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Initiate at Buy, TP INR1,958 and 23% Upside Global Markets Research VA Tech Wabag VATE.NS VATW IN EQUITY: ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION Initiate at Buy, TP INR1,958 and 23% upside Global Markets Research Strong growth prospects in a niche but growing water 27 January 2015 Rating treatment sector Starts at Buy Action: Initiate at Buy and TP of INR1,958, a 23% upside potential Target price Starts at INR 1958 VA Tech Wabag (VATW) is one of India’s largest water treatment companies, with a strong global presence as well. VATW derives its roots from the Austria- Closing price 23 January 2015 INR 1596 based water business of Siemens, which it acquired in 2007. With rising focus of the government and multi-lateral funding agencies on an escalating water Potential upside +22.7% shortage and ~68% of sewage being untreated in India, we think the water treatment sector is poised for secular long-term growth. While constantly- evolving technologies to efficiently capture incremental sources of clean water Anchor themes create an entry barrier in an otherwise fragmented industry, we believe VATW VA Tech Wabag is a niche play brings in strong project management experience, a global client reference list on the emerging water and waste water treatment opportunity, both and technological understanding. Despite the frail financial health of in India as well as in other municipalities (its primary customers, which often delay payments), VATW has emerging markets. With rising maintained a debt-free balance sheet and negligible bad debt. We estimate focus on clean water for drinking 22% revenue CAGR over FY14-17F and ~18% over the next 10 years. We as well as on better effluent initiate at Buy and TP of INR1,958 with 23% upside potential. (India market treatment, we believe there is a size and details on Ganga cleaning opportunity on page 17-27). strong long-term growth Catalysts: A strong pipeline of orders opportunity for VATW. Upcoming award from Tamil Nadu for two new desalination plants, and Mumbai for three sewage treatment plants; Nomura vs consensus Ganga cleaning to offer a multi-year waste-water treatment opportunity. Our TP is significantly ahead of consensus; however, we note Valuation: Strong growth justifies 23.5x FY16F P/E, initiate with Buy that the stock is not well covered. Trading at 23.5x FY16F P/E, VATW still offers value (comparison table on page 5), given its strong orderbook (TTM book: bill of 2.9x), new order Research analysts visibility, EPS CAGR of ~30% over FY14-17F, reasonable ROE of ~15% despite being net cash and 10-year revenue CAGR of >18%. Despite 50/50 India Engineering & Construction revenue mix (India/overseas), VATW carries negligible FX risks as most of the Amar Kedia - NFASL cost is in local currency. We value VATW at 22.5x FY17F P/E (fair value range [email protected] of 15-25x benchmarked to ENGR/NBCC) to derive our TP of INR1,958. +91 22 4037 4182 Vineet Verma - NFASL [email protected] Year-end 31 Mar FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F +91 22 4037 4487 Currency (INR) Actual Old New Old New Old New Revenue (mn) 22,386 N/A 26,775 N/A 33,014 N/A 40,563 Reported net profit (mn) 1,134 N/A 1,386 N/A 1,881 N/A 2,410 Normalised net profit (mn) 1,083 N/A 1,386 N/A 1,881 N/A 2,410 FD normalised EPS 39.78 N/A 50.04 N/A 67.90 N/A 87.01 FD norm. EPS growth (%) 17.8 N/A 25.8 N/A 35.7 N/A 28.1 FD normalised P/E (x) 40.1 N/A 31.9 N/A 23.5 N/A 18.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 N/A 15.4 N/A 11.3 N/A 8.5 Price/book (x) 5.3 N/A 3.8 N/A 3.0 N/A 2.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.6 N/A 0.6 N/A 1.0 N/A 1.4 ROE (%) 14.6 N/A 13.8 N/A 14.3 N/A 15.3 Net debt/equity (%) net cash N/A net cash N/A net cash N/A net cash Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Nomura | VA Tech Wabag 27 January 2015 Key data on VA Tech Wabag Relative performance chart Cashflow statement (INRmn) Year-end 31 Mar FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F EBITDA 1,540 1,885 2,444 3,159 3,998 Change in working capital -169 -324 -715 -597 44 Other operating cashflow -668 -767 -1,009 -1,289 -1,592 Cashflow from operations 703 795 721 1,273 2,450 Capital expenditure -410 -1,046 -400 -500 -750 Free cashflow 293 -251 321 773 1,700 Reduction in investments 3 -199 200 0 0 Net acquisitions Dec in other LT assets 0000 Inc in other LT liabilities Adjustments 132 179 144 230 265 CF after investing