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PO Box 5978 Beverly Hills, CA 90209 (424) 254-9598 PO Box 5978 Beverly Hills, CA 90209 (424) 254-9598 www.californiatargetbook.com February 6h, 2018 Between 2012 and 2016, a total of 66 Democratic candidates ran for the 14 out of 53 California House seats held by Republican incumbents, raising $17.3 million for their campaigns along the way. This year alone, 69 Democrats have filed with the FEC and are currently running for those same seats. Before the first ballot has even been printed, those candidates have collected $22.8 million, raising more in a single year than all the Democratic candidates running in those districts raised in the previous six years combined. Are we witnessing the beginning of a wave, or of a speculative bubble? Here’s part two of the rundown on the state of play in the 14 California Republican‐held Congressional seats. In CA21 (R‐Valadao), which has historically been a recruiting nightmare for Democrats, 2016 candidate Emilio Huerta remains the only Democratic candidate in the race. The son of labor icon Dolores Huerta, whose endorsement is a much sought‐after commodity for Democratic candidates, he won the pre‐endorsement conference without any competition. After filing a statement of candidacy with the FEC in May, he raised $35,828 in the second quarter, with each successive quarter worse than the previous. He raised $95,193 over the course of the year, building up a $96,554 war chest that was less than a tenth of the incumbent’s. In his 2016 attempt, Huerta spent $655,395, was aided by over $1.7 million in outside spending from the Democratic House leadership PAC, and suffered a 13.48% defeat in a district where Democrats hold a 17‐point voter registration advantage over Republicans. Total Dem Candidate $ 2012 – 2016: $3,061,123. Total Dem $ 2017: $95,193 In CA22, (R‐Nunes) Democrat Andrew Janz secured enough support at the pre‐endorsement conference to be awarded the official party endorsement at the February California Democratic Party Convention. He raised $278,500 in 2017 in his bid to challenge Devin Nunes and Nunes’ $3.8 million war chest, the largest of any of California’s House incumbents. After the House Intelligence Committee released the Nunes Memo highlighting alleged surveillance abuses by the FBI, Janz’ campaign reported receiving $100,000 over the next 48 hours. Three other Democrats, Bobby Bliatout ($123,792 raised), Rico Franco ($24,015 raised), and Brant John‐Michael Williams (filed in January), have filed with the FEC, along with a Libertarian and a No Party Preference candidate. Republicans hold a double‐ digit voter registration advantage, and the Democratic share of registered voters has declined since 2012. Total Dem Candidate $ 2012 – 2016: $435,746. Total Dem $ 2017: $426,307 In CA23 (R‐McCarthy), Democrat Tatiana Matta won the pre‐endorsement conference despite raising just $5,432 for her shoestring campaign. Democrat Wendy Reed ($12,378 raised), who ran against McCarthy in 2016, boycotted the pre‐endorsement conference, citing a ‘rigged process’. The $4.2 million raised by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy in 2017 is among the highest in Congress, and by far the highest in California. McCarthy disbursed $600,000 to the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2017, $100,000 to the CA GOP, and another $100,000 to the proposed ballot initiative to repeal California’s recently enacted gas tax. Despite spending north of $1 million for Republican candidates, causes, and committees in 2017, he ended the year with a $3.2 million war chest, the fourth largest of California’s House incumbents, with only Nunes, retiring CA39 Rep Ed Royce, and CA28 Democrat Adam Schiff ahead of him. Donald Trump carried 58.1% of the vote here, his single best Congressional district in California, and McCarthy’s 69.18% win gave him the highest winning margin for any California Republican House incumbent in 2016. Total Dem Candidate $ 2012 – 2016: $49,702. Total Dem $ 2017: $35,179 PO Box 5978 Beverly Hills, CA 90209 (424) 254-9598 www.californiatargetbook.com In CA25 (R‐Knight), 2016 Democratic candidate Bryan Caforio ($678,114 raised) secured 73% support at the pre‐ endorsement conference, in a reversal from 2016 when local activists overwhelmingly endorsed his poorly‐funded opponent. Democrat Katie Hill ($697,087 raised), who has kept pace with Caforio in fundraising and has a similar cash on hand level of around $380,000, received 20.3% support. The other Democrats in the race declined to compete. Democrat Jess Phoenix, who has a social media following an order of magnitude greater than her chief opponents, has raised $284,217, with the majority coming from small‐dollar un‐itemized contributors. Democrats Scott McVarish ($23,120 raised), Mike Masterman‐Smith ($12,369 raised), and Dan Fleming (no report) round out the field. One additional Democrat has pulled papers, and former Oak Park Unified School District Trustee and 2008 Congressional candidate Mary Pallant staged a late jump into the race in February. In clearing the 70% threshold, absent a broadly orchestrated floor fight by his opponents, Caforio will be awarded the Democratic Party’s endorsement at the February California Democratic Party Convention. After spending $1.7 million in the 2016 campaign and benefitting from over $3.5 million in outside spending, Caforio suffered a 6.26% defeat even as Hillary Clinton won the district by a similar margin. Total Dem Candidate $ 2012 – 2016: $2,922,169. Total Dem $ 2017: $1,699,164 .
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