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Ciputra Development Bloomberg: CTRA.IJ | Reuters: CTRA.JK Company Update Ciputra Development Bloomberg: CTRA.IJ | Reuters: CTRA.JK Samuel Research 01 Nopember 2017 Inline 9M17 weak 3Q17 BUY (Maintain) Perbaikan sektor yang masih belum terlihat dan rendahnya pengakuan pendapatan di 3Q17 serta stagnasi pertumbuhan segmen rumah hunian Target Price Rp 1,580 dan rulo telah mendorong stagnasi kinerja keuangan CTRA di 9M17. Last Price Rp 1,205 Kenaikan segmen recurring yang hanya +6.5%YoY juga tidak dapat banyak menolong lonjakan beban lain-lain (179%YoY) yang telah ikut Potential Upside 31.1% menekan laba bersih 9M17 turun -8.4%YoY. Sudut pandang kami untuk JCI Index 6,017 CTRA tahun depan masih positif (lihat report SSI sebelumnya). Review yang tengah kami lakukan tidak akan menurunkan TP maupun Share isued (mn) 18.56 rekomendasi. Tetap BUY CTRA dengan TP NAV Rp1.580 (50% disc to Market Cap. (Rp bn) 22.37 NAV), 23.1x P/E17E dan 2.0x PBV17E. 52-Weeks High/Low 1,700 / 990 Rendahnya kinerja 9M17. CTRA melaporkan penurunan pendapatan dan laba sebesar -1.6%YoY dan -8.4%YoY, sedangkan per 3Q17 lonjakan laba Avg Daily Vol (mn) 16.79 bersih QoQ belum kami simpulkan sebagai sinyal perbaikan stabil kinerja Free Float 49.0 tahun depan. Di sisi lain, angka 9M17A dapat dikatakan inline vs proyeksi pendapatan kami untuk CTRA di 9M17E, atau mencapai 96.3% dan laba Nominal Value Rp 250 bersih +0.8% lebih baik (Rp566miliar 9M17A vs Rp562miliar 9M17E SSI). Book value/share ‘17 Rp 774 Adapun 3Q17A hanya mencapai 83.1% dan 81.7% vs 3Q17E kami. Relative to JCI Chart Stagnasi main revenue contributor. Di periode yang sama unit bisnis 140 JCI CTRA penyumbang utama pendapatan konsolidasian (rumah hunian dan ruko) 130 tercatat stagnan menjadi Rp2.31tn vs Rp2.44tn di 9M16, dengan total 120 110 penjualan unit usaha non-recurring menjadi Rp3.14tn dan tidak banyak 100 berubah dari Rp3.28tn 9M16. Demikian pula dengan segmen recurring yang 90 meskipun bertumbuh +6.5%YoY tidak dapat banyak mengimbangi stagnasi 80 bisnis non-recurring. 70 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Ekspektasi meningkatknya pengakuan pendapatan. Sepanjang Jan- Sept17, CTRA membukukan pre-sales +21.5%YoY menjadi Rp5.25tn. Pengakuan pendapatan yang lebih banyak di kuaryal berjalan dibarengi Company Background dengan pertumbuhan recurring yang lebih baik dan stabilnya kenaikan pre- PT Ciputra Development Tbk merupakan sales tahun depan menjadi beberapa katalis pertumbuhan FY18. Marketing pengembang dan penjual landed house, sales 9M17 mencapai 61.8% dari target CTRA dan 62.2% dibandingkan apartement, ruang perkantoran dan dengan estimasi FY17E kami (Rp8.43tn), inline vs 60.1% tahun lalu. properti lainnya. CTRA juga mengembangkan berbagai fasilitas yang Maintain BUY. Kontinuitas suku bunga yang rendah potensi meningkatkan berhubungan dengan properti. catatan penjualan segmen residential dan shophouses sebagai akibat Shareholder Structure peningkatan profile konsumen menggunakan mortgage (51% di 