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Cape Verde J U L Y 2 0 1 3 CAPE VERDE J U L Y 2 0 1 3 INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT KIT OF OPPORTUNITIES The Country's Economic Context Industry Structure IilTdBillTdihPldOiiInternational Trade, Bilateral Trade with Portugal and Opportunities BES Group’s Internationalisation Support: International Premium Unit BES Group's International Offering Contacts ISKO Cape Verde Intenational Premium Unit / ES Research – Sectoral Research CAPE VERDE Business environment and key factors BiBusiness env ironmen t Ease of doing business 122/185 (Doing Business 2013 ranking) Starting a business 129/185 Cross-border trade 63/185 Contract fulfilment 38/185 Econo mic Freedo m 65/177 (Economic Freedom 2012 ranking) Competitiveness 122/144 (Global Competitiveness Index 2012-2013 ranking) Basic Requirements 100/144 Infrastructure 114/144 Institutions 57/144 Efficiency Enhancers 128/144 Innovation and Sophistication 119/144 Praia Cosec (Risk group) 5 Grade 1 (lowest risk) to 7 (highest risk) Standard & Poor’s (Rating) Capital: Praia Official Language: Portuguese (AAA rating (lowest risk) to D (highest risk, default)) Population (Thousands): 534 (2013) Surface Area: 4 033 km2 (10 islands) Long-term debt in local currency B+ Time Zone: GMT - 1 Currency: Cape Verde Escudo (CVE, fixed Long-term debt in foreign currency B+ exchange rate EUR/110.3 CVE) Outlook Negative Type of Government: Semi-presidential Republic Religion: Christian Majority (Catholics, 95%) Sources: IMF, W orld Ban k, INE C ab o Ver de, COSEC, WldEWorld Econom iFic Forum, GlblHitGlobal Heritage, Bloom berg. ISKO Cape Verde 03 International Premium Unit / ES Research – Sectoral Research CAPE VERDE Macroeconomic Indicators 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E GDP 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 Current prices EUR billion GDP real growth rate 5.0 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.7 Percentage 10. 0 10. 0 10. 0 Unemployment Rate 9.0 9.0 Percentage of working population 4.5 4.0 3.3 Inflation Rate 2.5 2.8 Percentage 110.3 110.3 110.3 110.3 110.3 Exchange Rate EUR/CVE Current Account Percentage of GDP -16.0 -11.1 -13.2 -11.4 -8.3 Fiscal Balance -2.2 Percentage of GDP -7.3 -7.5 -7.6 -5.8 E Estimates Sources: INE Cabo Verde, Banco de Cabo Verde, IMF. ISKO Cape Verde 04 International Premium Unit / ES Research – Sectoral Research CABO VERDE Economic Summary (I) Cape Verde is a small open economy, which is very dependent on the international economy given its high reliance on imported food and energy and on capital inflows from overseas (e.g. emigrants remittances and foreign aid). It has an economy based on services (including tourism), which account for around 75% of GDP. The industrial base is not well developed (being essentially limited to the textile, footwear and fishing industries). Cape Verde’s economy, despite a slight slowdown, has shown remarkable resilience in the context of a world economy marked by a high level of uncertainty, in particularasaresultoftheEuroZonedebtcrisis,whichhashad an impact on foreign investment flows and on the performance of several European economies with close relations with Cape Verde (Portugal and Spain account for over 50% of the islands’ foreign trade). In April 2013, following its regular review of the Cape Verdean economy within the terms of Article IV, the International Monetary Funds (IMF) lowered its growth outlook for Cape Verde’s economy in 2013, forecasting a growth rate of 4.1%, 0.2 pp lower than the growth rate recorded the in prior year. Indeed, aslowdowninCape Verde’s economy was already evident in 2012, whentherateof growth declined to 4.3%, from 5%, in 2011. The IMF again drew attention to the situation in the international economy and a slowdown in internal demand as factors which are leading to a decline in the growth rate, in spite of the good performance posted by the tourism sector. In 2012, the number of overnight stays increase by 18% in relation to the prior year. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts an average annual increase in tourism receipts of approximately 10% (6.7% in real terms) over the next ten years. Economic indicators continue to point to a contraction in internal demand and an expansion in external demand (contributing positively to net external demand). A lower propensity to consume and, in particular, to import capital goods – a decline is particularly evident in machinery and construction – allied to an acceleration in the rate of growth of tourism receipts is allowing net external dddemand to stilimulate growth inthe economy. The authorities have committed themselves to developing the fisheries sector, to positioning Cape Verde as a transatlantic hub and to expanding the financial and telecommunications sectors. Over the next few years, the key public investment projects will be centred on infrastructure. Almost 50% will be related to the energy, water, transport and maritime logistics sectors. The public investment programme also includes a social dimension, the development of human capital and intervention in specific sectors in order to increase competitiveness. Sources: IMF, OECD, BCV, ES Research – Sectoral Research. ISKO Cape Verde 05 