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Air & Space Power Journal, March-April 2013, Volume 27, No. 2

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Air & Space Power Journal, March-April 2013, Volume 27, No. 2 March–April 2013 Volume 27, No. 2 AFRP 10-1 Senior Leader Perspective Taming the Tigers ❙ 4 Recapturing the Acquisition Excellence of Our Planning, Programming, and Acquisition Three-Ring Circus Maj Gen Robert Kane, USAF Lt Col Jason Bartolomei, PhD, USAF Features The Air War in Libya ❙ 28 Maj Jason R. Greenleaf, USAF A Case for Air Force Reorganization ❙ 55 Col Jeffrey P. Sundberg, USAF A New Approach to Ballistic Missile Defense for Countering Antiaccess/ Area-Denial Threats from Precision-Guided Weapons ❙ 83 Col Mike Corbett, USAF, Retired Realizing Operational Planning and Assessment in the Twenty-First-Century Air Operations Center ❙ 107 How a Refined Planning Construct and Semantic Technologies Can Enable Delivery of the AOC’s Last Unsupported Functions (Part 1) Wg Cdr Redvers T. Thompson, Royal Air Force, Retired Airmen and Mission Command ❙ 131 Lt Col James W. Harvard, USAF, Retired Departments 147 ❙ Views Observations on the Air War in Syria . 147 Lt Col S. Edward Boxx, USAF 169 ❙ Book Reviews Cataclysm: General Hap Arnold and the Defeat of Japan . 169 Herman S. Wolk Reviewer: Frank Kalesnik, PhD Navy Strategic Culture: Why the Navy Thinks Differently . 171 Roger W. Barnett Reviewer: Toby Lauterbach Fighting Talk: Forty Maxims on War, Peace, and Strategy . 174 Colin S. Gray Reviewer: Maj Stephen L. Meister, USAF Breakthrough: The Gorlice-Tarnow Campaign, 1915 . 176 Richard L. DiNardo Reviewer: Gilles Van Nederveen Terrorism, Instability, and Democracy in Asia and Africa . 178 Dan G. Cox, John Falconer, and Brian Stackhouse Reviewer: Mel Staffeld Confronting the Chaos: A Rogue Military Historian Returns to Afghanistan . 180 Sean M. Maloney Reviewer: Capt William R. Giles, USAF Bully Able Leader: The Story of a Fighter-Bomber Pilot in the Korean War . 182 Lt Gen George G. Loving, USAF, Retired Reviewer: Dr. Dan Mortensen March–April 2013 Air & Space Power Journal | 2 Editorial Advisory Board Gen John A. Shaud, PhD, USAF, Retired, Air Force Research Institute Lt Gen Bradley C. Hosmer, USAF, Retired Dr. J. Douglas Beason (Senior Executive Service and Colonel, USAF, Retired), Air Force Space Command Dr. Alexander S. Cochran, Office of the Chief of Staff, US Army Prof. Thomas B. Grassey, US Naval Academy Lt Col Dave Mets, PhD, USAF, Retired, School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (professor emeritus) Board of Reviewers Dr. Kendall K. Brown Dr. Tom Keaney NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Johns Hopkins University Dr. Clayton K. S. Chun Col Merrick E. Krause, USAF, Retired US Army War College Department of Homeland Security Dr. Mark Clodfelter Col Chris J. Krisinger, USAF, Retired National War College Burke, Virginia Dr. Conrad Crane Dr. Benjamin S. Lambeth Director, US Army Military History Institute Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Col Dennis M. Drew, USAF, Retired Mr. Douglas E. Lee USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Air Force Space Command (professor emeritus) Dr. Richard I. Lester Maj Gen Charles J. Dunlap Jr., USAF, Retired Eaker Center for Professional Development Duke University Mr. Brent Marley Dr. Stephen Fought Redstone Arsenal, Alabama USAF Air War College (professor emeritus) Mr. Rémy M. Mauduit Col Richard L. Fullerton, USAF Air Force Research Institute USAF Academy Col Phillip S. Meilinger, USAF, Retired Lt Col Derrill T. Goldizen, PhD, USAF, Retired West Chicago, Illinois Westport Point, Massachusetts Dr. Daniel Mortensen Col Mike Guillot, USAF, Retired Air Force Research Institute Editor, Strategic Studies Quarterly Dr. Richard R. Muller Air Force Research Institute USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Dr. John F. Guilmartin Jr. Dr. Bruce T. Murphy Ohio State University Air University Dr. Amit Gupta Col Robert Owen, USAF, Retired USAF Air War College Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Dr. Grant T. Hammond Lt Col Brian S. Pinkston, USAF, MC, SFS USAF Center for Strategy and Technology Civil Aerospace Medical Institute Dr. Dale L. Hayden Dr. Steve Rothstein Air Force Research Institute Colorado Springs Science Center Project Mr. James Hoffman Lt Col Reagan E. Schaupp, USAF Rome Research Corporation Naval War College Milton, Florida Dr. Barry Schneider Dr. Thomas Hughes Director, USAF Counterproliferation Center USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Professor, USAF Air War College Lt Col Jeffrey Hukill, USAF, Retired Col Richard Szafranski, USAF, Retired Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education Lt Col Edward B. Tomme, PhD, USAF, Retired CyberSpace Operations Consulting Lt Col J. P. Hunerwadel, USAF, Retired LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education Dr. Christopher H. Toner University of St. Thomas Dr. Mark P. Jelonek, Col, USAF, Retired Aerospace Corporation Lt Col David A. Umphress, PhD, USAFR, Retired Auburn University Col John Jogerst, USAF, Retired Navarre, Florida Col Mark E. Ware Twenty-Fourth Air Force Mr. Charles Tustin Kamps USAF Air Command and Staff College Dr. Harold R. Winton USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies March–April 2013 Air & Space Power Journal | 3 Senior Leader Perspective Taming the Tigers Recapturing the Acquisition Excellence of Our Planning, Programming, and Acquisition Three-Ring Circus Maj Gen Robert Kane, USAF* Lt Col Jason Bartolomei, PhD, USAF e in the Air Force have adopted an approach that subopti- mizes our Big “A” acquisition triad of requirements, budget, and acquisition processes and that lacks a sufficient “trade Wspace” analysis to maximize the benefit of our dollars. Trade space, which combines the terms trade-off and play space, refers to the lead- Illustration reprinted by permission of Michael Brewer, www.michaelbrewerart.com. *The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their incisive thinking and constructive edits: Gen Jim McCarthy (retired), Prof. Dan Hastings, Prof. Richard de Neufville, Prof. Gautam Mukunda, Col Glenn Downing, Col Chris Garrett, Col Jim Lovell, Col Troy Thomas, Bill Castle, Mike Kalna, Carl Rehberg, Nic Wilson, Lt Col Darren Cochran, Lt Col Luke Cropsey, Lt Col Vinnie Dabrowski, Lt Col Rick Holifield, Lt Col Pete Sandness, Lt Col Mike Warner, Maj Nate Campbell, Maj Jens Lyndrup, Maj Dan Mollis, Maj Dan Pupich, Maj Jon Seal, Dr. Kevin Sweeney, Dr. Matt Richards, Dr. Donna Rhodes, Dr. Adam Ross, Dr. Nirav Shah, Dr. Tom Speller, Paul Bess, Frank Finelli, Marcus Friesen, and Matt Jensen. March–April 2013 Air & Space Power Journal | 4 Senior Leader Perspective er’s options and the consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of those choices. The objective of considering the trade space is to ex- pand the envelope of potential options to identify the best alternative. Failures to develop our trade space have diluted the quality and timeli- ness of decision making by the secretary of the Air Force and the chief of staff. Our core problem involves a systemic failure to create trade spaces that integrate the information used in our separate planning, budgeting, and acquisition processes to holistically inform the Air Force’s decisions. The inability to successfully integrate these pro- cesses creates programmatic instabilities that lead to cost and schedule overruns, reinforces political vulnerabilities which undermine our ability to implement a path forward, and, ultimately, limits our capac- ity to maximize delivery of war-fighting value. This situation is of particular concern as we face a significant budget crisis and imminent reductions in defense spending. Figure 1 illustrates this point by presenting a notional “benefit versus cost” chart that de- fines value as benefit at cost. Our fear is that, for the amount of money we spend on our Air Force, we are not maximizing the benefit. If we continue on our current path, we run the risk of diminishing our capa- bilities at a time when we face increasingly compelling and diverse se- curity issues that will undoubtedly require a full range of leading-edge air, space, and cyber capabilities.1 Reversing these effects demands new thinking and a new approach. March–April 2013 Air & Space Power Journal | 5 Senior Leader Perspective Future Best Value Is Air Force (AF) Today’s Found along the Curve Budget Line AF Budget Line Maximum Benet s) il Our Future AF? Our AF Today Benet (UtBenet Zero Benet Cost ($$) Figure 1. Value chart (benefit versus cost) A more effective option entails a holistic, value-focused approach that expands visibility into our decision trade space by identifying al- ternatives that maximize our capabilities and budgets while capitaliz- ing on the strengths of our established processes. This new approach would take advantage of the best information available in our plan- ning, budgeting, and acquisition processes and allow Air Force leaders to simultaneously assess the assumptions, costs, benefits, and alterna- tives of decisions and expand the trade-off between benefit and cost. We can use this scalable approach to explore strategic-level trade-offs at the capabilities or mission-requirements level of analysis, as well as trade-offs for particular systems and programs. Furthermore, this ap- proach enables necessary justification and means for demonstrating to March–April 2013 Air & Space Power Journal | 6 Senior Leader Perspective the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the congressional staffs the clear basis for Air Force investments. Toward that end, this article first reviews the Air Force’s current Big “A” acquisition process and then compares it to how other large organizations have successfully ad- dressed similar challenges involving prioritization and trade-space analysis. In conclusion it presents a new, value-driven approach tai- lored to integrate our processes and improve our ability to deliver value-maximizing solutions. The Current Air Force Process: Our Tigers and the Three Rings The Air Force’s Big “A” acquisition processes, like the Department of Defense’s (DOD), consists of three “interlocking” decision support sys- tems (fig. 2), including the following: • Core function lead integrators (CFLI), led by commanders of the major commands (MAJCOM), are responsible for identifying, as- sessing, and prioritizing the Air Force’s capability needs.
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