Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary December 2020 Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary Ontario Line Preliminary Design Business Case Summary

Introduction Figure 1: Ontario Line Alignment Map

This document is the Preliminary Design Business What is a Preliminary Case Summary for the Ontario Line. The Ontario Design Business Case? Line is one of four priority subway projects under The Preliminary Design development in the Greater Area (GTA). Business Case (PDBC) is the second business case As shown in Figure 1, the line will run from the in ’s Business Ontario Science Centre, at Don Mills Road and Case Lifecycle and E, south to on Stage Gate Process Line 2 and then connect to the downtown core The PDBC is focused on: at both Queen and Osgoode Stations, before continuing west to Exhibition/. • advancing the recommended option from the Initial Business Case Disclaimer on COVID-19 (IBC) to a higher level of design and development Readers should note that the analytic models (typically 10% to 30%+ used in this business case draw on multiple level of design); datasets collected and refined prior to the • documenting the benefits, spread of COVID-19. As a result, they do not costs, trade-offs, and risks model the impact or potential long-term of the project to advance outcomes of the current global pandemic. There it to the next stage of is currently insufficient data or information delivery readiness; and available to allow the models employed in this • supporting required business case to reasonably analyze the impact approvals to continue to of the COVID-19 outbreak on this project or advance procurement for the models to be used to comment on the and construction. expected changes in the forecasts described in this business case. Metrolinx is currently exploring the potential long-term impacts of COVID-19, however the specific impacts of COVID-19 on Ontario Line have not been forecast. As of the date of distribution of this business case, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a material impact on the movement of people and goods, including travel patterns and behaviours. Readers of this business case should consider its findings in this context.

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The Ontario Line will provide 15.6 km of new in Toronto...

3.7 km at-grade on 3.1 km elevated shared corridors 8.8 km underground

New maintence & storage facility

To maintain a modern fleet of up to 44 trains 15 stations

... increasing capacity With connections to Fast and frequent to meet demand on existing and in-delivery subway services ...and to Toronto’s opening day and rapid transit... extensive surface into the future... Three GO rail Lines Trains per hour network. Peak (2041) 40 • Lakeshore East • Lakeshore West • Stouffville Train lengths of 80 to 100 metres

Top speeds of The Ontario Line will provide capacity 80km/h* to meet demand on opening day Streetcars and into the future beyond 2041 The Ontario Line At 10 Ontario Line stations trains will have a max speed of 80 km/h and will be able to travel TTC Subway Lines uninterrupted between • Line 1 stations without • Line 2 encountering • Line 5 (Eglinton Crosstown) gridlock or intersections. Noise mitigation Bus services Three major along the corridor * Average speed is river crossings At 12 Ontario Line Stations estimated to be 30km/ hr including dwell time and acceleration and deceleration between stations.

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The problem Issues

The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area This problem is underpinned (GTHA) is experiencing unprecedented growth, by three critical issues which calls for corresponding expansion of that impact travellers and its transportation network. Expanding the impede regional growth. transit system is essential to connect people to schools, jobs and their communities.

With this growth, transit and road traffic congestion are expected to worsen and The population of the Greater Crowding and Capacity commute times will become longer, with Toronto and Hamilton area is negative impacts to Ontario’s quality set to increase 41% by 2041. Line 1 is overcrowded of life, environment, and economy. =1million and cannot, alone, support continued growth in the downtown core.

Increasing the transit network’s capacity into Coverage and Network , other major employment 2031 modelled Resilience scenario shows areas, and neighbourhoods throughout the that at AM Peak City is critical to unlocking the GTHA’s potential The downtown core has limited hour, Bloor - Yonge rapid transit service - it is only southbound as a leading international metropolitan subway volumes region and maintaining the GTHA’s appeal served by Line 1 and GO exceed capacity to people and major employers. rail. This means even small disruptions can significantly Under such pressure, a quick and 40% of all jobs will be in Toronto, impact travel times. Community Growth making it the largest employment efficient delivery of an expansion of centre and engine of economic and Development the rapid transit network is critical. growth in the region The existing rapid transit network underserved priority communities and does not provide direct east-west connections where significant and rapid growth is occurring.

