The Long Shadow of the Spanish Civil War∗ Ana Tur-Prats Felipe Valencia Caicedo November 2, 2020 Abstract: The Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) was one of the most devastating conflicts of the twentieth century, yet little is known about its long-term legacy. We show that the war had a long-lasting effect on social capital and voting behavior. We use geo-located data on historical mass graves, disaggregated modern-day survey data on trust, combined with current electoral results. For econometric identification, we exploit deviations from the initial military plans of attack, using the historical (1931) highway network. We also employ a geographical Regression Discontinuity Design along the front of Aragon. Our results reveal a significant, negative and sizable relationship between political violence and generalized trust. We further decompose the trust results, finding negative effects of conflict on trust in institutions associated with the Civil War, but no effects when looking at trust in post-1975 democratic institutions. We also find long-lasting results on voting during the democratic period from 1977 to 2016, corresponding to the sided political repression carried out in the region of Aragon. In terms of mechanisms|-using a specialized survey on the Civil War, street names and Francoist newsreels about the war{ we find lower levels of political engagement and differential patterns of collective memory about this traumatic historical event. Keywords: Conflict, Civil War, Political Repression, Spain, History, Trust, Voting, Col- lective Memory, Political Propaganda JEL classification: D72, D74, N14, Z10 ∗Author affiliations and contacts: Tur-Prats (University of California, Merced, Department of Eco- nomics,
[email protected]), Valencia Caicedo (University of British Columbia, Vancouver School of Economics, CEPR and IZA,
[email protected]).