International Premium Unit / ES Research – Sectoral Research CAPE VERDE Economic Summary (II) In 2014 and 2015, inflation is seen stabilising around 3%, following an expected acceleration in 2013, when prices are seen rising by 4%. The tdtrend in fiforeign reserves has also been fblfavourable, whic h has guarantdteed amarginof comftfort inmaitiiintaining an appropriate level of intervention in the foreign exchange market to guarantee the stability of the framework which involved a peg of the Cape Verde escudo (CVE) to the Euro (EUR=CVE 110.265). An increase in emigrants’ remittances has contributed decisively to the rise in foreign exchange reserves. In this context, the BCV (Central Bank of Cape Verde) has maintained its key monetary policy instruments unchanged, with the rediscount, marginal lending and liquidity absorption rates stable at 9.75%, 8.75% and 3.25%, respectively. In a visit carried out in December 2012, the IMF dedicated part of its analysis to the sustainability of the country’s public finances in the medium term and advised Cape Verde’s authorities to implement measures to consolidate the budget, starting in 2013, by rationalising expenditure in order to forestall possible difficulties in financing the economy. At the time, the mission classified the budget as expansionary, proposing that expenditure should be adjusted in accordance with revenues. In the visit conducted in April 2013, the Fund highlighted the increase in public debt, drawing attention to the issue of sustainability in the medium term. This was precisely one of the key aspects identified by the rating agency Fitch when it lowered the rating on the country’s long-term foreign currency rating from BB- to B+, while maintaining aBrating on short-term foreign currency debt. However, the IMF’s most recent evaluation ended in a controversial manner, when it initially estimated public debt to be equivalent to 97% of GDP, only to later acknowledge that the actual level is equal to 83% of GDP. Subsequently, Standard & Poor’s maintained Cape Verde’s sovereign rating at B+, revised its outlook from stable to negative, explicitly drawing attention to the high public and external debt as factors limiting Cape Verde’s ability to withstand potential external shocks. Despite a less favourable macroeconomic environment, Cape Verde continues to be held in high regard by the main international institutions. The World Bank’s ease of doing business index, Doing Business 2013 (DB 2013), rates the country 122nd out of 185 economies surveyed and 2nd in Central and West Africa. Cape Verde is one of the leading “medium human development” countries, according to the United Nations’ Human Development Index. In 2012, Cape Verde ranked sixth in Sub-Saharan Africa. As regards the Ibrahim African Governance Index, Cape Verde ranks second out of 52 African countries surveyed, surpassed only by Mauritius. Sources: IMF, OECD, BCV, ES Research – Sectoral Research. ISKO Cape Verde 06 International Premium Unit / ES Research – Sectoral Research CAPE VERDE International Integration (I) CPLP – Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries Comprising Portugal, Angola, Brazil, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Saint Thomas and Prince and East Timor, it seeks to harmonize political and diplomatic relations in terms of international foreign policy, namely in the defence and ppp,promotion of common interests and in relation to specific issues, promote cooperation, particularly in economic, social, cultural, legal, technical and scientific fields, and implementation of programs to promote and spread the Portuguese language. www.cplp.org ECOWAS – Economic Community of West African States ECOWAS isaregilional economic itintegra tion organitiization for WtWest Afr ican countries, comprising around 230 million consumers in 15 member states, including Santo Antão Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau. www.ecowas.int São Vicente Santa Luzia Sal São Nicolau AfDB – African Development Bank Founded in 1964, this financial institution emerged from 3 Africa development Boavista funds. Its objective is to promote sustained economic development and reduce Atlântico poverty in the African continent. Portugal is a non-regional member as of 1982. Norte www.afdb.org Maio São Tiago Macaronesia/EU Brava Political and development cooperation initiative between the archipelagos of the Fogo Praia Azores, the Canaries, Cape Verde and Madeira, who have established a partnership as ultra peripheral regions of the EU. On 9 December 2011, the European Union granted the Generalized System of Preferences + (()GSP+) status to Cape Verde, which was the first African country to achieve this status1. 1 When Cape Verde ceased to have United Nations “Less Developed Country “status in December 2007, it was conceded a transition period, which expired on 31 December 2011. The GSP+ is a Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) which guarantees better access to European markets for Cape Verdean products and services, as long as there is an effective commitment to implementing the 27 most important international conventions relating to respect for human and labour rights, the environment and good governance.
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