Report No: 196, January 2015 THE ECONOMIC EFFEECTS OF SYRIAN REFUGEES ON TURKEY: A SYNTHETIC MODELLING ORTADOĞU STRATEJİK ARAŞTIRMALAR MERKEZİ CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN STRATEGIC STUDIES ORSAM Süleyman Nazif Sokak No: 12-B Çankaya / Ankara Tel: 0 (312) 430 26 09 Fax: 0 (312) 430 39 48 www.orsam.org.tr,
[email protected] THE ECONOMIC EFFEECTS OF SYRIAN REFUGEES ON TURKEY: A SYNTHETIC MODELLING ORSAM Report No: 196 January 2015 ISBN: 978-605-4615-98-8 Ankara - TURKEY ORSAM © 2015 Content of this report is copyrighted to ORSAM. Except reasonable and partial quotation and use under the Act No. 5846, Law on Intellectual and Artistic Works, via proper citation, the content may not be used or re- published without prior permission by ORSAM. The views expressed in this report reflect only the opinions of its authors and do not represent the institutional opinion of ORSAM. Prepared by: Assoc. Prof. Harun Öztürkler, ORSAM Economy Advisor, Kırıkkale University Assoc. Prof. Türkmen Göksel, Ankara University ORSAM 2 Report No: 196, January 2015 Contents Preface..................................................................................................................................................................5 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 7 I. THE SYNTHETIC MODEL: ESTIMATION AND FINDINGS ..................................................... 8 1.1. The Model ...........................................................................................................................................