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The New Energy Primer

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The New Energy Primer September 2011 The New Energy Primer A guide to the future of power generation Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report. Your guide to the report Entrée Energy – the big picture More energy = higher standard of living – p.7 Global energy demand likely to further increase over the next 20 years – p.9 New Energy needed to maintain economic growth – p.13 Main course Power capacity, generation and investments – p.18-19 Energy return on energy invested – p.21 The cookbook – mature technologies Biomass (combustion) – p. 24, CCGT (CBM) – p.26, CCGT (Shale Gas) – p.28, Geothermal – p.30, Waste-to-energy – p.32, Advanced Nuclear – p.34, Small Hydro – p.36, Solar Crystalline – p.38, Solar Thin Film – p.40, Onshore Wind – p.42, Offshore Wind – p.44 The cookbook – up & coming Biomass (Anaerobic Digestion) – p.46, Carbon Capture & Storage – p.47, Solar CLFR – p.48, Solar Parabolic – p.49, Solar Towers – p.50, Tidal – p.51, Wave – p.52, Wind power - micro – p.53 Wind energy overview – p.55 Solar energy overview – p.63 China vs. India The two energy-consuming monsters – p.72 A face-off format comparing demand, supply, policy support to clean energy, and current challenges – p.74 Desserts New Energy supply forecasts – p.84 The 2020 New Energy mix – p.85 Company list – p.88 Available for take-out: Daiwa World Energy Map (insert) The New Energy Primer September 2011 Table of contents Introduction 1 1 Energy – the big picture 3 2 New Energy 15 New Energy cookbook 22 3 Wind energy overview 55 4 Solar energy overview 63 5 China versus India 71 6 Conclusions 83 The New Energy Primer September 2011 Contributing Daiwa Analysts: Managing the transition to New Energy sources One of the biggest challenges we believe investors face this century is assessing the impact of the transition from the world’s current dependence on fossil fuels – which have been the main driver of global economic growth over the past few centuries and are becoming more difficult and expensive to source – to new cleaner sources of energy. As part of Daiwa’s efforts to help clients better understand the impact of this Dave Dai, CFA transition on investment strategies across all asset classes, we have formed a Regional Head of Clean Energy and Utilities team dedicated to providing research related to latest alternative and clean- (852) 2848 4068 energy innovations. In this special report, we bring together the best of our [email protected] in-house research and thoughts from an independent third-party expert to provide an easy-to-digest primer covering the types of ‘New Energy’ that could become cornerstones of investment decisions in the future. We define ‘New Energy’ as those types of energy that are abundant in supply, cheap to produce/transport, friendly to the environment and ideally renewable. Our ‘New Energy’ primer represents a handy reference work that fund Pranab Kumar Sarmah, CFA managers and analysts can refer to continually during the investment Head of Solar decision-making process. (852) 2848 4441 [email protected] Dave Dai, CFA Regional Head of Clean Energy & Utilities research Guest Author: Alex is the General Manager of Wind Prospect Hong Kong and an advisor Alex Tancock to several clean technology venture-capital and private-equity funds. He General Manager has been working in the renewable-energy industry for over a decade; Wind Prospect having been involved primarily in the development, construction and operation of wind projects, both onshore and offshore, in Europe, the Asia- Pacific region and North America. Alex currently divides his time between providing due-diligence and advisory services to investment clients across China and the Asia-Pacific region and project managing the proposed 200MW Hong Kong Offshore Wind Farm in partnership with local utility CLP. Alex is a regular speaker at investor forums and conferences around Asia, and regularly contributes to articles for financial clients and industry journals in the region. The guest author, Alex Tancock, is an independent contributor as part of Daiwa's guest author programme, which is separate from the firm's normal research coverage. The views expressed by the guest author herein represent the opinions of the author only, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Daiwa, the other authors of this report, or the author’s employer. The New Energy Primer September 2011 Introduction From a brief review of history, it is clear that economic growth and quality of life are inextricably linked to energy consumption. In addition, if money is the grease that keeps the wheels of business turning, then energy is the motor that powers the global economy. However, in recent years, alarm bells have started ringing. The first