NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY WIDE HOUSING NEEDS SURVEY

FINAL REPORT 2012 Version 10.07.13

Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... 9 1.1 Background & Context...... 9 1.2 Methodology ...... 9 1.3 The Economic Climate ...... 10 1.4 Future Population and Household Change...... 10 1.5 The Current Housing Stock ...... 12 1.6 The Housing Market ...... 13 1.7 Affordability and Access to Market Housing ...... 14 1.8 Second Homes ...... 15 1.9 Migration and Moving Households ...... 15 1.10 Households Intending to Move ...... 15 1.11 Households Moving To Market Housing ...... 16 1.12 Households Moving to Affordable Housing...... 16 1.13 Housing Needs of Disabled People...... 16 1.14 Housing Needs of Older People (aged 65+ years) ...... 16 1.15 Housing Needs of Black & Minority Ethnic Needs...... 18 1.16 Future Housing Demand...... 18 1.17 Key Recommendations...... 21 2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY...... 23 2.1 Background and Context ...... 23 2.2 Purpose, Aims and Objectives ...... 23 2.3 The Local Area ...... 24 2.4 SHMA Area Structure for Analysis ...... 25 2.5 Methodology ...... 26 2.6 Sampling ...... 26 2.7 Promotion...... 27 2.8 Survey Process and Response...... 27 2.9 Data Validity ...... 30 2.10 Survey Weighting...... 30 2.11 Guidance Model ...... 31 2.12 Definitions ...... 31 2.13 Data Sources...... 31 2.14 Survey Household Data ...... 32 3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ...... 33 3.1 Key Findings...... 33 3.2 Introduction...... 33 3.3 Education, Employment, Occupation and Work Place Data...... 34 3.4 Incomes and Housing Costs...... 36 3.5 Existing Households...... 37 3.6 Existing Moving Households...... 40 3.7 Concealed Households ...... 41 4 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE...... 43 4.1 Key Findings...... 43 4.2 Existing Population Profile...... 43 4.3 Demographic Analysis ...... 45 4.4 Population Projections ...... 45 4.5 Age Structure Forecast 2011 ‐ 2035 ...... 46 4.6 Regional and National Change...... 49 4.7 Forecast Change in Households...... 50 5 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ...... 51 5.1 Key Findings...... 51 5.2 Current Housing in Northumberland...... 52

2 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

5.3 Under and Over‐Occupation...... 55 5.4 Shared Facilities...... 57 5.5 Adequacy of Present Dwelling / Improvement Required...... 57 6 THE HOUSING MARKET...... 61 6.1 Key Findings...... 61 6.2 Introduction...... 61 6.3 The Current Market Outlook ...... 62 6.4 Housing Supply and Turnover...... 62 6.5 Current Prices ...... 62 6.6 Regional Picture...... 63 6.7 Average House Prices ...... 63 6.8 Sales Transactions ...... 65 6.9 Housing Market Analysis ...... 66 6.10 Entry Sales Levels in the County...... 69 6.11 Purchase Income Thresholds...... 70 6.12 Intermediate Housing Costs ...... 72 6.13 Private Sector Rent Levels ...... 73 6.14 Rental Income Thresholds ...... 74 6.15 Affordable Rents...... 75 6.16 Local Housing Allowance for Single People ...... 76 6.17 Affordability of Rented Properties...... 77 6.18 Second Homes ...... 78 7 MIGRATION...... 79 7.1 Key Findings...... 79 7.2 Introduction...... 79 7.3 In‐Migration to the County...... 80 7.4 Out ‐ Migration from the County...... 81 7.5 Migration Summary...... 83 7.6 Internal Household Movers...... 84 8 HOUSEHOLDS INTENDING TO MOVE...... 85 8.1 Key Findings...... 85 8.2 Introduction...... 85 8.3 Households Moving...... 85 8.4 Households Prevented from Moving...... 86 8.5 Demand for Existing Moving Households...... 87 8.6 Demand for Concealed Moving Households ...... 88 9 FUTURE MARKET HOUSING REQUIREMENTS...... 91 9.1 Key Findings...... 91 9.2 Introduction...... 91 9.3 Demand for Market Housing for Existing Moving Households ...... 91 9.4 Demand for Market Housing for Concealed Households...... 97 9.5 Households Unable to Move to Market Housing ...... 100 9.6 Total Demand for Market Housing in the County ...... 101 9.7 Current and Future Demand for Market Housing ...... 102 10 FUTURE AFFORDABLE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS...... 103 10.1 Key Findings...... 103 10.2 Introduction...... 103 10.3 Housing Benefit and Under‐Occupancy...... 103 10.4 Affordable Housing Need of Existing Households ...... 104 10.5 Needs of Concealed Households Moving Within Northumberland ...... 107 10.6 Future Size of Affordable Housing...... 112 10.7 Small Units...... 113 10.8 Family sized Units ...... 114

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11 HOUSING NEEDS OF DISABLED PEOPLE ...... 115 11.1 Key Findings...... 115 11.2 Needs of Disabled People...... 115 11.3 Support Needs...... 117 11.4 Adaptation...... 118 12 HOUSING NEEDS OF OLDER PEOPLE...... 120 12.1 Key Findings...... 120 12.2 Housing Needs of Older People...... 120 12.3 The Future Needs of Older People ...... 124 12.4 Savings / Equity of Older Households...... 126 12.5 Supported Accommodation...... 127 12.6 Population Growth and Housing Needs of 75+ Age Group ...... 128 12.7 Sheltered Housing Demand...... 129 12.8 Extra Care Accommodation...... 130 12.9 Making Best use of the Existing Stock ...... 131 12.10 Housing and Planning Strategy...... 131 13 BLACK AND MINORITY ETHNIC NEEDS...... 132 13.1 Key Findings...... 132 13.2 Introduction...... 133 13.3 Incomes ...... 134 13.4 Current Housing...... 135 13.5 Disability / Limiting Long Term illness ...... 136 13.6 Moving Plans of BME Households ...... 137 13.7 Existing BME Households Moving ...... 138 13.8 Concealed BME Households Moving...... 139 14 CLG NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL ...... 140 14.1 Introduction...... 140 14.2 The CLG Needs Assessment Model Structure...... 141 14.3 Model Structure...... 142 14.4 Northumberland CLG Needs Assessment Model ...... 142 14.5 Stage 2 – Future Need (Gross per year)...... 143 14.6 Stage 3 – Affordable Housing Supply...... 145 14.7 Vacant Stock ...... 145 14.8 Affordable Housing Needs Model ...... 148 14.9 Affordable Needs Assessment...... 149 15 PLANNING AND DELIVERY...... 150 15.1 Overall Housing Demand...... 150 15.2 Low Cost Market Housing...... 151 15.3 Affordable Housing...... 151 15.4 Affordable Housing Target Levels...... 152 15.5 Tenure Mix Targets...... 154 15.6 Market Housing ...... 155 15.7 Social and Affordable Rented Stock ...... 155 15.8 Intermediate Rented Housing ...... 156 15.9 Intermediate Affordable Housing...... 156 15.10 Older Households ...... 157 15.11 Building to Lifetime Homes Standard...... 157 16 UPDATING THE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT ...... 158 16.1 Introduction...... 158 16.2 Updating the CLG Needs Assessment Model ...... 159 16.3 Updating Other Secondary Data...... 159 16.4 Core Sustainability Indicators ...... 159 16.5 Updating the Primary Survey Data ...... 160

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16.6 Monitoring and Communicating Changes to the HNS...... 160 16.7 Plans to Fully Revise the HNS ...... 160 16.8 Market Triggers ...... 160 17 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 162 18 GLOSSARY ...... 163

Tables Table 1 ‐1 Future Delivery by Bedroom Size and Tenure ...... 20 Table 2 ‐1 Sub‐Area Structure...... 24 Table 2 ‐2 SHMA Area Structure...... 25 Table 2 ‐3 Response Rate by 37 Areas...... 28 Table 2 ‐4 Response Rate by 3 SHMA Areas...... 29 Table 2 ‐5 Tenure of Present Households...... 30 Table 3 ‐1 Employment Status of Head of Household...... 34 Table 3 ‐2 Occupation Type of Head of Household (Question 16f)...... 34 Table 3 ‐3 Workplace of Head of Household...... 35 Table 3 ‐4 Travel to Work of Head of Household ...... 35 Table 3 ‐5 Household Savings ...... 37 Table 3 ‐6 Savings Level / Tenure ...... 37 Table 3 ‐7 Level of Equity in Present Accommodation ...... 38 Table 3 ‐8 Gross Annual Income of all Existing Households ...... 38 Table 3 ‐9 Annual Income by Tenure...... 39 Table 3 ‐10 Rent / mortgage paid for present accommodation...... 39 Table 3 ‐11 Financial Support (Question 17e) ...... 40 Table 3 ‐12 Gross Annual Income of Existing Households Moving Within the County ...... 40 Table 3 ‐13 Concealed Household Savings ...... 41 Table 3 ‐14 Annual Income of Concealed Households ...... 41 Table 3 ‐15 Annual Income of Recently Formed Households...... 42 Table 4 ‐1 Family Composition ...... 43 Table 4 ‐2 Population Age Groups ...... 44 Table 4 ‐3 Number in Household...... 44 Table 4 ‐4 Population Change in Northumberland, 2011 – 2035 (2010 based) ...... 45 Table 4 ‐5 Population Age Band Forecast, Northumberland 2011 – 2035 (2010 Based)...... 46 Table 4 ‐6 Numbers of 65+ in Northumberland, 2011 – 2035 (2010 Based) ...... 48 Table 4 ‐7 Forecast Change % in Age of Households, 2011 – 2035 ...... 49 Table 5 ‐1 Type of Accommodation...... 52 Table 5 ‐2 Property Type by Tenure (%) ...... 53 Table 5 ‐3 Number of Bedrooms by Tenure ...... 54 Table 5 ‐4 Under / Over‐Occupation by Tenure ...... 55 Table 5 ‐5 Reason For Inadequacy...... 59 Table 5 ‐6 Reason For Inadequacy by SHMA Area...... 60 Table 6 ‐1 Land Registry Average House Prices (£) ‐ All Buyers Quarter 4 2011 ...... 64 Table 6 ‐2 Sales Transactions Quarter 2 2009 / Quarter 4 2011 ...... 65 Table 6 ‐3 Sales Transactions Quarter 4 2010 & Quarter 4 2011 ...... 65 Table 6 ‐4 Percentage of Sales by Type for Quarter 4 2011 ...... 65 Table 6 ‐5 Sub‐Area Structure...... 67 Table 6 ‐6 Entry Sales Levels (£) in the County – February 2012...... 69 Table 6 ‐7 Maximum Monthly Mortgage / Rent of Concealed Households...... 70 Table 6 ‐8 Single Income Thresholds (£)...... 71 Table 6 ‐9 Dual / Couple Income Thresholds...... 71 Table 6 ‐10 Concealed Households – Incomes Needed to Buy (Single Income) and % Unable to Buy ...... 71 Table 6 ‐11 Shared Ownership Costs, Incomes Required and Affordability ...... 72 Table 6 ‐12 Average and Entry Rent Levels, February 2012 (£ p/m) ...... 73 Table 6 ‐13 Rental Income Thresholds – February 2012 ...... 74 Table 6 ‐14 Concealed Households – Incomes Needed and % Unable to Rent in the Private Market...... 74 Table 6 ‐15 Average Social Rent up to 80% of Average Private Sector Rent ...... 75

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Table 6 ‐16 Percentage of Households able to Afford Monthly Rents ...... 77 Table 6 ‐17 Parishes with a high proportion of Second Homes...... 78 Table 7 ‐1 Location of Previous Dwelling (In‐migrants)...... 80 Table 7 ‐2 Reason for Moving for those Moving into the County ...... 80 Table 7 ‐3 Location of Move for those Moving Outside the County ...... 81 Table 7 ‐4 Reason for Moving Out of the County ...... 82 Table 7 ‐5 Net Migration Patterns ...... 83 Table 7 ‐6 Location of Previous Dwelling by 37 areas ...... 84 Table 7 ‐7 Location of Previous Dwelling by SHMA Area...... 84 Table 8 ‐1 Households Moving by Current Tenure...... 85 Table 8 ‐2 Reasons Preventing a Move...... 86 Table 8 ‐3 Current Tenure / Tenure Preferred (Existing Households) ...... 87 Table 8 ‐4 Concealed Household Formation in the Next Five Years?...... 88 Table 8 ‐5 Age of Concealed Households ...... 88 Table 8 ‐6 Number of Children ...... 89 Table 8 ‐7 Time of Move ‐ Concealed Households ...... 89 Table 8 ‐8 Tenure Needed / Preferred (Concealed Households)...... 90 Table 9 ‐1 When is the Accommodation Required (Existing Households) ...... 92 Table 9 ‐2 Type of Accommodation Required (Existing Households)...... 92 Table 9 ‐3 Number of Bedrooms Required (Existing Households) ...... 92 Table 9 ‐4 Type Required by Size Required (Existing Households)...... 93 Table 9 ‐5 Type Required by Preferred Tenure (Existing Households) ...... 94 Table 9 ‐6 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 37 areas...... 95 Table 9 ‐7 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 3 SHMA Areas ...... 95 Table 9 ‐8 Reason for Preferred Location...... 96 Table 9 ‐9 When is the Accommodation Required (Concealed Households)...... 97 Table 9 ‐10 Type of Accommodation that can be realistically afforded / Preferred (Concealed Households) ... 97 Table 9 ‐11 Number of Bedrooms Needed / Preferred (Concealed Households) ...... 98 Table 9 ‐12 Type Needed by Size Needed (Concealed Households) ...... 98 Table 9 ‐13 Type Needed by Tenure Needed (Concealed Households) ...... 99 Table 9 ‐14 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) by 37 areas ...... 99 Table 9 ‐15 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) by 3 SHMA Areas...... 100 Table 9 ‐16 Reason for Preferred Location (Concealed Households)...... 100 Table 9 ‐17 Demand for Market Housing to 2017 ...... 101 Table 9 ‐18 Total Demand for Market Housing by Size to 2017 ...... 102 Table 10 ‐1 When is the Accommodation Required (Existing Households) ...... 104 Table 10 ‐2 Type by Size Required (Existing Households)...... 105 Table 10 ‐3 Type Required by Required Tenure (Existing Households)...... 105 Table 10 ‐4 Size Required by Required Tenure (Existing Households) ...... 106 Table 10 ‐5 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 37 areas...... 106 Table 10 ‐6 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 3 SHMA Areas ...... 106 Table 10 ‐7 Reason for Preferred Location (Existing Households)...... 107 Table 10 ‐8 When is the Accommodation Required (Concealed Households)...... 108 Table 10 ‐9 Type Needed by Size Needed (Concealed Households) ...... 108 Table 10 ‐10 Type Needed by Tenure Needed (Concealed Households) ...... 109 Table 10 ‐11 Size Needed by Tenure Needed (Concealed Households)...... 110 Table 10 ‐12 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) ...... 111 Table 10 ‐13 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) ...... 111 Table 10 ‐14 Reason for Preferred Location (Concealed Households)...... 112 Table 10 ‐15 Social Stock, Waiting List Need and Social Turnover ...... 113 Table 11 ‐1 Disability by Tenure ...... 115 Table 11 ‐2 Age of Disabled Household Members ...... 116 Table 11 ‐3 Nature of Disability ...... 116 Table 11 ‐4 Outstanding Support Needs...... 117 Table 11 ‐5 Adaptations by Tenure...... 118 Table 11 ‐6 Types of Adaptations Provided / Needed to Current Home...... 118 Table 12 ‐1 Accommodation Required by Older Relatives in Next 5 Years ...... 120 Table 12 ‐2 Type by Tenure for Households aged 65+ ...... 125

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Table 12 ‐3 Savings by Tenure ...... 126 Table 12 ‐4 Level of Equity in Present Accommodation ...... 127 Table 12 ‐5 Type of Supported Accommodation Required ...... 127 Table 12 ‐6 Projected Housing Need of 75+ Year Olds...... 129 Table 12 ‐7 Sheltered Housing Demand to 2017...... 130 Table 13 ‐1 Ethnic Origin...... 133 Table 13 ‐2 Gross Annual Income of BME Households...... 134 Table 13 ‐3 Property Type by Number of Bedrooms...... 135 Table 13 ‐4 Inadequacy of Present Accommodation...... 136 Table 13 ‐5 Reasons Preventing a Move ...... 137 Table 13 ‐6 Reasons for Moving Out of Northumberland ...... 137 Table 13 ‐7 Type of Housing Required (BME Existing Households Moving)...... 138 Table 13 ‐8 Size of Property Required (BME Existing Households Moving) ...... 138 Table 13 ‐9 Tenure Required (BME Existing Households Moving) ...... 139 Table 14 ‐1 Types of Housing Deemed Unsuitable...... 140 Table 14 ‐2 Over‐crowded and Concealed Households...... 142 Table 14 ‐3 Current Housing Need (Gross) ...... 143 Table 14 ‐4 Time of Move – Concealed Households...... 143 Table 14 ‐5 Double Counting Removal ...... 144 Table 14 ‐6 Future Need (Gross per Year) ...... 144 Table 14 ‐7 New Affordable Housing Supply 2009 to 2011...... 145 Table 14 ‐8 2008 to 2011 Right to Buy / Demolitions...... 146 Table 14 ‐9 Council / RP Social Rent Re‐let Supply (CORE 2009 to 2011)...... 146 Table 14 ‐10 Affordable Housing Supply ...... 147 Table 14 ‐11 Annual Affordable Need and Supply...... 149 Table 15 ‐1 Social and Affordable Rented need by bedroom size...... 156

FIGURES Figure 1 ‐1 Occupation Type of Head of Household ...... 10 Figure 1 ‐2 Forecast Change in Population Age Bands, Northumberland 2011‐2035 ...... 11 Figure 1 ‐3 % Change of 65+ (2011 – 2035) ...... 11 Figure 1 ‐4 Market and Social Stock by Number of Bedrooms ...... 12 Figure 1 ‐5 Adequacy by Tenure ...... 13 Figure 1 ‐6 Average House Prices by Type, Quarter 4 2011...... 14 Figure 1 ‐7 Tenure of General Stock Occupied by Older People – County‐wide (%) ...... 17 Figure 1 ‐8 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People – County‐wide ...... 17 Figure 1 ‐9 Sheltered Housing Demand to 2017...... 17 Figure 4 ‐1 Forecast Change in Population Age Bands, Northumberland 2011‐2035 ...... 47 Figure 4 ‐2 Population Age Band Forecast Northumberland 2008 – 2035 ...... 47 Figure 4 ‐3 Population Age Band Forecast, 65+ Northumberland 2011 – 2035 ...... 49 Figure 4 ‐4 % Change of 65+ 2011 – 2035...... 49 Figure 5 ‐1 Number of Bedrooms ...... 54 Figure 5 ‐2 Market and Social Stock by Number of Bedrooms ...... 55 Figure 5 ‐3 Shared Facilities ...... 57 Figure 5 ‐4 Adequacy by Tenure ...... 58 Figure 5 ‐5 Main reasons for Inadequacy in the Social rented sector ...... 58 Figure 6 ‐1 Average House Prices by Type, Quarter 4 2011...... 63 Figure 6 ‐2 Housing Sales by Type in Northumberland...... 66 Figure 6 ‐3 County Affordable Rent Levels ...... 76 Figure 12 ‐1 Type of General Stock Occupied by Older People ‐ County‐wide (%)...... 121 Figure 12 ‐2 Type of General Stock Occupied by Older People at SHMA Area (%)...... 121 Figure 12 ‐3 Tenure of General Stock Occupied by Older People – County‐wide (%) ...... 122 Figure 12 ‐4 Tenure of General Stock Occupied by Older People – SHMA Area (%) ...... 122 Figure 12 ‐5 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People – County‐wide ...... 123 Figure 12 ‐6 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People – SHMA Area ...... 123 Figure 12 ‐7 Type of Accommodation Required by Older People...... 124 Figure 12 ‐8 Tenure Required by Moving Households Aged 65+...... 124 Figure 12 ‐9 Property Size Required by Existing Moving Households (65+) ...... 126

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APPENDICES Appendix I Postal Questionnaire Appendix II Promotional Poster Appendix III Land Registry Data Appendix IV Secondary Data Sources Appendix V Affordable Rent Level Analysis

8 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 Background & Context 1.1.1 The core of this project was to identify a robust evidence for future base to support the targets to be set in the Local Development Framework Documents, and local housing and planning policies for delivery at local level. 1.1.2 It is now essential to assess the future demand and need for housing in the County by tenure, type and size to inform future development of market housing and to inform affordable housing targets in each of the SHMA areas. 1.1.3 The survey identifies the needs of special housing groups, i.e. BME, Older Persons whose requirements are different to those of general households and may require specific support strategies. 1.1.4 The assessment process will involve consultation with the Local Housing Partnership Group of Local Authority personnel and key delivery partners.

1.2 Methodology 1.2.1 The study consists of the following elements:‐ ¾ Analysis of primary data from a postal and online household survey completed by 5,984 households across 3 SHMA areas / 37 sub‐areas. ¾ In depth analysis of the County and sub‐regional housing markets to assess affordability through internet and telephone surveys with key estate agents in relation to the delivery, cost and supply of market access level properties and in the private rented sector. ¾ Secondary data analysis, including a strategic review of the 2001 Census, County Population Growth and Housing Model, LDF documents and saved policies of the former district Local Plans, Nomis, Land Registry, Housing Strategy and the Housing Register and HSSA Returns. 1.2.2 4.4% of all households in the County took part in the survey achieving a response rate of 30.4%; 5,984 questionnaires were returned. The confidence interval was ± 1.29% at County level and ranged from ± 10.0% to ± 6.23% in the 37 sub‐areas. 1.2.3 The 3 Market areas range from ± 1.79% to ± 2.44%, better than the levels of + 5% for SHMA areas, normally used in housing research. 1.2.4 It should be noted that the “numbers implied” column inserted in some of the tables is DCA’s assessment of the total numbers to be derived after applying the appropriate weighting factor based on ward location and tenure responses to that sub‐area’s household numbers.

9 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

1.3 The Economic Climate 1.3.1 The economic climate, changes in national and regional economic policy, alongside labour market trends and local income trends, sets the context in which households make decisions about their housing needs and preferences. 1.3.2 54.4% of heads of households were in employment and 34.9% were retired. 1.3.3 57.8% described themselves as professional or managerial / technical; Figure 1 ‐1 Occupation Type of Head of Household

Occupation Type

9.80% 8.00%

5.70% 42.80%

11.50%

7.20% 15.00%

Professional Managerial & Technical Skilled, non‐manual Skilled, manual Partially skilled Unskilled Other

Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 1.3.4 58.6% of heads of households worked within the County and 16.6% in Newcastle upon Tyne. 65.7% travel to work by car; 1.3.5 54.1% of all existing households earn below £25,000; 43.7% excluding retired households; 1.3.6 56% have less than £5,000 in savings, over half of whom have no savings; 1.3.7 32.9% indicated an equity holding of over £150,000 but 3.6% of owners are in negative equity; 1.3.8 34.4% of existing households were in receipt of some form of financial support; 1.3.9 72.8% of concealed households have less than £1,000 in savings and 20.6% would be likely to claim Housing Benefit; 1.3.10 25.7% of concealed households earn less than £10,000 and 85.1% earn below the national average level of £26,200; 1.3.11 29.2% of recently formed households earn below £10,000.

1.4 Future Population and Household Change 1.4.1 An important feature in measuring housing needs is to forecast what is likely to happen over the next decade or so in order that provision for new housing can be planned.

10 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

1.4.2 The general demographic forecasts in the tables in this section have been provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and are ONS projections who publish population and household forecasts at Local Authority level for England between 2010 and 2035. The forecasts are 2010 based sub‐national population projections and are the most recent projections available. 1.4.3 20.6% of the population were aged 65+ in 2011 and are forecast to be 32.2% in 2035. 1.4.4 The population of the County is projected to increase by 4.5% in total between 2011 and 2035; 14,100 more people. Figure 1 ‐2 Forecast Change in Population Age Bands, Northumberland 2011‐2035

63.5% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 4.5% 5.0% -18.8% -5.4% -7.7% -5.2% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 0-19 20-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total -20.0%

Age Band (%)

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 1.4.5 The 65+ age group shows a 40,900 increase (63.5%) over the forecast period. 1.4.6 Within that group the 85+ age group shows a massive increase of 173.5%, 14,400 more people including 7,000 more in the 90+ group an increase of 241% by 2035. Figure 1 ‐3 % Change of 65+ (2011 – 2035)

250

200

150 100

50

0 65‐69 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85‐89 90+ Age Band

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 1.4.7 All age groups up to 64 fall in numbers, by ‐26,800 by 2035; 10.8%.

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1.4.8 The largest age group who responded to the survey in 2012 in Northumberland is the 50‐64, 26.1% of the population. 1.4.9 41.6% of households in the County contain 2 people. 1.4.10 There is forecast to be 25,000 more households in the County by 2035, an increase of more than 18%.

1.5 The Current Housing Stock 1.5.1 Survey data revealed that the property type profile is skewed towards semi‐detached houses and the average number of bedrooms by property across the County is 2.7. 1.5.2 69.1% of properties in the market sector and 73.5% in owner‐occupation are 3 bedrooms or more, compared to 70.7% of properties in the social sector which are 1 and 2 bedrooms. This is survey data that has been weighted by type and size. The Council data suggests that the there is 66.3% 1 and 2 beds in the social sector.

Figure 1 ‐4 Market and Social Stock by Number of Bedrooms

100%

90% 29.3 80%

70% 69.1 60% 3+ 50% 1 & 2 40% 70.7 30%

20% 30.9 10%

0% Market Social

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 1.5.3 The overall over‐occupation level of 1.4% (1,852 implied households), is lower than the average UK level indicated by the Survey of English Housing 2010/11 at 3.0%. 1.5.4 The highest levels of over‐occupation are in private rented accommodation at 3.1% is over double the overall level followed by social rented accommodation at 2.0%. 1.5.5 The overall under‐occupation figure of 41.4% was slightly higher than the average found in recent DCA surveys (around 40%). Under‐occupation was highest in the owner occupied sector, particularly those with no mortgage. 1.5.6 In the social rented sector the levels are lower but suggest around 3,350 properties are under‐occupied by two spare bedrooms, over 40% of the 3 and 4 bedroom stock. 1.5.7 Only 0.8% of households share facilities with other residents, mainly bathroom and kitchen facilities.

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1.5.8 91.0% of respondents said their home was adequate for their needs; 9.0% considered their home inadequate for their needs. Figure 1 ‐5 Adequacy by Tenure

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 1.5.9 The lowest adequacy by tenure was found in the private rented sector at 82.2%. 1.5.10 The main reason for inadequacy County‐wide was that the property needs improvements / repairs (47.1% of households).

1.6 The Housing Market 1.6.1 Hometrack predict average UK house prices to fall by a further 3% in 2012 and remain flat into 2013, rising by 2% in 2014. 1.6.2 The outlook for the housing market is being driven by weak levels of demand, as slow economic growth impacts on (rising) unemployment and squeezes disposable household incomes. 1.6.3 The real growth story in the housing sector for 2012 is in the rental market where demand will remain strong. There is however a limit as to how high rents can go. Hometrack forecast that rental growth will slow in 2012 increasing by 1‐2% outside London. Given the pressure on household incomes it is impressive that rents should continue to rise and Hometrack’s view is that the driver of rental growth is increased demand rather than the capacity of tenants to pay more out of existing incomes. 1.6.4 Around the UK, the time taken to sell ranges from 6.5 weeks in London to a high of 13 weeks in the East Midlands. Time to sell in the North is almost 12 weeks. 1.6.5 The proportion of the asking price achieved has remained largely unchanged over the year tracking in the range of 92% ‐ 93%. But in the North of the country it has started to move lower – suggesting an above average acceleration in price falls over 2012.

