U.S. Communications Service Provider Quarterly

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U.S. Communications Service Provider Quarterly Telecom Technology and Services Group U.S. Communications Service Provider Quarterly Spring 2020 Vol. 10, No. 2 IN THIS ISSUE 2 Introduction and Sub Sector Definitions 3 U.S. Summary Comments: Public Markets 4 Public Market Summary Charts 1-6 5 U.S. Communications Service Provider Stocks: M&A Summary Charts 1-2 6 Announced Transactions 7 Announced Transactions with Revenue Multiples 8 Sub Sector Analysis: Large Cap Telecom Charts 1-6 9 Sub Sector Analysis: Alternative Telecom Charts 1-6 10 Sub Sector Analysis: Hosted and Managed Services Charts 1-6 11 Sub Sector Analysis: ILEC and Diversified ILEC Charts 1-6 Investment Banking and Advisory Services 12 Sub Sector Analysis: Cable and Video Charts 1-6 FOCUS Investment Banking LLC is a leading investment bank 13 FOCUS Telecom Technology and with specialized telecom technology and services expertise, Services Team concentrating on providing highly tailored services to emerging middle market and larger organizations in this sector: • Mergers & Acquisition Advisory • Corporate Development Consulting • Strategic Partnering & Alliances • Capital Financing, Debt & Equity • Corporate Valuations U.S. Communications Service Provider Quarterly By Richard Pierce, FOCUS Managing Director and Telecom Technology and Services Team Leader FOCUS believes that the need for communications ser- • Has a breadth of knowledge that covers most segments vices has never been greater. Large enterprises, small and of the telecom industry, medium sized businesses and individuals have all come • Has seasoned bankers with decades of telecom industry to rely upon ubiquitous access to voice, video and data experience, services to run their day-to-day activities. Furthermore, the importance of Communications Service Providers • Has a proven transaction methodology for delivering (CSPs) appears poised to increase further as they begin results, to enable a variety of new services ranging from hosted • Is equally comfortable with buy side and sell side M&A, PBX and videoconferencing platforms to in-home secu- rity and energy management solutions. Access to capital • Leverages an experienced team of research professionals, and the benefits of scale will mean that a small number of • Has a national presence with coverage of both east and large companies will continue to dominate certain areas west coasts. such as mobile wireless and video. However, FOCUS con- tinues to see opportunities for middle market CSPs. While Sub Sector Definitions not as large as the industry giants, they continue to thrive by developing innovative business models that share one Large Cap: Large, diversified communications service pro- or more characteristics such as capital efficiency, cus- viders that control a significant number of former RBOC tomer responsiveness, an advanced technology platform access lines and/or have a nationwide wireless operation. and a focus on an underserved industry vertical or geogra- Alternative Telecom: Competitive carriers that primarily phy. Furthermore, it is often the middle market CSPs that provide basic voice, data and transport services to busi- point the direction for the future of the industry. FOCUS nesses and other telecom service providers. is proud of its commitment to the CSP sector and we are excited about the prospects for middle market companies Hosted & Managed Services: Companies that provide in this space. hosted VoIP telecom services as well as additional hosted offerings such as audio and video conferencing. The FOCUS Telecom Technology and Services group con- ILEC & Diversified ILEC: Non-RBOC incumbent carri- sists of two professionals with a combined 30+ years of ers, many of which have branched out into other sectors of transaction experience across a wide variety of telecommu- communications services. nications-related companies. The FOCUS Telecom team is uniquely qualified to help middle market clients reach their Cable & Video: Incumbent cable service providers, satel- strategic objectives because the group: lite video providers and competitive video providers whose core business is providing video services to residential • Devotes significant senior level resources to executing customers. transactions for lower middle market clients, 2 www.focusbankers.com /telecom | Atlanta • Los Angeles Metro • Washington, DC Metro U.S. Summary Comments Public Markets The Hosted and Managed Services sub sector is also the Not surprisingly given the current state of the public only sub sector in the CSPI to deliver a positive return over markets, it was a challenging three-month period for the the past 12 months with a gain of 4.9%. Once again, Ring- FOCUS