9M17, 49% di FY16 dan jauh diatas FY15 29%). Beberapa resiko investasi : (1) PT Sang Pelopor 44.8% pelemahan sektor berlanjut (2) nilai pre sales turun. Credit Suiise Group 6.2% Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp1,205 per share) Others 49.0% Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Sales 7,514 6,739 6,896 7,928 EBITDA 2,528 1,990 2,228 2,308 Net Profit 1,739 1,171 1,271 1,447 EPS (Rp/saham) 94 63 68 78 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA DPS (Rp) 15 39 50 68 +62 21 2854 8144 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 3.2 4.1 5.6 [email protected] BV per share (Rp) 703 770 774 807 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 11.1 8.7 6.1 P/E Ratio (x) 12.9 19.1 17.6 15.5 P/BV Ratio (x) 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 5 Ciputra Development CTRA:IJ | CTRA.JK Figure 1. CTRA Quarterly Result 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 QoQ YoY 9M16 9M17 YoYvs vsFY16 FY17Evs FY17ESSI cons Sales 1.540 1.555 1.522 (2,1) (1,2) 4.419 4.348 (1,6) 65,6 63,1 56,5 COGS (812) (756) (844) 11,6 3,9 (2.280) (2.267) (0,6) Gross profit 728 799 678 (15,2) (6,9) 2.139 2.081 (2,7) S&GA and others (285) (498) (252) (49,4) (11,6) (1.060) (1.066) 0,5 Operating profit 443 302 426 41,3 (3,8) 1.078 1.016 (5,8) Net Interest expense (121) (72) (92) 27,4 (23,9) (270) (248) (8,1) Other income (expenses) 103 (34) (6) (82,9) (105,6) 90 57 (37,3) Pre-tax profit 426 196 328 67,8 (22,8) 898 824 (8,3) Profit (loss) for the period 329 141 256 82,0 (22,2) 668 625 (6,5) Owners of the parent 308 123 227 84,1 (26,5) 618 566 (8,4) 71,2 60,4 46,3 Margin Gross margin 47,3 51,4 44,5 (6,8) (2,7) 48,4 47,9 (0,5) - (47,9) Operating margin 28,8 19,4 28,0 8,6 (0,8) 24,4 23,4 (1,0) - (23,4) Net margin 20,0 7,9 14,9 7,0 (5,1) 14,0 13,0 (1,0) 95,8 82,8 Source: Company, SSI research Figure 2. CTRA and peers Stock Rec Mkt Cap Last Price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE Coverage (Rpbn) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BSDE BUY 33,201 1,725 0.3 (1.7) 2,267 2,350 36.23 15.4 13.3 1.3 1.1 8.7% 8.5% PWON BUY 30,581 635 0.8 12.4 723 767 20.79 15.5 13.0 3.0 2.5 19.2% 19.3% ASRI BUY 7,899 402 (1.0) 14.2 442 448 11.44 14.9 14.4 1.0 0.9 6.7% 6.6% SMRA HOLD 14,643 1,015 (1.9) (23.4) 1,254 1,110 9.36 44.9 33.6 1.8 1.9 4.1% 5.7% SSIA BUY 2,800 595 0.8 37.1 796 750 26.05 39.7 22.9 0.9 0.9 2.3% 3.8% CTRA BUY 22,365 1,205 (0.4) (9.7) 1,469 1,580 31.12 17.7 15.4 1.6 1.5 8.8% 9.7% DMAS BUY 9,013 187 (1.1) (19.1) 283 300 60.43 10.6 8.5 1.0 0.9 9.7% 10.8% KIJA BUY 6,289 302 (0.7) 4.2 446 450 49.01 13.1 11.6 1.0 0.9 7.8% 8.1% Average 21.5 16.6 1.5 1.3 8.4% 9.0% Source: Company, SSI research Figure 3. CTRA PE Band 30 25 20 15 10 5 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PE - Forward ST dev +2 ST dev -2 Source: Bloomberg, SSI research www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5 Ciputra Development CTRA:IJ | CTRA.JK Figure 4. CTRA NAV Valuation Market Area Price/sqm NAV Assets Value (Rp (ha) (Rp '000) (Rp bn) bn) 1 Citra