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Perceptions of Sea-Level Rise and Managed Retreat: an Exploratory Survey

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Perceptions of Sea-Level Rise and Managed Retreat: an Exploratory Survey Perceptions of Sea-Level Rise and Managed Retreat: An Exploratory Survey Anthony Ryan1,2, Russell Gorddard1, Nick Abel1, Anne Leitch3, Kim Alexander1,4 and Russell Wise1 February 2012 1 2 CSIRO, Black Mountain Canberra, ACT, now Visiting Fellow, Fenner School of Environment and Society, ANU, Canberra, ACT, 3 4 CSIRO, Dutton Park, Brisbane, Queensland, now Royal Surf Life Saving Society, Sydney, NSW Enquiries should be addressed to: Anne Leitch Russell Wise CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences Ph: 07 3833 5652 Ph: 02 6242 1621 E‐mail: [email protected] E‐mail: [email protected] Copyright and Disclaimer © 2012 CSIRO. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. Important Disclaimer: CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Citation: Ryan, A., Gorddard, R., Abel, N., Leitch, A.M., Alexander, K.S. and Wise, R.M., 2011. Perceptions of Sea‐Level Rise Risk and the Assessment of Managed Retreat Policy: Results from an Exploratory Community Survey in Australia CSIRO: Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship. 54pp. Contents 1. SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 4 2. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 8 2.1 The risk to coastal communities from sea-level rise ................................................. 8 2.2 Coastal squeeze: coastal ecosystems between development and the deep blue sea ............................................................................................................................ 8 2.3 Adapting to the threat of sea-level rise ..................................................................... 9 2.4 The purpose and structure of this report ................................................................ 10 3. METHODS ........................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Process for recruiting survey participants ............................................................... 12 3.2 Survey participants ................................................................................................. 12 3.3 Survey methods ...................................................................................................... 12 3.4 Analysis................................................................................................................... 13 4. SURVEY RESULTS ............................................................................................ 14 4.1 Perceptions of sea-level rise .................................................................................. 14 4.1.1 Perceptions of the risk of sea-level rise .............................................................. 14 4.1.2 Comment on participants who reject the risk of sea-level rise ............................ 17 4.2 Perceptions of property ownership and risks from rising seas ............................... 18 4.2.1 Expectations about responses to the threat of inundation .................................. 18 4.2.2 Property rights and rising seas............................................................................ 20 4.2.3 The fairness of property buyers judging the risks of sea-level rise...................... 21 4.2.4 Who should pay to defend property from rising seas? ........................................ 22 4.2.5 Liability for losses from rising seas ..................................................................... 23 4.2.6 Compensation for property acquired to adapt to sea-level rise ........................... 24 4.2.7 Protection of public versus private land .............................................................. 25 4.3 Perceptions of the role of government .................................................................... 26 4.3.1 The use of public funds to prepare communities for sea-level rise ..................... 26 4.3.2 The use of public funds to protect private property ............................................. 27 4.3.3 The use of public funds to maintain coastal ecosystems in the face of climate change ................................................................................................................ 28 4.4 Perceptions of a retreat policy ................................................................................ 29 4.4.1 Will people invest in property if occupancy is linked to sea level? ...................... 30 4.4.2 Is it possible to design an acceptable retreat scheme? ....................................... 33 4.4.3 The influence of compensation on property purchase under a Conditional Occupancy Rights scheme ................................................................................. 35 4.4.4 Credible enforcement of occupancy conditions................................................... 36 4.4.5 Fairness of removal under a Conditional Occupancy Rights scheme ................. 37 4.4.6 The fairness of imposing future costs on owners ................................................ 38 4.4.7 Anger towards a Conditional Occupancy Rights scheme ................................... 39 4.4.8 Suggestions to improve a Conditional Occupancy Rights scheme ..................... 41 5. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS ................................................................... 43 6. REFERENCES .................................................................................................... 47 List of Figures Figure 1 Distribution of the scores for the SLR risk scale ........................................................... 15 Figure 2 Percentage agreeing with the statement, “If sea-level rise threatens a large number of coastal properties in the future, my expectation is that…”. .................................................. 19 Figure 3 Percentage agreeing with the statement, “When you purchase residential property, do you believe your right to the land is…”. ................................................................................ 20 Figure 4 Responses to statement “Is it fair for individuals to be responsible for judging the risks of rising seas when investing in property?” .......................................................................... 21 Figure 5 Responses to the statement “Property owners should pay the costs of defending their properties against sea-level rise” ......................................................................................... 22 Figure 6 Responses to statement “Homeowners should be liable for loss of their property from rising sea levels” ................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 7 Responses to statement “Homeowners should be compensated if their property is acquired by the government due to sea-level rise” .............................................................. 24 Figure 8 Responses to statement “It is more important to protect private property than to protect the beach” ............................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 9 Responses to statement “Governments should spend money to help communities prepare for sea-level rise” .................................................................................................... 26 Figure 10 Responses to statement “Governments should spend money to protect private property from rising seas”..................................................................................................... 27 Figure 11 Responses to statement “Governments should ensure that coastal wetlands, dunes and beaches are maintained in the face of sea-level rise” ................................................... 28 Figure 12 The diagram and text used in the online survey to describe the conditional occupancy scheme. ................................................................................................................................ 29 Figure 13 Responses to question “If you were planning to buy a property near the coast, would you consider buying a property with a Conditional Occupancy Rights scheme, that is under the condition that you had to vacate the property if the sea rises to a predefined level?” ... 30 Figure 14 Responses to question “Under the right conditions would you be supportive of a Conditional Occupancy Rights Scheme?” ............................................................................ 33 Figure 15 Responses to statement “It is possible to design a fair and just scheme for governments to acquire residential property” ......................................................................
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