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High-quality constraints on the glacial isostatic adjustment process over North America: The ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model by Keven Roy A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Physics University of Toronto © Copyright 2017 by Keven Roy Abstract High-quality constraints on the glacial isostatic adjustment process over North America: The ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model Keven Roy Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Physics University of Toronto 2017 The Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process describes the response of the Earth’s surface to variations in land ice cover. Models of the phenomenon, which is dominated by the influence of the Late Pleistocene cycle of glaciation and deglaciation, depend on two fundamental inputs: a history of ice-sheet loading and a model of the radial variation of mantle viscosity. Various geophysical observables enable us to test and refine these models. In this work, the impact of the GIA process on the rotational state of the planet will be analyzed, and new estimates of the long-term secular trend associated with the GIA process will be provided. It will be demonstrated that it has undertaken a significant change since the mid-1990s. Other important observables include the vast amount of geological inferences of past sea level change that exist for all the main coasts of the world. The U.S. Atlantic coast is a region of particular interest in this regard, due to the fact that data from the length of this coast provides a transect of the forebulge associated with the former Laurentide ice sheet. High-quality relative sea level histories from this region will be employed to generate a new model of the GIA process that includes for the first time data from the forebulge region in its optimization process (the ICE-6G_C (VM6) model). Then, the series of analyses is extended to include space-geodetic observations of present-day vertical uplift of the crust. A solution reconciling all available data from the continent, named ICE-7G_NA (VM7), is obtained through modest further modifications of both the viscosity structure of the model and the North American component of the surface mass loading history. It provides an excellent fit to the constraining data related to the GIA process, including observations of the time-dependent de-levelling of the Great Lakes region. Finally, to test the global exportability of the new model, its predictions of relative sea level change are tested against observations from the Western Mediterranean region. ii Pour mes parents, Chantal et Martin iii Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor, Prof. W. R. Peltier, for his support and thoughtful mentoring throughout my project. Your guidance, advice and insight have helped me become a much better scientist and communicator. I am also grateful for the privilege you have given me to present my work and interact with other scientists at many conferences and workshops around the world during my time at the University of Toronto. Special thanks go to Prof. Dylan Jones and Prof. Qinya Liu for their insightful comments and support while being on my Ph.D. committee. Rosemarie Drummond and Guido Vettoretti also deserve credit for the invaluable help they have provided throughout the project. I would also like to thank Prof. Ben Horton and Dr. Donald Argus for sharing their expertise with me as I was learning about relative sea level data and space-geodetic observations. My external examiner, Prof. Geoffrey Blewitt, also deserves credit for his insightful comments on the final version of this thesis. I would also like to thank the very hard-working people of the Physics Department, including Ana Sousa, Pierre Savaria, Krystyna Biel and Teresa Baptista, who have helped me so many times. Special thanks also go to Dr. Michel Bourqui. Your introductory course on atmospheric and oceanic physics at McGill University and your availability to discuss research in Earth sciences have helped me discover a passion for geophysics. I would also like to thank the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Ontario Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities (through the Ontario Graduate Scholarship program) and the Fonds Nature et Technologies (FRQNT) for the funding I received in support of my project. I would also like to thank the Centre for Global Change Science (CGCS) for the funding I received to attend beneficial and exciting conferences in Greenland and Australia. Moreover, I am indebted to the amazing people I have met at the University of Toronto, and in particular the present and former members of the Atmospheric Physics and Geophysics groups. I have been lucky to be surrounded