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1.7 Affordability and Access to Market Housing 1.7.1 Analysis of indicators of housing market activity were looked at to provide an understanding about changes in demand over time and to identify any pressure points within the County. 1.7.2 Between Quarter 4 2010 and Quarter 4 2011 house prices in the County fell by 1.4%, compared with an increase of 5.8% in the North Region. 1.7.3 The average house price in the County in Quarter 4 2011 was £160,047, ranging from £94,112 for a flat to £263,486 for a detached property. Figure 1 ‐6 Average House Prices by Type, Quarter 4 2011

Average House Price Detached Semi‐Detached Terraced Flat / Maisonette Overall (£) £700,000

£600,000

£500,000

£400,000

£300,000

£200,000

£100,000

£0 Northumberland North Region England and Wales Detached £263,486 £230,984 £324,324 Semi‐Detached £135,088 £131,615 £195,784 Terraced £119,214 £107,429 £185,237 Flat / Maisonette £94,112 £103,343 £221,072 Overall £160,047 £138,562 £228,388

Source: Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 4 2011, © Crown Copyright 1.7.4 The number of sales in the County has increased by 7.3% over a two year period (2009‐2011). However sales fell by 1.4% over the year to December 2011. 1.7.5 In the County the highest proportion of sales in Quarter 4 2011 was for semi‐ detached properties at 31.9% compared with only 10.4% for flats / maisonettes. 1.7.6 Entry level stock in the County is considered to be flats / maisonettes. Property prices start at £49,000 for a 1 bedroom flat in Northumberland South East. 1.7.7 The cheapest entry level property requires an income of £13,300 (single income household) in Northumberland South East. 41.2% of concealed households earn below this amount and therefore cannot purchase in the market. 1.7.8 The lowest entry level rents for a 1 bedroom flat is £320 per month and £375 per month for a 2‐bedroom flat in Northumberland South East. 1.7.9 42.2% of concealed households say they could not afford to pay more than £300 per month and are therefore priced out of the private rental market. 1.7.10 An income of at least £15,400 per annum is required to be able to afford the cheapest private rental property in the County. 51.1% of concealed households achieved this level of income.

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1.8 Second Homes 1.8.1 Northumberland Council data shows that there are currently 2,512 second homes in the County which is 1.83% of all households. The level of second homes in small coastal communities is very high and has a major impact on the local housing market. The private rented sector also has limited availability, because supply for long term letting is low and the majority of homes are let in the holiday market.

1.9 Migration and Moving Households 1.9.1 9,148 implied households had in‐migrated to Northumberland over the last three years from outside the County, 11.0% had moved from ‘elsewhere in the UK’ and 6.4% from Newcastle upon Tyne. 1.9.2 The main reason for the move into the County in the last three years was family reasons at 54.3%. 1.9.3 20.1% of in‐migrating households moved in to form their first household. 1.9.4 Of those who had moved within the County, 1,858 implied; 9.6% had moved from Blyth, 1,749 implied; 9.0% from Cramlington / East Hartford and 1,313 implied; 6.8% from Berwick / Spittal / Tweedmouth / East Ord. 1.9.5 Over the next five years 20.3% of existing households and 11.7% of concealed households are expected to move out of the County. 1.9.6 In the case of both existing and concealed households the main single interest was in moving to “elsewhere in the UK”. 1.9.7 The main reason for the out‐migration for existing households was family reasons at 44.4% and for concealed households it was employment / access to work at 57.5%. 1.9.8 The main in‐migration was from Newcastle upon Tyne at +1,312, followed by elsewhere in the UK at + 854. The only net out‐migration was to the Scottish Borders at ‐ 85 and abroad at ‐ 56. 1.9.9 Over the past 5 years there was a net in‐migration of 3,658 households into the County. Office of National Statistics only records data up to 2010, therefore we can only compare data from 2005‐2010 and the net in‐migration figure for that period is 4,600.

1.10 Households Intending to Move 1.10.1 14.2% of all households planned a move within the County in the next 5 years. 1.10.2 7,004 existing households require market housing and 3,430 need affordable housing. 1.10.3 2,315 concealed households require market housing and 2,665 need affordable housing. 1.10.4 The main tenure requirement for existing households was owner occupation and concealed households were for social rent. 1.10.5 There are around 7,925 households who wish to move within the County but cannot do so, 61.0% of whom are unable to afford to buy a home.

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1.11 Households Moving To Market Housing 1.11.1 5,975 existing households are planning a move to owner occupied housing and 1,029 are planning a move to private rented housing. 911 concealed households are planning a move to owner occupied housing, 1,404 to private rent. 1.11.2 41.3% existing households 27.8% of concealed households plan to move within one year. 1.11.3 In the County as a whole, the main type of property required is detached and semi‐ detached houses and the majority of movers require a 3 bedroom unit. 1.11.4 The most popular choice in terms of location was Blyth followed by Morpeth for both existing and concealed households. Reflecting the higher population in these areas who wish to remain in the area they currently live. 1.11.5 The most popular reasons for both existing and concealed households in their choice of location were nearness to family / friends and always lived here.

1.12 Households Moving to Affordable Housing 1.12.1 Demand for affordable housing from existing moving households to 2017 was 3,430 units. 3,348 implied for Social rented. There was interest of 82 units for RP shared ownership. 1.12.2 2,665 concealed households are looking for affordable housing. 2,361 intend to move to social rented, 115 to shared ownership accommodation and 189 to shared equity. 1.12.3 39% of existing households and 35.7% of concealed households moving to affordable housing plan to move within 1 year. 1.12.4 Urban Northumberland locations were the most popular for both existing and concealed households moving within the County, most notably for Blyth. 1.12.5 Nearness to family / friends was the most common reason for choice of location of both existing and concealed households.

1.13 Housing Needs of Disabled People 1.13.1 25.7% (34,379 implied) households included a member with a disability. 1.13.2 50.5% of all disabled household members were over the age of 65. 1.13.3 54% of disabled households have a walking difficulty. 1.13.4 16.5% (3,085 implied) households stated they had outstanding support needs. 1.13.5 11% of properties (14,540 implied) had been adapted. The survey found some mismatch between wheelchair adapted and properties where people with a wheelchair actually live.

1.14 Housing Needs of Older People (aged 65+ years) 1.14.1 The main type of housing occupied by older people is semi‐detached houses (27.1%), followed by bungalow (20.1%).

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1.14.2 The majority of older people are owner occupiers with no mortgage (52.9%). Figure 1 ‐7 Tenure of General Stock Occupied by Older People – County‐wide (%)

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 1.14.3 The size of property currently occupied by older people is mainly 3 bedroom accommodation (39.8%). Figure 1 ‐8 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People – County‐wide

Bedsit 0.6%

1 bedroom 14.6%

2 bedrooms 31.3%

3 bedrooms 39.8%

4 bedrooms 11.2%

5+ bedrooms 2.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 1.14.4 Older people planning a move within the County would prefer to move to owner occupied accommodation (53.9%). Their preferred type would be a bungalow (53.3%) and they would prefer 2 bedrooms (49.8%). 1.14.5 69.2% of respondents aged over 65 indicated equity ownership of over £100,000 and 27.5% stated they had savings over £30,000. 1.14.6 Demand for supported accommodation (other than sheltered) is predominantly for independent accommodation with visiting support. 1.14.7 There is a combined requirement to 2017 of 8,751 units of sheltered accommodation for existing older households and those who may in‐migrate to be near family (see 12.7.1). 5,959 are in the affordable sector and 2,792 in the private sector. Figure 1 ‐9 Sheltered Housing Demand to 2017 Private Market Affordable Sector All Sectors Existing Households 292 925 1,217 In‐migrant Households 2,500 5,034 7,534 Total 2,792 5,959 8,751

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1.14.8 There was a level of need expressed for 2,409 extra care units from existing households (178) and older people who may move into the County (2,231) to 2017.

1.15 Housing Needs of Black & Minority Ethnic Needs 1.15.1 85 Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) survey respondents provide statistical validity of + 10.85%. This sample represents 2,025 implied households which have been drawn from the survey and analysed separately to give an insight into the specific housing needs of BME households in Northumberland. 1.15.2 There are fewer BME households with no earnings (5.6%) than the whole population (7.0%). 1.15.3 47.1% of BME households who responded to the survey are living in detached houses. Only 5.6% live in flat / maisonette. 1.15.4 48.5% of those BME households who said their home was inadequate cited that it needed improvement / repairs. 1.15.5 21.2% of BME households had a member with a disability. 70.4% had a walking difficulty. 1.15.6 100.0% of BME households, who wished to move but stated an inability to do so, specified this was because they were unable to afford to buy a home. 1.15.7 60.3% of BME households moving out of Northumberland were doing so for family reasons. 1.15.8 72.4% of existing BME households moving within the County in the next three years stated they required a bungalow. 81.3% required a 2 bedroom property and 77.5% stated social rent as their preferred tenure. 1.15.9 103 concealed BME households were found to be forming within the County over the next three years. 62.0% said they could realistically afford a flat / maisonette; and 49.4% say they need social rented accommodation. 62.5% require a 2‐bedroom property.

1.16 Future Housing Demand Demand for Market Housing 1.16.1 National Planning Policy Framework (March 2012) identifies the Government’s core objective of providing a variety of high quality market housing and addressing any shortfalls that apply in the market sector. Authorities are required to plan for a full range of types and sizes of market housing to meet the needs of the whole community, so that provision is made for family, single person, and multi‐person households. 1.16.2 The 2012 HNS weighted data indicates that over 69% of the owner occupied stock is three bedroom properties, with only around 30% one and two bedrooms. 1.16.3 The demographic change forecasts however, highlight significant growth in older households and it is recommended that to create a more balanced housing stock, future market development delivery proportions could be 60% 1 and mainly 2 bedrooms and 40% 3 and mainly 4 or more bedrooms.

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Affordable Housing Need and Supply 1.16.4 The CLG Needs Assessment Model is used to calculate the annual shortfall of social housing units. The key figures are detailed below, based on addressing the backlog over a 5 and a 10 year period. 1.16.5 Based on addressing the backlog over 5 years, there is a significant need for affordable housing totalling 382 units each year across the County after taking account of supply from existing stock turnover only. 1.16.6 This scale cannot be delivered and the outstanding need based on addressing the backlog over 10 years should be the basis for the calculation of affordable housing targets from the total average annual future new delivery. 1.16.7 The net affordable need addressing the backlog over a 10 year basis, after re‐lets but before new unit delivery is 242 units each year, 27% of the full annual housing allocation each year, close to 30% level considered to be economically viable. 1.16.8 The previous Regional Spatial Strategy target for Northumberland made provision for an annual average of 895 new units a year over the five years to 2016. 1.16.9 Based on the robust evidence found in this assessment, an overall affordable housing target of 30% of new units could be justified to be negotiated from all suitable sites, subject to the critical balance of tenure mix on viability. 1.16.10 At a 30% affordable target around 270 units a year could be delivered. 1.16.11 However, because the lower value urban area sites are unlikely to achieve a 30% target, higher proportions will need to be negotiated in the other two housing market areas where the social housing stock levels are much lower and property prices are higher. This would be a critical means of creating a more balanced and better housing offer in each market area within the County.

Tenure Mix Targets 1.16.12 NPPF requires that the SHMA identifies scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures needed over the plan period. Tenure mix targets within affordable housing, which may vary by location within the County to take account of demand, need and current affordable supply at local sub‐area level will be required. 1.16.13 The tenure balance of new affordable delivery over the last three years up to March 2011 has been 67% social rent and 33% intermediate housing. 1.16.14 It will be very difficult to sustain high social rent levels if schemes in regeneration areas are to be successful in terms of strategy and also be viable. However it is important to take account of the fact that in both stock and availability from turnover, the social rented sector provides an average of nearly 110 times the scale of units (1,405) to those estimated from shared ownership (13) each year. 1.16.15 Around 400 existing households moving and concealed households forming express interest in shared ownership or shared equity over the next 5 years, 80 a year on average, close to 30% of the total affordable delivery.

19 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

1.16.16 The overall affordable housing tenure mix balance to address local need could be set therefore at 67% for social rent and 33% intermediate housing, but should be subject to a wider range of social stock turnover supply and other planning, regeneration and development viability factors at local site level.

Social Stock Size 1.16.17 Three bedroom properties are 32% of the current social stock and 3,350, almost 40% of them, are under‐occupied by two spare bedrooms. 1.16.18 The current needs level for a small unit is 86% of the waiting list, but these turn over more regularly than family units. The waiting list, in particular for one bedroom properties, contains a number of households who have very low priority. 1.16.19 In view of the need to focus on priority needs households, a level of 65% of future delivery in the affordable rented sector should be one and two bedroom units. 1.16.20 In view of the increasing older population, it is now even more important to achieve a better flow of the under‐occupied, family sized social rented stock as a means to help address the scale of need for family units. New delivery strategies should be linked to the need for older persons housing particularly Extra Care and targeted to under‐occupying households. 1.16.21 Achieving a better flow of family units should also have a cascade effect, increasing turnover of all smaller unit sizes as households are able to transfer to larger units to meet their need. In effect up to four household moves could result from one new older persons unit. 1.16.22 The relatively extreme problem of access to four bedroom stock should be a priority as these larger family households are almost certain to be currently living in over‐ crowded conditions. 1.16.23 Achieving improved flow of three bedroom properties will help to address the need for them, and most of the new unit delivery of family units should be four bedrooms. A broad target of 35% could be set for family sized units.

Intermediate Property Size 1.16.24 Almost 80 households a year express an interest in shared equity or shared ownership. 40% say they need one and 60 % two bedrooms. 1.16.25 A summary of the size requirements for all tenures is shown in the table below. Table 1 ‐1 Future Delivery by Bedroom Size and Tenure Bedroom Size (%) Tenure 1‐Bed 2‐Bed 3‐ Bed 4‐ Bed + Market Sector 60% 40% Intermediate 40% 60% 0 Social Rented 65% 35%

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1.17 Key Recommendations

Balancing the Housing Market 1.17.1 Ensure that future new development provides a mix of housing types and sizes to meet the needs of all households. 1.17.2 Providing a better balanced housing stock should however be the key criteria for the authority to be able to provide sustainable developments and communities. 1.17.3 Develop policies for market housing so that new stock meets demand not addressed by existing stock turnover.

Affordable Housing Targets 1.17.4 Based on the robust evidence found in this assessment there is a need for 242 affordable units a year before new unit delivery (based on 10 years backlog). 1.17.5 This scale of need provides strong support to an overall affordable housing target of 30% of all new delivery, subject to viability. 1.17.6 These targets should vary between housing market areas so that future delivery assists in creating more sustainable and balanced housing markets and communities in each area. 1.17.7 Delivery of affordable housing for older people should be prioritised to provide a range of housing to meet the needs of the growing older population and targeted at local area level to improve current social stock turnover.

Affordable Tenure Mix Targets 1.17.8 There is interest in shared ownership from almost 80 existing and concealed households a year justifying the overall affordable tenure mix target set at 33% intermediate housing and 67% for social rent. This mix balance will be critical to viability and may vary at sub‐area and site level. 1.17.9 The Survey data will remain valid until 2017 at which stage it will need to be fully updated as required in Guidance. The assessment should be monitored and updated annually.

Property Size Targets 1.17.10 Consider social rented housing property size targets of 65% one and two bedroom flats and terraced houses (mainly two) to meet the needs of single, couple and small family households. 1.17.11 35% of units should be three and mainly four bedroom houses to address the needs of larger families. 1.17.12 Intermediate market housing should be 40% one and 60% two bedrooms. 1.17.13 To assist developers in relation to a property mix which would best meet the future demand in the market sector, levels of 60% one and two bedroom units (mainly two) and 40% 3 and mainly 4 bedroom units should be provided as a guide at County level.

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Making Best Use of the Existing Stock 1.17.14 Addressing the under‐occupation within the existing 3 and 4 bedroom social housing stock to assist in resolving over‐crowding and making best use of the stock should be a housing priority and linked closely to new affordable delivery.

Older Persons Housing Needs 1.17.15 Address the current and future growth in older people and frail older households across all tenures and their related care and support needs. The on‐going development of Older Persons Housing Strategies should consider:‐ ¾ The need for support services and adaptation required to enable people to remain in their own home; ¾ The type, scale and quality of existing sheltered stock in meeting today’s housing standards and preferences; ¾ The future need for ‘extra care’ accommodation for the growing frail older population.

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2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY

2.1 Background and Context 2.1.1 The methodology adopted for this Assessment utilises a mix of primary and secondary data from local and national sources which are appropriately identified where used throughout the Report. 2.1.2 The core of this project was to identify a robust evidence for future base to support the targets to be set in the Local Development Framework Documents, and local housing and planning policies for delivery at local level. 2.1.3 It is now essential to assess the future demand and need for housing in the County by tenure, type and size to inform future development of market housing and to inform affordable housing targets in each of the SHMA areas. 2.1.4 The survey will identify the needs of special housing groups, i.e. BME, Older Persons whose requirements are different to those of general households and may require specific support strategies. 2.1.5 Although this study is not a SHMA, the Brief requires identical data and key outputs and we will closely follow the 2007 CLG Practice Guidance process (to which DCA contributed as it was developed), particularly in the style of the Report. 2.1.6 The assessment process will involve consultation with the Local Housing Partnership Group of local authority personnel and key delivery partners.

2.2 Purpose, Aims and Objectives 2.2.1 The purpose of the study was to undertake a comprehensive and robust assessment to obtain high quality information about current and future housing needs at a local authority level and to inform the development of polices and underpin local housing strategies. 2.2.2 The objectives of the study were to:‐ ¾ Support future housing strategy to meet the criteria set out by Communities and Local Government (CLG) in its good practice guidance and the Housing Strategy Guidance and to prioritise investment decisions; ¾ Co‐ordinate housing and community care strategies; ¾ Inform the Council’s affordable housing policies in the Local Development Framework and assist in target setting for site development briefs and for negotiation in accordance with the NPPF.

23 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

2.3 The Local Area 2.3.1 A SHMA area structure was agreed with the Council and consisted of grouping the County into 37 sub‐areas. The structure is detailed in Table 2 ‐1 below. Table 2 ‐1 Sub‐Area Structure Sub‐Areas Wards contained within 1 Edward, Elizabeth, Prior, Seton, Shielfield, Spittal 2 Islandshire, Norhamshire 3 Cheviot, Flodden, Ford, Lowick 4 Wooler 5 Bamburgh, Belford 6 Beadnell, North Sunderland Alnmouth and Lesbury, Embleton, Hedgeley, Longframlington, Longhoughton with 7 Craster and Rennington, Shilbottle, Warkworth 8 Alnwick Castle, Alnwick Clayport, Alnwick Hotspur 9 Rothbury and South Rural, Harbottle and Elsdon, Whittingham 10 Amble Central, Amble East, Amble West 11 Chevington 12 Ulgham 13 Morpeth Central, Morpeth Kirkhill, Morpeth North, Morpeth South, Morpeth Stobhill 14 Hebron, Hepscott and Mitford, Pegswood, Stannington 15 Hartburn, Longhorsley 16 Bellingham, Redesdale, Upper North Tyne, Wanney 17 Chollerton with Whittington, Humshaugh and Wall, Warden and Newbrough, Wark 18 Haltwhistle 19 Hadrian, West Tynedale 20 Allendale 21 Haydon 22 Acomb, Slaley and Hexhamshire 23 Hexham Hencotes, Hexham Leazes, Hexham Priestpopple 24 Broomhaugh and Riding, Corbridge, Sandhoe with Dilston East Tynedale, Heddon‐on‐the‐Wall, Ovingham, South Tynedale, Stocksfield with 25 Mickley, Wylam 26 Prudhoe Castle, Prudhoe North, Prudhoe South, Prudhoe West 27 Stamfordham 28 Ponteland East, Ponteland North, Ponteland South, Ponteland West 29 Ellington, Lynemouth 30 Bothal, Central, College, Haydon, Hirst, Park, Seaton 31 Newbiggin East ,Newbiggin West 32 Choppington, Guide Post, Stakeford 33 Sleekburn 34 Bedlington Central, Bedlington East, Bedlington West Cowpen, Croft, Isabella, Kitty Brewster, Newsham & New Delaval, Plessey, South Beach, 35 South Newsham, Wensleydale Cramlington East,, Cramlington Eastfield with East Hartford, Cramlington North, 36 Cramlington Parkside, Cramlington South East, Cramlington Village, Cramlington West 37 Hartley, Holywell, Seaton Delaval, Seghill

24 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

2.3.2 The data tables are broken down by the 37 sub‐areas. However for analysis the County was further combined from the 37 sub‐areas into 3 Market Areas for analysis.

2.4 SHMA Area Structure for Analysis 2.4.1 The 3 SHMA area structure was identified by the previous SHMA and agreed with the Council and consisted of grouping the County from the 37 areas further into the 3 recognised SHMA areas. The structure is detailed in Table 2 ‐1 below, colour coded to correspond with the map below. Table 2 ‐2 SHMA Area Structure SHMA Areas Sub‐Areas contained within North Northumberland 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, City Region Commuter 27, 28, 29 Urban Northumberland 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37

2.4.2 A map of the 3 SHMA areas in Northumberland is shown below.

25 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

2.5 Methodology 2.5.1 The study consists of the following elements:‐ ¾ Analysis of primary data from a postal household survey completed by 5,984 households across 3 SHMA areas / 37 Ward based sub‐areas; ¾ In depth analysis of the County and sub‐regional housing markets to assess affordability through internet and telephone surveys with key estate agents in relation to the delivery, cost and supply of market access level properties and in the private rented sector; ¾ Secondary data analysis, including a strategic review of the 2001 Census, County Population Growth and Housing Model, Local Plan, Nomis, Land Registry, Housing Strategy, LDF documents and the Housing Register and HSSA Returns. 2.5.2 The questionnaire was designed in consultation with Council officers and based upon tried and tested questionnaires used in previous comparable assessments. 2.5.3 The questionnaire was designed to gather a comprehensive range of information on existing and concealed households and was structured in three parts. 2.5.4 Part One sought information about the existing housing situation including:‐ ¾ household composition by gender, age and ethnicity; ¾ house type and number of bedrooms; ¾ adequacy of current housing to meet the households needs; ¾ property repair and improvement requirements; ¾ forms of heating and energy efficiency facilities; ¾ housing costs and income; ¾ employment and travel to work; ¾ disability, support and adaptation needs. 2.5.5 Part Two of the questionnaire collected information on the existing households’ future moving intentions and Part Three on the moving intentions of concealed households. Questions in these two sections included:‐ ¾ when people expect to move; ¾ who is forming new households; ¾ how much they can afford, the household savings and income; ¾ preferred tenure, type, size and location of the housing they require; ¾ The survey questionnaire is provided as Appendix I to this report. 2.6 Sampling 2.6.1 Sample size depends on two key factors: the degree of accuracy required for the sample and the extent to which there is variation in the population with regard to key characteristics. The most important points to note about these issues are:‐ ¾ Beyond a certain sample size, there is no benefit in a bigger sample in terms of accuracy;

26 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

¾ The size of the population is largely irrelevant for the accuracy of the sample. It is the absolute size of the sample that is important. 2.6.2 The household survey was structured to achieve a 95% confidence rate and selected to ensure that the results reflect the population. Using random sampling, the confidence interval with a sample size of 2,000 households is in the region of 2%. 2.6.3 This means, for example, that if 53% of respondents in a survey do not have central heating then we can be 95% confident that 53% of households plus or minus 2% do not have central heating (i.e. 51% ‐ 55%). 2.6.4 The postal sample was stratified into the 37 sub‐areas as specified at Table 2 ‐1 and selected by random probability from the Council Tax Register. 2.6.5 The main issue is whether non‐respondents are different in some crucial way to responders (e.g. low education, older etc). However, increasing the sample size does not necessarily alleviate this problem if some groups of people systematically do not respond. 2.7 Promotion 2.7.1 A comprehensive promotion campaign of posters (Appendix II) and local press coverage was agreed with the Council to create awareness of the survey, and its importance to the Council. All councillors were contacted to inform them of the survey and enlist their assistance in publicising the survey and maximising the response rate. 2.8 Survey Process and Response 2.8.1 The questionnaires were posted on 4th January 2012, allowing around three weeks for responses, with a closing date of the 25th January 2012. 2.8.2 An assessment of the responses was made following one week of surveys being returned and a booster sample of 100 questionnaires were sent to Sleekburn ward to ensure numbers reached levels to ensure statistical validity. It was decided to keep the survey open a further 3 days to maximise the responsem rate fro the booster sample and due to the large level of responses still being received at this date. 2.8.3 4.4% of all households in the County took part in the survey. The response rate by Ward sub‐area and the 3 SHMA areas is detailed in Table 2 ‐3 below. 2.8.4 The survey achieved an overall response rate of 30.4%. The number of households in the County who achieved a response rate of over 30% was 58,509 (42.7%) and the number who achieved below 30% was 78,393 (57.3%). 2.8.5 The highest response rate was achieved in sub‐area 25 ‐ East Tynedale, Heddon‐on‐ the‐Wall, Ovingham, South Tynedale, Stocksfield with Mickley and Wylam achieving a 39.1% response. A further 8 sub‐areas achieved responses ranging between 35 and 39.1%. 15 sub‐areas achieved responses ranging between 30 and 35%. In total just over 60% of the sub‐areas achieved a response rate over 30%. 2.8.6 9 sub‐areas ranged between 25% and 30%. 4 sub‐areas achieved between 20% and 25% and the lowest response was received from area 35 ‐ Cowpen, Croft, Isabella, Kitty Brewster, Newsham & New Delaval, Plessey, South Beach, South Newsham and Wensleydale wards responding at 19.1%.

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Table 2 ‐3 Response Rate by 37 Areas Postal Postal Online Total % Validity Ward H/holds* Sample Response Response Response Response + Edward, Elizabeth, Prior, Seton, Shielfield, Spittal 5,412 675 171 3 174 25.8 7.58 Islandshire, Norhamshire 2,055 450 155 1 156 34.7 8.01 Cheviot, Flodden, Ford, Lowick 1,654 450 164 0 164 36.4 7.81 Wooler 966 450 163 1 164 36.4 7.81 Bamburgh, Belford 964 450 141 2 143 31.8 8.36 Beadnell, North Sunderland 1,330 450 141 1 142 31.6 8.39 Alnmouth and Lesbury, Embleton, Hedgeley, Longframlington, 5,663 675 232 4 236 35.0 6.51 Longhoughton with Craster and Rennington, Shilbottle, Warkworth Alnwick Castle, Alnwick Clayport, Alnwick Hotspur 3,767 675 179 4 183 27.1 7.39 Rothbury and South Rural, Harbottle and Elsdon, Whittingham 2,405 450 171 4 175 38.9 7.56 Amble Central, Amble East, Amble West 2,933 450 137 1 138 30.7 8.51

Chevington 1,266 450 117 3 120 26.7 9.13 Ulgham 1,502 450 132 3 135 30.0 8.61 Morpeth Central, Morpeth Kirkhill, Morpeth North, Morpeth South, 6,399 673 224 6 230 34.2 6.59 Morpeth Stobhill Hebron, Hepscott and Mitford, Pegswood, Stannington 3,103 450 130 1 131 29.1 8.74 Hartburn, Longhorsley 1,261 450 172 2 174 38.7 7.58 Bellingham, Redesdale, Upper North Tyne, Wanney 1,787 450 157 0 157 34.9 7.98 Chollerton with Whittington, Humshaugh and Wall, Warden and 1,976 450 148 3 151 33.6 8.14 Newbrough, Wark Haltwhistle 1,752 450 120 0 120 26.7 9.13 Hadrian, West Tynedale 1,410 450 148 2 150 33.3 8.16 Allendale 1,039 450 144 1 145 32.2 8.30 Haydon 2,642 450 133 3 136 30.2 8.57 Acomb, Slaley and Hexhamshire 1,122 450 166 3 169 37.6 7.69 Hexham Hencotes, Hexham Leazes, Hexham Priestpopple 4,599 675 252 6 258 38.2 6.23 Broomhaugh and Riding, Corbridge, Sandhoe with Dilston 2,284 450 170 5 175 38.9 7.56 East Tynedale, Heddon‐on‐the‐Wall, Ovingham, South Tynedale, 4,705 450 172 4 176 39.1 7.54 Stocksfield with Mickley, Wylam

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Postal Postal Online Total % Validity Ward H/holds Sample Response Response Response Response + Prudhoe Castle, Prudhoe North, Prudhoe South, Prudhoe West 4,583 675 198 6 204 30.2 7.00 Stamfordham 701 450 137 4 141 31.3 8.42 Ponteland East, Ponteland North, Ponteland South, Ponteland West 4,529 675 220 3 223 33.0 6.70 Ellington, Lynemouth 2,105 450 126 5 131 29.1 8.74

Bothal, Central, College, Haydon, Hirst, Park, Seaton 11,867 675 147 2 149 22.1 8.19 Newbiggin East ,Newbiggin West 2,877 450 97 3 100 22.2 10.0 Choppington, Guide Post, Stakeford 4,416 675 155 0 155 23.0 8.03 Sleekburn 1,956 550 115 1 116 21.1 9.28 Bedlington Central, Bedlington East, Bedlington West 5,116 675 169 2 171 25.3 7.65 Cowpen, Croft, Isabella, Kitty Brewster, Newsham & New Delaval, Plessey, 15,060 675 125 4 129 19.1 8.80 South Beach, South Newsham, Wensleydale Cramlington East,, Cramlington Eastfield with East Hartford, Cramlington North, Cramlington Parkside, Cramlington South East, Cramlington 12,540 675 176 3 179 26.5 7.47 Village, Cramlington West Hartley, Holywell, Seaton Delaval, Seghill 7,156 675 182 2 184 27.3 7.37 Total 136,902 19,673 5,886 98 5,984 30.4 1.29 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey ‐ Table 2 ‐4 Response Rate by 3 SHMA Areas Postal Postal Online Total Validity SHMA Area H/holds % response Sample Responses Response Response + North Northumberland 27,149 5,175 1,654 21 1,675 32.4% 2.44 City Region Commuter 46,660 9,448 3,066 60 3,126 33.1% 1.79 Urban Northumberland 63,093 5,050 1,166 17 1,183 23.4% 2.91 136,902 19,673 5,886 98 5,984 30.4% 1.29 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 2.8.7 Response rates in North Northumberland and City Region Commuter area were similar in percentage terms. The response rate in Urban Northumberland showed a slightly lower response. However the total of over 1,000 responses achieved in the three SHMA areas are equivalent to the total sample in surveys conducted in a London Borough with a population of 100,000 residents. 2.8.8 The three SHMA areas range from ± 1.79% to ± 2.44%, better than the ‘good’ levels of + 5% for sub‐areas suggested in Government Guidance.

