Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM) Road Map Implementation Plan Mandy Karnauskas Ecosystem Science Lead Southeast Fisheries Science Center Gulf States Marine Fisheries Commission Spring Business Meeting New Orleans, Louisiana March 21, 2019 What is EBFM? Q: What do all of these priority ecosystem management topics have in common?

A: They can’t be fully addressed without collaboration between state and federal partners

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2 What is EBFM? Can be considered within a spectrum of approaches

“We highlight the lack of consensus in the interpretation of EBFM amongst professionals in marine science…it is unnecessary for management to practice all the traits of EBFM, as some may be disparate from the ecosystem attributes or fishery goals. Instead, incorporating some ecosystemStock-based assessment considerations to fisheries managementimprovement that are context plan- specific is a more realistic and useful way for EBFM to occur in practice.”

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3 What is EBFM? NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program (IEA) “The analytical engine to implement ecosystem approaches”

Gulf of Mexico IEA Mission Statement: Balancing the needs of nature and society through integrated science for current and future generations in the Gulf of Mexico

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4 Why EBFM? Single species stock assessments have been highly successful in ending overfishing

Now, the challenging part: what is optimum yield?

MSY as reduced by economic, social, ecological factors OY

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5 Why EBFM? • We may be able to improve short-term projections • Rebuilding plans are costly

• We have rights to productive fisheries

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6 How EBFM? NOAA Fisheries EBFM Road Map Policy May 2016 National EBFM Policy released June 2017 Regional Road Map development initiated September 2018 Regional drafts released; public comment period Summer 2019 Final Road Maps to be released

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7 Purpose of the Gulf EBFM Road Map 1) Document the efforts that the SEFSC its partners have completed, 2) guide the organization of ecosystem science within the SE region, 3) clarify regional priorities in order to facilitate collaboration, and 4) assist the Gulf Council with ecosystem-level planning.

Intended audience: Gulf Council, Current Ecosystem public, the NOAA Fisheries Southeast science objectives region and its collaborating partners 7 capacity THEMATIC in FMPs AREAS Overall objective: to motivate a dialogue on how EBFM can be Regional effectively applied in the Gulf of Mexico priorities

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 Gulf EBFM Road Map Outline

Regional context Current Ecosystem • Stock assessment science objectives capacity 7 in FMPs • Baseline monitoring THEMATIC AREAS • Climate change • Habitat considerations Regional • Multi-species interactions priorities • Connectivity • Human dimensions Expected outcomes and benefits Engagement strategy

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9 Advancing stock assessments (a.k.a. SAIP) • Larval transport of red snapper • Red tide and groupers • Shrimp production

Estimating mortality due to red tide events (Walter et al. 2013, SEDAR33-DW08)

Larval transport modeling to predict recruitment strength (M. Karnauskas, J. Walter, SEFSC; C. Paris, Univ. of Miami) (J. Leo, T. Minello, L. Rozas, SEFSC; many other collaborators)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10 Baseline monitoring • Existing long-term monitoring activities • Ecosystem Status Reports • Gulf of Mexico Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species • Pilot “ecosystem survey” (eDNA, diet data)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11 Climate Vulnerability Climate Analysis (J. Quinlan, SEFSC) • Climate vulnerability analyses • Bluefin tuna spawning predictions • Biogeochemical modeling

Impacts of El Niño on plankton biomass Predicting effects of climate change (Gomez et al. in review, on bluefin tuna spawning habitat Geophysical Research Letters) (B. Muhling et al. 2011, ICES 68(6) 1051–1062)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12 Predictions of mammal distributions from visual survey and acoustic data Habitat considerations (M. Soldevilla, L. Garrison, SEFSC; J. Hildebrand, K. Frasier, Scripps Institution of Oceanography) • Estuarine habitat • Pelagic habitat

Predicting preferred conditions for Bluefin tuna larvae (Domingues et al. 2016 Fisheries Oceanography) Understanding estuarine productivity (T. Minello, P. Caldwell, L. Rozas, SEFSC)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13 Multi-species interactions EcoPath with EcoSim • Bycatch issues RESTORE project: Integrate ecosystem • Diet studies stressors and predator-prey interactions into stock assessment and management • Ecosystem modeling (S. Sagarese, M. Lauretta, SEFSC; D. Chagaris, R. Ahrens, University of Florida; K. de Mutsert, George Mason University)