by such inspiring people and make lifelong friends in the process. In particular, special thanks go to Niall, Zen, Phil, Joseph, Ryan, Federico, Andrew, Alain, Ellen, Maria and Oliver. Your support and friendship have helped me carry this project through. I would also like to thank Simon: I was quite fortunate to have my best friend around for most of my time at the University of Toronto. Going rock climbing and spending time with you were always fun, and your friendship means a lot to me. The long discussions I have had with you and Jen have also helped me in the tougher times. Cheers to both of you. Also, thanks to all my friends back in Québec and Montréal, who have helped me a great deal in staying balanced and motivated. Finally, some very important people deserve recognition for the infallible support they have provided iv me throughout my project. Betty, you deserve special credit for this project. Your love and constant support have helped me so much with finishing this project. J’aimerais finalement remercier ma famille, et particulièrement mes parents (Chantal et Martin), à qui cette thèse est dédiée, ainsi que mes soeurs Mélissa et Karen. Votre support inconditionnel m’a permis de mener ce projet à terme. Je vous en suis extrêmement reconnaissant. v Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The orbital theory of the timing of the ice age cycle . 2 1.2 Ice age cycles in deep-sea sedimentary cores and ice cores . 7 1.3 Other geomorphological evidence and the Glacial Isotatic Adjustment (GIA) process . 11 1.4 Overview . 17 2 The Earth’s rotational state and its recent evolution 18 2.1 Fundamental dynamics . 19 2.1.1 A useful simplification: the axisymmetric case . 21 2.1.2 A special case: the free Eulerian wobble . 22 2.1.3 The influence of the GIA process on the moment of inertia of the planet . 23 2.2 Observations of rotational variability and reference frame considerations . 25 2.2.1 Celestial reference systems and frames . 25 2.2.2 Terrestrial reference systems and Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs) . 27 2.2.3 Rotational variability measurement techniques and the latest ITRF iteration . 32 2.3 The evolution of secular trends in the planetary rotational state: Methodology and results 34 2.3.1 Sources of variability in length-of-day measurements . 35 2.3.2 Sources of variability in polar wander measurements . 37 2.3.3 Polar wander and LOD evolution: Data set and methodology employed . 37 2.3.4 Secular trend pivot point determination: results and analysis . 41 2.4 Perspectives and future work . 45 3 GIA constraints from the U.S. East coast: the ICE-6G_C (VM6) model 48 3.1 General approach and strategy . 50 3.2 Modelling the GIA process: Theoretical background . 51 vi 3.3 The ICE-NG models of ice sheet loading history . 55 3.4 Analysis of the performance of the ICE-6G_C ice loading history as a function of viscosity model ............................................... 57 3.4.1 Relative sea-level history reconstructions . 57 3.4.2 The Engelhart and Horton (2012) data set of U.S. East coast RSL evolution . 59 3.4.3 Analysis of the performance of the VM5a and VM5b viscosity structures . 59 3.4.4 The fit to the Fennoscandian spectrum . 64 3.5 An exploration of alternative viscosity structures . 66 3.5.1 Basic assumptions and methodology employed . 67 3.5.2 Error analysis and model performance . 68 3.5.3 Alternative viscosity models: V1 and V2 . 69 3.5.4 Case study I: Mantle viscosity variations in the upper mantle . 74 3.5.5 Case study II: Viscosity changes in the upper part of the lower mantle . 77 3.5.6 Case study III: Viscosity variations in the transition zone . 77 3.5.7 Case study IV: Viscosity contrast variations between the upper mantle and lower mantle . 80 3.5.8 Case study V: Lithosphere thickness variations . 82 3.5.9 Case study VI: Lower mantle viscosity variations and the Earth’s rotational state . 85 3.5.10 Other considerations and a summary of the insights gained through the sensitivity analyses . 86 3.6 A preferred viscosity structure: the VM6 profile . 88 3.6.1 The predictions for the U.S. East coast for ICE-6G_C (VM6) . 89 3.6.2 The fit to the Fennoscandian relaxation spectrum . 93 3.6.3 Testing the viscosity structure against data from the North American West coast . 94 3.7 Conclusion . 97 4 Full GIA constraints over N. America: the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model 100 4.1 Geophysical observables related to the GIA process in North America and the performance of current models . 101 4.1.1 Constraints on former ice sheet extent and thickness . 102 4.1.2 The importance of RSL data from the North American region of forebulge collapse 102 4.1.3 Space-geodetic uplift measurements over North America . 104 vii 4.1.4 Time-dependent gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites .