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Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary

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Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary December 2020 Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Introduction Figure 1: Ontario Line Alignment Map This document is the Preliminary Design Business What is a Preliminary Case Summary for the Ontario Line. The Ontario Design Business Case? Line is one of four priority subway projects under The Preliminary Design development in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Business Case (PDBC) is the second business case As shown in Figure 1, the line will run from the in Metrolinx’s Business Ontario Science Centre, at Don Mills Road and Case Lifecycle and Eglinton Avenue E, south to Pape Station on Stage Gate Process Line 2 and then connect to the downtown core The PDBC is focused on: at both Queen and Osgoode Stations, before continuing west to Exhibition/Ontario Place. • advancing the recommended option from the Initial Business Case Disclaimer on COVID-19 (IBC) to a higher level of design and development Readers should note that the analytic models (typically 10% to 30%+ used in this business case draw on multiple level of design); datasets collected and refined prior to the • documenting the benefits, spread of COVID-19. As a result, they do not costs, trade-offs, and risks model the impact or potential long-term of the project to advance outcomes of the current global pandemic. There it to the next stage of is currently insufficient data or information delivery readiness; and available to allow the models employed in this • supporting required business case to reasonably analyze the impact approvals to continue to of the COVID-19 outbreak on this project or advance procurement for the models to be used to comment on the and construction. expected changes in the forecasts described in this business case. Metrolinx is currently exploring the potential long-term impacts of COVID-19, however the specific impacts of COVID-19 on Ontario Line have not been forecast. As of the date of distribution of this business case, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a material impact on the movement of people and goods, including travel patterns and behaviours. Readers of this business case should consider its findings in this context. 2 3 Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary The Ontario Line will provide 15.6 km of new rapid transit in Toronto... 3.7 km at-grade on 3.1 km elevated shared corridors 8.8 km underground New maintence & storage facility To maintain a modern fleet of up to 44 trains 15 stations ... increasing capacity With connections to Fast and frequent to meet demand on existing and in-delivery subway services ...and to Toronto’s opening day and rapid transit... extensive surface into the future... Three GO rail Lines Trains per hour network. Peak (2041) 40 • Lakeshore East • Lakeshore West • Stouffville Train lengths of 80 to 100 metres Top speeds of The Ontario Line will provide capacity 80km/h* to meet demand on opening day Streetcars and into the future beyond 2041 The Ontario Line At 10 Ontario Line stations trains will have a max speed of 80 km/h and will be able to travel TTC Subway Lines uninterrupted between • Line 1 stations without • Line 2 encountering • Line 5 (Eglinton Crosstown) gridlock or intersections. Noise mitigation Bus services Three major along the corridor * Average speed is river crossings At 12 Ontario Line Stations estimated to be 30km/ hr including dwell time and acceleration and deceleration between stations. 4 5 Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary The problem Issues The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area This problem is underpinned (GTHA) is experiencing unprecedented growth, by three critical issues which calls for corresponding expansion of that impact travellers and its transportation network. Expanding the impede regional growth. transit system is essential to connect people to schools, jobs and their communities. With this growth, transit and road traffic congestion are expected to worsen and The population of the Greater Crowding and Capacity commute times will become longer, with Toronto and Hamilton area is negative impacts to Ontario’s quality set to increase 41% by 2041. Line 1 is overcrowded of life, environment, and economy. =1million and cannot, alone, support continued growth in the downtown core. Increasing the transit network’s capacity into Coverage and Network downtown Toronto, other major employment 2031 modelled Resilience scenario shows areas, and neighbourhoods throughout the that at AM Peak City is critical to unlocking the GTHA’s potential The downtown core has limited hour, Bloor - Yonge rapid transit service - it is only southbound as a leading international metropolitan subway volumes region and maintaining the GTHA’s appeal served by Line 1 and GO exceed capacity to people and major employers. rail. This means even small disruptions can significantly Under such pressure, a quick and 40% of all jobs will be in Toronto, impact travel times. Community Growth making it the largest employment efficient delivery of an expansion of centre and engine of economic and Development the rapid transit network is critical. growth in the region The existing rapid transit network underserved priority communities and does not provide direct east-west connections where significant and rapid growth is occurring. 6 7 Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Why is the Ontario Line a solution to this problem? Coverage and Network Resilience The Ontario Line has been designed and planned to make use of advanced driverless trains, subway tunnels, existing rail corridors, and elevated structures to provide extensive rapid transit coverage in the City of Toronto. This combination of corridor types and advanced technologies will reduce costs and expedite the delivery of the line. The Ontario The Ontario Line creates The Ontario Line connects This means customers Line’s design has been optimized to directly a more resilient and directly to three GO rail have expanded choice to address the three key issues: crowding and integrated network. lines, Line 1, Line 2, Line access downtown Toronto capacity, coverage and network resilience, 5 (Eglinton Crosstown), and other key destinations and community growth and development. and multiple bus and - even when other parts of streetcar routes. the network face planned or unplanned disruptions. Community Growth Crowding and Capacity and Development The Ontario Line adds Daily demand into the By directly linking to Pape The Ontario Line The Ontario Line will It connects major fast, frequent, and downtown core and Station, the Ontario Line leverages existing make use of tunnels, development sites and reliable service that across the city requires can draw demand off corridors to connect existing rail corridors, areas that have undergone attracts new travellers a level of capacity that of Line 1, which in turn more communities and elevated structures rapid growth without and reduces crowding on can only be delivered by frees up capacity on this underserved by today’s to traverse Toronto’s rapid transit to the east other lines and routes. subways and railways. line to accommodate rapid transit network. geography to connect and west of downtown. future growth and communities, including low- improves the experience income and marginalized of existing customers communities, underserved across the network. by rapid transit today. 8 9 Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Evolution: IBC to PDBC Figure 2: Ontario Line Evolution from IBC to PDBC Scope Update Background Since the release of the Initial Business Case (IBC) In developing the PDBC, in 2019, Metrolinx has progressed the design Metrolinx has re-estimated of the Ontario Line. Metrolinx has developed all costs to reflect design a “Reference Concept Design” (RCD) for the refinements and conducted further ridership, revenue, Ontario Line (shown in Figure 2) that builds upon and benefits forecasting. the IBC and optimizes the project to improve its benefits while managing costs and delivery risk. As a result, PDBC benefits and costs vary from those This RCD is used to: presented in the IBC. • define a comprehensive and deliverable scope for the project; • determine a budget and construction schedule for use in project approvals; • define benefits and how they are realized; and • identify key risks and identify ways to mitigate them. 10 11 Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary PDBCs compare multiple variants of Table 1: Ontario Line Evolution from IBC to PDBC preferred option identified at the IBC stage across the four cases in order to: PDBC Alignment with IBC PDBC Alignment with Refined Analysis Scope • Demonstrate that multiple variants Operating Concept Operating Concept were considered and analyzed; Train Size 100m (five car) trains 80m (four car) trains • Confirm that an optimal variant has been 750 passenger per train capacity 600 passenger per train capacity identified for further development; and • Identify key lessons learned to inform the continued development of the option through Frequency 40 trains per hour (TPH) in peak 34 TPH (2030-2041), 40 TPH (2041 on) in peak to the Full Business Case (FBC) stage. 12-24 TPH off-peak 24 TPH in off-peak This PDBC includes two operating variants (described in Table 1) that were developed based Rationale for Inclusion Demonstrates how the IBC Explores how the benefits and on lessons learned since the completion of the IBC: operating concept performs on costs of the Ontario Line can the IBC operating concept and a Refined Operating the optimized alignment be further optimized with a refined operating concept Concept. These options were included in the PDBC to explore benefits and trade-offs of different train sizes and phased service delivery.
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