Garden City 6 West Jkt 2.5 18,000 450 24 2 Citra Garden City, other areasWest Jkt 39.1 16,000 6,256 337 Raw land 10.68 16,000 1,709 92 3 Citra Raya Tangerang West Java 100.8 3,000 3,024 163 raw land 333.78 3,000 10,013 540 4 Citra Indah Jonggol West Java 85.9 1,500 1,289 69 raw land 93 1,500 1,395 75 5 Citraland Surabaya East Java 148.6 7,400 10,996 592 raw land 379.38 7,400 28,074 1,513 6 Citraharmoni Sidoarjo East Java 24.1 3,900 940 51 raw land 28.02 3,900 1,093 59 7 Citraland lampung South Sum 14.8 3,500 518 28 raw land 6.72 3,500 235 13 8 Citragarden sidoarjo East Java 3 5,000 150 8 9 Citragarden lampung South Sum 1.9 2,000 38 2 10 Citraland Pekanbaru West Sum 5.3 4,000 212 11 raw land West Sum 1.92 4,000 77 4 11 Citraland NGK Jambi South Sum 2 3,400 54 3 Total 66,523 3,584 After tax 63,197 3,405 Recurring income 3,120 168 Sub total 66,317 3,573 Total shares (in mn) 18,560 Debt 4,430 239 Advances from cust 5,850 315 Cash 2,702 146 Net Asset Value 58,738 3,165 50% 50% disc to NAV 1,582 Target price 1,580 Market Price (IDR) 1,205 Upside Potential 31% Source: Bloomberg, SSI research www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5 Ciputra Development CTRA:IJ | CTRA.JK Key financial figures Profit and Loss Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 7,514 6,739 6,896 7,928 Net income 1,284 862 937 1,067 COGS (3,786) (3,450) (3,456) (3,947) Depreciation & amort. (223) (243) (248) (268) Gross profit 3,729 3,290 3,440 3,981 Working capital chg (1,638) (1,781) 1,227 (69) Gross margin (%) 49.6 48.8 49.9 50.2 Others 2,030 0 0 0 Operating profit 2,415 1,851 2,095 2,168 Operating cash flow 1,452 (1,162) 1,916 729 Opr margin (%) 32.1 27.5 30.4 27.4 Net - Capex (1,151) (701) (810) (932) EBITDA 2,528 1,990 2,228 2,308 Investing cash flow (2,562) (2,277) (449) (2,509) EBITDA margin (%) 33.6 29.5 32.3 29.1 Net - Borrowings 639 1,207 (983) 927 Other inc (expenses) (250) (350) (405) (646) Other financing 605 1,982 (567) 1,354 Pre-tax profit 1,885 1,326 1,346 1,522 Financing cash flow 1,244 3,189 (1,550) 2,281 Income tax - net (146) (155) (75) (75) Net - Cash flow 135 (249) (83) 501 Net profit 1,739 1,171 1,271 1,447 Cash at beginning 2,900 3,034 2,785 2,702 Net profit margin (%) 23.1 17.4 18.4 18.3 Cash at ending 3,034 2,785 2,702 3,203 -32.7% 8.5% 0 683 0 0 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash & ST Investment 3,034 3,468 2,702 3,203 ROE (%) 9.8 6.0 6.5 7.1 Receivables 1,323 1,702 1,742 2,002 ROA (%) 4.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 Inventories 7,531 7,945 7,575 7,849 Revenue growth (%) 18.5 (10.3) 2.3 15.0 Others 656 596 609 701 EPS growth (%) (3.1) (32.9) 8.7 13.8 Total current assets 12,545 13,711 12,627 13,755 Interest coverage (x) 3.9 2.3 2.2 2.1 Net fixed assets 2,962 3,034 3,115 3,182 Debt to equity (%) 40.4 45.2 36.7 42.8 Other assets 10,752 12,328 11,967 13,544 Net gearing (%) 17.2 20.9 17.9 21.4 Total assets 26,259 29,072 27,709 30,481 Payables 1,417 1,372 1,404 1,614 Major assumptions ST.
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