Experimental Evidence on the Economics of Rural Electrification*
Experimental Evidence on the Economics of Rural Electrification* Kenneth Lee, University of Chicago Edward Miguel, University of California, Berkeley and NBER Catherine Wolfram, University of California, Berkeley and NBER April 2019 ABSTRACT We present results from an experiment that randomized the expansion of electric grid infrastructure in rural Kenya. Electricity distribution is a canonical example of a natural monopoly. Our experimental variation in the number of connections, combined with administrative cost data, reveals considerable scale economies, as hypothesized. Randomized price offers indicate that demand for connections falls sharply with price, and is far lower than anticipated by policymakers. Among newly connected households, average electricity consumption is very low, implying low consumer surplus. Moreover, we do not find meaningful medium-run impacts on economic and non-economic outcomes. We discuss implications for current efforts to increase rural electrification in Kenya, and highlight how credit constraints, bureaucratic red tape, low reliability, leakage, and other factors may affect interpretation of the results. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by the Berkeley Energy and Climate Institute, the Blum Center for Developing Economies, the Center for Effective Global Action, the Development Impact Lab (USAID Cooperative Agreements AID-OAA-A-13-00002 and AIDOAA-A-12-00011, part of the USAID Higher Education Solutions Network), the International Growth Centre, the U.C. Center for Energy and Environmental Economics, the Weiss Family Program Fund for Research in Development Economics, the World Bank DIME i2i Fund, and an anonymous donor. We thank Francis Meyo, Susanna Berkouwer, Victor Bwire, Elisa Cascardi, Corinne Cooper, Stephen Harrell, Eric Hsu, Radhika Kannan, Anna Kasimatis, Tomas Monárrez, Emma Smith, Felipe Vial, and Catherine Wright for excellent research assistance, as well as colleagues at Innovations for Poverty Action Kenya and Remit Kenya.
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