ATLANTIS end-to-end ecosystem model GoMexSI diet database (J. Simons, Texas A&M) (C. Ainsworth, USF; M. Masi, M. Schirripa, SEFSC)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14 Connectivity: regional • Estimating larval transport between regions • Spatially explicit assessments Non-spatial model • Otolith studies Spatial model with larval movement Red snapper GoM-Atl connectivity Advanced stock assessments (M. Karnauskas, K. Shertzer, T. Kellison, SEFSC; C. (D. Goethel, SEFSC) Paris, University of Miami, R. He, NC State University; S. Lowerre-Barbieri, FWRI)

Otolith microchemistry

13 δ CBa and shape analysis Mn Ca δ18O (B. Barnett, G. Fitzhugh, Mg Sr Li SEFSC)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15 Connectivity: watersheds Understanding hypoxia affects on: -habitat Gonads smaller at hypoxic sites -vital rates -fisher behavior -shrimp prices Brown shrimp habitat loss low hypoxia severe hypoxia CPUE 95% 20m 75% 20m 50% 25% 80m 80m - How do effects on vital rates translate to the population? 2017 Hypoxic Zone (July)

- Does hypoxia bias management (K. Craig, R. Hart, J. Nance, B. Langseth, SEFSC; M. Smith, advice from stock assessments? Duke University; D. Obenour, NC State University)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16 Human dimensions Understand and track how different management actions affect human well-being

Results Chain and Bayesian network modeling approaches (M. McPherson, S. Blake, SEFSC; M. Jepson, SERO)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17 This all seems a little bit overwhelming…

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18 Red tide case study

2.5

Video 2 Comm LL

Comm HL 1.5

HB(18" MSL) 1 HB(20" MSL)

MRFSS 0.5

0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Satellite-informed model of red tide  index for stock assessment

0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 Red Red tide index 0.02 (average proportion positive)

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Walter et al. 2013

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19 Incorporating red tide into stock assessment no red tide red tide included - Including index commercial model improves stock data assessment fit - Red tide explains

declines of ~8 million relative abundance grouper (gag and red combined) in 2005 headboat model data relative abundance

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20 Management Strategy Evaluation Are current harvest policies robust to possible future changes in frequency of red tides?

Harford et al., 2018 Precautionary buffers Precautionary buffers

management objectives management objectives Grüss et al., 2016

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21 What is the “system” we are managing?

Participatory system dynamics modeling EBFM scoping Marine Spring - fall 2018 Resource workshops Education Focus on snapper-grouper fisheries Program 2018 Goal: To increase information flow between scientists, managers, Fisheries and stakeholders, in scientists/ support of improved managers stock assessment and ecosystem assessment in the Gulf of Mexico.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22 Participatory fisheries system modeling

Forces controlled by fishery management

Forces that affect the Red tide fisheries

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23 Accounting for fish kills is just the beginning… Red tide also perceived to negatively affect: • Prey base • Habitat • Tourism • Aquaculture • Demand for recreational sector • Demand for local seafood • Restaurant industry • Real estate • Human health - bacterial infections - mental health

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24 Red tide response cruise – October 2018

12-19 Oct 2018

Chris Kelble (NOAA-AOML) in collaboration with NOAA-SEFSC, NOAA-NESDIS, CIMAS, FWC- Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Mote Marine Lab, University of South Florida, NCCOS

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25 Local ecological knowledge (LEK) assessment • Document red tide locations, frequency and severity over time and space • Document impacts on ecosystem • Identify stakeholder-driven hypotheses on bloom ecology • Document adaptation strategies

FWRI HAB database

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26 What is EBFM?

www.usatoday.com

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27 Acknowledgments Thank you to all the SEFSC and SERO staff and other NOAA scientists who contributed to the Gulf EBFM Road Map. Red tide work:

Mandy Karnauskas, Ph.D. NOAA Fisheries – SEFSC 75 Virginia Beach Drive, Miami, Florida 33149 [email protected] (305) 361-4592

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | National Marine Fisheries Service | Page 28