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2.9 Data Validity 2.9.1 All areas reached response levels based on household numbers adequate to ensure statistical validity at the confidence level of 95% (discussed in more detail in section 2.6) at sub‐area and County level. 2.9.2 The confidence interval ranged from ± 10.0% to ± 6.23% at 37 sub‐area level; ± 1.79% to ± 2.44% at the three market area level and was ± 1.29% at County level. 2.9.3 These levels both at sub‐area and County level have resulted in a large total sample adequate to ensure that the findings of the survey are representative of the population and sufficiently large to overcome bias.

2.10 Survey Weighting 2.10.1 The data file was checked against the 2001 Census tenure and property type data and the Council’s Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA) for bias and re‐ weighted where necessary. A copy of the weighting carried out in this survey is provided with the Survey Data Tables. 2.10.2 Given the nature of the random sample of households within the agreed sub‐areas in the postal survey, tenure and property type provide the main validation that the sample is representative of the whole population. 2.10.3 The data set out below on household population and tenure is based on the Council Tax number of resident households i.e. excluding vacant properties and second homes. The only known data in 2012 is the social housing stock which has been weighted to the number of units supplied by the Council, by the 37 sub‐areas. 2.10.4 Private sector tenure has been re‐weighted and compared with the 2001 Census data, with allowance for eleven further year’s development. The 2011 Census data will not be available until mid 2013. 2.10.5 The overall data set showing implied numbers (DCA’s assessment of the total numbers to be derived after applying the appropriate weighting factor) is therefore representative of the County population and is the basis for the calculation of all the subsequent tables i.e. all responses are given the weight appropriate to the actual tenure balance. Table 2 ‐5 Tenure of Present Households Question 1 2012 Survey Local Area Census Tenure Nos. implied % 2001 * Owner occupier (paying mortgage) 39.6 54,333 38.4 Owner occupier (no mortgage) 29.3 40,144 28.3 Private rented 10.4 14,174 8.4 Social Rented 19.4 26,518 21.5 Shared Ownership 0.0 41 0.4 Tied to employment 1.3 1,743 3.0 Living rent free Total 100.0 136,953 100.0 *© Crown Copyright (Census)

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2.10.6 19.4% of households are social housing tenants, slightly higher than the national level of 17.7%, and a reduction of 2.1% since the 2001 Census due to Right to Buy sales not being replaced equally by new properties. 2.10.7 The private rented sector constitutes 10.4% of households, slightly higher than the national level of around 9.0%. This group includes those renting from a private landlord or from a friend or relative. 2.10.8 Around 69% of households are now owner occupiers.

2.11 Guidance Model 2.11.1 The Housing Needs Study has been undertaken in line with the 2000 DETR (now CLG) research Local Housing Needs Assessment: ‐ A Guide to Good Practice in assessing people’s preferences as well as their needs. 2.11.2 This study is not a Strategic Housing Market Assessment, but will provide data to inform any Regional Assessment and has taken account of key elements of the CLG Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance (August 2007).

2.12 Definitions 2.12.1 Households that can enter the general market without intervention of any sort can be defined as demand. Those households unable to enter the general market without some form of intervention can be defined as having a housing need. 2.12.2 Affordability is defined by the local relationship between incomes and the prices in the local general housing market. The issue of affordability is central to DCA’s approach. 2.12.3 Within the survey a range of data on actual incomes and costs of housing and the likely future level of incomes and the accessible cost of housing is captured for moving and newly forming households. 2.12.4 DCA also examine secondary data on incomes, house prices and rent levels. Thus a reliable indicator of affordability is derived that leads towards the identification of the scale of affordable need and real options for meeting it.

2.13 Data Sources 2.13.1 The Guidance stresses the importance of using good quality data from a range of sources. 2.13.2 Both extensive secondary data and primary data collected during the 2012 Northumberland Housing Survey have been used. Throughout this Report, the 2012 primary survey data has been used unless indicated otherwise. 2.13.3 It should be noted that although the 2001 Census data provides a vast range of information about households and in some instances is the only data available regarding various household characteristics. The Census data is now 11 years old and the current situation across the County of Northumberland and the benchmark areas may now differ from that recorded in the Census in 2001. 2.13.4 Where possible 2011 Census data has been included but it should be noted that this data was not available at the time of writing the study and these figures have not been used to weight the data.

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2.13.5 All Local, Regional and National documents mentioned in the Report are current at the time of report writing. However these documents are subject to change and may be superseded by revised policy and strategy over time.

2.14 Survey Household Data 2.14.1 It should be noted that the “numbers implied” column inserted in some of the tables is DCA’s assessment of the total numbers to be derived after applying the appropriate weighting factor based on ward location and tenure responses to that sub‐area’s household numbers. 2.14.2 Where multiple choice is not involved, this will generally equate to the household population of the Local Authority as a whole but some individual questions may not be answered by all respondents, giving a marginally lower total. 2.14.3 Where multiple choice questions are involved, two percentage columns are shown. The first percentage column relates to each heading to the total number of actual responses. Those responses are set out at sub‐area level in the accompanying data tables and are the basis of the ‘numbers implied’ column in the report. 2.14.4 The second percentage column relates the same numbers to the number of choices, which in the case of a multiple choice question is likely to give a total in excess of 100% depending on the level of multiple choice made. 2.14.5 All tables included in this report are extracted from the DCA Housing Survey data for Northumberland, unless otherwise indicated. A comparison is also provided for many results throughout this Report to the average of over 250 DCA Housing Assessment Surveys nationally.

32 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

3.1 Key Findings ¾ 54.4% of heads of households were in employment and 34.9% were retired. ¾ 57.8% described themselves as professional or managerial / technical; ¾ 58.6% of heads of households worked within the County and 16.6% in Newcastle upon Tyne. 65.7% travel to work by car; ¾ 54.1% of all existing households earn below £25,000; 43.7% excluding retired households; ¾ 56% have less than £5,000 in savings, over half of whom have no savings; ¾ 32.9% indicated an equity holding of over £150,000 but 3.6% of owners are in negative equity; ¾ 34.4% of existing households were in receipt of some form of financial support; ¾ 72.8% of concealed households have less than £1,000 in savings and 20.6% would be likely to claim Housing Benefit; ¾ 25.7% of concealed households earn less than £10,000 and 85.1% earn below the national average level of £26,200; ¾ 29.2% of recently formed households earn below £10,000;

3.2 Introduction 3.2.1 This section draws together findings from both primary and secondary data sources to present an overview of the current economic climate and the impact on housing need and demand in the County. 3.2.2 The economic climate, changes in national and regional economic policy, alongside labour market trends and local income trends sets the context in which households make decisions about their housing needs and preferences.

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3.3 Education, Employment, Occupation and Work Place Data 3.3.1 The County‐wide survey contained focused questions on employment status, occupation type, and work place of households. Further questions probed for more information on the location of the work place and travel to work patterns. Table 3 ‐1 Employment Status of Head of Household Question 16e Status % Nos. implied Working as an employee 43.6 52,133 Wholly retired from work 34.9 41,725 Self‐employed or freelance 7.0 8,306 Looking after the home 4.2 5,047 Long‐term sick or disabled 3.8 4,526 Working paid or unpaid for your own or your family’s business 2.8 3,316 Away from work ill, on maternity leave, on holiday or temporarily laid off 1.3 1,504 Doing any other kind of paid work 1.0 1,222 Full / part time carer 1.0 1,214 Full time education (age 16+) 0.3 333 On a Government sponsored training scheme 0.1 135 Total 100.0 119,461 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 3.3.2 87.3% of heads of households responded to the question on employment. 43.6% (52,133) of heads of households indicated that they were an employee however a total of 54.4% (64,977) indicated that they were employed in some capacity, the 2011 Census reports 51.7% in employment. 3.3.3 34.9% heads of households were wholly retired from work, higher than our recent DCA survey experience in other areas. 7.0% indicated that they were self‐employed or freelance, lower than the census figure of 9.5% and 4.2% were looking after the home compared to 3.6% at Census. Table 3 ‐2 Occupation Type of Head of Household (Question 16f)

Occupation Type

9.80% 8.00%

5.70% 42.80%

11.50%

7.20% 15.00%

Professional Managerial & Technical Skilled, non‐manual Skilled, manual Partially skilled Unskilled Other

Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012

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3.3.4 57.8% described themselves as professional or managerial / technical and 9.8% described their occupation as ‘other’. Table 3 ‐3 Workplace of Head of Household Question 16g

Workplace % Nos. implied Northumberland 58.6 39,028 North Tyneside 7.2 4,816 South Tyneside 2.0 1,352 Newcastle upon Tyne 16.6 11,055 Gateshead 2.7 1,788 Durham 1.6 1,038 Carlisle 0.6 428 Eden 0.2 151 Scottish Borders 1.1 722 Elsewhere in the UK 3.4 2,249 Abroad 0.5 350 Work from Home 5.5 3,645 Total 100.0 66,622 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.3.5 A fairly high number of heads of household work within the County (58.6%) followed by 16.6% who work in Newcastle upon Tyne. 7.2% work in North Tyneside and 5.5% work from home. 3.3.6 The following question asked heads of household how they travel to work. The main method of transport was by car at 65.7%, and apart from those working from home the next highest method was on foot (9.4%). Only 6.9% travel by public transport. Table 3 ‐4 Travel to Work of Head of Household Question 16h Travel to Work % Nos. implied Driving a Car / Van 65.7 43,306 Bus, minibus or Coach 5.0 3,259 Work mainly at Home 11.3 7,465 On foot 9.4 6,194 Train 1.9 1,218 Motorcycle, scooter, moped 1.7 1,118 Passenger in Car / Van 2.5 1,675 Cycle 1.2 808 Taxi 0.3 179 Other 1.0 688 Total 100.0 65,910 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012

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3.4 Incomes and Housing Costs 3.4.1 Income is a core driver in the local housing market and is the key factor in determining affordability and in the assessment of the scale of housing need. 3.4.2 The DETR 2000 Good Practice Guidance on local housing needs assessments states:‐ “An accurate estimate of household income is one of the most important pieces of information that has to be obtained from a housing needs survey, but it is often the topic that causes the most controversy. Experience from Government surveys e.g. Survey of English Housing (SEH) has shown that by asking the right questions and using good interviewing technique it is possible to get a high response rate and reasonably accurate answers. The decision of the Government not to include an income question in the 2001 Census is one reason why HN surveys, including income questions, will continue to be valuable.” 3.4.3 The availability of good secondary data has not improved and there is still no source of household income information at local authority level. Secondary data relates to individuals and not households and the Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance 2007 states:‐ “Ideally, income data should be linked to house price data to assess affordability but data on household incomes is poor. Consequently, information on household incomes obtained from a robust household survey with a high response rate can be better than secondary income data.” 3.4.4 The survey data was gathered through 5,984 postal and online questionnaires. The response rate on the income question was 72.3% from existing households (99,032 implied) and 81.8% from concealed households (4,342 implied). 3.4.5 The 2000 Good Practice Guidance (page 62) presents a conflict in that having said it is important for surveys to gather income data it then suggests “it is difficult to estimate the incomes of future concealed households”. 3.4.6 New households at this point may have circumstances which change quickly. It suggests therefore that the incomes of households who recently formed should be examined, although even this is not without difficulty. 3.4.7 Particularly in areas where there are shortages of affordable housing and with high house prices, households who accessed the market are only those with adequate income or financial support from parents or family. 3.4.8 As the guide states (page 25) “these are likely to be more reliable, although even here care is needed. Some potential households may not have been able to form owing to lack of suitable, affordable accommodation.”

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3.5 Existing Households 3.5.1 The following group of tables relate to savings, equity and income of existing households, beginning with a question on savings held which was answered by 82.7% of existing households (113,199 implied). Table 3 ‐5 Household Savings Question 17a Savings % Nos. Implied No Savings 30.8 34,851 Under £5,000 25.2 28,581 £5,000 ‐ £10,000 11.3 12,744 £10,001 ‐ £15,000 5.7 6,470 £15,001 ‐ £20,000 4.3 4,904 £20,001 ‐ £30,000 4.3 4,858 Above £30,000 18.4 20,791 100.0 113,199 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.5.2 The data shows over half of the sample (56%) had less than £5,000 in savings. 18.4% had savings in excess of £30,000. 3.5.3 The percentage breakdown of savings for the five main tenures was as follows. Table 3 ‐6 Savings Level / Tenure Question 17a by Question 1 Owner Owner Occupied Occupied Private Social Shared Tied to Savings with No Rented Rented Ownership Employment Mortgage Mortgage No Savings 27.4 5.5 46.2 60.8 5.3 29.7 Under £5,000 32.8 14.9 24.4 23.9 49.4 21.7 £5,000 ‐ £10,000 12.3 12.2 8.7 9.3 25.3 11.3 £10,001 ‐ £15,000 7.1 6.4 4.2 2.9 0 3.7 £15,001 ‐ £20,000 4.0 7.9 4.6 0.4 14.6 2.6 £20,001 ‐ £30,000 3.7 8.3 2.5 1.3 2.7 8.9 Above £30,000 12.7 44.8 9.4 1.4 2.7 22.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.5.4 Generally, the breakdown produced the results which might be expected with 5.5% of owner occupiers without mortgages have no savings, in comparison to 46.2% of private rented tenants and 60.8% of social housing tenants. 3.5.5 44.8% of owner occupiers with no mortgage have savings of over £30,000 compared to 9.4% of private rented tenants. A significant proportion of retired owner occupied households will have some capital to support their housing and care needs.

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3.5.6 The next table relates to the level of equity ownership in their home and was answered by 75.5% of owner occupier respondents. Table 3 ‐7 Level of Equity in Present Accommodation Question 17b Level of Equity % Cum % Negative Equity 3.6 3.6 Below ‐ £10,000 6.9 10.5 £10,000 ‐ £25,000 8.0 18.5 £25,001 ‐ £50,000 9.0 27.5 £50,001 ‐ £75,000 10.4 37.9 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 12.1 50.0 £100,001 ‐ £150,000 17.1 67.1 Above £150,000 32.9 100.0 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.5.7 32.9% of all owners indicated equity of over £150,000. 3.5.8 Analysis by tenure indicated that 51.9% of those without a mortgage had an equity holding of over £150,000 as compared with 21.1% of owner occupiers with a mortgage. 3.6% of owners are in negative equity; 3.5.9 The response rate to the income question from existing households was 72.3% (99,032 implied). This gives a good indication of County income levels. Table 3 ‐8 Gross Annual Income of all Existing Households Question 17c Excluding Retired All Existing Households Households Annual income Cum % Cum % % % None 7.0 7.0 5.5 5.5 Below £10,000 14.4 21.4 9.4 14.9 £10,000 ‐ £25,000 32.7 54.1 28.8 43.7 £25,001 ‐ £35,000 14.6 68.7 16.4 60.1 £35,001 ‐ £45,000 11.4 80.1 13.9 74.0 £45,001 ‐ £60,000 9.5 89.6 12.2 86.2 £60,001 ‐ £75,000 4.4 94.0 5.8 92.0 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 3.1 97.1 4.1 96.1 Above £100,000 2.9 100.0 3.9 100.0 Note: Excluding benefits / allowances Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.5.10 The table shows that 21.4% of all households had incomes below £10,000. More than half of Northumberland households, 55.9%, earn below the national average of £26,200 per annum assessed by the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) April 2011. Excluding retired households, 13.8% stated that they earned over £60,000.

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3.5.11 Incomes for the main tenure types are shown in the following table. Table 3 ‐9 Annual Income by Tenure Question 17c by Question 1x Owner Owner Private Social Shared Tied to Annual income Occupier Occupier Rented Rented Ownership Employment with Mort. no Mort. None 2.1 5.2 11.2 21.9 0.0 0.0 Below £10,000 5.6 14.8 18.8 36.3 41.1 11.2 £10,000 ‐ £25,000 25.4 42.7 36.1 33.5 49.3 47.0 £25,001 ‐ £35,000 17.4 14.4 14.7 6.5 9.6 15.5 £35,001 ‐ £45,000 17.2 8.8 8.0 1.5 0.0 12.7 £45,001 ‐ £60,000 15.5 6.2 6.7 0.3 0.0 3.2 £60,001 ‐ £75,000 6.9 3.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 10.4 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 5.2 2.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Above £100,000 4.7 2.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Note: Excluding benefits / allowances Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.5.12 The profiles were largely as expected between owner‐occupiers and renters, especially bearing in mind that many owner‐occupiers without a mortgage are likely to have limited pension income. 3.5.13 All respondents in the social rented sector had incomes below £60,000. Shared ownership households all earned under £35,000. 3.5.14 Private rented sector incomes were similar to owner occupiers with no mortgage. 3.5.15 The following table shows the levels of rent / mortgage currently paid by existing households. Table 3 ‐10 Rent / mortgage paid for present accommodation Question 17d Rent / Mortgage % Cum % None 32.2 32.2 Under £57pw / £250pcm 13.6 45.8 £57 ‐ £80pw / £250 ‐ £350pcm 19.7 65.5 £81 ‐ £103pw / £351 ‐ £450pcm 9.8 75.3 £104 ‐ £127pw / £451 ‐ £550pcm 8.9 84.2 £128 ‐ £150pw / £551 ‐ £650pcm 5.0 89.2 £151 ‐ £173pw / £651 ‐ £750pcm 3.2 92.4 £174 ‐ £196pw / £751 ‐ £850pcm 2.2 94.6 Above £196pw / £850pcm 5.4 100.0 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.5.16 32.2% of existing households do not pay any rent or mortgage. 3.5.17 Of those who pay, 33.3% of respondents pay less than £350 per calendar month for their rent / mortgage in their present accommodation and 7.6% of households pay more than £750 per calendar month.

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34.4% of existing households were in receipt of financial support (47,094 implied cases), lower than the average found in the recent DCA SHMA in North Tyneside (41%). The results from those responding to a multiple‐choice question are set out in Table 3 ‐11 below. On average, each respondent indicated around 1.9 forms of financial support. Table 3 ‐11 Financial Support (Question 17e) Responses Households Nos. Implied Support % % (all choices) Council Tax Benefit 23.3 16.1 22,089 Housing Benefit 21.1 11.4 19,991 Disability Allowance 16.5 11.4 15,662 Pension Credits 12.7 8.8 12,019 Working Tax Credit 9.1 6.3 8,607 Other 6.8 4.7 6,444 Job Seekers Allowance 5.4 3.8 5,187 Income Support 5.1 3.6 4,865 Total 100.0 94,864 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.5.18 The main benefit received by respondents was Council Tax Benefit at 16.1%. 11.4% of households were in receipt of Housing Benefit and Disability allowance. 3.5.19 8.8% of households responding were in receipt of Pension Credits and 6.3% were in receipt of Working Tax Credit.

3.6 Existing Moving Households Table 3 ‐12 Gross Annual Income of Existing Households Moving Within the County Question 17c x 18b All households Annual income % Cumulative % cumulative % None 6.9 6.9 7.0 Below £10,000 15.4 22.3 21.4 £10,000 ‐ £25,000 21.3 43.6 54.1 £25,001 ‐ £35,000 18.5 62.1 68.7 £35,001 ‐ £45,000 11.9 73.0 80.1 £45,001 ‐ £60,000 13.5 86.5 89.6 £60,001 ‐ £75,000 7.9 94.4 94.0 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 3.2 97.6 97.1 Above £100,000 2.4 100.0 100.0 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.6.1 The incomes of existing moving households were tested and based on a response rate of 72.3%. 45.8% had incomes below £26,200 compared to 51.3% in the population as a whole.

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3.7 Concealed Households 3.7.1 The level of savings and income of concealed households intending to form their own household in the next three years is outlined in the tables below. Table 3 ‐13 Concealed Household Savings Question 38b Savings % Cum % No Savings 49.2 49.2 Under £1,000 23.6 72.8 £1,000 ‐ £5,000 12.3 85.1 £5,001 ‐ £10,000 9.0 94.1 £10,001 ‐ £20,000 2.8 96.9 £20,001 ‐ £30,000 1.3 98.2 Over £30,000 1.8 100.0 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.7.2 91.0% of concealed households moving responded to a question asking about the level of savings available to meet deposit, stamp duty and legal costs on their new home. 72.8% have less than £1,000 in savings, nearly half of them with no savings. 3.7.3 20.6% of concealed households moving within the County (1,025 implied) would be likely to claim Housing Benefit. Table 3 ‐14 Annual Income of Concealed Households Question 37d All concealed households Annual Income % Cum % Nos. implied Below £10,000 25.7 25.7 1,280 £10,000 ‐ £20,000 47.1 72.8 2,346 £20,001 ‐ £25,000 10.3 83.1 513 £25,001 ‐ £30,000 8.2 91.3 408 £30,001 ‐ £35,000 3.9 95.2 194 £35,001 ‐ £45,000 0.4 95.6 20 £45,001 ‐ £50,000 3.2 98.8 159 £50,001 ‐ £75,000 0.4 99.2 20 Above £75,000 0.8 100.0 40 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.7.4 A response to the income question was received from 72.7% of concealed households forming within the County. The proportion below the £10,000 income band was 25.7%. 3.7.5 85.1% of concealed households earned below the national average level of £26,200. Low incomes, coupled with a low level of savings will hinder access to the market for concealed households. 3.7.6 As discussed in paragraph 3.4.7, the incomes of recently formed households are used in the assessment of affordable housing need and should be examined.

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3.7.7 47.9% of households who have formed their first home in the last three years from 2009 to 2011 have incomes above £25,000. The proportion of recently formed households who earned less than £10,000 was 29.2%, slightly higher than the proportion of concealed households earning below £10,000 (25.7%). Table 3 ‐15 Annual Income of Recently Formed Households Question 17c (x Q5e) New households formed Annual Income % Cum % Nos. implied None 17.8 17.8 742 Below £10,000 11.4 29.2 474 £10,000 ‐ £25,000 32.3 61.5 1,346 £25,001 ‐ £35,000 16.7 78.2 695 £35,001 ‐ £45,000 12.1 90.3 503 £45,001 ‐ £60,000 6.4 96.7 266 £60,001 ‐ £75,000 1.1 97.8 46 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 2.2 100.0 93 Above £100,000 0 0 0 Source: Northumberland Housing Survey Data 2012 3.7.8 Access to the owner‐occupied market in the County through the cheapest property in the cheapest area, a 1‐bedroom flat in Northumberland South East, requires an income of £12,800. 3.7.9 Based on this evidence, 83.8% based on a weighted average of concealed households cannot afford to owner occupy in the County.

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4 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

4.1 Key Findings

¾ 20.6% of the population were aged 65+ in 2011 and are forecast to be 32.2% in 2035.

¾ The population of the County is projected to increase by 4.5% in total between 2011 and 2035; 14,100 more people.

¾ The 65+ age group shows a 40,900 increase (63.5%) over the forecast period.

¾ Within that group the 85+ age group shows a massive increase of 173.5%, 14,400 more people and the 90+ group more than doubles by 2035.

¾ All age groups up to 64 fall in numbers, by ‐26,800 by 2035; 10.8%.

¾ The largest age group who took part in the survey in 2012 in Northumberland is 50‐64, 26.1% of the population.

¾ 41.6% of households in the County contain 2 people.

¾ There is forecast to be 25,000 more households in the County by 2033, an increase of more than 18%.

4.2 Existing Population Profile 4.2.1 Data on existing household profiles was collected through the household survey. The tables below provide a summary of the findings. Table 4 ‐1 Family Composition Q16c & d

Family Composition % Group % 1 adult over 60 14.1 1 adult under 60 15.4 30.3 1 adult + other 0.8 Couple no child 37.2 Couple with children 25.4 63.4 Couple + others 0.8 Single parent 6.3 6.3 Total 100.0 100.0

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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4.2.2 The 2012 survey sample shows a household type distribution. Table 4 ‐2 Population Age Groups Question 16d Age Group Sample % 0 – 10 9.4 11 – 15 5.1 16 – 24 8.8 25 – 34 7.6 35 – 49 19.4 50 – 64 26.1 65 ‐ 79 18.3 80+ 5.3 Total 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 4.2.3 Table 4 ‐2 shows the age of all household members in the sample. The largest population group was the 50‐64 age group. Table 4 ‐3 Number in Household Question 16a Number in household % Nos. implied One 29.8 39,521 Two 41.6 55,064 Three 14.1 18,735 Four 10.8 14,359 Five 3.0 3,816 Six 0.5 682 Seven 0.1 169 Eight 0.1 127 Nine 0.0 34 Ten 0.0 11 Total 100.0 132,518 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 4.2.4 The profile emerging from the 2012 survey equated to 2.1 persons per household on average, below the UK average of 2.4. 4.2.5 The owner occupied with mortgage sector would be expected to have a relatively high proportion of families. 16.5% of the households are single person households, slightly higher than the average commonly found in DCA surveys (around 15%). 4.2.6 In the social rented sector, 46.5% were single person households and 34.9% contained 2 people. 4.2.7 Only 12.1% of the owner‐occupier no mortgage households contained more than two people, reflecting the higher average age in this form of tenure and the fact that children will in the main have left home.

44 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

4.3 Demographic Analysis 4.3.1 There are four basic components to change in the number and composition of households. The aim of this section of the report is to highlight the issues which are relevant to the evaluation of housing needs in the County particularly the changes in:‐ ¾ the age distribution of the population arising from births, deaths and ageing of the indigenous population; ¾ family units such as marriage, divorce and child bearing patterns; ¾ the number and composition of households arising from migration, particularly due to employment opportunities in the area; ¾ the probabilities that family units form a separate household, particularly in response to changes in incomes in the labour market area. 4.3.2 In local area forecasting, new household formation is mainly due to responses to income and employment opportunities. New household formation is also affected by life cycle patterns. This purely demographic influence on the number of households contributes to about 40% of the growth in the number of new households at any one time (Dicks, 1988; Ermisch, 1985). 4.3.3 The general demographic forecasts in the tables in this section have been provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and are ONS projections who publish population and household forecasts at Local Authority level for England. The forecasts are 2010 based sub‐national population projections and are the most recent projections available, released in 2012. 4.3.4 The factors which combine to produce the population and household forecasts are:‐ population age‐sex structures, headship rates, survival factors, infant mortality, fertility rates, base numbers of dwellings, vacancy rates, building / demolition programmes and the age‐sex structure of migrants. The summary of this data is provided in the following tables with the population changes disaggregate from 2011–2035.

4.4 Population Projections 4.4.1 The figures in Table 4 ‐4 are Office for National Statistics (ONS) projections as outlined in 4.3.3 . Table 4 ‐4 Population Change in Northumberland, 2011 – 2035 (2010 based) 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2035 Change Total 312,500 316,400 320,400 323,700 325,700 326,600 Population Change +3,900 +4,000 +3,300 +2,000 +900 +14,100 % Change +1.2 +1.3 +1.0 +0.6 +0.3 +4.5 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 4.4.2 The data shows an overall predicted increase in the population of the County of 14,100 between 2011 and 2035, an increase of 4.5% over the forecast period. This is much lower than the national figure of 18.9%.