decade of the 21st Century has highlighted the looming challenge of continuing to meet our global energy needs in an affordable and environmentally-acceptable manner. The primary ‘old energy’ technologies and fuels that have powered humanity’s rise – oil, coal, gas, large hydro-electric and old nuclear – all have major issues with either supply or their environmental impact that may limit their ability to continue driving the global economy in the 21st Century. The recent high prices of fossil fuels, together with increased instability in large energy-exporting nations, are a warning, in our view. It is becoming increasingly clear, therefore, that if we are to maintain a similar standard of living, or indeed improve it, we need to adopt ‘New Energy’ technologies and fuel sources that are both affordable and meet our environmental objectives. Given the US$4tn+ p.a. value of the global energy industry, this is likely to be one of the largest investment themes of the 21st Century – and this report provides a reference point that investors can use to maximise their returns as the world makes the transition to a New Energy future. Given the size of the energy industry and the differences in focus between those looking at the Oil & Gas Sector and the Utilities Sector, we thought it too ambitious to try and cover everything in one document. This report, therefore, focuses on New Energy technologies, and the opportunities that exist in the utility and electricity- generation spaces. New Energy means not just renewable energy, but also new ways of extracting or using traditional fuel sources, such as gas and coal, which will either extend the availability of the energy from these sources or make them cleaner to a point where they can be widely adopted while meeting environmental priorities. This report consists of six chapters that have been designed to be read in series or individually as standalone sections, depending on the interest of the reader. 1 Energy – the big picture An overview of the global energy industry in 2010 and the place of electricity and New Energy 2 New Energy An overview of the New Energy industry in 2010 New Energy cookbook All the key aspects of the New Energy technologies presented in a standardised easy to use format 3 Wind energy overview An overview of wind power in 2010 4 Solar energy overview An overview of solar power in 2010 5 China versus India A face-off between China and India – Asia’s two most important energy markets 6 Conclusions Our projections and conclusions - 1 - The New Energy Primer September 2011 This page has been intentionally left blank. - 2 - The New Energy Primer September 2011 CChhaapptteerr 11 EEnneerrggyy –– tthhee bbiigg ppiiccttuurree - 3 - The New Energy Primer September 2011 Energy industry overview Two-thousand-and-ten was another record year for the energy industry. With revenue of about US$4-5tn, the global energy business remains the largest business sector in the world. Indeed, four of the five largest companies in the world by revenue in 2010 were in the Energy Sector. Largest companies in the world by revenue Company Sector Revenue (US$bn) 1. Walmart Retail 422 2. ExxonMobile Energy 370 3. Royal Dutch Shell Energy 368 4. BP Energy 297 5. Sinopec Energy 290 Source: Forbes Global energy consumption rose by an impressive 5.6% YoY for 2010, as the global economy recovered somewhat from the slowdown in 2009 that hit consumption levels particularly hard in OECD countries. Consumption in OECD countries recovered in 2010, while non-OECD consumption continued to increase rapidly, by 7.5% YoY. China’s energy consumption had another heady year, rising by 11.2% YoY, with China (by most estimates in the market) surpassing the US to become the world’s largest energy consumer. Global electricity consumption, up 5.9% YoY for 2010, continued its recent trend of rising at a faster pace than other forms of energy consumption. Global energy consumption (2010) Global energy production (2010) India ROW ROW Germany 3% 3% 44% 42% Japan Canada 4% 4% India China China 4% Russia US 20% Saudi Arabia 17% Russia 14% US 19% 5% 6% 15% Source: BP Source: BP Global energy consumption: emerging-market demand continues to drive growth ('000 MTOE) 14 12 ROW 10 Former USSR 8 EU 6 US 4 China 2 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: BP *MTOE = millions of tonnes of oil equivalent - 4 - The New Energy Primer September 2011 Current global energy mix Despite the increasing investment in renewable-energy sources and the general excitement over alternative-energy technologies, the global energy mix in 2010 continued to be dominated by fossil fuels: coal, oil and gas. The first decade of the 21st Century saw the return of coal as the dominant fuel, meeting almost half of the actual incremental global energy demand between 2000 and 2010.
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