencies 16 Abstract India is in the tropical monsoon zone and receives plenty of rainfall as most of the annual rainfall during the monsoon season every year. However, the rainfall is having high temporal and spatial variability and due to the impact of climate changes there are significant changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability as well as in the intensity and frequencies of extreme rainfall events. The report brings the result of the analysis based on the rent 30 years of data (1989-2018) on the mean spatial rainfall pattern as well as mean spatial pattern of different rainfall events, trends and variability as well as extreme rainfall events during the monsoon months and annual for the state. 17 Key Words Rainfall trend, variability, extreme events, dry days 2 1. Introduction Tamil Nadu lies roughly to the south of latitude 13°30'N. It is one of the southern- most states of the country and is bounded by the Bay of Bengal on its east, Western Ghats on its west, Indian Ocean on its south, and Nellore and Chittoor districts of Andhra Pradesh, on north and Kolar, Bangalore and Mysore districts of Karnataka on its northwest. The Western Ghats run along the whole length of the west coast at distances from the sea varying between 80 and 160 km. The height of the Ghats average 1200 m and rise to even more than 2500 m at some places. There is only one break, known as Palghat gap, 26 km wide in Kerala. Along the eastern coast runs the chain of the Eastern Ghats with average height of 600 m. Its distance from the coast increases as one goes southwards. They encompass a stretch of low country from about 160 to 240 km wide between their easternmost spurs and the east coast. On their way southwards, these two ranges meet and at the point of junction they rise into a striking upheaval known as the Nilgiri hills, on which stands the hill station of Ooty (Uthagamandalam) at 2100 a.m.s.l., whose loftiest peaks are Dodabetta (2600 m.a.s.l) and Makurti (2400 a.m.s.l.).Immediately south of this plateau, the range which now runs between the districts Palghat (in Kerala) and Coimbatore is interrupted by the remarkable Palghat gap. South of this gap, the ghats rise abruptly and at this point they are known as Anaimalai and a continuation of the same hills in Dindigul Anna district is called Palani, Thereafter, the ghats run down to cape Comorin through the states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. There are several isolated peaks of hills which are not directly connected with the ghats. Some of these are the Shevaroy in Salem, the Pachamalai and kollimalai in the same district and Tiruchirappalli district and Javadi hills in the North Arcot-Ambedkar and South Arcot districts. Many studies are available on the observed trends and variability of rainfall and also extreme rainfall events, but all the studies are based on past 100 years or more data and also the recent years are not included (Guhathakurta et al, 2015; Guhathakurta et al, 2011; Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008 etc). Also there are limited studies available on rainfall analysis and trend of the State Tamil Nadu. In the present report all the analysis of observed rainfall patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by the state authorities. 2. Data and Methodology Daily Rainfall data from 1989 to 2018 is considered for analysis of trend variability and mean rainfall patterns. From the daily rainfall data monthly rainfall series of each station is computed and then monthly 3 district rainfall series has been constructed by considering arithmetic average of all the station rainfall values within the district. The monthly rainfall series of the state has been computed by using area weighted rainfall values of all the districts within the state. The objective of the analysis is to: 1. Identify the spatial pattern of the mean rainfall 2. Understand district wise observed rainfall trend and variability in annual and SW monsoon season (June, July, august and September). Daily station rainfall data is utilized for identification of the mean spatial patterns and rainfall intensity trends. From mean and standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated as follows: Standard Deviation Coeffcient of variation (CV) = × 100 Mean Fig.1 shows the location of the districts of the state. Fig. 1 Location of the districts of Tamil Nadu 4 3. State rainfall mean and variability and trend Table 1 shows the mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual during the period 1989-2018. It can be seen that the state gets highest rainfall (34%) of south west monsoon rainfall in September month while the August month gets 28% of the south west monsoon rainfall. June and July receive 17% and 21% of south west monsoon rainfall respectively. 35% of annual rainfall is received during the southwest monsoon season. The variability of monsoon and annual rainfall is 26% and 25% respectively. June July August September JJAS Annual Mean 53.6 64.7 88.0 105.4 311.7 898.1 CV 46.7 41.9 40.9 37.8 26.3 25.5 Table 1 Mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual Fig. 2 and 3 show the time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and southwest monsoon season, annual respectively. The trend lines are also displayed for each of the series. Neither monthly rainfall nor seasonal or annual rainfall shows any significant increasing/decreasing trend. In the monthly rainfall August shows increasing trend while June, July and September show decreasing trend. Seasonal rainfall shows no trend whereas annual rainfall shows slight decreasing trend. During the last 30 years highest rainfall of June (127.6 mm) and July (155.1 mm) received in the year 1991 and 1989 respectively while highest rainfall of 159.5 mm in August received in the year 2015 and of 207.2 mm in September received in the year 2004. Highest annual rainfall of 1324 mm received in the year 2005 and highest southwest monsoon rainfall of 436.2 mm received in the year 1996. 5 Fig. 2 Time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and trends Fig. 3 Time series of rainfall in mm for the southwest monsoon season and annual trends 6 4. District rainfall mean, variability and trend 4.1 Mean and coefficient of variation Table 2 gives the rainfall statistics for the districts of Tamil Nadu for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual while Fig.4-5 shows the spatial pattern of these statistics. It can be seen that the district in the western part of the state viz. Nilgiris receives highest rainfall over other districts during the monsoon months, monsoon season and annual period. Rainfall received over this district is around 174-216 mm in June, 219-272 mm in July and 164-200 mm in August. In September, in addition to Nilgiris highest rainfall is also received in the northern districts of the state viz Vellore, Thiruvannamalai, Kanchipuram and Dharmapuri ranging from 138-165 mm. During SW monsoon highest rainfall is over Nilgiris and annual highest is over Nilgiris and Kanyakumari ranging from 696-1567 mm. Lowest rainfall received during the SW monsoon season is over Thoothukudi district (61.8 mm) while Tirupur district received lowest annual rainfall (600.3 mm). According to Table 2 variance in rainfall is maximum for Ariyalur district in the months of June, August, September and monsoon months. Perambalur district shows maximum variation in July, August, monsoon months and annual scale. Fig.4 shows the overall picture of mean rainfall over districts of state. Except for a couple of districts in the western part of the state not much rainfall is received in the months of June and July. In the month of August, the northern part of the state gets more rainfall (90-164 mm) as compared to the previous months and Nilgiris and Coimbatore districts in the western part of the state gets highest rainfall.
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