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Why is the Ontario Line a solution to this problem? Coverage and Network Resilience

The Ontario Line has been designed and planned to make use of advanced driverless trains, subway tunnels, existing rail corridors, and elevated structures to provide extensive rapid transit coverage in the City of Toronto. This combination of corridor types and advanced technologies will reduce costs and expedite the delivery of the line. The Ontario The Ontario Line creates The Ontario Line connects This means customers Line’s design has been optimized to directly a more resilient and directly to three GO rail have expanded choice to address the three key issues: crowding and integrated network. lines, Line 1, Line 2, Line access downtown Toronto capacity, coverage and network resilience, 5 (Eglinton Crosstown), and other key destinations and community growth and development. and multiple bus and - even when other parts of streetcar routes. the network face planned or unplanned disruptions. Community Growth Crowding and Capacity and Development

The Ontario Line adds Daily demand into the By directly linking to Pape The Ontario Line The Ontario Line will It connects major fast, frequent, and downtown core and Station, the Ontario Line leverages existing make use of tunnels, development sites and reliable service that across the city requires can draw demand off corridors to connect existing rail corridors, areas that have undergone attracts new travellers a level of capacity that of Line 1, which in turn more communities and elevated structures rapid growth without and reduces crowding on can only be delivered by frees up capacity on this underserved by today’s to traverse Toronto’s rapid transit to the east other lines and routes. subways and railways. line to accommodate rapid transit network. geography to connect and west of downtown. future growth and communities, including low- improves the experience income and marginalized of existing customers communities, underserved across the network. by rapid transit today.

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Ontario Line Evolution:

IBC to PDBC Figure 2: Ontario Line Evolution from IBC to PDBC

Scope Update Background Since the release of the Initial Business Case (IBC) In developing the PDBC, in 2019, Metrolinx has progressed the design Metrolinx has re-estimated of the Ontario Line. Metrolinx has developed all costs to reflect design a “Reference Concept Design” (RCD) for the refinements and conducted further ridership, revenue, Ontario Line (shown in Figure 2) that builds upon and benefits forecasting. the IBC and optimizes the project to improve its benefits while managing costs and delivery risk. As a result, PDBC benefits and costs vary from those This RCD is used to: presented in the IBC. • define a comprehensive and deliverable scope for the project;

• determine a budget and construction schedule for use in project approvals;

• define benefits and how they are realized; and

• identify key risks and identify ways to mitigate them.

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PDBCs compare multiple variants of Table 1: Ontario Line Evolution from IBC to PDBC preferred option identified at the IBC stage across the four cases in order to: PDBC Alignment with IBC PDBC Alignment with Refined Analysis Scope • Demonstrate that multiple variants Operating Concept Operating Concept were considered and analyzed; Train Size 100m (five car) trains 80m (four car) trains • Confirm that an optimal variant has been 750 passenger per train capacity 600 passenger per train capacity identified for further development; and

• Identify key lessons learned to inform the continued development of the option through Frequency 40 trains per hour (TPH) in peak 34 TPH (2030-2041), 40 TPH (2041 on) in peak to the Full Business Case (FBC) stage. 12-24 TPH off-peak 24 TPH in off-peak This PDBC includes two operating variants

(described in Table 1) that were developed based Rationale for Inclusion Demonstrates how the IBC Explores how the benefits and on lessons learned since the completion of the IBC: operating concept performs on costs of the Ontario Line can the IBC operating concept and a Refined Operating the optimized alignment be further optimized with a refined operating concept Concept. These options were included in the PDBC to explore benefits and trade-offs of different train sizes and phased service delivery. The results of this Alignment and Stations 15 stations, each with a 100m platform along an optimized alignment (including track underground and on shared corridors exploration are outlined in the Strategic, Economic, and elevated structures) with approximately 26-30 minute Financial, and Deliverability and Operations Cases runtime between Ontario Science Centre and Exhibition and will be used to inform future planning, design, Interchanges with local and rapid transit network at Science and project development at the FBC stage. Centre, Pape, Osgoode, and Queen stations

The IBC Operating Concept uses 100 Cross platform interchange with GO rail services at East Harbour between the Ontario Line and the Stouffville and Lakeshore East lines. m trains with a frequency of 40 trains Interchange with Lakeshore West express services at Exhibition Station per hour during the peak period.

The Refined Operating Conceptuses 80 m Land Use 2041 market land use projection, updated since the IBC to reflect new census data and land use forecasts. trains and a phased service plan, which begins with 34 trains per hour in the peak period and deploys additional service to respond to ridership growth over time. In this phasing plan, Fares Use of TTC Fares for Ontario Line (the assumed TTC and GO Transit it is assumed that a 40 train per hour service Discounted Double Fare from the IBC was not included) level would be deployed by 2041, comparable to the IBC Operating Concept option.

Transit Network Updated GO Expansion On-Corridor Plan

Updated rapid transit network assumptions

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Strategic Case Summary Strong Connections

The Ontario Line will transform mobility in Overview Toronto and the broader region and realize The Metrolinx Strategic Case nine key benefits across three outcomes: articulates how a proposed investment supports or achieves regional plans, Nine Key Benefits of the Ontario Line policies, and goals.

The PDBC summary presents 1. Improved access to transit key performance metrics across the nine core Ontario Strong 2. Increased access to economic activity Line strategic benefits Connections

3. Support a synergistic relationship between transit and city building

4. Improved travel time and reliability

Complete 1. Improved access 2. Increased access to 3. Support a synergistic Travel 5. Improved comfort and safety to transit economic activity relationship between Experiences transit and city building 6. A more resilient and integrated By 2041, up to 388,000 On average, 47,000 transport network trips could be made on the additional Toronto jobs The Ontario Line will Ontario Line each day and could be accessible within a improve rapid transit 7. Moving people with less energy and reduced emissions over 255,000 people could 45-minute transit ride to city connectivity between live within a 10-minute walk residents. Looking more residential, commercial, Sustainable and Healthy 8. Improved quality of life and public health of an Ontario Line station. specifically at lower-income and employment centres Communities residents and the access and will also directly serve they currently experience, key locations planned 9. Unlocking jobs and economic development the increase would be for Transit Oriented even greater, with 57,000 Community development. additional jobs within a 45-minute transit ride. When delivered alongside Transit Oriented Community projects, the Ontario Line could serve an additional 52,000 to 55,000 trips a day.

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Complete Sustainable & Travel Experiences Healthy Communities

4. Improved travel 5. Improved comfort 6. A more resilient 7. Moving people 8. Improved quality of 9. Unlocking jobs and time and reliability and safety and integrated with less energy and life and public health economic development transportation network reduced emissions On average, customers The Ontario Line is forecast The Ontario Line could The Ontario Line is are forecast to save seven to attract demand off other The Ontario Line could The Ontario Line could improve local air quality expected to support minutes of travel time per crowded lines, which in connect to over 40 other reduce overall energy and reduce collisions by up over 4,700 jobs per trip, with some customers turn will increase comfort transit lines/routes to build expended for transport by to 1,200 over the project year between 2020 and saving significantly more and safety across the a more resilient network up to 7.2 million litres of life cycle by taking over 2030, with continued time. For example, a entire Toronto network. that can better respond automobile fuel every year. 28,000 cars off the road employment after 2030 trip from Thorncliffe Line 1 could be 12% to to delays and disruptions, This is the same as nearly each day and encouraging for the operations and Park to 15% less crowded, Bloor- and also provide customers 120,000 fill ups at the pump use of active travel to access maintenance of the line. could save 15 minutes. Yonge Station could be with expanded choice. per year. This reduction transit. Travellers who 15 to 22% less crowded, in automobile travel is switch to rapid transit from Combined, this totals 2.7 and Union Station could As part of an integrated estimated to amount to driving tend to walk more million minutes across all be 14% less crowded. network, the Ontario Line over 14,000 tonnes of and realize health benefits travellers every weekday. could attract 60,000 to greenhouse gas emission from a more active lifestyle. This means that Line 1 - 62,000 new transit trips reductions per year. including the Yonge North a day and enable 50,000 Subway Extension - will more transfers between have significantly reduced rapid transit lines each day. crowding and travellers will benefit from reduced congestion at Union Station.

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Equitable Distribution A report issued by the University These benefits are largely dependent of Toronto1 in 2019 that compared on the Ontario Line extending beyond of Benefits the socio-economic distribution Downtown Toronto, including north of benefits of the Ontario Line of the Don Valley as well as to areas compared to business as usual or served east and west of the downtown 2 Equity refers to the fair and appropriate a no build scenario noted that: that will benefit greatly by a new rapid distribution of impacts (benefits and costs) transit connection in complement to • The benefits of the Ontario existing surface transit options. and is an important factor in the planning of Line are forecasted to be fairly transit investments. The Ontario Line has been evenly spread across all levels of developed to take account the needs of the socioeconomic status in the GTHA, GTHA population now and in the future and with concentrations specifically the strategic outcomes of the Ontario Line among low-income populations; outlined above are aimed at delivering strong connections, complete travel experiences • In neighbourhoods most and sustainable and healthy communities. significantly benefiting from the Ontario Line investment (those within 5 km of the transit line), benefits are also concentrated among visible minorities and recent immigrants; and

• Overall, the distribution of benefits is assessed to be equitable, in that they do concentrate among population groups more likely to depend on public transit for their daily mobility needs, especially lower-income populations.

1 Farber, Dr. S, Allen, J. University of Toronto. 2019. The Ontario Line: Socioeconomic distribution of travel time and accessibility benefits

2 As defined in the IBC. With identical forecasted land-use patterns, but different travel demand and travel time projections, relative to this PDBC.

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Economic Case Summary PDBC Alignment with IBC Operating Concept

$8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000

Overview When monetized, the core economic Benefits Expected Net benefits of the Ontario Line are Present Value (NPV) The Metrolinx Economic Case $10,230 to $11,310 applies international and valued at $9.9 to $11.3 billion. $540 million local best practice for socio- economic appraisal to answer Costs the following key questions: Expected Benefit to $9,910 to $10,550 • What does the investment Cost Ratio (BCR) cost in economic terms? 1.05

• What benefits will the Economic Impact (million 2020 CAD $) investment realize? $7.7 to $8.9 billion in $100 to $120 million • Do benefits exceed costs? transit user travel time in automobile operating savings for transit users cost savings. PDBC Alignment with Refined Operating Concept on the Ontario Line and the broader network. $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000

Ontario Line Program Costs Expected Net Benefits Total lifecycle costs Present Value (NPV) (60 year) in 2020 CAD$ $9,900 to $10,960 $500 million

Incremental Capital Costs $8.3 to $9.1 billion $500 million due to a Up to $1.5 to $1.7 billion Costs Expected Benefit to reduction in automobile in benefit to drivers and $9,610 to $10,260 Cost Ratio (BCR) collisions resulting in death automobile passengers 1.05 Incremental Operating Costs or injury in the GTHA and from decongested roads Economic Impact (million 2020 CAD $) $1.35 to $1.5 billion increased physical activity. and reduced travel times.

The Ontario Line has a benefit cost ratio of 1.05 – this means that for every $1.00 invested in the Ontario Line it will generate up to $1.05 $20 million due to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. of socio-economic benefit for Toronto.

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Financial Case Summary PDBC Alignment with IBC Operating Concept +$4,000

The Ontario Line is a significant and historic Revenue $2,430 +$2,000 Overview investment in the City of Toronto and the broader region’s transit network. Bus and Streetcar Operating Savings $710 The Metrolinx Financial $0 Case assesses the overall The discounted net financial impact of the Capital Costs -$8,600 financial impact of a proposed Ontario Line is anticipated to be -$7.5 to -$7.7 investment, including: -$2,000 billion, which is equal to the sum of costs minus Operating Costs -$2,280 • How much will the incremental revenue and operating cost savings. investment cost to build, Total Net Financial Impact -$7,740 -$4,000 operate, and maintain? How is the Ontario Line Funded? Revenue Operating Cost Ratio 1.6 • How will the investment When the priority transit projects were Revenue / (operating costs - bus and -$6,000 impact transit revenues? streetcar operating savings) announced by the Province in 2019, the

• How will the investment preliminary funding announcement for Ontario Financial Impact (million 2020 CAD $) -$8,000 be funded? Line was $10.9 billion. A project funding • What is the net financial and financing approach is currently being impact of the investment? developed with all levels of government. -$10,000 The Ontario Line was nominated for federal funding under the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP) in July 2019. PDBC Alignment with The Province continues to advocate for the +$4,000 federal government to commit to a funding Refined Operating Concept contribution of at least 40% of the capital costs for the Ontario Line. In support of +$2,000 the nomination, the Ontario Line Initial Revenue $2,360 Business Case was submitted to the federal Bus and Streetcar Operating Savings $710 $0 government for review. Additional business case analysis, including this Preliminary Design Capital Costs -$8,420 Business Case, will also be provided. -$2,000 Operating Costs -$2,130

-$4,000 Total Net Financial Impact -$7,470

Revenue Operating Cost Ratio 1.7 -$6,000 Revenue / (operating costs - bus and streetcar operating savings)

Financial Impact (million 2020 CAD $) -$8,000

-$10,000

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Deliverability & Operations Case The Ontario Line is being delivered as three separate public-private partnership (P3) procurement contracts. Overview How will the Ontario Line be implemented? The Metrolinx Deliverability Rolling Stock, Systems, Operations, and Operations Case and Maintenance (RSSOM) demonstrates that the Ontario Line Delivery Model proposed investment can A 30-year-term design-build-finance-operate- be delivered successfully Metrolinx is delivering the Ontario Line through and key risks can be maintain contract for the Ontario Line. a Public-Private Partnership (P3) that is cost- managed. It focuses on This includes all rail track and systems, key effective, efficient and accountable. P3s are the following questions: operating responsibilities for the Ontario an innovative way of financing and procuring Line, and providing fleet and a maintenance • How will the project be large, public infrastructure projects. managed and governed? and storage facility. This contractor will work collaboratively with the TTC and integrate • What approach will P3s make the best use of private sector resources be used to deliver and and expertise and transfer project risks to fare equipment with the PRESTO system. procure the investment? the private sector, which is accountable for providing on-time, on-budget project delivery. • What are key project risks and can they be mitigated? Southern Civil, Stations, and Tunnels

A design-build-finance contract for the southern segment of the Ontario Line, from Exhibition/Ontario Place to the Don Yard portal Roles and Responsibilities for Delivery and Operations (west of the ). This includes seven Metrolinx and The joint Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario stations, a six-km tunnel, and civil works. Infrastructure Team is responsible for the project as a whole. Ontario Metrolinx is the designated delivery organization and is leading on planning, design, delivery, and operations.

Infrastructure Ontario is leading Northern Civil, Stations, and Tunnels on procurement and Transit Oriented Communities. Scope will be defined in the Requests for TTC and the Supporting on the design and development City of Toronto of the project and will share responsibility Qualification when it is issued. The anticipated for operating the line once complete. scope includes seven stations, a three-kilometre P3 Partners Responsible for designing, building, partially tunnel, two portals and the associated approach financing, operating and maintaining the structures, bridges and elevated guideways. project with direct management by the Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario Team.

Note: The Ontario Line from the Don Yard to will be delivered as part of the GO expansion project. Much of this, as well as some work at Exhibition, will be delivered as “Early Works”, using conventional Design Bid Build contracting.

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Planning, Design, Procurement, and Delivery Timeline

2020 2021 2022 2023

Fall Procurement & Design Preliminary North Request for Spring Winter Spring Design Business Qualifications South & RSSOM Case Release Early Works Early Works Request for Contracts posted Contracts awarded South & RSSOM Qualifications South & RSSOM Financial Close Request for Proposals North Request for Proposals

Environmental Conditions Report Sept 17 ,2020 Nov 30, 2020 Notice of Draft Notice of Final Environmental Environmental Conditions Report Conditions Report

Early Works Report Minister review

Fall Winter Spring Notice of Draft Notice of Final Statement of Report(s) Report(s) completion

Environmental Impact Minister review Assessment Report Summer Fall Winter Notice of Draft Notice of Final Statement of Environmental Environmental completion Impact Assessment Impact Assessment Report Report

Construction Summer Early works begin Major Construction Begins

Public Engagement Fall Winter Spring Public Consultation Public Consultation Public Consultation

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Ontario Line Risks Table 2: Ontario Line Risk Overview

Risk Category Risk Description Risk Mitigation Approach

Procurement Supply of skills may be constrained due to many other capital Market engagement and Overview projects underway. This may result in escalating costs for labour and forward planning. materials due to competing local demand for resources, equipment Metrolinx and Infrastructure supply (such as trucks), sub-contractor availability, and some material. Ontario are taking a proactive approach to identify, estimate, Delivery and Delayed utilities relocations. This may happen due to additional Develop a utility management strategy. and manage key risks for the Construction work associated with non-identified customer connections; Ontario Line project. Table additional requirements not included in the design; and /or mis 2 provides a summary of located utilities. Schedule impact - extend relocation time. some of the key risks that are Electric power network capacity may be inadequate to support Evaluate the current capacity, and temporary (construction) and/or permanent power needs. This may plan forward. Work with electricity being actively managed. cause stop of works and additional cost during tunneling works. utilities to address requirements early. Design for location of substations and launch sites. Complex alignment/management of the scope of works Prepare and analyze project schedule could have an impact on cost and schedule due to delays to include the interdependencies. incurred if rework or misalignments takes place.

Integration with other projects under construction at the same Determine and agree on the time (example: elements ofGO Expansion). This may result in schedule interfaces. cost increase and schedule delay due to many interfaces. Monitor progress and coordinate across project lifecycle. Additional complexities uncovered during delivery Develop project schedules and could have an impact on cost and schedule due plans with a focus on mitigating risks to delays incurred if rework is required. associated with complex alignment.

Operations Integration of railway systems including vehicles, Railway systems and vehicles power supply, signalling, and, platform doors. procured through a single contractto mitigate integration risk. Fire and life safety systems that work together with railway systems, meet regulatory requirements and Initial fleet is being procured are acceptable to the emergency services. to meet projected 2040 peak demand, with provision for Developing an optimal service plan that manages additional fleet to be acquired. uncertainty over operations, customer service strategy. Stations are being built for 100 m long Overcrowding when the system opens or in the future. trains to allow a range of train sizes.

Stations will be sized for 2080 demand.

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Preliminary Design

Business Case Summary Table 3: Business Case Summary Comparing IBC and PDBC

Comparable Improved performance Change due to New to PDBC performance to IBC compared to the IBC methodology update

Business Case Summary PDBC Alignment PDBC Alignment Rationale for Strategic Case IBC Performance with IBC Operating with Refined Change This PDBC for the Ontario Line • serve 374,000 to 388,000 Concept Operating Concept presents a reference concept trips each day; Comparable performance 388,000 trips per day 374,000 trips per day that has been developed Improved access to transit 389,000 trips per day • move up to 5,000 to 6,000 on the Ontario Line on the Ontario Line (Changes to input land based on detailed planning, use compared to IBC) travellers off Line 1 during the design, and engineering as +53,000 jobs accessible well as critical lessons learned busiest hour of the day, freeing by transit +47,000 jobs accessible within 45 minutes by transit Comparable performance up capacity for other travellers; Increased access to from the Ontario Line Initial economic activity +66,000 jobs accessible to +57,000 jobs accessible to lower-income (Changes to input land lower-income Torontonians Torontonians within 45 minutes by transit use compared to IBC) Business Case and previous • take 28,000 cars off the road each day; within 45 minutes by transit subway planning studies. Transit Oriented Transit Oriented Improved performance Support a synergistic TOC could result in Communities could result in Communities could result in relationship between • make travel times faster and +20,000 new trips +55,000 new trips if delivered +52,000 new trips if delivered The Ontario Line RCD’s transit and city building (Refined TOC forecasts more predictable and makes the alongside the Ontario Line alongside the Ontario Line and improved runtimes) performance is summarized Toronto network more resilient and Improved performance Improved travel time 355 thousand minutes in Table 3. The result of this 390 thousand minutes saved in peak hour integrated, saving customers seven and reliability saved in peak hour (improved run times) planning and development minutes per trip on average; Significant crowding Significant crowding work is a revised RCD Significant crowding reduction during the reduction during the reduction during the that is forecast to: • support urban development busiest hour of the day busiest hour of the day busiest hour of the day

and equity goals by connecting • Line 1: -6,000 trips • Line 1: • Line 1: -14% crowding Comparable performance (-15% crowding) -5,000 trips (-12% crowding) underserved communities and areas Improved comfort and safety • Bloor-Yonge Station: • Bloor-Yonge Station: • Bloor-Yonge Station: -17% crowding planned for further development by -14,000 trips (-22% crowding) -10,000 trips (-15% crowding) • Eglinton Station: • Eglinton Station: • Eglinton Station: -15% crowding using a combination of alignment -5,000 trips (-16% crowding) -5,000 trips(-16% crowding) • Union Station: • Union Station: • Union Station: types to build further, faster, and -13% crowding -14,000 trips (-14% crowding) -14,000 trips (-14% crowding) more cost effectively; and +62,000 new trips on +60,000 new trips on transit per day transit per day Improved performance • generate at least $9.9 to $11.3 billion +39,000 transfers A more resilient and integrated between Ontario Line (improved run times) in economic benefit for the City of transport network and Rapid Transit and +50,000 transfers +50,000 transfers GO rail in peak hour between Ontario Line between Ontario Line Toronto and the GTHA as a whole, and the Frequent Rapid and the Frequent Rapid Transit Network Transit Network with an expected BCR of 1.05– Since the publication of the meaning for every dollar spent the - 7.2 million litres of automobile fuel saved per year IBC, the GHG estimate in the Moving people with less -1 million tonnes of GHG published IBC was iden-tified energy and reduced emissions emissions per year region will benefit by up to $1.05. -14,000 tonnes of GHG emissions per year to be erroneous and has since been corrected and updated.

Note – indicator refined for Improve Quality of life -28,000 car trips a day resulting in -1,200 collisions Current version of benefit PDBC to focus on health and public health causing death or injury over the project lifecycle not included in IBC impacts not captured in IBC

New benefit in PDBC Unlocking jobs and +4,700 jobs per year supported in construction and New benefit not economic development supply train industries between 2020-2030 included in the IBC

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Table 3 (cont.) : Business Case Summary Comparing IBC and PDBC Comparable Improved performance Change due to New to PDBC performance to IBC compared to the IBC methodology update

PDBC Alignment PDBC Alignment IBC and PDBC Performance Comparison IBC Performance with IBC Operating with Refined Rationale for Economic Case Next Steps (million 2019$) Concept Operating Concept Change The following overall conclusions are drawn (million 2020$) (million 2020$) from the PDBC and IBC comparison: Improved performance The Ontario Line will continue Total Economic Optimized run times, through the Metrolinx Stage $9,200 $10,230 to $11,310 $9,900 to $10,960 interchanges, and • overall Ontario Line performance in the Strategic Benefits (million $) consideration of Gate process, including: additional user benefits and Economic cases has improved since the • harnessing lessons Improved performance IBC – the application of benefits management Detailed design that learned during the Total Costs (million $) $10,400 to $12,000 $9,910 to $10,550 $9,610 to $10,260 throughout the planning process has augmented allows greater certainty development of this PDBC on costs and risks key benefits (such as travel time savings); during the development of this PDBC, including Expected NPV (million $) -$2,800 to -$1,200 $540 $500 • benefits were augmented by improving end to end travel Improved performance a comparison of the Improved benefits with costs times and optimizing stations for ease of access, egress, performance of the that have decreased relative to IBC high-end estimates. and integration with urban form – these changes resulted two operating concept Expected BCR 0.76 to 0.88 1.05 1.05 in quicker trips and reduced crowding across the network; options, to develop a refined reference • costs were minimized and key risks were mitigated concept design and PDBC Alignment PDBC Alignment Rationale for concept of operations; Financial Case IBC Performance with IBC Operating with Refined throughout the preliminary design and key technical Change Concept Operating Concept stakeholders engagement process – across the Economic • advancing to procurement

Improved performance and Case and Financial the PDBC costs are either close or milestones – the request change in assumptions for qualifications (RFQ) for Detailed design that allows below the ‘low end’ estimate presented in the IBC; $9,500 to $11,400 3 $8,600 $8,420 Capital Costs (million $) greater certainty on costs and Civils North and Rolling risks. Terminal value of land • the Financial Case notes overall improvements to Stock Systems Operations was not included in the IBC and Maintenance (RSSOM) the financial efficiency of the project – both capital Improved performance were released in June Operations Costs (million $) $1,900 $1,570 $1,410 Improved ‘bottom up’ costs and operating costs have been optimized 2020 and request for operating cost model which has resulted this results in a project with proposals (RFP) are a more manageable net financial impact and planned for release Change in assumptions in Fall 2020; and Revenue Impact (million $) $1,800 $ 2,430 $ 2,360 Fares no longer have a greater revenue to operating cost ratio; and discounted double fare • developing the FBC to Improved performance • the PDBC development and preliminary design process advance the project Refined costing has resulted -$9,600 to $11,500 -$7,740 -$7,470 has generated a more cost-effective Ontario Line towards final approvals Net Financial Impact (million $) in a net financial impact lower than the IBC with increased benefits, as is evidenced by the higher and confirm costs, range of BCRs in the PDBC (1.05 compared to 0.76 to benefits, and key technical Improved performance and design choices. Increases in revenue and 0.88) and higher total benefits ($9.9 to $11.3 billion 0.95 1.6 1.7 Revenue Operating Cost Ratio decreases in operating costs relative to IBC in the PDBC compared to $9.2 billion in the IBC).

PDBC Alignment PDBC Alignment Deliverability and Rationale for IBC Performance with IBC Operating with Refined Operations Case Change Concept Operating Concept

Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario developed a Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario will use a multipackage IBC reviewed a range of procurement model P3 model to deliver the Ontario Line while mitigating key risks Procurement Approach P3 delivery models. based on market sounding and maximizing value for money and operational flexibility. and further technical analysis and planning. 3. If accounting for terminal value of land (Present Value = $1,016 million), as was done in the PDBC, the IBC capital costs would be $8,480 to $10,380 million

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