acts 429 -270 666 1,004 1,965 Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Cash dividends -217 -249 -264 -433 -627 Equity issue 12000 Notes: Debt issue -426761000 Convertible debt issue Others 56 408 2,224 1,460 491 CF from financial acts -587 922 1,960 1,027 -137 Performance Net cashflow -158 651 2,625 2,031 1,828 (%) 1M 3M 12M Beginning cash 3,983 3,825 4,476 7,101 9,132 Absolute (INR) 3.8 -1.8 198.1 M cap (USDmn) 702.1 Ending cash 3,825 4,476 7,101 9,132 10,961 Absolute (USD) 6.9 -2.4 200.3 Free float (%) 70.9 Ending net debt -3,003 -2,894 -5,519 -7,550 -9,378 Rel to MSCI India 3.8 -8.8 169.2 3-mth ADT (USDmn) 1.3 Balance sheet (INRmn) Income statement (INRmn) As at 31 Mar FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F Year-end 31 Mar FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F Cash & equivalents 3,825 4,476 7,101 9,132 10,961 Revenue 16,189 22,386 26,775 33,014 40,563 Marketable securities 0200000 Cost of goods sold -11,876 -17,129 -20,842 -25,942 -32,065 Accounts receivable 11,464 15,070 16,468 20,305 24,949 Gross profit 4,313 5,257 5,933 7,072 8,499 Inventories 405 350 563 702 868 SG&A -824 -1,304 -1,239 -1,391 -1,564 Other current assets 2,076 2,238 2,650 3,241 3,955 Employee share expense -2,058 -2,217 -2,444 -2,742 -3,197 Total current assets 17,770 22,335 26,782 33,380 40,733 Operating profit 1,431 1,735 2,250 2,939 3,738 LT investments 33 32 32 32 32 EBITDA 1,540 1,885 2,444 3,159 3,998 Fixed assets 988 1,884 2,090 2,370 2,859 Depreciation -109 -150 -194 -220 -261 Goodwill 00000 Amortisation Other intangible assets EBIT 1,431 1,735 2,250 2,939 3,738 Other LT assets Net interest expense -212 -252 -331 -369 -414 Total assets 18,791 24,250 28,903 35,781 43,624 Associates & JCEs 8 6 8 10 12 Short-term debt 822 1,583 1,583 1,583 1,583 Other income 132 129 144 230 265 Accounts payable 6,890 8,620 9,248 11,836 15,489 Earnings before tax 1,360 1,618 2,072 2,810 3,600 Other current liabilities 4,018 5,679 6,357 7,740 9,655 Income tax -456 -526 -666 -914 -1,182 Total current liabilities 11,730 15,881 17,188 21,158 26,727 Net profit after tax 904 1,092 1,407 1,896 2,418 Long-term debt Minority interests 0 -9 -20 -16 -8 Convertible debt Other items Other LT liabilities -112 -70 -70 -70 -70 Preferred dividends Total liabilities 11,618 15,810 17,117 21,088 26,656 Normalised NPAT 903 1,083 1,386 1,881 2,410 Minority interest 19 28 49 64 73 Extraordinary items 0 51 0 0 0 Preferred stock Reported NPAT 903 1,134 1,386 1,881 2,410 Common stock 54 55 55 55 55 Dividends -217 -249 -264 -433 -627 Retained earnings 7,100 8,356 11,682 14,574 16,839 Transfer to reserves 686 885 1,122 1,448 1,783 Proposed dividends Valuations and ratios Other equity and reserves Reported P/E (x) 47.3 38.3 31.9 23.5 18.3 Total shareholders' equity 7,154 8,412 11,737 14,630 16,895 Normalised P/E (x) 47.3 40.1 31.9 23.5 18.3 Total equity & liabilities 18,791 24,250 28,903 35,781 43,624 FD normalised P/E (x) 47.3 40.1 31.9 23.5 18.3 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 Liquidity (x) Price/cashflow (x) 60.7 54.7 61.3 34.7 18.0 Current ratio 1.51 1.41 1.56 1.58 1.52 Price/book (x) 6.0 5.3 3.8 3.0 2.6 Interest cover 6.8 6.9 6.8 8.0 9.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 26.0 21.3 15.4 11.3 8.5 Leverage EV/EBIT (x) 28.0 23.2 16.7 12.1 9.0 Net debt/EBITDA (x) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Gross margin (%) 26.6 23.5 22.2 21.4 21.0 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 8.4 9.1 9.6 9.9 EBIT margin (%) 8.8 7.7 8.4 8.9 9.2 Per share Net margin (%) 5.6 5.1 5.2 5.7 5.9 Reported EPS (INR) 33.77 41.64 50.04 67.90 87.01 Effective tax rate (%) 33.5 32.5 32.1 32.5 32.8 Norm EPS (INR) 33.77 39.78 50.04 67.90 87.01 Dividend payout (%) 24.1 21.9 19.1 23.0 26.0 FD norm EPS (INR) 33.77 39.78 50.04 67.90 87.01 ROE (%) na 14.6 13.8 14.3 15.3 BVPS (INR) 267.44 303.67 423.72 528.14 609.92 ROA (pretax %) na 10.0 10.9 12.2 12.6 DPS (INR) 8.13 8.98 9.53 15.63 22.65 Growth (%) Activity (days) Revenue 38.3 19.6 23.3 22.9 Days receivable 216.3 215.0 203.8 203.6 EBITDA 22.4 29.7 29.2 26.6 Days inventory 8.0 8.0 8.9 8.9 Normalised EPS 17.8 25.8 35.7 28.1 Days payable 165.2 156.5 148.7 155.5 Normalised FDEPS 17.8 25.8 35.7 28.1 Cash cycle 0.0 59.1 66.5 64.0 57.0 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 2 Nomura | VA Tech Wabag 27 January 2015 Focus charts • Charts below present a snapshot of the key theme presented in this report.
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