Communications Service Provider Index (CSPI). Central was the main engine for the sub sector’s growth The sector plummeted just shy of 20% over this time as the stock nearly doubled in value over the past year. frame, which was roughly in-line with the 20.0% drop in Multiple performance for the sub sector was mixed. The the S&P 500 but greater than the 14.2% drop in the NAS- revenue multiple declined a full turn from 8.6x a year ago DAQ over the corresponding time frame. The situation looks to 7.6x at the end of the current reporting period, while the a bit better when measured over the full year period. The EBITDA multiple increased from 78.8x to 120.5x over the CSPI was down only 9.3% in the past 12 months, although same time period. once again this underperforms both the S&P 500 (down 8.8%) and the NASDAQ (down 0.4%). Sector multiples ILEC and Diversified ILEC are lower than they were in the year-ago period, although After turning in a positive return for the winter reporting the drop is not as dramatic as we might have feared. The period, the ILEC & Diversified ILEC sub sector managed sector revenue multiple dipped from 2.7x t0 2.5x, while the to give up all of these gains (and then some) with a decline sector EBITDA multiple fell from 8.0x to 7.2x. of 20.5% in the spring. Even with these declines there were still some reasons for optimism as both Consolidated Large Cap Communications and Cincinnati Bell posted strong gains The Large Cap sub sector suffered a dramatic 19.6% of 17.3% and 39.8%, respectively. However, this was not decline in our spring reporting period. Verizon was the enough to stave off the nearly 60% decline at Frontier standout performer with a drop of “only” 12.5%, while Communications as the company marched inexorably AT&T and CenturyLink both fell more than 20%. The towards a bankruptcy filing. The sub sector’s performance sub sector is also down 8.5% year-over-year, with the sub over the full year period is even more dismal with a decline sector’s steepest decline coming from CenturyLink (down of 39.2%. Frontier was once again the worst performing 21.1%). Sub sector multiples fell from 2.5x revenue and company over this period, but Consolidated Communica- 7.2x EBITDA at this time last year to 2.4x revenue and tions and Telephone & Data Systems also suffered sig- 6.7x EBITDA at the end of the current period. nificant losses. The lone bright spot was Cincinnati Bell, which was up more than 50% as the result of a bidding Alternative Telecom war between rival take-private suitors. Even with the sub The Alternative Telecom sub sector actually managed to sector’s steep declines, multiples have remained fairly con- eke out a 1.9% gain in the past three months. However, stant. The sub sector revenue multiple was unchanged from this increase was entirely the result of a 24.6% jump at a year ago at 1.7x, while the EBITDA multiple dipped Cogent Communications. GTT and Uniti, however, were slightly from 5.2x to 5.0x over the past year. both hit much harder with declines of 30.0% and 26.6%, respectively. The sub sector is also down more than 20% Cable and Video over the past 12 months. Unfortunately, a gain of more The last sub sector to be addressed was also the portion of than 50% at Cogent Communications was not sufficient the CSPI that was hit the hardest in the recent downturn. to overcome losses at all of the other companies in the sub The Cable and Video sub sector was down 23.6% this sector of between 46% and 77%. Sub sector multiples period as every single company in the index save one (Cable closed out the period at 4.3x revenue and 9.6x EBITDA. One) suffered a double-digit loss. Dish Network and WOW Both of these are lower than year-ago multiples of 5.0x were particularly hard hit as they shed 43.6% and 35.8% revenue and 11.9x EBITDA. of their values, respectively. Sub sector performance is not nearly as bleak when measured over the past 12 months, Hosted and Managed Services although it is still down 12.4% for the year. Cable One and The Hosted and Managed Services sub sector was the only Charter Communications are both up sharply year-over- other sub sector in the CSPI to end up in the black in the year, but a 14.0% drop at Comcast as well as significant midst of the recent market turmoil. The sub sector was up declines at Dish Network and WOW dragged the sub sector 3.1% in the past three months driven by a 5.1% gain at into the red. Sub sector multiples are down fairly steeply Bandwidth and a 25.6% gain at RingCentral. However, from where they were a year ago and closed out the period gains were not broad-based as all of the other four compa- at 2.5x revenue (down from 3.1x a year ago) and 8.0x nies in the index were in negative territory for the period.
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