45 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

4.5 Age Structure Forecast 2011 ‐ 2035 4.5.1 The next stage in the forecast is to disaggregate the population data into age bands because there may be changes in the population structure with significant housing implications. Table 4 ‐5 is based on the zero net migration model and for this purpose best represents the position. Table 4 ‐5 Population Age Band Forecast, Northumberland 2011 – 2035 (2010 Based) Change Change change Change Change Total Total 2011 2016 2011‐ 2021 2016‐ 2026 2021‐ 2031 2026‐ 2035 2031‐ Change Change 2016 2021 2026 2031 2035 Nos. % 0 ‐19 66,500 65,600 ‐900 66,000 +400 66,200 +200 64,700 ‐1,500 62,900 ‐1,800 ‐3,600 ‐5.4 20 – 29 32,400 31,900 +500 29,100 ‐2,800 27,500 ‐1,600 28,300 +800 29,900 +1,600 ‐2,500 ‐7.7 30 ‐ 44 53,900 50,300 ‐3,600 52,500 +2,200 54,700 +2,200 53,400 ‐1,300 51,100 ‐2,300 ‐2,800 ‐5.2 45 ‐ 64 95,300 93,300 ‐2,000 89,300 ‐4,000 83,300 ‐6,000 78,300 ‐5,000 77,400 ‐900 ‐17,900 ‐18.8 65 + 64,400 75,100 + 10,700 83,300 + 8,200 92,200 + 8,900 101,000 + 8,800 105,300 + 4,300 + 40,900 + 63.5 Total 312,500 316,400 +3,900 320,400 +4,000 323,700 +3,300 325,700 +2,000 326,600 +900 +14,100 +4.5

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Note : Total population numbers are from Table 4 ‐4 these will not sum due to rounding

4.5.2 The total change overall as outlined in 4.4.2 is 14,100 people and increase of 4.5%. When the data is disaggregated by age groups the only increase overall can be seen in the 65+ age group (53.3%; 52,900 people). All age groups up to 64 reduce in numbers over the period. 4.5.3 The largest age group in 2011 was the 45‐64 group, 30.5% of the population. The 65+ age group makes up 20.6% and the 0‐19 age group 21.3% of the overall population.

46 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

Figure 4 ‐1 Forecast Change in Population Age Bands, Northumberland 2011‐2035

63.5% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 4.5% 5.0% -18.8% -5.4% -7.7% -5.2% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 0-19 20-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total -20.0%

Age Band (%)

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 4.5.4 Percentage change is measured between year bands, not the base population. This is a better representation of the incremental change. Figure 4 ‐2 Population Age Band Forecast Northumberland 2008 – 2035

120,000

100,000 2011 80,000 2016 2021 60,000 2026 40,000 2031 2035 20,000

0 0‐19 20‐29 30‐44 45‐64 65+

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 4.5.5 The 0‐19 age range shows a fall over the forecast period of ‐5.4%; (‐3,600). The numbers show a sporadic pattern throughout the forecast period, with the largest fall being between 2026 and 2031. 4.5.6 The 20‐29 age range comprises new households forming and will have implications for future affordable housing need both in the short and longer term. There is predicted to be a fall of ‐2,500 people up to 2035 (‐7.7%). The largest fall is between 2016 and 2021.

47 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

4.5.7 The 30‐44 age group, the main economically active group, is predicted to decrease in numbers overall by ‐2,800 (‐5.2%). Numbers decrease by 3,600 between 2011 and 2016 then increase again through to 2026. Numbers then decrease from 2031 through to 2035. 4.5.8 In the 45‐64 age group there is projected to be a large fall in the population of ‐17,900 people (‐18.8%) over the forecast period. Numbers increase greatly between 2011 and 2026, the numbers then continue to rise but at a lower rate through to 2035. 4.5.9 The most significant feature in the population projections is the projected growth of the population in the over 65 age group, detailed further in the table below. Table 4 ‐6 Numbers of 65+ in Northumberland, 2011 – 2035 (2010 Based)

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2035 Change % 65‐69 19,500 23,800 22,000 23,600 24,900 23,300 +3,800 +19.5 70‐74 15,400 18,100 22,200 20,600 22,300 23,600 +8,200 +53.2 75‐79 12,300 13,500 16,100 19,900 18,600 19,900 +7,600 +61.8 80‐84 8,900 9,900 11,100 13,500 16,800 15,800 +6,900 +77.5 85‐89 5,400 6,000 7,100 8,300 10,300 12,800 +7,400 +137.0 90+ 2,900 3,800 4,800 6,300 8,100 9,900 +7,000 +241.4 Total 65+ 64,400 75,100 83,300 92,200 101,000 105,300 Change + 10,700 + 8,200 + 8,900 + 8,800 + 4,300 + 40,900 + 63.5 % Change + 16.6 + 10.9 + 10.7 + 9.5 + 4.3

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 4.5.10 As with the United Kingdom generally, there is expected to be a large increase in the 65+ age group (+40,900: +63.5%) up to 2035, with the largest rise in occurring in the current period from 2011 to 2016 (+10,700). This group is forecast to grow from 20.6% of the total population in 2011 to 32.2% in 2035. 4.5.11 The 70‐74+ age group shows the largest increase overall of 8,200 people, a 61.8% increase from 2010 to 2035. The very significant increases are in the 85+ age group, 85‐89 years grows by 137% and the projected increase of 7,000 people in the 90+ age group, by 241% to 2035.

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4.5.12 Given the resource demands often associated with very elderly people, these are significant figures. Figure 4 ‐3 Population Age Band Forecast, 65+ Northumberland 2011 – 2035

30,000 25,000 2011 20,000 2016 2021 15,000 2026 10,000 2031 5,000 2035 0 65 ‐ 69 70 ‐ 74 75 ‐ 79 80 ‐ 84 85 ‐ 89 90+

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Figure 4 ‐4 % Change of 65+ 2011 – 2035

250

200

150 100

50

0 65‐69 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85‐89 90+ Age Band

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)

4.6 Regional and National Change 4.6.1 The table below highlights the percentage change in age groups over the period to 2035, comparing Northumberland with the North East and England. Table 4 ‐7 Forecast Change % in Age of Households, 2011 – 2035 Northumberland North East England 0 ‐ 19 ‐5.4 +0.9 +12.4 20 – 29 ‐7.7 ‐1.9 +8.5 30 ‐ 44 ‐5.2 +3.1 +9.0 45 ‐ 64 ‐18.8 ‐10.6 +6.6 65 + +63.5 +53.1 +61.6 Total +4.5 +7.0 +17.9 75+ +97.9 +71.7 +78.4 85+ +173.5 +135.7 +139.4 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)

49 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

4.6.2 The total change over the forecast period is lower in the County than over the North East and England as a whole due to the larger decline in the younger population. 4.6.3 What is apparent, however, is the large growth in the 65+, 75+ and 85+ groups compared to the benchmark areas and compared with the losses of population in the younger groups.

4.7 Forecast Change in Households 4.7.1 The table below outlines the household forecasts from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for Northumberland from 2008 to 2033. 4.7.2 All projections are 2008‐based and are linked to the Office for National Statistics 2008‐based Population Projections, and are not an assessment of housing need and do not take account of future policies. These are the most up to date forecasts available. 4.7.3 They are an indication of the likely increase in households given the continuation of recent demographic trends. Table 4 ‐5 Forecast Change in Households 2008 – 2033

2008 2013 2018 2023 2026 2033 Change

Households 136,000 141,000 146,000 152,000 155,000 161,000

Household change +5,000 +5,000 +6,000 +3,000 +6,000 +25,000

% Change +3.7 +3.5 +4.1 +2.0 +3.9 + 18.4 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) 4.7.4 There is forecast to be 25,000 more households in the County in 2033 than in 2008, an increase of more than 18%. 4.7.5 This is an annual average of 1,000 units which is also forecast to in the short term to 2018.

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5 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK

5.1 Key Findings ¾ Survey data revealed that the property type profile is skewed towards semi‐ detached houses and the average number of bedrooms by property across the County is 2.7. ¾ 69.1% of properties in the market sector are 3 bedrooms or more, compared to 20.9% of properties in the social sector. ¾ The overall over‐occupation level of 1.4% (1,863 implied households), is lower than the average UK level indicated by the Survey of English Housing 2010/11 at 3.0%. ¾ The highest levels of over‐occupation are in private rented accommodation at 3.1% and social rented accommodation at 2.0%. 6.4% of BME households are over‐crowded. ¾ The overall under‐occupation figure of 41.4% was slightly higher than the average found in recent DCA surveys (around 40%). Under‐occupation was highest in the owner occupied sector, particularly those with no mortgage. ¾ In the social rented sector the levels are lower but suggest around 3,350 properties are under‐occupied by two spare bedrooms. ¾ Only 0.8% of households share facilities with other residents, the main ones being bathroom and kitchen facilities. ¾ 91.0% of respondents said their home was adequate for their needs; 9.0% considered their home inadequate for their needs. ¾ The lowest adequacy by tenure was found in the private rented sector at 82.2%. ¾ The main reason for inadequacy County‐wide was that the property needs improvements / repairs (47.1% of households).

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5.2 Current Housing in Northumberland 5.2.1 This section sets the scene for later examination of the housing market and outlines current housing circumstances of households in Northumberland. 5.2.2 Table 5 ‐1 below indicates the type of accommodation occupied by existing households responding to the question. Table 5 ‐1 Type of Accommodation Question 2

Northumberland 2012 Nos. Type 2011 Survey % implied Census % Detached House 18.7 25,614 25.2 Detached Bungalow 6.6 8,995 Semi‐detached House 30.9 42,306 35.3 Semi‐detached Bungalow 5.7 7,792 Terraced House 23.8 32,635 28.1 Terraced Bungalow 3.6 4,872 Flat / maisonette 10.4 14,233 11.1 Bedsit 0.3 415 Houseboat / Caravan / Mobile home 0.0 62 0.3 Total 100.0 136,924 100.0

© Crown Copyright (Census) Northumberland SHMA (rounded) census data Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 5.2.3 Over a third of households in Northumberland live in semi‐detached properties (36.6%) followed by 27.4% in terraced properties. 25.3% of households live in detached properties. The level of flats in the County at 10.4% is almost half the national average level of 20%.

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Table 5 ‐2 Property Type by Tenure (%) Question 2 by Question 1

Houseboat / Detached Semi‐Detached Terraced Flat / Tenure Bungalow Bedsit Caravan / Total House House House Maisonette Mobile Home Owner Occupied 25.9 34.3 26.8 8.5 4.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 with Mortgage Owner Occupied 20.9 28.8 23.6 20.5 6.0 0.0 0.1 100.0 no Mortgage Private rented 17.1 18.5 25.9 14.8 22.8 0.8 0.0 100.0 Social rented 1.5 33.2 17.5 24.5 22.2 1.1 0.0 100.0 Shared 2.5 27.8 27.7 42.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Ownership* Tied to 30.2 35.3 14.9 14.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 employment Living rent free 12.8 42.2 7.7 19.4 17.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 * Low volume of data Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 5.2.4 A cross‐tabulation relating property type to form of tenure shows that detached and semi‐detached properties account for around 56% of the owner occupied sector, lower than the 63% recorded in the English Housing Survey 2009‐10. The highest proportions of Registered Provider rented stock in the County are flats / maisonettes and bungalows in the private rented sector it is terraced properties and flats.

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5.2.5 The figure below shows the proportion of properties by the number of bedrooms in the County. Figure 5 ‐1 Number of Bedrooms Question 3

Bedsit 0.3%

One 8.9%

Two 29.5%

Three 42.0%

Four 15.0%

Five or more 4.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 5.2.6 The average number of bedrooms across the stock in the County was 2.7, which is comparable to the average found in other recent DCA surveys (2.8). The breakdown of size by number of bedrooms in percentage terms between the ownership and rental sectors was assessed with the following results. Table 5 ‐3 Number of Bedrooms by Tenure Question 3 by Question 1

Tenure Bedsit One Two Three Four Five+ Total

Owner Occupied 0.0 2.2 22.1 47.7 21.3 6.7 100.0 (Mortgage)

Owner Occupied 0.0 1.7 27.8 47.3 19.3 3.9 100.0 (No Mortgage)

Private rented 0.9 12.8 46.5 31.2 5.5 3.1 100.0

Social Rented 1.2 31.5 38.0 27.8 1.4 0.1 100.0

Shared Ownership* 0.0 2.5 68.2 21.0 0.0 8.3 100.0

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey * Low volume of data 5.2.7 The proportion of small units, bedsit / 1 and 2‐bedroom properties, is high in the social rented sector at 70.7% of social stock. 5.2.8 There is a huge variance between the proportion of properties with 4 or more bedrooms which are owned with mortgage (28%) and those of social rented (3%).

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Figure 5 ‐2 Market and Social Stock by Number of Bedrooms

100%

90% 29.3 80%

70% 69.1 60% 3+ 50% 1 & 2 40% 70.7 30%

20% 30.9 10%

0% Market Social

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 5.2.9 Overall 70.7% of stock in the social rented sector is one and two bedrooms compared to 30.9% in the market sector including private rental.

5.3 Under and Over‐Occupation 5.3.1 A broad assessment of ‘under‐occupation’ and ‘over‐occupation’ was conducted based on a detailed analysis of the family composition data. The number of bedrooms required in each household was established allowing for age and gender of occupants as defined by the ‘bedroom standard’. 5.3.2 In the case of over‐occupation any dwelling without sufficient bedrooms to meet that requirement has been categorised as over‐occupied. In the case of under‐ occupation, any dwelling with more than one ‘spare’ bedroom above requirement has been categorised as under‐occupied. This is perhaps better described as “two or more spare bedrooms”. 5.3.3 The assessment of under and over‐occupation by tenure revealed some disparity between tenure types as indicated below. Table 5 ‐4 Under / Over‐Occupation by Tenure Question 16a by Question 3 & Question 1 Tenure % under occupied % over‐ occupied Owner occupied with mortgage 43.1 1.4 Owner occupied no mortgage 62.2 0.5 Private rented 25.9 2.5 Social rent 13.6 2.0 Shared Ownership* 26.8 0.0 All stock 41.4 1.4 * Low volume of data Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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Over‐Occupation 5.3.4 The overall over‐occupation level of 1.4% (1,852 implied households), is lower than the average UK level indicated by the Survey of English Housing 2010/11 (SEH) at 3.0%. 5.3.5 The highest levels of over‐occupation are in private rented accommodation at 2.5% and social rented accommodation at 2.0%. However the average in the Survey of English Housing 2010/11 for the social sector is 7.3%. Under‐Occupation 5.3.6 The overall under‐occupation figure of 41.4% was slightly higher than the average found in recent DCA surveys (around 40%). This is a factor of the population demographics and the property size profile in the County, which has above national levels of detached and semi‐detached properties. 5.3.7 Under‐occupation within the owner occupied no mortgage sector, which will include a higher proportion of elderly households, was at 62.2% higher than the level of around 61.0% found in recent DCA surveys. However, the level in the owner occupied with mortgage sector is still high at 43.1%. 5.3.8 The under‐occupation level in the social rented sector (13.6%) is low in comparison to the all tenure average and the owner occupied forms of tenure, as might be expected. 5.3.9 The Housing Survey data estimated that there are around 3,350 social rented properties which are under‐occupied by two or more bedrooms. 5.3.10 Over 1,250 of these households are aged over 65 and 58% are single person households. 5.3.11 Tackling under‐occupation of family houses to make best use of the existing stock would make a positive contribution to meeting need through better re‐let supply, although in practice it is recognised that this is difficult to achieve. 5.3.12 Addressing the under‐occupation within the existing 3 and 4 bedroom social housing stock to assist in resolving over‐crowding and making best use of the stock should be a housing priority.

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5.4 Shared Facilities 5.4.1 Respondents were asked about the facilities they share with other residents within their accommodation but who were not in their household. Figure 5 ‐3 Shared Facilities (Question 6)

Shared Facilities

Living Room 67.6%

Bath/Shower 97.8% Eating Area 64.0%

Toilet 73.5%

Kitchen 75.7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 5.4.2 99.2% of households did not share any facilities with other residents. The graph shows the facilities shared by the 515 implied households that did share facilities. 5.4.3 Bathroom facilities were the most frequently shared facilities, followed by kitchen and toilet facilities.

5.5 Adequacy of Present Dwelling / Improvement Required 5.5.1 91.0% of respondents indicated that their accommodation was adequate for their needs. A level in the region of 89% has been a typical result in recent DCA surveys. 5.5.2 9.0% of households in Northumberland (11,708 implied) stated that their accommodation was inadequate. The Guidance test of inadequacy causing a housing need is based on those households in this situation actually needing to move to another dwelling. Some households may technically need to move but decide not to do so.

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5.5.3 Some variation was evident in adequacy by tenure. The satisfaction level of 86.1% for social rented was higher than the average found for socially rented accommodation in recent DCA surveys (around 82%). Figure 5 ‐4 Adequacy by Tenure Question 7 by Question 1

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey * Low volume of data 5.5.4 The lowest level of adequacy was for the private rented sector at 82.2%, still a relatively high level for a sector with the highest levels of disrepair. 5.5.5 The figure below shows the main reasons for inadequacy for the social rented sector. Figure 5 ‐5 Main reasons for Inadequacy in the Social rented sector

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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5.5.6 The results in response to a multiple choice question on the reason for inadequacy across all tenures are shown in Table 5 ‐5 below with respondents making an average of 2 choices each. Table 5 ‐5 Reason For Inadequacy Question 8a Nos. implied Reasons (In Situ) % responses % households (all choices) Needs improvements / repairs 19.0 38.5 5,405 Too costly to heat 12.8 25.9 3,625 No heating/insufficient heating 5.9 12.0 1,678 Inadequate facilities 4.3 8.5 1,190 Nos. implied Reasons (Need to Move) % responses % households (all choices) Too small 17.7 35.8 5,025 Insufficient number of bedrooms 13.3 26.9 3,775 Unsuitable due to the needs of 9.4 19.0 2,663 disabled/elderly household member Too large 6.7 13.6 1,908 Rent / Mortgage too expensive 6.4 12.9 1,807 Suffering harassment 3.2 6.5 910 Tenancy insecure 1.3 2.7 381 Overall Total 100.0 28,367 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 5.5.7 42.0% of responses identified an ‘in house’ solution relating to repairs, improvements, inadequate facilities and heating. 38.5% of households (5,405 implied) selected the need for improvement or repairs as one of their choices. 5.5.8 58.0% of responses indicated a solution requiring a move. The largest single issue in this group was that the home was too small, referred to by 35.8% of households as one of their choices, implying 5,025 cases. 5.5.9 25.9% of households said their home was too costly to heat and 12.0% stating that there was either no heating or the heating was insufficient. 12.9% said that their rent / mortgage were too expensive. 5.5.10 These households were tested on whether they are actually over‐occupied by the national bedroom standard and the data showed there were around 1,850 households in this situation, lower than the level who stated that their home was too small. 5.5.11 This suggests that around 3,175 households (5,025 households that said their accommodation was too small minus 1,850 implied households that were calculated as being over‐crowded) may well be expecting additional children or perhaps have an elderly parent coming to live with them which would make their house too small in their view, but equally it could be a desire for more space in general. 5.5.12 Although some of them could become over‐occupied they have been eliminated from the calculations of those needing to move for this reason in the CLG model later in the report.

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5.5.13 The table below shows the responses for inadequacy by the SHMA areas. Table 5 ‐6 Reason For Inadequacy by SHMA Area Question 8a by SHMA Area North City Region Urban Reasons Northumberland Commuter Northumberland Needs improvements / repairs 27.4 31.5 41.0 Too costly to heat 30.2 27.3 42.5 Too large 26.2 30.6 43.0 Too small 21.9 30.8 47.3 Insufficient number of bedrooms 22.6 32.6 44.7 Unsuitable needs of disabled/ 16.3 21.7 61.9 elderly household member Rent / Mortgage too expensive 36.6 21.6 69.4 Tenancy insecure 44.9 50.9 3.9 Suffering harassment 20.0 28.1 51.7 Inadequate facilities 19.9 32.8 47.4 No heating/insufficient heating 36.8 17.3 46.1 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 5.5.14 In North Northumberland the highest reason for inadequacy was ‘tenancy insecure’ (44.9%), no heating / insufficient heating (36.8%) followed by rent / mortgage too expensive at (36.6%). 5.5.15 In the City Region Commuter area the highest response was ‘tenancy insecure’ (50.9%) and ‘inadequate facilities’ at 32.8%. This was followed by ‘insufficient number of bedrooms’ at 32.6%. 5.5.16 The highest inadequacy in Urban Northumberland was ‘rent / mortgage too expensive’ at 69.4% followed by ‘unsuitable for the needs of a disabled / elderly member’ at 61.9%. 5.5.17 Overall, 8,132 (43.6%) households said that a move was necessary to resolve any inadequacy and of those households 51.0% (5,536) indicated that they could afford a home of suitable size in the County. 5.5.18 The largest proportion of households who said that a move was necessary to resolve any inadequacy are owner occupiers paying a mortgage (37.1%) followed by private rented at 23.4%.

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6 THE HOUSING MARKET

6.1 Key Findings ¾ Between Quarter 4 2010 and Quarter 4 2011 house prices in the County fell by 1.4%, compared with an increase of 5.8% in the North Region. ¾ The average house price in the County in Quarter 4 2011 was £160,047, ranging from £94,112 for a flat to £263,486 for a detached property. ¾ The number of sales in the County has increased by 7.3% over a two year period (2009‐2011). However sales fell by 1.4% over the year to December 2011. ¾ In the County the highest proportion of sales in Quarter 4 2011 was for semi‐ detached properties at 31.9% compared with only 10.4% for flats / maisonettes. ¾ Entry level stock in the County is considered to be flats / maisonettes. Property prices start at £49,000 for a 1 bedroom flat in Northumberland South East. ¾ The cheapest entry level property requires an income of £13,300 (single income household) in Northumberland South East. 41.2% of concealed households earn below this amount and therefore cannot purchase in the market. ¾ The lowest entry level rents for a 1 bedroom flat is £320 per month and £375 per month for a 2‐bedroom flat in Northumberland South East. ¾ 42.2% of concealed households say they could not afford to pay more than £300 per month and are therefore priced out of the private rental market. ¾ An income of at least £15,400 per annum is required to be able to afford the cheapest private rental property in the County. 51.1% of concealed households achieved this level of income.

6.2 Introduction 6.2.1 This section provides an analysis of indicators of housing market activity to provide an understanding about changes in demand over time and to identify any pressure points within the County. 6.2.2 Sources of data utilised are:‐ ¾ HM Land Registry Data to Quarter 4, 2011; ¾ The Bank of England Industry Wide Figures; ¾ The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML); ¾ 2012 DCA Estate Agency Survey data; ¾ Hometrack Data; 6.2.3 Since 2007, the UK market has seen a crisis in economic terms starting with insecurity in the financial markets following the sub‐prime mortgage crisis beginning in the American market. This led to a fall in house prices throughout the UK which has left recent purchasers, particularly first‐time buyers and those on 100% mortgages with negative equity.

61 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

6.2.4 The information below sets the context for the key issue of the affordability of housing in the area, and in particular the analysis can be related to the problems of low income evaluated through the household postal survey.

6.3 The Current Market Outlook 6.3.1 Hometrack predict average UK house prices to fall by a further 3% in 2012 and remain flat into 2013, rising by 2% in 2014. 6.3.2 The outlook for the housing market is being driven by weak levels of demand, as slow economic growth impacts on (rising) unemployment and squeezes disposable household incomes. 6.3.3 The real growth story in the housing sector for 2012 is in the rental market where demand will remain strong. There is however a limit as to how high rents can go. Hometrack forecast that rental growth will slow in 2012 increasing by 1‐2% outside London. Given the pressure on household incomes it is impressive that rents should continue to rise and Hometrack’s view is that the driver of rental growth is increased demand rather than the capacity of tenants to pay more out of existing incomes. 6.3.4 Overall low interest rates will continue to support a struggling market but the overall outlook is for prices to fall, with rentals increasing.

6.4 Housing Supply and Turnover 6.4.1 Overall the supply of housing for sale grew by 19% over 2011, with all the growth coming from January – August. However due to uncertainty over the economic outlook, the number of would‐be buyers prepared to sell has fallen. In December the number of homes coming to the market fell by 3.4%. 6.4.2 The time on the market has been increasing for the last five months and currently stands at 10.1 weeks, up from a recent low of 9.4 weeks (July 2011). 6.4.3 Around the UK, the time taken to sell ranges from 6.5 weeks in London to a high of 13 weeks in the East Midlands. Time to sell in the North is almost 12 weeks. 6.4.4 The proportion of the asking price achieved has remained largely unchanged over the year tracking in the range of 92% ‐ 93%. But in the North of the country it has started to move lower – suggesting an above average acceleration in price falls over 2012.

6.5 Current Prices 6.5.1 Average prices moved downwards by 2.1% over the year, this compared to a 1.6% decline in 2010. The strength of the London market, where prices were up 1% and by more than 5% in the most affluent postcodes, has flattered the national picture. 6.5.2 Over the last 12 months 78% of postcodes across the country have registered price falls. This is in contrast to London where, over the same period, prices have risen across 43% of the capital. 6.5.3 Following a weak end to 2010, demand over the first half of 2011 bounced back with the number of new buyers rising by 14%. Over the second half of the year new buyer registrations (demand) fell by 11% as uncertainty over the economic outlook grew. New buyer registrations fell by 6.3% in December.

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6.6 Regional Picture 6.6.1 The Land Registry data for the North Region at the end of the 4th Quarter 2011 showed a rise over the Quarter of + 5.8%. However in Northumberland, average house prices have fallen by ‐1.4% over the Quarter. 6.6.2 Land Registry data shows that average house prices in the Region decreased by 6.4% from £147,962 to £138,562 over the year from the 4th Quarter 2010 to the 4th Quarter 2011.

6.7 Average House Prices 6.7.1 The data on average house prices during the 4th Quarter of 2011 from Land Registry is summarised in Figure 6 ‐1 below. Figure 6 ‐1 Average House Prices by Type, Quarter 4 2011

Average House Price Detached Semi‐Detached Terraced Flat / Maisonette Overall (£) £700,000

£600,000

£500,000

£400,000

£300,000

£200,000

£100,000

£0 Northumberland North Region England and Wales Detached £263,486 £230,984 £324,324 Semi‐Detached £135,088 £131,615 £195,784 Terraced £119,214 £107,429 £185,237 Flat / Maisonette £94,112 £103,343 £221,072 Overall £160,047 £138,562 £228,388

Source: Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 4 2011, © Crown Copyright 6.7.2 The average property price in Northumberland is £160,047, higher than the North Region but lower than the national average. 6.7.3 Average house prices in the regional market and local market are shown in Table 6 ‐1 below. The table shows the details of the prices paid by house type using the Land Registry data and the Halifax House Price Index.

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6.7.4 The table below examines average house prices for the County recorded by the Land Registry, against house prices in the surrounding areas of Newcastle, North Tyneside, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Durham, Eden, Carlisle and Scottish Borders. Table 6 ‐1 Land Registry Average House Prices (£) ‐ All Buyers Quarter 4 2011 North Property Type Northumberland Newcastle Gateshead Tyneside Flats & maisonettes 94,112 121,556 98,111 86,796 Terraced 119,214 157,629 140,923 111,333 Semi‐detached 135,088 148,093 153,357 130,587 Detached 263,486 258,410 233,479 224,953 All properties 160,047 156,203 145,912 128,537

South Property Type Durham Eden Carlisle Tyneside Flats & maisonettes 75,388 106,431 106,347 87,428 Terraced 101,354 87,990 134,586 99,330 Semi‐detached 137,139 110,013 182,235 126,969 Detached 257,441 201,094 280,923 230,396 All properties 122,697 120,692 194,055 140,413 Source: Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 4 2011 © Crown Copyright, totals do not sum due to average weighting / rounding 6.7.5 The average price of a terraced property is cheapest in Durham (£87,990) followed by Carlisle (£99,330). The highest average price of a terraced house is in Newcastle (£157,629), followed by North Tyneside (£140,923). 6.7.6 The highest average price of a flat/maisonette is in Newcastle (£121,556) and South Tyneside has the lowest average price for flats across all the areas at £75,388. 6.7.7 The differences in average prices of properties, particularly in the entry level stock of terraced houses and flats is one factor which can effect on out‐migration from Northumberland to the surrounding areas. 6.7.8 There is potentially to be a higher level of out‐migration from Northumberland to areas where the average price of entry level properties are much lower, particularly from concealed households looking for cheaper housing. Gateshead, South Tyneside, Durham and Carlisle have terraced house prices which are lower than those in the County.

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6.8 Sales Transactions 6.8.1 As Northumberland Council only came into being in April 2009 we can only benchmark against data from Quarter 2 2009. Table 6 ‐2 below shows the number of sales by property type in the region and in the County in Quarter 2 2011. This is compared with the sales levels two years previous (Quarter 2 2009). Table 6 ‐2 Sales Transactions Quarter 2 2009 / Quarter 4 2011 North Northumberland Property Type Sales Q2 Sales Q2 Difference Sales Q2 Sales Q2 Difference +/‐ 2011 2009 +/‐ (%) 2011 2009 (%) Terraced 2,859 2,385 + 19.9 243 238 +2.1 Semi‐detached 2,632 2,309 + 14.0 225 208 +8.2 Detached 1,392 1,293 + 7.7 196 174 +12.6 Flats & Maisonettes 737 817 ‐9.8 71 65 +9.2 All Properties 7,620 6,804 + 12.0 735 685 +7.3 Source: Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 2 2009 & 2011, © Crown Copyright 6.8.2 The data shows a rise in sales both regionally and locally over the two year period since Quarter 2 2009. In the region the largest increase in sales was seen in terraces at 19.9%, followed by semi‐detached properties at 14.0%. 6.8.3 In Northumberland detached showed the largest rise in sales at 12.6% followed by flats / maisonettes properties at 9.2%. 6.8.4 The following table compares Quarter 4 2011 sales transactions by Quarter 4 2010 sales transactions by property type in Northumberland and the Region. Table 6 ‐3 Sales Transactions Quarter 4 2010 & Quarter 4 2011 North Northumberland Property Type Sales Q4 Sales Q4 Change Sales Q4 Sales Q4 Change 2011 2010 +/‐ (%) 2011 2010 +/‐ (%) Terraced 3,033 2,916 + 4.0 267 253 + 5.5 Semi‐detached 2,901 2,764 + 4.95 273 304 ‐ 10.2 Detached 1,585 1,545 + 2.6 228 235 ‐ 3.1 Flats & Maisonettes 906 737 + 22.9 89 77 +15.6 All Properties 8,425 7,962 + 5.8 857 869 ‐1.4 Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 4 2011, © Crown Copyright 6.8.5 Total property sales in the region have risen by 5.8%. The largest increase in sales was flats / maisonettes by 22.9%. 6.8.6 Overall the total property sales in the County have fallen by 1.4%. The largest decrease in sales was in semi‐detached by ‐10.2%, from 304 to 273 units. Table 6 ‐4 Percentage of Sales by Type for Quarter 4 2011 North Northumberland Property Type Sales Q4 2011 (%) Sales Q4 2011 (%) Terraced 36.0 31.1 Semi‐detached 34.4 31.9 Detached 18.8 26.6 Flats & Maisonettes 10.8 10.4 Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 4 2011, © Crown Copyright

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6.8.7 The highest levels of sales in Northumberland are for semi‐detached properties at 31.9% followed closely by terraced properties at 31.1%. The main sales in the Region are for terraced properties at 36.0% closely followed by semi‐detached properties at 34.4% a combined level of 70% of all sales. 6.8.8 The following graph shows the number of properties sold each month in Northumberland by house type. Figure 6 ‐2 Housing Sales by Type in Northumberland

Source: Hometrack This item includes information provided by Land Registry © Crown copyright material reproduced with the permission of Land Registry

6.9 Housing Market Analysis 6.9.1 Two key data searches were commissioned to provide information on house price and sales volumes across the County:‐ ¾ The Land Registry, providing data on all sales in the area; ¾ An Estate Agency survey to assess entry level prices and private rental costs in each of the sub‐areas in the County. 6.9.2 While the County identifies 3 district SHMA areas, in order to analyse the housing market the County was divided into 5 local housing markets, identified by the Council, and consisted of re‐grouping the 37 sub‐areas into 5 local housing market areas.

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6.9.3 The structure is detailed in Table 6 ‐5 below, colour coded to correspond with the map on the following page. Table 6 ‐5 Sub‐Area Structure

Sub‐Areas Sub‐Areas contained within

Northumberland North 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9

Northumberland South East 10,11,12,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37

Northumberland Central 13,14,15,28

Northumberland South 20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27

Northumberland West 16,17,18,19

6.9.4 A map of the 5 Local Housing Market Areas in Northumberland is shown on the next page.

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68 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

6.10 Entry Sales Levels in the County 6.10.1 Entry to the market is clearly dependent on availability, a factor which is particularly critical for low income households who can only enter the market in any numbers where there is an adequate supply of affordable dwellings. 6.10.2 First time buyers (FTB’s) as new entrants to the housing market do not purchase houses at average prices as they do not have average incomes. Although average prices are useful for comparisons in general they are not the purchase levels used in assessing the ability of households to enter local markets. 6.10.3 In broad terms new purchasers of either flats or terraced properties buy in the lowest quartile of prices i.e. the bottom 25%. These price levels are used in all affordability calculations. 6.10.4 An internet search was undertaken to ascertain the cost of the cheapest units available i.e. the lowest quartile stock costs for sale in each of the 5 local housing market areas. These are detailed in the following table. Table 6 ‐6 Entry Sales Levels (£) in the County – February 2012

Northumberland Northumberland Northumberland Property Type North South East Central 1‐Bed Flat 65,000 49,000 95,000 2‐Bed Flat 108,500 61,950 120,000 2‐Bed Terraced 104,000 79,950 99,995 3‐Bed Terraced 120,000 89,950 105,000 2‐Bed Semi 96,000 84,950 99,950 3‐Bed Semi 130,000 92,000 170,000

Northumberland Northumberland Property Type County‐Wide South West 1‐Bed Flat 90,000 ** 55,000 2‐Bed Flat 110,000 75,000 89,950 2‐Bed Terraced 109,950 89,950 98,000 3‐Bed Terraced 115,000 105,000 105,000 2‐Bed Semi 99,950 145,000* 97,500 3‐Bed Semi 145,000 114,950 125,000 Source: DCA House Price Survey February 2012 * Low sample ** No Data 6.10.5 The entry level stock in the County is considered to be flats as they are the cheapest units with an adequate level of supply for sale to households.

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6.10.6 Entry levels for 1‐bedroom flats start at £49,000 in the South East area and rise to £95,000 in the Central area. Entry levels for 2‐bedroom flats start at £61,950 in the South East area and rise to £120,000 in the Central area. 6.10.7 The average price of a terraced property in Northumberland according to the Land Registry data is £119,214 sales levels vary across the County. However the house price search found that the lowest entry prices started at around £79,950 in South East area, rising to £109,950 in the South. 3‐bedroom terraced properties start at £89,950 in the South and rise to £115,000 in the South. 6.10.8 2 bedroom semi‐detached property prices start at £84,950 in South East and rise to £145,000 (based on a low sample) in Northumberland West. 3 bedroom semi‐ detached houses start at £92,000 in South East and rise to £170,000 in the Central area. 6.10.9 County‐wide, entry levels for flats start at £55,000 and prices rise to £125,000 for a 3 bedroom semi‐detached. 6.10.10 The household survey asked concealed households what level of mortgage they were prepared to pay for their first home. Table 6 ‐7 Maximum Monthly Mortgage / Rent of Concealed Households Question 37a All concealed households moving Monthly Mortgage % Cum % Under £300 42.2 42.2 £301 ‐ £400 32.7 74.9 £401 ‐ £450 15.7 90.6 £451 ‐ £650 7.0 97.6 £651 ‐ £865 1.5 99.1 Above £865 0.9 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 6.10.11 74.9% of concealed households could not or would not pay more than £400 a month in mortgage or rent payments.

6.11 Purchase Income Thresholds 6.11.1 The cheapest entry levels (lowest quartile) of the smallest units were assessed to enable threshold income levels to be calculated. These are based on 95% mortgage availability and a 3.5 x gross income lending ratio for single earner households and 2.9 x gross household income for dual income households, the levels recommended in the 2007 Strategic Housing Market Assessments – Practice Guidance (page 42).

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6.11.2 Table 6 ‐8 and Table 6 ‐9 below outline the income ranges needed to enter the market in the 5 local housing market areas for single and couple households. Table 6 ‐8 Single Income Thresholds (£) Income Thresholds (£) Area 1 bed Flat 2 bed Flat 2 bed Terraced Northumberland North 17,600 29,500 28,200 Northumberland South East 13,300 16,800 21,700 Northumberland Central 25,800 32,600 27,100 Northumberland South 24,400 29,900 29,800 Northumberland West ** 20,400 24,400 Source: DCA House Price Survey February 2012 ; figures rounded to nearest hundred ‐ ** No data

Table 6 ‐9 Dual / Couple Income Thresholds

Income Thresholds (£) Area 1 bed Flat 2 bed Flat 2 bed Terraced Northumberland North 21,300 35,500 34,100 Northumberland South East 16,100 20,300 26,200 Northumberland Central 31,100 39,300 32,800 Northumberland South 29,500 36,000 36,000 Northumberland West ** 24,600 29,500 Source: DCA House Price Survey February 2012 ; figures rounded to nearest hundred ‐ ** no data 6.11.3 The following table outlines the incomes required by concealed households to access owner occupation based on the lowest purchase single income thresholds across the County for 1 and 2‐bedroom flats and 2‐bedroom terraced properties. 6.11.4 Overall, the calculation of the proportion of concealed households unable to access the private sector takes account of those who need one and two bedroom housing in the lowest quartile cost stock across the County. Table 6 ‐10 Concealed Households – Incomes Needed to Buy (Single Income) and % Unable to Buy

Type of % Area Income Required Property unable to buy 1‐bed Flat Northumberland South East 13,300 41.2 2‐bed Flat Northumberland South East 16,800 57.7 2‐bed Terraced Northumberland South East 21,700 76.3

6.11.5 Analysing the income requirements from Table 6 ‐8 (single income), 41.2% of concealed households are unable to buy the cheapest 1‐bedroom flat in the County and 57.7% are unable to buy the cheapest 2 bedroom flat. 6.11.6 76.3% of concealed households in the County were unable to buy the cheapest 2‐ bedroom terraced house. 6.11.7 The ability of concealed households to access the market within the County is clearly very limited.

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6.12 Intermediate Housing Costs 6.12.1 New intermediate housing units are an increasingly important sector of the market for new forming households with incomes inadequate to buy outright. 6.12.2 This is also important in relation to the provision of a more balanced housing market. We have therefore analysed the cost of provision of intermediate housing in the area and assessed the proportion of households who may be able to be assisted by new provision of this type. The following table utilises data from the ISOS Homebuy and Rightmove websites. 6.12.3 The table below shows examples of Shared Ownership costs, incomes required and concealed households able to afford. Table 6 ‐11 Shared Ownership Costs, Incomes Required and Affordability

Monthly Cost* Full Sale Service / Minimum Concealed Area Property Type Share Price Income Price Rent Mortgage Estate Total Deposit Households able Required Charge Required to afford (%) 2– bed flat (Resale) 106,600 80,000 (75%) 61 492 TBC 553 8,000 20,109 73.0 North 2‐bed house (New Built) 165,000 82,500 (50%) 189 507 TBC 696 8,250 25,309 83.6 2 – bed bungalow (New Build) 90,000 22,500 (25%) 155 139 TBC 294 2,250 10,909 30.0 South East 3‐bed house (New Build) 105,000 26,250 (25%) 180 162 TBC 342 2,625 12,436 48.3 3‐bed house (Resale) 159,800 39,950 (25%) 275 246 11 532 3,995 19,345 69.7 1‐bed flat (Resale) 138,000 69,000 (50%) 158 424 TBC 582 6,900 21,164 75.2 South 2‐bed flat (Resale) 145,000 72,500 (50%) 166 446 TBC 612 7,250 22,255 77.4 Note: Income required based on monthly housing costs not exceeding 33% of gross income. Deposits Calculated at 10% of Share Price Monthly costs based on 5.5% mortgage rate over 25 years and 2.75% for rent element. % of Concealed Households able to afford each property based on the incomes in the Northumberland Housing Needs Survey 2012. 6.12.4 The last column shows the percentage of people who can afford these shared ownership units based on their incomes. However 85.1% of concealed households have less than £5,000 in savings. Therefore a large majority would need help with the deposit and legal fees from parents or relatives.

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6.13 Private Sector Rent Levels 6.13.1 The data from the internet survey identified the private sector rent levels by property type and size and location set out below. Costs may vary by type and size and reflect varying quality of properties available at a point in time. Table 6 ‐12 Average and Entry Rent Levels, February 2012 (£ p/m)

Property Type Northumberland Northumberland Northumberland Northumberland Northumberland County‐wide North South East Central South West Average Entry Average Entry Average Entry Average Entry Average Entry Average Entry 1‐Bed Flat 382 365 367 320 453 400 441* 350* 350 ** 398 350 2‐Bed Flat 449 425 423 375 584 500 600* 550* 423* 350* 459 390 2‐Bed Terraced 460 400 444 395 491 425 556* 375* 392* 345* 460 395 3‐Bed Terraced 542 495 478 425 660 575 539* 520* 506 495 527 475 2‐Bed Semi‐detached 557 475 464 415 550 350 ** ** 425* 425* 486 425 3‐Bed Semi‐detached 527 475 505 450 825 595 701 595* 613* 525* 608 495 Source: DCA House Price Survey February 2012 * low sample ** no data available 6.13.2 At the time of the housing market search there was a low level of data available in Northumberland South area and the Northumberland West area for certain property types, therefore the data in these areas for the majority of properties is either low or unavailable. 6.13.3 The private rented sector rents start at £320 per month in the South East area and rises to £400 in Northumberland Central. 2‐ bedroom flat rents range from £350 in the West area rising to £550 in the South. 6.13.4 Two bedroom terraced house entry rent level range from £345 in the West area rising to £425 in Northumberland Central. 3‐bedroom terraced properties cost from £425 pcm in the South East area rising to £575 in the Central area. 6.13.5 2‐bedroom semi detached properties cost from £350 pcm in Northumberland Central rising to £475 in Northumberland North. 3‐ bedroom semi detached properties can be rented from £450 pcm in the South East area rising to £595 in the Central and South areas.

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6.13.6 Concealed households in the survey gave details of how much rent per week they could afford to pay and the results can be seen in Table 6 ‐7. 6.13.7 This data was examined to see if those who had specified their preferred tenure as Private Rent could actually access the market rent levels that were identified in the Estate Agents and internet survey.

6.14 Rental Income Thresholds 6.14.1 The lower quartile rental costs of the smallest units available in the County have been assessed in order to calculate the rental income threshold levels. These are based on rent at 25% of gross income (equivalent to 30% of net income). The table below shows the income levels needed to access the private rented market across the County. Table 6 ‐13 Rental Income Thresholds – February 2012

Income Thresholds (£) Area 1 bed Flat 2 bed Flat 2 bed Terraced Northumberland North 17,500 20,400 19,200 Northumberland South East 15,400 18,000 19,000 Northumberland Central 19,200 24,000 20,400 Northumberland South 16,800* 26,400* 18,000* Northumberland West ** 16,800* 16,600* Source: DCA House Price Survey February 2012 ; figures rounded to nearest hundred ‐ ** no data *low sample 6.14.2 The cheapest rental properties in the County were in Northumberland South East and require a minimum income threshold of £15,400. 51.1% of all concealed households in the survey achieved an income of this level. 6.14.3 The table below outlines the income required by concealed households to access the private rental market based on the lowest rental income thresholds across the County for 1 and 2‐bedroom flats and terraced properties, as illustrated in Table 6 ‐14. Table 6 ‐14 Concealed Households – Incomes Needed and % Unable to Rent in the Private Market Annual Income Type of Property Area % Unable to rent Required 1‐bed Flat Northumberland South East 15,400 51.1 2‐bed Flat Northumberland West 16,800 57.7 2‐bed Terraced Northumberland West 16,600 56.8

6.14.4 The data shows that 51.1% of concealed households cannot afford to rent a 1‐ bedroom flat in the County. 6.14.5 57.7% cannot rent a 2‐bedroom flat and 56.8% of concealed households are excluded from the cheapest 2‐bedroom terraced house in the County.

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6.15 Affordable Rents 6.15.1 The Coalition Government decided in April 2011 to introduce Affordable Rents up to 80% of market value for new social rented stock. This decision is to encourage Registered Providers to be less reliant on grant aid for new build schemes and to self finance schemes by charging a higher rent. 6.15.2 However, the decision to introduce Affordable Rents at up to 80% of market value for new social rented stock effectively removes discounted market rent as an intermediate housing option except in areas with very high rents. 6.15.3 Affordable Rents have been introduced to help fund new social housing and for the Registered Provider to be less reliant on grant aid. The level set can be up to 80% of the average Private Rented Sector (PRS) rent and this option has been given to allow housing providers to set it at an affordable level depending on the cost of PRS is their areas. 6.15.4 In areas where the PRS is very expensive a registered provider may introduce Affordable Rents at 60% as 70% and 80% may be too expensive for local residents, whilst in another area where private rented properties are very close to Social Rents the provider may chose to introduce them at 80%. 6.15.5 Further analysis on affordability of each rented sector can be seen in Table 6 ‐16. 6.15.6 The margin between Social Rents and Affordable Rents, in all areas is large enough to make the introduction of Affordable Rents a viable option for 2 and 3 bedroom properties at 80%. In some of the more expensive areas it may also be viable for 70% Affordable Rents to be introduced. 6.15.7 It should be noted that even though it may be viable for the housing providers to provide affordable rented properties this does not automatically mean that this will be affordable to residents as highlighted in paragraph 6.15.9. 6.15.8 Appendix V contains analysis of each sub‐area showing the approximate level of Affordable Rents compared to the local private sector rents that could be applicable to each area. 6.15.9 However, 32.6% of existing households and 60.0% concealed households cannot afford the 80% rent level based on their income. It would therefore be right to assume that should this option be offered to them they would rely on housing benefit to help pay the rent. 6.15.10 The table and graph below shows the levels for the whole County and there is a large enough margin to introduce Affordable Rents. Table 6 ‐15 Average Social Rent up to 80% of Average Private Sector Rent

Average LA Average RP Average 60% of 70% of 80% of

Rent Rent Private Rent PRS PRS PRS

1‐Bed £227 £259 £398 £239 £279 £318 2‐Bed £246 £274 £468 £281 £328 £375 3‐Bed £268 £303 £568 £341 £397 £454 Source: Rents from Tenant Services Authority, PRS Rightmove RP – Registered Provider

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Figure 6 ‐3 County Affordable Rent Levels

Affordable Rent Levels in the County £600 £500 1‐Bed £ £400 2‐Bed

£300 3‐Bed £200 £100 £0 AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE 60% of PRS 70% of PRS 80% of PRS LA RENT RP RENT PRIVATE RENT

Source: RP rents from Tenant Services Authority, PRS Right move

6.16 Local Housing Allowance for Single People 6.16.1 The Local Housing Allowance (LHA) is a way of calculating Housing Benefit for people who live in privately rented accommodation. LHA is a flat rate allowance based on the size of the household (not the size of the property) and the area in which a person lives. 6.16.2 Currently a single person aged under 25 years, who does not have a dependant or a non‐dependant person living with them, will be entitled to the standard rate of Local Housing Allowance for a room in shared accommodation. 6.16.3 However from January 2012 the shared room rate restriction will apply to single people aged under 35 years. Current exemptions, for example for those in receipt of severe disability premium and living in certain types of supported accommodation, will continue to apply. 6.16.4 However when considering housing needs the SHMA Practice Guidance 2007 states that we must include anyone over the age of 25 sharing facilities. Therefore until new SHMA guidance is published anyone over the age of 25 will continue to be included in the calculation for future housing need. 6.16.5 Currently people renting from a council or other social housing provider are not affected by the Local Housing Allowance.

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6.17 Affordability of Rented Properties 6.17.1 Using the income data from the Housing Needs Survey we have assessed the percentage of households who could afford to pay rental payments for each sector. 6.17.2 This has been calculated using the DCA affordability calculator based on a household spending 25% of their income on rent, the Guidance recommended level. Table 6 ‐16 Percentage of Households able to Afford Monthly Rents Size LA Rent Income Required % Existing % Concealed % Newly Formed 1 bed £227 £10,900 76.4 70.1 68.9 2 bed £246 £11,800 75.1 65.8 66.9 3 bed £268 £12,900 73.6 60.6 64.6 RP Rent 1 bed £259 £12,400 74.3 63.0 65.6 2 bed £274 £13,200 73.2 59.2 63.9 3 bed £303 £14,500 71.3 53.1 61.1 PRS 1 bed £398 £19,100 64.8 31.4 51.2 2 bed £468 £22,500 59.9 22.0 43.9 3 bed £568 £27,300 52.2 13.1 34.7 60% AR 1 bed £239 £11,500 75.6 67.2 67.6 2 bed £281 £13,500 72.7 57.8 63.3 3 bed £341 £16,400 68.6 44.2 57.0 70% AR 1 bed £279 £13,400 72.9 58.3 63.5 2 bed £328 £15,700 69.6 47.5 58.5 3 bed £397 £19,100 64.8 31.4 51.2 80% AR 1 bed £318 £15,300 70.2 49.3 59.4 2 bed £375 £18,000 66.3 36.6 53.6 3 bed £454 £21,800 60.9 33.5 45.4

6.17.3 The percentage of households able to afford Social Rent and Affordable Rent at 60% is very similar. 6.17.4 However there is a reasonably large margin of those who can afford rents in the PRS compared to those who can afford Affordable Rented Properties. This is encouraging news for Registered Providers in the County when considering the tenure of new developments. 6.17.5 However, the Tenancy Strategy must take into account that it is most likely that the people who can afford Affordable Rent will not be those in priority need and therefore will more than likely rely on housing benefit to pay the rent.

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6.18 Second Homes 6.18.1 The Survey of English Housing† defines second homes as “properes, owned or rented by a household member, which are not the household's main residence. However properties which are the main residence of someone else, or which the owner intends to sell because they have moved are not counted as second homes”. 6.18.2 DCA research has revealed that the determination of an exact number of second homes either nationally or locally is difficult. Living and working arrangements in the UK are increasingly complex, for example with one member of a family perhaps working away and requiring a second home, and people living or working abroad and retaining a property in the UK. 6.18.3 The 2009/10 Survey of English Housing reported that around 279,000 households in England had a second home, representing a rise of over 30% compared to 2001. There are nationally clear concentrations of second homes in the coastal regions of the South West, North Norfolk, Cumbria, Northumberland and North Yorkshire. 6.18.4 Northumberland Council Tax data shows that there are currently 3,056 second homes in the County which is 2.2% of the total 136, 906 households. This is however an issue which particularly affects rural areas which are also coastal and linked to tourism. 6.18.5 The 2001 Census recorded 1,138 second / holiday homes in Berwick on Tweed and 693 in Alnwick former authority areas, 8.5% and 4.6% respectively. 6.18.6 The level of second homes in small coastal communities is high and these have a major impact on the housing market. These parishes with high levels of second‐home discount are listed in the table below. Table 6 ‐17 Parishes with a high proportion of Second Homes Parish Total Properties Second Homes % Alnmouth 304 70 23.0 Amble 2,796 47 1.7 Bamburgh 254 136 53.5 Beadnell 589 321 54.5 Craster 218 66 30.3 Longhoughton 724 24 3.3 North Sunderland & Seahouses 1,221 261 21.4 Newton by the Sea 149 52 34.8 Warkworth 842 77 9.1

6.18.7 In six parishes more than one in five properties are second homes, two have around a third and in Bamburgh and Beadnell it is over half of all dwellings. These are very high proportions in small communities. 6.18.8 The private rented sector is also very limited in these areas, because supply for long term letting is low and the majority of homes are let in the holiday market. 6.18.9 The second homes market is expected to be increasingly dominated by older people with a high disposable income. Younger families however are likely to be pushed out of the area by high prices, and lack of local services and facilities.

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7 MIGRATION

7.1 Key Findings ¾ 9,148 implied households had in‐migrated to Northumberland over the last five years from outside the County, 41.0% had moved from ‘elsewhere in the UK’ and 23.5% from Newcastle upon Tyne. ¾ The main reason for the move into the County in the last five years was family reasons at 54.3%. ¾ 20.1% of in‐migrating households moved into the County to form their first household. ¾ Of those who had moved within the County, 1,858 implied; 9.6% had moved from Blyth, 1,749 implied; 9.0% from Cramlington / East Hartford and 1,313 implied; 6.8% from Berwick / Spittal / Tweedmouth / East Ord. ¾ Over the next five years 20.3% of existing households and 11.7% of concealed households are expected to move out of the County. ¾ In the case of both existing and concealed households the main single interest was in moving to “elsewhere in the UK”. ¾ The main reason for the out‐migration for existing households was family reasons at 44.4% and for concealed households it was employment / access to work at 57.5%. ¾ The main net in‐migration was from Newcastle upon Tyne at +1,312, followed by elsewhere in the UK at + 854. The only net out‐migration was to the Scottish Borders at ‐ 85 and Abroad at ‐ 56. ¾ Over the past five years there was a net in‐migration of 3,658 households into the County, 36% of whom were from Newcastle.

7.2 Introduction 7.2.1 This section looks at the patterns of migration for the County. In the first part of the section, the 33,731 implied households (24.6% of the sample) who had moved in the last 5 years were asked where they had moved from. 7.2.2 72.9% had previously lived within the County; 27.1% had moved in from outside the County (9,148 implied households).

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7.3 In‐Migration to the County 7.3.1 9,148 households had in‐migrated to Northumberland over the last five years from outside the County. 40.7% had moved from “elsewhere in the UK”, 23.5% from Newcastle upon Tyne and 12% from North Tyneside. Table 7 ‐1 Location of Previous Dwelling (In‐migrants) Question 5a Location % Nos. Elsewhere in the UK 40.7 3,722 Newcastle Upon Tyne 23.5 2,147 North Tyneside 12.0 1,095 Durham 5.7 521 Gateshead 4.5 414 South Tyneside 4.1 378 Abroad 3.9 358 Scottish Borders 3.5 322 Carlisle 1.0 90 Eden 1.1 101 Total 100.0 9,148 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 7.3.2 Those who had moved into the County within the last 5 years were then asked what the three most important reasons were for moving home, each giving two responses on average. 7.3.3 The main reasons for moving into the County in the last five years were: family reasons (54.3%); quality of neighbourhood; 38.8%, financial reasons; 28.7% and employment / access to work at 25.1%. 7.3.4 20.1% of all those who had in‐migrated into the County said that it was their first independent home as an adult. Table 7 ‐2 Reason for Moving for those Moving into the County Question 5d Reason % Households Nos. implied Family reasons 54.3 21,945 Quality of neighbourhood 38.8 15,701 Financial reasons 28.7 11,591 Employment / access to work 25.1 10,134 Retirement 15.3 6,200 Unable to afford to buy locally 12.0 4,858 Education 10.6 4,284 No suitable accommodation for disability / 8.9 3,598 health needs Lack of affordable rented housing 6.1 2,469 Lack of public transport 3.0 1,228 Unable to access care and support 2.0 795 Total 82,803 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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7.4 Out ‐ Migration from the County 7.4.1 Out‐migration is expected to account for 20.3% of all moves for existing moving households (3,863 implied) and 11.7% of concealed households over the next 5 years (2,215 moves implied). 7.4.2 Those moving out of the area were asked where they were thinking of relocating. In this case 3,595 implied existing households (65.3%) and 1,895 implied concealed households (34.5%) responded to this question. 7.4.3 In the case of existing households moving, the main single interest was in moving elsewhere in the UK at 44.5% with the second most popular choice being Newcastle upon Tyne at 16.4%. 7.4.4 In the case of concealed households moving, 67.0% were interested in moving to elsewhere in the UK, followed by 13.0% moving to Newcastle upon Tyne. Table 7 ‐3 Location of Move for those Moving Outside the County Question 18c

Existing households Concealed households Location % Nos. implied % Nos. implied Elsewhere in the UK 44.6 1,599 67.0 1,269 Newcastle upon Tyne 16.4 588 13.0 247 Scottish Borders 9.0 322 4.5 85 Abroad 8.9 320 5.0 94 North Tyneside 7.1 256 4.4 83 Durham 5.3 192 1.4 27 Gateshead 4.8 174 0.0 0 Eden 1.8 66 1.0 19 Carlisle 1.2 44 2.0 38 South Tyneside 0.9 34 1.7 33 Total 100.0 3,595 100.0 1,895 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 7.4.5 Those moving out of the area were asked their reasons for moving away. 3,771 implied existing households (97.6% of those intending to move out of the area) and 1,876 implied concealed households (84.7% of those intending to move outside the area) responded to this multiple choice question. 7.4.6 In the case of existing households the main reasons were family reasons at 44.4% and employment / access to work at 31.6%. 7.4.7 In the case of concealed households moving, choices were more focused on employment / access to work (57.5%), followed by education at 28.2%, as might be expected from a group likely to have a younger profile.

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7.4.8 Table 7 ‐4 below shows the full breakdown of reasons for moving out of the County for both existing and concealed households. Table 7 ‐4 Reason for Moving Out of the County Question 18d

Existing households Concealed households Reason % Nos. % Nos. households implied households implied Family Reasons 44.4 1,674 21.6 406 Employment / Access to work 31.6 1,190 57.5 1,079 Financial Reasons 22.7 855 5.2 97 Lack of public transport 17.0 642 1.7 32 Retirement 16.0 602 3.5 66 Quality of neighbourhood 14.3 540 1.3 24 Education 11.5 434 28.2 530 Unable to afford to buy locally 6.0 227 4.5 84 No suitable accommodation for 5.9 222 1.1 21 disability / health needs Lack of affordable rented housing 4.4 165 2.9 55 Unable to access care and support 3.9 148 0.0 0 Total 6,699 2,394 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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7.5 Migration Summary 7.5.1 The tables below show the number of existing households who have moved in the past 5 years. It reflects the net migration patterns for existing households. 7.5.2 The main net in‐migration to the County was from Newcastle upon Tyne at +1,312, followed by elsewhere in the UK at +854 and North Tyneside at +756. 7.5.3 The lowest in‐migration was from Carlisle at +8 and Eden at +16. 7.5.4 The only net out‐migration was found from the Scottish Borders at ‐85 and abroad at ‐56. 7.5.5 Over the past 5 years the total net migration for the whole County was +3,658 households. 35.9% of net migration was from Newcastle. Table 7 ‐5 Net Migration Patterns

North South Newcastle upon Migration Areas Gateshead Tyneside Tyneside Tyne Moving into The County 1,095 378 2,147 414 Moving out of The 339 67 835 174 County

Net Migration +756 +311 +1,312 +240

Scottish Migration Areas Durham Carlisle Eden Borders Moving into The County 521 90 101 322 Moving out of The County 219 82 85 407

Net Migration +302 +8 +16 ‐85

Elsewhere Migration Areas Abroad Total in the UK

Moving into The County 3,722 358 9,148

Moving out of The County 2,868 414 5,490

Net Migration +854 ‐56 +3,658

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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7.6 Internal Household Movers 7.6.1 19,352 local households who had moved within the County within the last 5 years and confirmed their previous location, were then asked where they had moved from, the table shows a breakdown by the 37 areas. 7.6.2 1,858; 9.6% had moved away from Blyth, 1,749; 9.0% had moved away from Cramlington / East Hartford and 1,313; 6.8% had moved away from Berwick / Spittal / Tweedmouth / East Ord. Table 7 ‐6 Location of Previous Dwelling by 37 areas Question 5b Location % Nos. Location % Nos. Location % Nos. 1 6.8 1,313 13 4.9 954 25 2.2 419 2 1.2 223 14 2.7 520 26 2.1 407 3 0.7 139 15 2.4 471 27 0.8 162 4 1.1 210 16 1.7 327 28 1.6 300 5 0.7 137 17 1.5 285 29 1.6 316 6 1.3 259 18 1.3 244 30 5.2 1,004 7 5.6 1,091 19 0.7 137 31 5.8 1,125 8 2.1 414 20 0.5 106 32 2.7 521 9 2.2 429 21 0.9 182 33 1.2 225 10 2.6 504 22 1.0 190 34 3.0 573 11 1.4 263 23 3.6 692 35 9.6 1,858 12 0.4 87 24 1.5 282 36 9.0 1,749 37 6.4 1,235 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

Table 7 ‐7 Location of Previous Dwelling by SHMA Area Question 5b North City Region Urban

Northumberland Commuter Northumberland North Northumberland 3,565 447 58 City Region Commuter 769 5,205 745 Urban Northumberland 387 692 7,489

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8 HOUSEHOLDS INTENDING TO MOVE

8.1 Key Findings ¾ 14.2% of all households planned a move within the County in the next 5 years. ¾ 7,004 existing households require market housing and 3,430 need affordable housing. ¾ 2,315 concealed households require market housing and 2,665 need affordable housing. ¾ The main tenure requirement for existing households was owner occupation and concealed households were for social rent. ¾ There are around 7,925 households who wish to move within the County but cannot do so, 61.0% of whom are unable to afford to buy a home.

8.2 Introduction 8.2.1 This section examines the responses from the household survey in relation to the future intentions and plans of both existing and concealed households within Northumberland over the next five years. The data from this section is then further analysed in Section 9 focusing on those households specifically requiring market housing and Section 10 looking at those households requiring affordable housing.

8.3 Households Moving 8.3.1 Moving intentions were tested in the survey questionnaire with an emphasis on future plans to move within the County for existing households and also a more focused study on concealed households who represent pent up demand for housing. 8.3.2 Respondents were asked to say whether they or any members of the household were currently seeking to move or will do so in the next five years. 14.2% of all households responding (19,330 implied) planned a move. A further 5.8% (7,925 implied) indicated that they wished to move but were unable to do so. 8.3.3 The scale of movement implies an average of 2.8% per annum, but this proportion would rise to 4.0% if all those wishing to move in the period were able to do so. Table 8 ‐1 Households Moving by Current Tenure Question 18a x Q1 % Nos. implied Owner occupation with mortgage 48.1 9,305 Owner occupation no mortgage 17.9 3,466 Private rent 19.1 3,695 Social Rent 14.0 2,703 Tied to employment / Living Rent Free 0.9 161 Shared Ownership 0.0 0 Total 100.0 19,330

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8.3.4 This is a low level and probably reflects forecasting in the current economy where house sales levels have been half of the levels in 2005 – 2007. 8.3.5 The scale of movement is highest from market housing with 66% of current movers moving from owner occupation and 19.1% from private rent. The combined moves from social rent were only 14%.

8.4 Households Prevented from Moving 8.4.1 Those indicating a wish to move but an inability to do so offered the following reasons for not being able to move. The number of implied households responding was 9,022, giving an average of 2.1 reasons to the multiple choice question. 8.4.2 It is clear from the responses analysed below that affordability was by far the most important factor with 61% said they were unable to afford to buy a home and 30.0% stating a lack of affordable rented housing. 40.9% of households indicated there was a lack of suitable property types in the area they wished to move to. Table 8 ‐2 Reasons Preventing a Move Question 18e Reason % responses % households Nos. implied Unable to afford to buy a home 28.6 61.0 5,506 Lack of suitable property types 19.1 40.9 3,687 Lack of affordable rented housing 14.0 30.0 2,706 Unable to pay rent / deposit in advance 9.1 19.4 1,747 Level of personal debt 7.2 15.2 1,369 Unable of afford removal costs 7.1 15.2 1,369 Family reasons 5.5 11.9 1,069 Do not wish to leave school catchment 4.4 9.4 850 Location of employment 3.0 6.4 580 Cannot move due to health problems 2.0 4.4 394 Total 100.0 19,277

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8.5 Demand for Existing Moving Households 8.5.1 The table below shows the preferred tenure for existing households moving in the next five years by their current tenure. Table 8 ‐3 Current Tenure / Tenure Preferred (Existing Households) Question 1 / 23

Current Tenure

Tied to Preferred Tenure Shared O/O with mortgage O/O no mortgage Private rent Social rented employment/ Living Total Ownership rent free

% Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. Owner occupation 83.4 3,564 78.5 1,482 37.3 859 2.3 45 0.0 0 47.0 24 5,974 Private rent 7.1 304 1.3 24 27.6 638 2.9 56 0.0 0 15.7 8 1,030 Social Rent 9.1 391 18.8 355 33.3 766 94.8 1,818 0.0 0 37.3 19 3,348 Shared Ownership 0.4 16 1.4 27 1.8 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 82 Total 100.0 4,275 100.0 1,888 100.0 2303 100.0 1,919 0.0 0 100.0 51 10,436 Note: no response from Shared Equity 8.5.2 In total 7,004 existing households require market housing, this group is analysed in detail in Section 9.3. A further 3,430 existing households require affordable housing, this group is analysed in detail in Section 10.4. 8.5.3 There is some significant cross tenure movement especially to social rent from 33.3% of movers from the private rented sector and 18.8% from owner‐occupiers with no mortgage and 9.1% of owners with a mortgage. Only 2.9% of social rent tenants expect to move into the private sector.

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8.6 Demand for Concealed Moving Households 8.6.1 This section examines in detail those people living in an existing household but who are described as a ‘concealed’ household which is taken as a proxy for the extent of ‘concealment’ of housing need within the County because these households represent a pent up and unmet demand for housing. 8.6.2 The questionnaire allowed for up to two concealed households to be identified within each existing household, each intending to form a new home within the County in the next five years. 8.6.3 A total of 4,980 concealed households planning to form in the next 5 years were identified from an average of 1st (4,350) and 2nd (630) concealed households in the detailed data tables and this is the figure used as a control total in this section. 8.6.4 The majority (86.5%) of the total of concealed households consisted of people described as children of the household; a further 3.8% were grandparents and 3.2% partner / spouse (reflecting relationship breakdown). Table 8 ‐4 Concealed Household Formation in the Next Five Years? Question 27 Concealed households % Nos. implied Child (16+) 86.5 4,309 Grandparent 3.8 189 Partner / Spouse 3.2 159 Lodger / Friend 2.8 139 Other Relative 2.6 129 Parent 1.1 55 Total 100.0 4,980

8.6.5 Respondents were asked what the age of each adult was in the concealed household. The results can be seen in Table 8 ‐5 below. Table 8 ‐5 Age of Concealed Households Question 28c Age Groups % Nos. implied 16 – 24 65.2 3,247 25 – 34 21.3 1,061 35 ‐ 49 5.1 254 50 ‐ 64 2.7 135 65 ‐ 79 5.6 278 80+ 0.1 5 Total 100.0 4,980

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8.6.6 The largest age group forming is unsurprisingly aged 16‐24 at 65.2% but a high number of adults in the concealed household were aged 25 – 34 (21.3%). There is also a significant group of 283 people aged over 65 currently living with younger family who plan to move to independent or supported housing. 8.6.7 The survey found that children (under the age of 16) were present (or due) in 8.5% of all households planning to form (423 implied). Table 8 ‐6 Number of Children Question 28d Children % Nos. implied None 91.5 4,557 One 5.3 264 Two or more 1.4 69 Child due 1.8 90 Total 100.0 4,980

8.6.8 New households were asked whether they were being formed as a single or couple household, 62.5% indicated formation as a single household, 37.5% as a couple. 8.6.9 Households indicating a couple household were also asked where their partner was currently living. In 52.3% of cases the partner was living elsewhere within Northumberland resulting in a potential double count which is addressed in the CLG Assessment Model Calculation. In 34.2% of cases the partner was already living in the existing household. Table 8 ‐7 Time of Move ‐ Concealed Households Question 30 When required % Nos. implied Within 1 year 31.2 1,554 1 ‐ 2 years 28.6 1,424 2 ‐ 3 years 22.5 1,120 3 ‐ 5 years 17.7 882 Total 100.0 4,980

8.6.10 31.2% of concealed households required a move within a year, 28.6% required a move a year later, a total of 59.8% within two years. 8.6.11 The Strategic Housing Market Assessment Practice Guidance recommends that for model purposes the scale of annual new household formation is calculated as an average over the first two years as the most reliable data in the CLG model in Section 14.

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8.6.12 The table below shows the tenure most needed and preferred for concealed moving households in the next five years within Northumberland. Table 8 ‐8 Tenure Needed / Preferred (Concealed Households) Question 29a / Question 29b Needed Preferred Tenure % Nos. implied % Nos. implied

Owner 18.3 911 62.1 3,092 occupation

MARKET Private rent 28.2 1,404 11.6 578

Social rent 47.4 2,361 18.9 941 RP Shared 2.3 115 6.9 344 Ownership RP Shared

AFFORDABLE 3.8 189 0.5 25 Equity Total 100.0 4,980 100.0 4,980

8.6.13 In terms of the needs of concealed households forming in Northumberland, the largest proportion need Social rent (47.4%), followed by private rent (28.2%). 8.6.14 The most preferred tenure is owner occupation with more concealed households preferring this tenure than saying they actually needed it (62.1 v 18.3%). 8.6.15 There is also a proportionately high level of preference for shared ownership reflecting the desire for some form of purchase rather than rent. 8.6.16 Our analysis is however based only on the needs data. The market housing sector data for this group is analysed in detail in Section 9.4 and the affordable housing sector in Section 10.5.

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9 FUTURE MARKET HOUSING REQUIREMENTS

9.1 Key Findings Existing Households ¾ 5,975 households are planning a move to owner occupied housing and 1,029 are planning a move to private rented housing. ¾ 41.3% plan to move within one year and 32.5% plan a move in 1‐2 years. ¾ In the County as a whole, the main type of property required is detached and semi‐detached houses and the majority of movers require a 3 bedroom unit. ¾ The most popular choice in terms of location was Blyth (13.8%) followed by Morpeth (13.6%). ¾ The main reason for choice of location was to be nearer family and friends, followed by always lived here and better quality of area.

Concealed Households ¾ 911 concealed households are planning a move to owner occupied housing, 1,404 to private rent. ¾ Around 27.8% plan to move within a year and 27.1% within 1 to 2 years. ¾ 57.4% can realistically afford flats / maisonettes but only 22.2% prefer flats / maisonettes. ¾ 49.8% require a one bedroom unit, but only 4.8% prefer a one bedroom. 39.7% require a 2‐bedroom property. ¾ The highest demand for location choice was for Blyth at 18% followed by Morpeth (11.7%). ¾ The most popular reasons for choice of location were nearness to family / friends and always lived here followed by new job/employment.

9.2 Introduction 9.2.1 This section analyses the needs of existing households and concealed households who are planning to move into market housing within Northumberland over the next 3 years. The section is split for analysis of existing households at 9.3 and separately for concealed households at 9.4.

9.3 Demand for Market Housing for Existing Moving Households 9.3.1 As seen in section 8 at Table 8‐3, 5,975 existing households are planning to move into owner occupied housing and 1,029 are planning to move into private rented housing, giving a total demand of 7,004 for market housing within the County in the next 5 years. This is the control total used in the analysis for this section. 9.3.2 Some tables in this section include a column showing figures for “all tenures” i.e. including those existing households needing affordable housing, as a comparison.

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Table 9 ‐1 When is the Accommodation Required (Existing Households) Question 19 Time Market Housing % Nos. implied All Tenures % Within 1 year 41.3 2,893 40.2 1 ‐ 2 years 32.5 2,276 31.5 2 ‐ 3 years 14.7 1,030 15.5 3 ‐ 5 years 11.5 805 12.8 Total 100.0 7,004 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.3.3 The table above shows that 41.3% of potential movers to market housing sought to do so within one year and 32.5% sought to do so within 1 to 2 years. The levels were very similar to the all tenure level. Table 9 ‐2 Type of Accommodation Required (Existing Households) Question 20 Type Market Housing % Nos. implied All Tenures % Detached 32.1 2,248 22.8 Semi‐detached 29.4 2,059 28.5 Bungalow 16.6 1,163 24.9 Terraced 14.5 1,016 12.4 Flat / maisonette 4.3 301 6.9 Supported / Sheltered 1.2 84 3.0 Housing Bedsit 0.8 56 0.6 Caravan / mobile home 0.6 42 0.4 Housing adapted for 0.5 35 0.5 disability needs Total 100.0 7,004 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.3.4 32.1% of existing households moving to market housing felt that they required a detached property, higher than the proportion of all existing households moving (22.8%). Interest in flats / maisonettes was low at 4.3%. 9.3.5 There was little interest in supported housing from those moving to market housing (1.2%), lower than the results found amongst the whole population (3.0%). Table 9 ‐3 Number of Bedrooms Required (Existing Households) Question 22 Bedrooms Market Housing % Nos. Implied All Tenures % One 3.6 252 8.9 Two 25.9 1,814 39.1 Three 49.2 3,446 37.7 Four 18.8 1,317 12.7 Five or more 2.5 175 1.6 Total 100.0 7,004 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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9.3.6 The highest demand of those moving to market housing was for 3‐bedroom properties at 49.2%, the highest demand for all tenures was for 2 bedroom properties at 39.1%. The need for four or more bedrooms was 21.3% for those moving to market housing but 14.3% for all tenures. 9.3.7 Cross‐tabulation relating type of property required to size required for market housing showed the following results. Table 9 ‐4 Type Required by Size Required (Existing Households) Question 20 by Question 22 One bed Two bed Three bed Four beds Five + beds Total Type Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. Semi‐ 0 0.0 512 28.3 1,188 34.5 365 27.7 0 0.0 2,065 detached Detached 0 0.0 157 8.7 958 27.8 943 71.6 175 100.0 2,233 Terraced 34 13.1 385 21.3 593 17.2 9 0.7 0 0.0 1,021 Flat/ maisonette / 116 44.5 242 13.4 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 358 Bedsit Bungalow 53 20.6 418 23.1 700 20.3 0 0.0 0 0.0 1,171 Housing adapted for 0 0.0 34 1.9 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 34 disability needs Caravan / 0 0.0 34 1.9 7 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 41 mobile home Supported / sheltered 56 21.8 25 1.4 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 81 Housing Total 259 100.0 1,807 100.0 3,446 100.0 1,317 100.0 175 100.0 7,004 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.3.8 34.5% of households requiring 3‐bedrooms want a semi‐detached house and 27.6% require a detached property. 9.3.9 71.6% of households requiring 4‐bedrooms and all households requiring 5‐bedrooms want a detached property. 9.3.10 All the demand for flats / maisonettes was for 1 and 2 bedroom units. 21.3% of respondents requiring 2‐bedrooms want terraced houses and 23.1% require a bungalow.

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9.3.11 Cross‐tabulation to compare type of property required with tenure preferred showed the following results. Table 9 ‐5 Type Required by Preferred Tenure (Existing Households) Question 20 by Question 23

Owner occupation Private rented Total Type % Nos. % Nos. Nos.

Semi‐detached 27.5 1,641 39.8 413 2,054

Detached 35.1 2,093 15.8 164 2,257

Terraced 15.5 925 8.3 86 1,011

Flat / maisonette 1.4 84 20.9 217 301

Bedsit 0.0 0 5.3 55 55

Bungalow 18.8 1,122 3.9 40 1,162

Caravan / Mobile Home 0.6 36 0.7 7 43

Housing adapted for 0.6 36 0.0 0 36 disability needs

Supported / Sheltered 0.5 30 5.3 55 85 Housing

Total 100.0 5,967 100.0 1,037 7,004 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.3.12 35.1% of demand in the owner occupied sector was for detached properties; 27.5% for semi‐detached and 18.8% for bungalows. 9.3.13 39.8% of demand in the private rented sector was for semi‐detached and 20.9% of demand was for flats / maisonettes.

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9.3.14 Existing households moving were asked where accommodation was required. Up to 2 choices were offered but on average only 1.5 choices were made. Table 9 ‐6 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 37 areas Question 5b Location % Nos. Location % Nos. Location % Nos.

1 1.7 119 13 8.4 589 25 4.1 287 2 0.7 49 14 3.1 217 26 2.1 147 3 0.3 21 15 2.3 161 27 0.9 63 4 0.4 28 16 1.1 77 28 3.1 217 5 0.5 35 17 2.4 168 29 2.4 168 6 1.2 84 18 1.0 70 30 5.9 413 7 4.4 309 19 0.9 63 31 3.3 231 8 3.8 266 20 1.2 84 32 1.5 105 9 1.3 91 21 1.5 105 33 1.5 105 10 1.5 106 22 1.6 112 34 2.1 147 11 1.4 98 23 5.3 371 35 8.5 596 12 0.1 7 24 4.5 294 36 6.5 455 37 7.8 546 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.3.15 The most popular location choices were Blyth (8.5%) followed by Morpeth at 8.4%. The lowest response was for Widdrington Station and Stobswood at 0.1%. Table 9 ‐7 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 3 SHMA Areas Question 25 % All tenures% Location Nos. implied Responses (Households)

North Northumberland 15.7 1,108 18.7

City Region Commuter 47.2 3,298 39.8

Urban Northumberland 37.1 2,598 41.5

Total 100.0 7,004 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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9.3.16 The average number of reasons for choice of a particular location was 2.9. Table 9 ‐8 Reason for Preferred Location Question 26 % % Nos. implied All tenures Reason responses households (all choices) % Nearer family /friends 17.7 50.7 1,241 58.5 Always lived here 13.5 38.5 947 44.8 Better quality of area 12.1 34.7 847 30.0 Closer / easier to commute to 10.9 31.0 763 25.2 work Retirement 7.8 22.2 546 22.0 Accessibility to public transport 7.4 21.2 518 20.1 Quality of local schools 7.4 21.3 518 17.8 Better shopping / 7.4 21.1 518 19.4 leisure facilities Availability of type of housing 6.4 18.2 448 13.5 Able to afford local housing 6.3 18.1 441 16.3 Health / personal care reasons 1.8 5.2 126 10.1 Employment / New Job 1.3 3.7 91 5.7 Total 100.0 7,004 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.3.17 Nearer family & friends (50.7%) was the most common choice, followed by always lived here (38.5%) and better quality of area at 34.7%. The lowest chosen reason was employment / new job at just 3.7%. 9.3.18 The major reasons appear to be those which are key elements of those to be considered in sustainable developments and in building sustainable communities.

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9.4 Demand for Market Housing for Concealed Households 9.4.1 As seen in Table 8 ‐8, 911 concealed households are planning to move into owner occupied housing and 1,404 are planning to move into private rented housing, giving a total demand of 2,315 for market housing within the County in the next 5 years. 9.4.2 This is the control total used in the analysis for this section. Table 9 ‐9 When is the Accommodation Required (Concealed Households) Question 30 Time Market Housing % Nos. implied All Tenures % Within 1 year 27.8 644 31.1 1 ‐ 2 years 27.1 627 28.6 2 ‐ 3 years 21.5 498 22.6 3 – 5 years 23.6 546 17.7 Total 100.0 2,315 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 2012 9.4.3 27.8% of concealed households moving to market housing are moving within 1 year, with a further 27.1% within 1‐2 years. 21.5% are moving in the longer term 2 to 3 years and 23.6% within 3 to 5 years. 9.4.4 The data for “preference” as well as need is included as a comparison, to show the gap between needs and aspirations for this group. Table 9 ‐10 Type of Accommodation that can be realistically afforded / Preferred (Concealed Households) Question 31a Realistically Afford Preferred Type Nos. Nos. % % implied implied Flat / maisonette / Bedsit 57.4 1,328 22.2 514 Terraced 18.6 431 24.9 576 Semi‐detached 16.6 384 40.8 945 Detached 3.1 72 10.9 252 Bungalow 2.4 56 0.8 19 Housing adapted for disability needs 1.9 44 0.0 0 Supported housing 0.0 0 0.4 9 Total 100.0 2,315 100.0 2,315 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 2012 Note: No data for other types 9.4.5 The results from the survey showed a different profile from existing households moving, as might be expected for a generally younger group. 57.4% of concealed households moving to market housing needed flats / maisonettes compared with 4.3% of existing households.

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9.4.6 The more aspirational view usually reflected amongst concealed households moving to market housing on preference for type (i.e. more houses; fewer flats) was evident in Northumberland as found in other recent DCA surveys. Table 9 ‐11 Number of Bedrooms Needed / Preferred (Concealed Households) Question 31b Needed Preferred Bedrooms % Nos. implied % Nos. implied

One 49.8 1,153 4.8 111

Two 39.7 919 72.9 1,688

Three 9.7 225 13.6 315

Four + 0.8 18 8.7 201

Total 100.0 2,315 100.0 2,315 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 2012 9.4.7 49.8% of concealed households needed one bedroom whilst there was only a small preference for a one bedroom property (4.8%). 39.7% of concealed households actually needed a 2‐bedroom property but 72.9% would prefer 2 bedrooms. 9.4.8 The data was analysed regarding concealed households moving, relating to the type of property needed by both the size needed and the tenure needed. The results are shown in the tables below. Table 9 ‐12 Type Needed by Size Needed (Concealed Households) Question 31a by Question 31b 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4‐bed Total Type % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. Nos. Semi‐Detached 9.7 109 11.0 103 78.6 183 0.0 0 395 Detached 0.0 0 5.5 52 1.9 4 100.0 19 75 Terraced 17.8 200 22.2 208 15.2 35 0.0 0 443 Flat / maisonette / 67.5 761 61.3 575 4.3 10 0.0 0 1,346 Bedsit Bungalow 1.1 12 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 12 Housing adapted 3.9 44 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 44 for disability needs Total 100.0 1,126 100.0 938 100.0 232 100.0 19 2,315 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 2012 Note: No data for other types 9.4.9 67.5% of demand for a 1‐bedroom and 61.3% of demand for a 2 bedroom property was for a flat / maisonette / bedsit. 9.4.10 78.6% who need 3 bedrooms require a semi‐detached property and all concealed households who need 4 bedrooms needed a detached property.

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Table 9 ‐13 Type Needed by Tenure Needed (Concealed Households) Question 31a by Question 29a Owner Occupation Private rented Total Type % Nos. % Nos. Nos. Semi‐detached 25.5 243 10.4 142 385 Detached 7.0 67 0.5 7 74 Terraced 22.7 217 15.8 215 432 Flat / maisonette / Bedsit 34.5 329 73.3 997 1,326 Flat as part of a shared house / 5.8 55 0.0 0 55 conversion Housing adapted for disability 4.5 43 0.0 0 43 needs Total 100.0 954 100.0 1,361 2,315 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey No data for other house types 9.4.11 34.5% of demand in the owner occupied sector was for flat / maisonette / Bedsits and 25.5% was for semi‐detached housing. 73.3% of demand in the private rented sector was for flat / maisonette/ Bedsit and 15.8% was for terraced housing. 9.4.12 Concealed households were asked the same questions on location as existing households moving. Table 9 ‐14 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) by 37 areas Question 5b Location % Nos. Location % Nos. Location % Nos. 1 0.6 14 13 5.0 116 25 5.0 116 2 0.3 7 14 1.2 28 26 4.9 113 3 0.0 0 15 4.1 95 27 0.7 16 4 0.5 12 16 0.2 5 28 4.2 97 5 0.0 0 17 0.8 19 29 1.2 28 6 0.3 7 18 3.3 76 30 3.0 69 7 3.1 72 19 2.3 53 31 3.6 83 8 2.4 56 20 0.9 21 32 2.4 56 9 0.0 0 21 3.9 90 33 0.0 0 10 0.8 19 22 2.8 65 34 4.5 104 11 0.0 0 23 4.4 102 35 9.9 229 12 0.9 21 24 3.4 79 36 8.6 198 37 10.8 249 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.4.13 The most popular location choice amongst concealed households was area 37 (Seaton Delaval, New Hartley, Seaton Sluice, Old Hartley, Holywell and Seghill) at 10.8%. 9.9% opted for area 35 (Blyth) and 8.6% concealed households chose area 36 (Cramlington and East Hartford). 9.4.14 The table below shows the results by SHMA areas.

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Table 9 ‐15 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) by 3 SHMA Areas Question 25 Location % Responses Nos. implied All tenures % (Households) North Northumberland 8.1 187 18.7 City Region Commuter 49.2 1,140 39.8 Urban Northumberland 42.7 988 41.5 Total 100.0 2,315 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.4.15 The highest demand by SHMA area was for the City Region Commuter area at 49.2%, followed closely by Urban Northumberland at 42.7%. Only 8.1% opted for North Northumberland compared with 15.7% of existing households moving. 9.4.16 The final question in this section asked respondents why they preferred a particular location. The average number of choices was around 3.0. Table 9 ‐16 Reason for Preferred Location (Concealed Households) Question 34 Concealed households moving to Market Housing Reason Nos. implied (all % responses % households choices) Nearer family /friends 29.6 89.5 685 Always lived here 19.4 58.4 449 Better quality of area 10.4 31.5 241 New job / Employment 9.6 29.1 222 Able to afford local housing 8.7 26.3 201 Accessibility to public transport 5.8 17.4 134 Nearer / Better shopping / leisure facilities 5.7 17.2 132 Availability of type of housing sought 3.1 9.3 72 Health / personal care reasons 2.4 7.4 56 Retirement 2.2 6.6 51 Quality of local schools / colleges 1.9 5.8 44 Closer /easier to commute to work 1.2 3.5 28 Total 100.0 2,315 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.4.17 The most popular reasons were nearness to family / friends (89.5%) and always lived here at 58.4%. These core sustainability factors are also significant for existing households.

9.5 Households Unable to Move to Market Housing 9.5.1 The report details in Section 8.4 that there are 9,022 who wish to move but are unable to do so for a range of reasons. Analysis shows that there are 4,302 households currently living in market housing who wish to buy in the County but cannot afford to do so because of the local house prices. 9.5.2 2,898 of these are existing owner occupiers, and 1,404 are households who wish to buy and currently live in the private rented sector. Households wishing to move but unable to do so represent an unexpressed market demand unable to be addressed whose needs should be met through intermediate housing.

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9.6 Total Demand for Market Housing in the County 9.6.1 Table 9 ‐17 below shows total demand for market housing by property type and size. Table 9 ‐17 Demand for Market Housing to 2017

Housing Flat / Supported / Semi‐ adapted for Caravan / Detached Terraced Maisonette / Bungalow Sheltered Total Detached disability mobile home Bedsit Housing needs

1‐BED 0 0 34 116 53 0 0 56 259

H 2‐BED 512 157 385 242 418 34 34 25 1,807 H/

XISTING 3‐BED 1,188 958 593 0 700 0 7 0 3,446 E 4+ BED 365 1,118 9 0 0 0 0 0 1,492

1‐BED 109 0 200 761 12 44 0 0 1,126

H 2‐BED 103 52 208 575 0 0 0 0 938

H/ 3‐BED 183 4 35 10 0 0 0 0 232

CONCEALED 4+ BED 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 1‐BED 45 0 16 222 21 0 0 0 304

H 2‐BED 302 138 505 476 607 0 4 0 2,032 IGRANT H/ 3‐BED 780 590 1,511 78 380 0 0 0 3,339 ‐M N I 4+ BED 303 1,411 288 20 180 0 0 0 2,202

TOTAL 3,890 4,447 3,784 2,500 2,371 78 45 81 17,196

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.6.2 The survey data incorporates existing, concealed and in‐migrant household demand for market housing, based on the profile of recent in‐migrants to the County over the last five years. 9.6.3 It is assumed that the in‐migrant market demand will be similar over the next five year period to 2017.

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9.7 Current and Future Demand for Market Housing 9.7.1 The recently published NPPF identifies the core Government objectives to provide a variety of high quality market housing including addressing any shortfalls that apply in market housing. Authorities are required to plan for a full range of market housing to meet the needs of the whole community, so that provision is made for family, single person, and multi‐person households. 9.7.2 Local planning authorities should identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing required in particular locations, reflecting local demand. Policies should give indications of the type or size of dwellings to be delivered to meet household demand and create sustainable inclusive and mixed communities over the longer term. 9.7.3 The major market housing demand from existing and in‐migrating households is for three bedroom properties. Table 9 ‐18 Total Demand for Market Housing by Size to 2017 Question 25 One Bed Two Bed 3 bed 4+ Bed Total Total %

Existing Households 259 1,807 3,446 1,492 7,004 40.7 Concealed Households 1,126 938 232 19 2,315 13.5 In‐Migrant Households 303 2,032 3,340 2,204 7,879 45.8 Total 1,688 4,777 7,018 3,715 17,198 100.0 Total % by size 9.8% 27.8% 40.8% 21.6% 100.0% Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 9.7.4 Demand from in‐migrating households is very significant at over 45% of total demand and is strongly focused on 3 and 4 bedroom stock. There is an overall demand of 37.6% for one and two bedroom units, higher than current stock levels. 9.7.5 Linked to the demographic forecasts both in the short and long term there is a need to bias future development to provide a higher proportion of smaller units in the market sector.

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10 FUTURE AFFORDABLE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS

10.1 Key Findings ¾ Demand for affordable housing from existing moving households to 2017 was 3,430 units. 3,348 implied for social rented and 82 units for RP shared ownership. ¾ 2,665 concealed households are looking for affordable housing. 2,361 intend to move to social rented, 115 to shared ownership accommodation and 189 to shared equity. ¾ 39% of existing households and 35.7% of concealed households moving to affordable housing plan to move within 1 year. ¾ Urban Northumberland locations were the most popular for both existing and concealed households moving within the County, most notably for Blyth. ¾ Nearness to family / friends was the most common reason for choice of location of both existing and concealed households.

10.2 Introduction 10.2.1 Determining the net shortfall or surplus of affordable housing, in order to meet existing and predicted housing need is a key part of the Housing Need Assessment. This section examines the need for affordable housing and how this is broken down by size of property (i.e. number of bedrooms) and tenure of affordable housing (i.e. intermediate and social rented housing). 10.2.2 The CLG Needs Assessment Model in Section 14 of this report sets out the final figures for housing need across the County. 10.2.3 This section is divided into elements exploring the housing needs of existing and concealed households who require affordable housing. 10.2.4 In terms of affordability as well as the standard forms of social housing mentioned in this section, Northumberland Council offer discounted market housing as well as shared ownership.

10.3 Housing Benefit and Under‐Occupancy 10.3.1 From 1 April 2013 the Government intend to introduce size criteria for working‐age Housing Benefit claimants living in the social rented sector. 10.3.2 The size criteria will be the same as for private rented sector claimants whose claims are assessed using the local housing allowance rules. 10.3.3 The maximum rent will be reduced by a national percentage rate depending on how many bedrooms the household is considered not to need. 10.3.4 A bedroom for a non‐resident carer will also be taken into account in determining the relevant size criteria where that carer provides necessary overnight care for the claimant or their partner.

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10.3.5 Social housing providers will need to take these new regulations into account when allocating housing as well as when deciding on property sizes on new developments. 10.3.6 Under‐occupancy of large family homes is already being prioritised by many housing providers. 10.3.7 The changes will heighten the need to address under‐occupancy to ensure that residents on low incomes do not fall into arrears due to reduced housing benefit being paid towards their rent.

10.4 Affordable Housing Need of Existing Households 10.4.1 The percentages in all tables in this section have been applied to the control total of 3,430 implied existing households moving within Northumberland over the next five years who require affordable housing. 10.4.2 3,348 of existing households moving needed Social rented accommodation and 82 RP shared ownership. A column showing “% all tenures” i.e. including market demand is shown as a comparison. Table 10 ‐1 When is the Accommodation Required (Existing Households) Question 19 Affordable Time Nos. implied % All Tenures Housing % Within 1 year 39.0 1,337 40.2 1 ‐ 2 years 30.7 1,055 31.5 2 ‐ 3 years 16.3 558 15.5 3 – 5 years 14.0 480 12.8 Total 100.0 3,430 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 10.4.3 The table shows that 39% of potential movers sought to do so within one year, very similar to the level for all movers (40.2%). 10.4.4 The main type of accommodation required amongst existing households moving to affordable housing was bungalow accommodation at 40.4%. 27.1% of respondents felt that they required a semi‐detached property and interest in flats/maisonettes was 12.6%. Interest in terraced houses was 9.1% and in detached properties was low at 3.9%. 10.4.5 20.0% of existing households needing affordable housing indicated that they required one bedroom, 64.5% need two bedrooms, 14.8% three bedrooms and 0.7% require four bedroom units.

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10.4.6 Analysis of the type of property required by size required in terms of number of bedrooms showed the following results. Table 10 ‐2 Type by Size Required (Existing Households) Question 20 by Question 22 One bed Two bed Three bed Four+ beds Total Type % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. Nos. Semi‐detached 0.0 0 29.7 664 54.1 273 0.0 0 937 Detached 0.0 0 3.0 67 11.7 59 100.0 11 137 Terraced 5.7 39 8.9 199 15.3 77 0.0 0 315 Flat / maisonette / 50.1 340 4.9 109 0.0 0 0.0 0 449 Bedsit Bungalow 27.7 188 48.4 1,084 18.9 95 0.0 0 1,367 Supported / Sheltered 16.5 112 5.1 113 0.0 0 0.0 0 225 Housing Total 100.0 679 100.0 2,236 100.0 504 100.0 11 3,430 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey; No data for caravan / mobile homes or housing adapted for disability 10.4.7 Demand assessed by number of bedrooms shows that 70.9% (664) of the total semi‐ detached demand (937) was for 2‐bedrooms and all demand for 4+ bedroom housing was for detached houses. 63% (199) of demand for terraced property and 79.3% (1,084) of bungalows was for 2‐bedrooms. 10.4.8 75.7% of demand for flats / maisonettes and 49.7% of the demand for supported housing was for 1 bedroom accommodation. 10.4.9 Analysis of the type of property required with type of tenure required showed the following results. Table 10 ‐3 Type Required by Required Tenure (Existing Households) Question 20 by Question 23 Social rented Shared Ownership Total

% Nos. % Nos. Nos. Semi‐detached 26.9 902 32.7 27 929 Detached 3.8 126 10.8 9 135 Terraced 9.3 313 0.0 0 313 Flat / maisonette 12.9 432 15.8 13 445 / Bedsit Bungalow 40.9 1,368 22.0 18 1,386 Supported & 6.2 207 18.7 15 222 Sheltered Housing Total 100.0 3,348 100.0 82 3,430 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey; No data for Shared Equity / caravan / mobile home or housing adapted for disability 10.4.10 40.9% existing households who need social rented accommodation need a bungalow and 26.9% a semi‐detached property.

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10.4.11 Analysis of the size of property required with type of tenure required showed the following results. Table 10 ‐4 Size Required by Required Tenure (Existing Households) Question 22 by Question 23 Social rented Shared Ownership Total

% Nos. % Nos. Nos. One Bed 19.9 665 24.4 20 685 Two Bed 64.5 2,158 64.6 53 2,211 Three Bed 15.2 509 0.0 0 509 Four + Bed 0.4 16 11.0 9 25 Total 100.0 3,348 100.0 82 3,430 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey; No data for Shared Equity 10.4.12 The majority of all affordable tenures require 2 bedroom accommodation. 10.4.13 66.3% of existing households moving to affordable housing (2,274 implied) were registered on the Northumberland Homefinder Waiting List register. 10.4.14 Existing households moving to affordable housing were asked where accommodation was required. Table 10 ‐5 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 37 areas Question 5b Location % Nos. Location % Nos. Location % Nos. 1 4.2 144 13 4.6 158 25 0.6 21 2 2.7 92 14 2.4 82 26 0.6 21 3 0.8 27 15 2.8 96 27 0.5 17 4 2.1 72 16 0.8 27 28 0.0 0 5 0.9 31 17 1.4 48 29 0.2 7 6 0.5 17 18 1.8 62 30 8.2 281 7 4.4 151 19 0.5 17 31 7.7 264 8 3.2 109 20 0.1 3 32 0.9 31 9 3.0 103 21 1.1 37 33 0.9 31 10 3.3 113 22 1.4 48 34 2.5 85 11 1.8 62 23 3.1 106 35 12.0 412 12 0.5 17 24 0.9 31 36 9.3 319 37 8.3 285 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey Table 10 ‐6 Which location do you wish to live in? (Existing Households) by 3 SHMA Areas Question 25 All tenures% Location % Responses Nos. implied (Households) North Northumberland 25.1 861 18.7 City Region Commuter 25.1 861 39.8 Urban Northumberland 49.8 1,708 41.5 Total 100.0 3,430 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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10.4.15 Interest in affordable housing amongst existing households moving was mainly for Urban Northumberland (41.5%) with the most popular location being Blyth. The other responses were even over the remaining two SHMA areas, however as with all tenures, Urban Northumberland remains the most popular locations. 10.4.16 The final question in this section asked respondents why they preferred a particular location. Nearness to family / friends was the largest single choice at 71.2%. Always lived here was the second most common choice (54.1%) followed by better quality of area at 24.5%. Table 10 ‐7 Reason for Preferred Location (Existing Households) Question 26 % % Nos. implied All tenures % Reason responses households (all choices) (households) To be near family /friends 24.7 71.2 2,227 58.5 Always lived here 18.7 54.1 1,692 44.8 Better quality of area 8.5 24.5 767 30.0 Retirement 7.7 22.3 697 22.0 Accessibility to public 7.2 20.7 649 20.1 transport Health /Support 6.7 19.4 608 10.1 personal care reasons Nearer / Better shopping / 6.3 18.3 573 19.4 leisure / entertainment Closer to commute to work 5.8 16.6 520 25.2 Able to afford local housing 4.6 13.4 418 16.3 Quality of local schools 4.3 12.3 386 17.8 New Job /Employment 3.5 10.0 314 5.7 Availability of type of housing 2.0 5.6 176 13.5 Total 100.0 9,027 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

10.5 Needs of Concealed Households Moving Within Northumberland 10.5.1 Table 8 ‐8 showed that 2,361 concealed households intend to move to Social rented housing, 115 to RP Shared ownership housing and 189 to shared equity housing. In total, 2,665 concealed households over the next 5 years require affordable housing in Northumberland. This is the control total used in the analysis for this section.

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10.5.2 A column is included in some tables for “all concealed households %”, i.e. including those needing market housing, as a comparison. Table 10 ‐8 When is the Accommodation Required (Concealed Households) Question 30 Affordable Time Nos. implied All Tenures % Housing % Within 1 year 35.7 951 31.1 1 ‐ 2 years 34.2 912 28.6 2 ‐ 3 years 19.9 530 22.6 3 – 5 years 10.2 272 17.7 Total 100.0 2,665 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 10.5.3 46% of concealed households moving to affordable housing require a flat / maisonette and 22.8% a semi‐detached property. 10.8% require a terraced property. The lowest demand was for a detached house (0.6%) and housing adapted for a disability with a response of 0.6%. 10.5.4 The highest demand in relation to the size of the accommodation was for 2‐bedroom properties at 49.7% (1,324 implied). 42.6% (1,135 implied) required a 1‐bedroom property and 7.3% (194 implied) required 3 bedrooms. There was a small demand for a 4‐bedroom property from 0.4% (11 implied). 10.5.5 Analysis of the type of property needed by the size of property needed for concealed households moving showed the following results. Table 10 ‐9 Type Needed by Size Needed (Concealed Households) Question 31a by Question 31b 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed Total Type % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. Nos. Semi‐detached 14.9 193 27.4 296 41.8 121 610 Detached 0.0 0 0.4 4 0.0 0 4 Terraced 6.8 88 12.6 136 24.1 69 293 Flat / maisonette 63.0 816 33.9 368 34.1 98 1,282 Bedsit 8.3 107 0.0 0 0.0 0 107 Bungalow 2.7 35 16.2 175 0.0 0 210 Supported Housing (inc sheltered) 0.3 4 6.3 68 0.0 0 72 Housing adapted for disability needs 0.0 0 1.2 13 0.0 0 13 Caravan / Mobile home (perm sited) 4.0 52 2.0 22 0.0 0 74 Total 100.0 1,295 100.0 1,082 100.0 288 2,665 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 10.5.6 Around 63.0% of the demand for a 1‐bedroom property and 33.9% of demand for a 2 bedroom property was for a flat / maisonette. 10.5.7 41.8% of the demand for a 3 bedroom property was for semi‐detached housing and 24.1% for a terraced property.

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Table 10 ‐10 Type Needed by Tenure Needed (Concealed Households) Question 31a by Question 29a Social rented Shared Ownership Shared Equity Total

% Nos. % Nos. % Nos. Nos. Semi‐detached 18.0 425 0.0 0 94.6 178 603 Detached 0.7 17 0.0 0 0.0 0 17 Terraced 7.2 169 96.4 111 5.4 11 291 Flat / maisonette 52.7 1,244 3.6 4 0.0 0 1,248 Bedsit 2.8 67 0.0 0 0.0 0 67 Bungalow 10.7 252 0.0 0 0.0 0 252 Supported Housing (inc sheltered) 4.2 99 0.0 0 0.0 0 99 Housing adapted for disability needs 0.7 17 0.0 0 0.0 0 17 Caravan / Mobile home (perm sited) 3.0 71 0.0 0 0.0 0 71 Total 100.0 2,361 100.0 115 100.0 189 2,665 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 10.5.8 The main interest from concealed households forming in the social rented sector was for flats / maisonettes at 52.7%; semi‐detached at 18% and bungalows at 10.7%. The majority of interest from concealed households needing shared ownership was for terraced housing and for shared equity was for semi‐detached housing.

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10.5.9 Analysis of the type of property required with type of tenure required showed the following results Table 10 ‐11 Size Needed by Tenure Needed (Concealed Households) Question 31b by Question 29a Social rented Shared Ownership Shared Equity Total

% Nos. % Nos. % Nos. Nos. One Bed 41.6 983 3.6 4 78.6 149 1,136 Two Bed 49.6 1,170 96.4 111 21.4 40 1,321 Three Bed 8.3 196 0.0 0 0.0 0 196 Four + Bed 0.5 12 0.0 0 0.0 0 12 Total 100.0 2,361 100.0 115 100.0 189 2,665 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 10.5.10 The majority of households moving to affordable housing tenures require one and two bedrooms. 10.5.11 27.4% of concealed households moving to social housing (730 implied) responded to the question on whether were registered on the Northumberland Homefinder Waiting List. Only 3.6% (26 implied) of the concealed households who wanted to move to affordable housing were registered on the list.

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10.5.12 The tables below show the results for choice of location for concealed households by the 37 sub‐areas and the 3 housing SHMA areas. Table 10 ‐12 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) Question 33 Location % Nos. Location % Nos. Location % Nos.

1 4.3 114 13 11.7 312 25 0.7 19

2 2.6 69 14 5.9 157 26 0.8 21

3 0.3 8 15 1.4 37 27 0.3 8

4 0.8 21 16 0.8 21 28 0.5 13

5 0.3 8 17 0.3 8 29 1.1 29

6 0.4 11 18 0.6 16 30 3.8 101

7 3.7 100 19 0.0 0 31 1.3 34

8 4.0 107 20 2.2 59 32 2.0 53

9 1.1 29 21 1.5 40 33 2.4 64

10 0.5 13 22 1.0 26 34 3.8 101

11 1.0 26 23 5.5 146 35 18.0 480

12 0.2 5 24 0.0 0 36 9.2 245

37 6.0 160 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey Table 10 ‐13 Which location do you wish to live in? (Concealed Households) Question 33 % Nos. All tenures Location Responses implied %

North Northumberland 18.0 480 14.5

City Region Commuter 35.5 946 40.2

Urban Northumberland 46.5 1,239 45.3

Total 100.0 2,665 100.0

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 10.5.13 The main interest for concealed households moving to affordable housing within Northumberland showed similar results as existing households moving. 10.5.14 46.5% required accommodation in Urban Northumberland, whilst demand for the City Region and North Northumberland showed higher demand from concealed households moving to affordable housing than the all tenure averages.

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Table 10 ‐14 Reason for Preferred Location (Concealed Households) Question 34 Moving to affordable housing Reason % % Nos. Implied All Tenures responses households (all choices) % Nearer family /friends 29.0 84.9 773 58.5 Always lived here 19.8 57.7 528 44.8 New job / Employment 12.2 35.6 325 5.7 Able to afford local housing 11.6 34.0 309 16.3 Accessibility to public 7.8 22.8 208 20.1 transport Better quality of area 6.3 18.3 168 30.0 Better shopping / leisure / 3.4 10.0 90 19.4 Entertainment facilities Easier to commute to work 2.6 7.5 69 25.2 Health /Support /personal 2.4 7.0 64 10.1 care reasons Retirement 2.2 6.5 59 22.0 Quality of local schools / 1.7 4.9 45 17.8 colleges Greater availability of type 1.0 3.0 27 13.5 of housing sought Total 100.0 2,665 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 10.5.15 Core sustainability factors such as near family and friends and always lived in the area, employment and access to public transport allow people to live and work in the same area. Reducing travel time and being near family members to provide support creates a more sustainable community. 10.5.16 The main reason for concealed households moving to their choice of location was to be near family /friends (84.9%, 773 implied), followed by always lived here at 57.7%.

10.6 Future Size of Affordable Housing 10.6.1 Stock balance, turnover and waiting list demand analysis are vital to identify the gaps in the stock and inform the proportions by type and size required in future to address current and future need. 10.6.2 Affordable housing should mainly be in locations with good public transport, accessibility to town centres, employment destinations and other key services. 10.6.3 The following table provides a detailed analysis of the social stock the levels of registered need and actual supply from turnover by bedroom size. 10.6.4 To provide a clear justification for the balance of property sizes in the Local Development Documents and housing delivery strategy, need and supply of the council rented stock has been analysed. 10.6.5 The ratio of waiting list demand to supply is the number of years it would take for the waiting list for individual property sizes to be met through the turnover of the existing stock.

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10.6.6 This also makes the extreme assumption that there was no future need other than the current backlog, which clearly will not be the case. Table 10 ‐15 Social Stock, Waiting List Need and Social Turnover

Demand Total Waiting List Social Stock Stock Size vs. Stock (HSSA) Turnover Supply Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Years 1‐bedroom 7,532 27.8 4,559 39.1 569 36.3 8.0 :1 2‐bedrooms 10,399 38.5 5,456 46.8 591 37.7 9.2 :1 3‐bedrooms 8,676 32.1 1,209 10.4 401 25.6 3.0 :1 4+ bedrooms 438 1.6 427 3.7 7 0.4 61.0 :1 Total 27,045 100.0 11,651 100.0 1,568 100.0 7.4 :1 Source: CORE and Council data 10.6.7 In the County, even if no new need arose, it would take:‐ ¾ 8 years to meet the requirements for 1‐bedroom properties; ¾ Over 9 years to address the 2‐bedroom requirement; ¾ 3 years to address the 3‐bedroom stock requirement; ¾ 61 years to meet the need for larger 4+ bedroom family units.

10.7 Small Units 10.7.1 Generally, 74% of stock turnover is from 1 and 2 bedroom units, lower than the waiting list need level of 85.9%. 10.7.2 Although these are significantly the highest need in terms of unit numbers, a number of factors need to be considered in determining targets by size which clearly also influence property type. 10.7.3 Small units turn over more regularly in the existing stock than family units. 10.7.4 The waiting list, in particular for one bedroom properties, contains a large number of households who have very low priority and older households registering for sheltered housing as insurance for a future potential need. 10.7.5 These factors are important in judging future delivery to meet priorities rather than arithmetic scale of recorded need. The important factor is to meet priority needs, but there is still a requirement for 1 and 2‐bedroom units to meet the needs of young, single, homeless households in the County. 10.7.6 Almost a third of the stock is 3 bedroom family units but they provide only 25.6% of all re‐let supply. Four bedroom units are the smallest in terms of numbers (438), but Waiting List need is virtually 100% of the total stock. 10.7.7 These households must be over‐crowded in their current housing and are therefore a priority need group. With only 7 units becoming available last year their needs are the most difficult to resolve.

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10.7.8 In view of the current stock balance, the scale of likely annual new provision and the requirement to address priority household needs, a level of 65% of future delivery in the affordable rented sector should be one and two bedroom units, lower than current need levels of 85.9%. 10.7.9 However, because of the demand for 2‐bedroom units (as opposed to need), provision should be mainly 2‐bedroom units. Grant funding through the HCA recognises the issue of need versus demand for 1‐bedroom units. Generally funding is available for 2‐bedroom units, recognising the demand and flexibility of this size of accommodation.

10.8 Family sized Units 10.8.1 Given the limited scale of new affordable units relative to need, the balance of 57 units a year could be 3 and 4 bedroom units. There will be an increasing impact on the scale of under‐occupation of three bedroom properties from demographic change. 10.8.2 Three bedroom units are 32.1% of the social stock but are only 25.6% of re‐lets. However, as is highlighted in Section 5.3.9, there are estimated to be around 3,350 social rented properties which are under‐occupied by two or more bedrooms. 10.8.3 This is over 40% of all the three bedroom social rented properties in the County. 10.8.4 In view of the increasing older population, it is now even more important to achieve a better flow of the under‐occupied, family sized social rented stock as a means to help address the scale of need for family units. 10.8.5 Achieving a better flow of family units should also have a cascade effect, increasing turnover of all smaller unit sizes as households are able to transfer to larger units to meet their need. In effect up to four household moves could result from one new older persons unit. 10.8.6 The relatively extreme problem of access to four bedroom stock should be a priority as these larger family households are almost certain to be currently living in over‐ crowded conditions. Most of the new unit delivery of family units of 35% should be four bedrooms.

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11 HOUSING NEEDS OF DISABLED PEOPLE

11.1 Key Findings ¾ 25.7% (34,379 implied) households included a member with a disability. ¾ 50.5% of all disabled household members were over the age of 65. ¾ 54% of disabled households have a walking difficulty. ¾ 16.5% (3,085 implied) households stated they had outstanding support needs. ¾ 11% of properties (14,540 implied) had been adapted. The survey found some mismatch between wheelchair adapted and properties where people with a wheelchair actually live.

11.2 Needs of Disabled People 11.2.1 Issues relating to households with one or more members affected by a disability or long‐term illness were addressed through a series of questions. This section draws together the findings from these questions. 11.2.2 25.7% of households in the County contain somebody with a disability, suggesting 34,379 households in Northumberland were affected in some way. This is a slightly higher level to the average found in other DCA surveys (around 20%) but consistent with other former mining communities. 11.2.3 Assessment of the UK average for the proportion of households affected is difficult, both because of the impact of multiple disability and the tendency to express statistics in terms of population rather than households. The Department for Work and Pensions Family Resources Survey 2006 suggests as many as 10 million disabled people in the UK ‐ around 19.7% of the population. 11.2.4 42.9% of households containing someone with a disability stated that they had a support need (17,889 implied households). 83.5% of support needs are being met but 3,085 households still have an unmet support need. 11.2.5 The comparative figures for the various tenures were as per Table 11 ‐1 below. The level in the social rented sector (20.2%) was slightly higher than the proportion of total stock represented by social rented accommodation (19.4%). Table 11 ‐1 Disability by Tenure Question 1 by Question 9 Sample Tenure Tenure of those with Nos. Implied Tenure % disability % (Disability) Owner occupied with mortgage 39.1 27.7 9,524 Owner occupied without mortgage 28.9 25.8 8,863 Private rented 10.3 10.2 3,523 Social rented 20.2 34.2 11,739 Shared ownership* 0.1 0.0 9 Tied to employment / living rent free* 1.4 2.1 721 Total 100.0 100.0 34,379 *Low level of data Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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11.2.6 When asked how many members of the household had a disability, 34,177 responses were received. 79.4% of cases said only one household member had a disability and 20.6% said two members had a disability. The age profile and nature of disability data suggest slightly higher totals than this (42,473 implied). 11.2.7 42,473 responses were received to the age of disabled members. Data for the age groups of all disabled household members is shown in the table below. Table 11 ‐2 Age of Disabled Household Members Question 10b Age % Nos. Implied 0‐10 2.6 1,117 11‐15 2.4 1,004 16‐24 2.8 1,205 25‐34 4.0 1,712 35‐49 10.9 4,629 50‐64 26.8 11,400 65‐79 33.1 14,056 80+ 17.4 7,351 Total 100.0 42,474 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Survey 11.2.8 50.5% of all disabled household members were over the age of 65 including 17.4% over 80; 22.7% were aged under 49 years. 11.2.9 The next table shows the nature of the disability of members of the household. Responses were received to a multiple response question, giving an average of 1.3 responses. Table 11 ‐3 Nature of Disability Question 10c Nos. implied Disability % responses % households (all choices) Walking Difficulty 31.4 54.0 22,651 (not wheelchair) Asthmatic / respiratory problem 13.5 23.3 9,764 Diabetes 12.8 22.1 9,268 Other 10.8 18.6 7,808 Visual / hearing impairment 8.0 13.6 5,730 Mental health problems 6.6 11.3 4,755 Outdoor wheelchair user 5.8 10.0 4,175 Learning disability 3.3 5.7 2,394 Obesity 2.7 4.6 1,920 Dementia / memory loss 2.6 4.5 1,895 Indoor wheelchair user 1.6 2.8 1,156 Drug & Alcohol misuse 0.9 1.4 593 Total 100.0 72,109 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Survey 11.2.10 By far the largest group of people were those with a walking difficulty (54%). 23.3% had an asthmatic / respiratory problem; 22.1% have diabetes and 17% of households contained someone who had a learning disability and mental health problem.

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11.2.11 Further data analysis showed that 42.3% (332 of the 784 at Table 11 ‐6 below) of properties which had been adapted contained people using a wheelchair. This is a relatively higher proportion compared with DCA survey experience (around 32.0%) suggesting some mismatch between houses adapted and those where wheelchair users lived. 11.2.12 By extension, it would appear that only 332 of the 1,156 wheelchair users have adaptation and therefore 71.2% (824 households implied) do not live in suitably adapted premises. 11.2.13 70.7% (23,109) of those with a disability stated that their health had deteriorated in the last 2 years. A cross tabulation of this by age showed the majority of those whose health had deteriorated were over 65 years (54.9%) and a further 30% were aged 50‐64 years. Only 15.6% were under the age of 60 years.

11.3 Support Needs 11.3.1 41,706 implied household members responded to the question on need for care or support. 42.9% indicated a need for care or support (17,889 implied). 11.3.2 83.4% of those with a care or support need felt they were getting enough support, the data implying 16.6% (3,085 implied) with an outstanding support need. 11.3.3 Those with an outstanding care or support need were asked to state in a multiple choice question what types of support they felt they needed. 9,899 choices were given in total. 11.3.4 A wide range of care and support needs were identified, with the highest being ‘Arranging social contact’ and ‘access to health services’ at 26.6%. Claiming welfare benefit at 23.6% and ‘having someone to act on your behalf’ were also prominent at 19.6%. ‘Help with looking after the home’ (typically the highest response from DCA surveys was ranked 5th at 19.3%). The full results can be found in the table below. Table 11 ‐4 Outstanding Support Needs (Question 10g) Nos. implied Support Need % responses % households (all choices) Claiming welfare benefit / managing finances 16.7 23.6 1,660 Someone to act on your behalf 10.6 19.6 1,049 Arranging social contact / activities 17.0 26.6 1,686 Personal safety & security 12.1 12.4 1,195 Accessing Health services 14.6 26.6 1,449 Looking after your home 19.3 19.3 1,898 Accessing training / employment 6.0 5.3 598 Help with memory loss / dementia 3.7 5.2 364 Total 100.0 9,899 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Survey 11.3.5 Those who currently receive sufficient care and support services were asked who (formal or informal) provided their support. In 78.6% of cases (13,099 implied) support was provided informally by family / neighbour / friend. In 21.4% of cases (3,567 implied cases), support was provided formally by social services / a voluntary body.

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11.4 Adaptation 11.4.1 Three questions sought information from all households in Northumberland on the degree to which the home had been built or adapted to meet the needs of disabled persons. 11.4.2 11% of all properties (14,540 implied) had been adapted, equal to the level found in the other DCA surveys carried out (around 11%). The split by tenure is set out in the table below. Table 11 ‐5 Adaptations by Tenure Question 12 by Question 1 Tenure % Nos. implied Owner occupied with mortgage 27.9 9,476 Owner occupied no mortgage 25.3 8,580 Social Rented 34.6 11,739 Private rented 10.2 3,463 Living Rent Free 1.7 591 Tied to your employment* 0.3 90 Shared Ownership* 0.0 9 Total 100.0 33,948 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Survey * ‐ low sample 11.4.3 The highest levels of adaptation were found in the social rented sector with 34.6%; 27.9% of owner occupied with mortgage properties have been adapted. Adaptation in the private rented sector was 10.2%. Table 11 ‐6 Types of Adaptations Provided / Needed to Current Home Question 12 and Question 13 Provided Needed Adaptations % Nos. implied Nos. implied % households households (all choices) (all choices) Stepped access shower 96.4 32,725 15.5 2,105 Ground Floor Toilet 18.2 6,189 21.6 2,941 Level access shower 13.1 4,459 30.7 4,180 Bath / Shower room & 10.4 3,521 10.4 1,415 bedroom downstairs Battery operated bath lift 6.5 2,197 8.1 1,098 Ramp / Step lift 4.7 1,587 16.3 2,219 Adaptation to use a 2.3 784 5.8 788 wheelchair indoors Vertical lift 1.1 386 1.1 146 Stairlift 0.0 0 27.5 3,737 Other n/a 9.2 1,253 Total 51,848 19,882 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Survey 11.4.4 75.9% had adaptations / aids to bathrooms; 4.7% had access to property adaptations and 1.1% had a stair / vertical lift. 18.2% a ground floor toilet and 2.3% had adaptations to accommodate a wheelchair indoors. 11.4.5 Most of the main adaptations referred to as provided, featured less prominently in the list of adaptations still needed. Ground floor toilet, access to property adaptations and stair lifts had a more significant need than provided.

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11.4.6 Wheelchair adaptations at 2.3% (784 implied) were lower than the average level found in DCA surveys (around 15%). The data taken in conjunction with 11.2.11 above suggests that 452 wheelchair adapted premises are no longer occupied by wheelchair users. 11.4.7 The Council should maintain a register of social rented properties with adaptations in the County so that the best use can be made of the existing housing stock when vacancies occur. 11.4.8 Adaptations include level access showers, through‐floor lifts and ground floor extensions. The list will enable adapted properties to be clearly advertised to ensure that priority can be given to people who need specific adaptations.

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12 HOUSING NEEDS OF OLDER PEOPLE

12.1 Key Findings ¾ The main type of housing occupied by older people is semi‐detached houses (27.1%), followed by bungalow (20.1%). ¾ The main tenure is owner occupied no mortgage at 52.9%. ¾ The size of property currently occupied by older people is mainly 3 bedroom accommodation (39.8%). ¾ Older people planning a move within the County would prefer to move to owner occupied accommodation (53.9%). Their preferred type would be a bungalow (53.3%) and they would prefer 2 bedrooms (49.8%). ¾ 69.2% of respondents aged over 65 indicated equity ownership of over £100,000 and 27.5% stated they had savings over £30,000. ¾ Demand for supported accommodation (other than sheltered) is predominantly for independent accommodation with visiting support. ¾ There is a combined requirement to 2017 of 8,751 units of sheltered accommodation for existing older households and those who may in‐migrate to be near family. 5,959 are in the affordable sector and 2,792 in the private sector. ¾ There was a level of need expressed for 2,409 extra care units from existing households (178) and older people moving into the County (2,231) to 2017.

12.2 Housing Needs of Older People 12.2.1 9,118 implied households indicated that they had older relatives who may need to move to Northumberland in the next five years. 9,118 implied households responded, a total of 20,899 responses, an average of 2.3 choices per household. Table 12 ‐1 Accommodation Required by Older Relatives in Next 5 Years Question 14b % responses % Households Nos. implied Live with respondent 6.7 15.1 1,394 (existing home adequate) Live with respondent 11.5 26.0 2,398 (need extension / adaptation) Private sheltered housing 12.0 27.1 2,500 Council sheltered housing 13.2 29.9 2,762 RP sheltered housing 10.9 24.6 2,272 Extra Care housing 10.6 24.2 2,231 Residential care / nursing home 15.1 34.1 3,148 Owner occupied housing 8.6 19.5 1,798 Private rented housing 1.8 4.4 407 Shared ownership 0.7 1.6 144 RP General Property 3.6 8.1 745 Council General Property 5.3 11.9 1,100 Total 100.0 20,899 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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12.2.2 Demand for this group was predicted by the children of older people and, as would be expected, it shows a different pattern to that normally seen among older respondents in DCA surveys. 12.2.3 The following graphs show the tenure, type and size of accommodation currently occupied by the 65+ age group. Figure 12 ‐1 Type of General Stock Occupied by Older People ‐ County‐wide (%) Q2 x Q16da (65+)

Semi‐Detached 27.1%

Terraced 18.2%

Flat / maisonette 11.7% 29.1% Bungalow

Detached 13.7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.2.4 The main property type occupied by older households was bungalow accommodation at 29.1% followed by 27.1% of households living in a semi‐detached. 12.2.5 The following graph breaks this down further by the 3 SHMA areas. Figure 12 ‐2 Type of General Stock Occupied by Older People at SHMA Area (%) Q2 x Q16da (65+)

Urban Northumberland

City Region Commuter

North Northumberland

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Terraced Semi‐Detached Detached Flat / maisonette Bedsit Bungalow

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Figure 12 ‐3 Tenure of General Stock Occupied by Older People – County‐wide (%) Q1 x Q16da (65+)

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.2.6 The main tenure type occupied by older households was owner occupied (no mortgage) at 52.9% as would be expected amongst the older population. 12.2.7 Nationally it is acknowledged that older people on fixed incomes may have difficulty maintaining their homes and gardens. 12.2.8 This may be an issue in Northumberland due to the properties occupied by older people and also the high number of owner occupied (no mortgage) properties. 12.2.9 The following graph breaks down main tenure type occupied by older households by the 3 SHMA areas. Figure 12 ‐4 Tenure of General Stock Occupied by Older People – SHMA Area (%) Q1 x Q16da (65+)

12.2.10 The main tenure type occupied by older households in the 3 SHMA areas was owner occupied accommodation. There are higher levels of social stock in Urban Northumberland than other areas and higher levels of older households living in private rent in North Northumberland compared to the other SHMA areas.

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Figure 12 ‐5 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People – County‐wide Q3 x Q16da (65+)

Bedsit 0.6%

1 bedroom 14.6%

2 bedrooms 31.3%

3 bedrooms 39.8%

4 bedrooms 11.2%

5+ bedrooms 2.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.2.11 The largest proportion of older households (39.8%) lives in 3‐bedroom properties. The following chart breaks down further by SHMA area. Figure 12 ‐6 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People – SHMA Area Q3 x Q16da (65+)

Urban Northumberland Five or more Four City Region Three Commuter Two One North Bedsit Northumberland

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

12.2.12 The SHMA area breakdown follows similar levels to the County‐wide figures, with the majority living in three bedroom accommodation.

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12.3 The Future Needs of Older People 12.3.1 Existing households aged 65+ and planning a move within the County within the next 5 years were asked a series of questions about their future housing requirements. Figure 12 ‐7 Type of Accommodation Required by Older People Q17da (65+) x Q20

Housing Adapted for disability 2.7% Bungalow 53.3% Supported Housing 13.4% Flat / maisonette 1.9% Detached 4.6% Semi‐Detached 7.3% Terraced 15.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.3.2 As would be expected amongst an older age group with increasing mobility issues, the majority require bungalow accommodation. There was also a fairly high demand stated for supported housing. Figure 12 ‐8 Tenure Required by Moving Households Aged 65+ Q16da (65+) x Q23

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey No data for Shared Equity 12.3.3 The highest demand was for owner occupation at 53.9% (923 implied). We also ran a cross‐tabulation of the above data to show the preference of house type by tenure for those households aged 65 and over. The results can be seen in the table below.

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Table 12 ‐2 Type by Tenure for Households aged 65+ Q16da (65+) x Q20 x Q23 Owner RP Shared Shared Private Rent Social Rent Total Occupied Ownership Equity Detached House 88.8 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.0 100.0 Semi‐detached House 65.8 19.9 14.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 Bungalow 43.7 1.9 54.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 Terraced House 90.8 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Flat / maisonette 76.1 0.0 23.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 Housing Adapted for disability 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Supported / Sheltered Housing 13.0 8.9 71.6 6.5 0.0 100.0 Caravan / Mobile Home / Houseboat 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey No data for Bedsit 12.3.4 The majority of households aged over 65 who preferred to live in detached and semi‐detached accommodation also preferred owner occupation. 12.3.5 54.4% of those who preferred to live in a bungalow and 71.6% of those who preferred to live in supported / sheltered housing would prefer social rented accommodation. 12.3.6 The number of bedrooms needed for those households expressing a requirement for a bungalow were 15% one bedroom, 65% two and 20% three bedrooms.

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Figure 12 ‐9 Property Size Required by Existing Moving Households (65+) Q16da (65+) x Q23

1 bedroom 16.3%

2 bedrooms 49.8%

3 bedrooms 32.5%

4 bedrooms 1.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.3.7 The size requirements of existing households who were planning a move revealed that almost half required 2‐bedroom accommodation (49.8%).

12.4 Savings / Equity of Older Households 12.4.1 The percentage breakdown of savings for households aged over 65+ years across the five main tenures was as follows:‐ Table 12 ‐3 Savings by Tenure Q1 x 17a (Q16da 65+) Owner Occupied Owner Occupied Private Social Savings (with mortgage) (no mortgage) Rent Rented No Savings 14.6 4.6 28.0 39.4 Under £5,000 29.7 14.9 33.2 31.9 £5,000 ‐ £10,000 10.2 12.4 10.3 15.7 £10,001 ‐ £15,000 11.0 6.5 3.3 6.5 £15,001 ‐ £20,000 9.2 7.1 4.1 0.7 £20,001 ‐ £30,000 5.0 10.2 3.4 3.2 Above £30,000 20.3 44.3 17.7 2.6 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.4.2 Generally, the breakdown produced the results which might be expected with 44.3% of those in owner occupation (no mortgage) having savings above £30,000. A good proportion of retired owner occupied households will have some capital to support their housing and care needs. 12.4.3 17.7% of households living in the private rented sector had savings over £30,000 in comparison to those in Social rented accommodation at 2.6%. 12.4.4 28% of households living in the private rented sector had no savings, in comparison to those in Social rented accommodation at 39.4%.

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12.4.5 Cross tabulation of the data by 65+ households moving showed:‐ ¾ 92.4% of those wanting to move to owner occupation had over £30,000 in savings. ¾ Nearly half of movers requiring private had less than £10,000 in savings. ¾ 87.0% of those wanting to move to Social rent had less than £10,000 in savings. 12.4.6 The next table relates to the level of equity owner occupiers aged over 65 had in their home. Table 12 ‐4 Level of Equity in Present Accommodation Question 17b (Q16da 65+) Level of Equity % Cum. % Negative Equity 2.0 2.0 Below ‐ £10,000 1.9 3.9 £10,000 ‐ £25,000 2.2 6.1 £25,001 ‐ £50,000 3.6 9.7 £50,001 ‐ £75,000 6.7 16.4 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 14.4 30.8 £100,001 ‐ £150,000 21.9 52.7 Above £150,000 47.3 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.4.7 69.2% of respondents indicated equity ownership of over £100,000. Cross‐tabulation indicated that 85.2% of owner occupiers without a mortgage had an equity holding of over £150,000 as compared with 14.2% of owner occupiers with a mortgage. Overall only a small proportion (2%) was in negative equity.

12.5 Supported Accommodation 12.5.1 Existing households moving were asked if they were interested in supported housing and what type of supported housing they required, in the next five years to 2017. 1,302 implied households responded, giving a total of 1,926 responses, an average of 1.5 choices per household. Table 12 ‐5 Type of Supported Accommodation Required Question 21 % households Nos. implied Social Sheltered Housing 48.0 925 Independent accommodation with visiting support 34.4 448 Private Sheltered Housing 22.4 292 Extra Care Housing 13.6 178 Independent accommodation with live‐in carer 4.2 55 Residential Nursing / Care Home 2.1 28 Total 1,926 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 12.5.2 Over the next five years, demand for supported housing (other than sheltered accommodation) is predominantly for independent accommodation (with visiting support). 12.5.3 72.5% of the people requiring this type of supported accommodation had a walking difficulty and 27.5% were in a wheelchair. All were aged between 65 and 79 years.

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12.5.4 86.3% of the independent accommodation requirement (with visiting support) was for 2 bedrooms. 12.5.5 The majority of the requirement for Social Provider sheltered housing was for 2‐ bedrooms at 69.1%. 86.8% of demand for private sheltered housing was for 2 bedroom properties.

12.6 Population Growth and Housing Needs of 75+ Age Group 12.6.1 The demographic data shows that the issues which will have to be addressed are happening now and will have an impact in both the market and social housing sectors. 12.6.2 In general terms, care and support needs increase with age. However, more people are staying in their properties longer with support and care being supplied by external agents in their home. 12.6.3 Although this may be the case some older people cannot manage in their existing property and will need to access some kind of higher level supported housing. As shown in Table 4 ‐5 the older population has the highest population growth rate in the County and the Council will need to rconside the housing needs of this age group. 12.6.4 As well as DCA’s Primary Housing Needs Survey, secondary information from ‘Caring for an Ageing Population in the South East, Laing & Buisson 2008’ has been used when considering the future housing needs of older persons. 12.6.5 The number of older people remaining in their own homes with incoming support decreases for those over the age of 75 years. 12.6.6 Laing & Buisson developed its age standardised demand (ASD) formula for care home places using the correlation between age and disability and from this determined: ¾ “less than one percent of people aged 65 to 74 are in a care home for reasons of frailty, dementia, sensory impairment or physical disability; ¾ for the next age group, 75 to 84, this jumps five‐fold to more than four percent; ¾ at over 16 percent the very old, that is people aged 85 and over” 12.6.7 The table below shows the ONS projected population of older people in Northumberland over the next 24 years and by taking a percentage of this number what the potential need will be for supported housing. 12.6.8 Even if we allow for just 2.5% of the older population needing some kind of supported housing in the next five years there is a need for 592 units for the 75 to 84 age group and 245 for those over the age of 85.

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12.6.9 We have also shown the need using 4% and 16% as outlined in Laing & Buisson ASD formula. Table 12 ‐6 Projected Housing Need of 75+ Year Olds

2016 2021 2026 2033 75‐84 Projected Population 23,700 27,700 33,900 35,600

Supported Housing Need Based on: 592 692 848 890 2.5% of 75 – 84 age group population 4% of 75 – 84 age group population 948 1,108 1,356 1,424 2016 2021 2026 2033 85+ Projected Population 9,800 12,000 14,900 21,400 Supported Housing Need Based on: 245 300 373 535 2.5% of 85+ age group population 4% of 85+ age group population 392 480 596 856 16% of 85+ age group population 1,568 1,920 2,384 3,424

12.6.10 Even allowing for existing higher level supported housing the turnover will not meet this demand. 12.6.11 The scale of under‐occupation is very high representing around 56,700 households in the County with around 3,350 of these occupied in the social rented sector. By addressing this need in policy and development terms this will help the flow of family homes as well as freeing up lower level supported housing in both market and social housing.

12.7 Sheltered Housing Demand 12.7.1 DCA survey experience shows that older people seek to remain in their own homes and prefer to receive support at home. In contrast, the children of older parents tend to predict the need for supported housing. A separate question is therefore asked to identify potential in‐migration. The question did not specify that the relative was currently outside the County and therefore potentially may have double counted some existing households already resident in the County. The ‘in‐migrant’ figures should therefore be treated with some caution but the findings are not different to those found in all DCA Surveys nationwide. 12.7.2 The greatest demand from the children of older parents was for residential care / nursing home at 34.1%, followed by Council sheltered housing 29.9%, private sheltered at 27.1% and Registered Provider sheltered at 24.6%. 12.7.3 15.1% (1,394 households implied) indicated that their relative could live with them and their home was adequate with a further 26% (2,398 implied) living with the respondent but needing extension or adaptation. 12.7.4 The sheltered housing needs of older people were captured within the question for all movers within Northumberland on supported housing. The combined requirement for sheltered housing in both sectors from existing households currently living in Northumberland and in‐migrating parents / relatives is shown in the table below.

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Table 12 ‐7 Sheltered Housing Demand to 2017 Private Market Affordable Sector All Sectors Existing Households 292 925 1,217 In‐migrant Households 2,500 5,034 7,534 Total 2,792 5,959 8,751 N.B. Figures taken from Table 12 ‐5 and Table 12 ‐1 12.7.5 There was a higher level of demand for accommodation for older people moving into Northumberland than the need from existing households. As discussed in 12.7.1 above generally, the forecast is being made by their children who assist in the moving process. 12.7.6 Conversely, the indigenous older population prefer to continue in the area / surroundings they know and within their own home as long as possible and often will not acknowledge or predict the need to move. 12.7.7 In total, the data suggests a combined requirement for sheltered accommodation from older people currently living in Northumberland (1,217 households) and those who may in‐migrate to be beside their family (7,534 households) of 8,751 units, 5,959 in the affordable sector and 2,792 in the private sector to 2017. 12.7.8 The property size stated as required by existing households moving within the County is 60% two bedrooms and 40% one bedroom in the social sector and all one bedroom properties in the owner occupied sector. However, the property size required by in‐migrating households is not available and the proportions required by existing households can only be used as a general guide. 12.7.9 Some of this requirement will be addressed by flow of the existing sheltered stock, but acceptability of existing stock to meet today’s standards will need to be assessed in calculating the scale of new delivery.

12.8 Extra Care Accommodation 12.8.1 Extra Care accommodation is housing which offers self‐contained accommodation together with communal facilities and where care and support services are provided from a team based on site. 12.8.2 Need expressed for extra care accommodation came from both older people moving into Northumberland and existing households. The level of need expressed for extra care accommodation by relatives of older people in‐migrating (see 12.7.1) was 2,231 units and 178 from existing households, a total of 2,409 households to 2017. 12.8.3 The issue of potential delivery through shared equity also applies to the extra care sector. Although we do not have information on the current tenure of in‐migrating parents it would be reasonable to conclude that the majority would be owner‐ occupiers with no mortgage. 12.8.4 This sector of the older persons housing market is relatively new and the growth forecast in the population projections over the next decade to 2021 of those aged 75+ years may well increase the need for this type of accommodation; demand may also increase as understanding of this sector of supported housing increases.

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12.9 Making Best use of the Existing Stock 12.9.1 Making the best use of the existing stock is a core Government objective and is a key aspect of sustainable development. The significant under‐occupation of existing housing stock in both sectors is a key element in future strategy to provide a more balanced stock to meet the requirements of future households. 12.9.2 New development should meet gaps in the current stock and create secondary gains in improving stock flow in both sectors. 12.9.3 Almost 65% of households within the owner occupied no mortgage sector have two or more spare bedrooms, above the level of around 61% found in recent DCA surveys. This sector will include a high proportion of older households, 12.9.4 Additionally almost half of current owner‐occupier households with a mortgage also under‐occupy and as these households grow older, the scale of social stock under‐ occupation will increase year on year if the existing stock turnover is not improved.

12.10 Housing and Planning Strategy 12.10.1 The policy requirement for the future to make best use of the housing stock must involve addressing under‐occupation to assist in improving the rate of turnover of family units, and provide specialist accommodation to meet the changing requirements of the increasing older population.

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13 BLACK AND MINORITY ETHNIC NEEDS

13.1 Key Findings ¾ 85 Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) survey respondents provide statistical validity of + 10.85%. This sample represents 2,025 implied households which have been drawn from the survey and analysed separately to give an insight into the specific housing needs of BME households in Northumberland. ¾ There are fewer BME households with no earnings (5.6%) than the whole population (7.0%). ¾ 47.1% of BME households who responded to the survey are living in detached houses. Only 5.6% live in flat / maisonette. ¾ 48.5% of those BME households who said their home was inadequate cited that it needed improvement / repairs. ¾ 21.2% of BME households had a member with a disability. 70.4% had a walking difficulty. ¾ 100.0% of BME households, who wished to move but stated an inability to do so, specified this was because they were unable to afford to buy a home. ¾ 60.3% of BME households moving out of Northumberland said it was due to family reasons. ¾ 72.4% of existing BME households moving within the County in the next three years stated they required a bungalow. 81.3% required a 2 bedroom property and 77.5% stated Social rent as their preferred tenure. ¾ 103 concealed BME households were found to be forming within the County over the next three years. 62.0% said they could realistically afford a flat / maisonette; 62.5% require a two bedroom property and 55.6% need Social rented accommodation.

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13.2 Introduction 13.2.1 This section looks at the specific housing needs of BME households living in Northumberland. As well as data on future housing needs and preferences this section also includes an overview of the current housing circumstances of the group. 13.2.2 In the case of ethnic origin, the breakdown provided in Table 13 ‐1 below refers to the ethnicity of the household in which the respondent lives. This provides numerical and percentage breakdown of all ethnic groups who responded to the postal survey. Table 13 ‐1 shows that 132,892 (98.6%) of households ethnicity was White British. 13.2.3 The remaining 2,025 (1.4%) household’s are in the other ethnic origin categories, albeit 0.7% (almost half of this group) is categorised as ‘other white’. 2011 Census (Tables KS201EW) figures are provided as an illustration. Table 13 ‐1 Ethnic Origin Question 16b Local Area Ethnic Origin % Nos. implied Census 2011* British 98.6 132,892 97.3 White Irish 0.1 185 0.3 Other White 0.7 964 0.9 White & Black Caribbean 0.1 154 0.2 White & Black African 0.0 33 0.1 Mixed White & Asian 0.1 106 0.2 Other Dual Heritage 0.1 72 0.1 Indian 0.1 79 0.3 Asian or Asian Pakistani 0.0 50 0.1 British Bangladeshi 0.0 19 0.1 Other Asian Background 0.0 59 0.2 Caribbean 0.1 67 0.0 Black or Black African 0.0 56 0.1 British Other Black Background 0.0 0 0.0 Chinese *Chinese 0.0 0 Arab *Arab 0.0 0 Gypsy and 0.1 *Gypsy or Irish Traveller 0.0 0 Traveller Any other *Any other 0.1 100 Total 100.0 134,836 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey Source: © Crown Copyright (Census) * Census does not differentiate by this category

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13.2.4 85 Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) respondents provide statistical validity of +/‐ 10.85%. This sample represents 2,025 implied households which have been drawn from the survey and analysed separately to give an insight into the specific housing needs of BME households in Northumberland. 13.2.5 The BME responders include categories of ‘White Irish’ and ‘White Other’ (in line with the Census definition) which represents 1,149 (1.0%) of BME implied households.

13.3 Incomes 13.3.1 The incomes of BME households are detailed in the table below. The incomes of all households are listed also as a comparison. Table 13 ‐2 Gross Annual Income of BME Households Question 17c BME BME All households Annual income % Cumulative % cumulative %

None 5.6 5.6 7.0

Below £10,000 16.5 22.1 21.4

£10,000 ‐ £25,000 24.1 46.2 54.1

£25,001 ‐ £35,000 11.6 57.8 68.7

£35,001 ‐ £45,000 7.0 64.8 80.1

£45,001 ‐ £60,000 22.2 87.0 89.6

£60,001 ‐ £75,000 2.2 89.2 94.0

£75,001 ‐ £100,000 2.6 91.8 97.1

Above £100,000 8.2 100.0 100.0 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 13.3.2 The data shows that there are fewer BME households with no earnings (5.6%) than the whole population (7.0%).

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13.4 Current Housing 13.4.1 It should be noted that in all cross‐tabulations, data is included only where the respondent has answered each element (question) involved; hence there may be some small discrepancies when compared with the tables relating to a single data source. Table 13 ‐3 Property Type by Number of Bedrooms Question 2 by Question 3

Bedsit 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4‐bed 5+ bed Total Type Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % %

Detached 0 0.0 0 0.0 61 6.4 460 48.4 261 27.4 170 17.8 100.0

Semi‐detached 0 0.0 4 0.8 222 47.1 215 45.5 6 1.3 25 5.3 100.0

Terraced 0 0.0 81 16.8 70 14.6 305 63.4 25 5.2 0 0.0 100.0

Flat / Maisonette / 13 11.5 39 34.5 41 36.3 0 0.0 0 0.0 20 17.7 100.0 Bedsit

Houseboat / Caravan / 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 100.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 100.0 Mobile home

Total 13 124 400 980 292 215 2,024 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 13.4.2 In terms of type of property occupied by BME households, the responses were skewed towards detached properties (47.1%). Only 5.6% lived in a flat / maisonette. 13.4.3 48.4% of those in detached accommodation had 3 bedrooms and 47.1% of those in semi‐detached accommodation had 2 bedrooms. 13.4.4 77.3% of BME respondents indicated that their homes were adequate. 22.7% of BME households (416 implied) indicated their home was inadequate, higher than the average percentage in DCA survey experience (typically below 20%). 13.4.5 However when respondents were asked to answer a question on why they felt their home was inadequate, 432 BME households actually answered the question.

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13.4.6 Respondents were asked to indicate the reasons why the accommodation was not suitable, and these are outlined in Table 13 ‐4 below. 990 respondents answered the question giving an average of 2.3 choices. Table 13 ‐4 Inadequacy of Present Accommodation Question 8a BME Reasons Nos. All households (%) households (%) Needs repair / improvement 48.5 210 38.5 Too costly to heat 44.5 192 25.9 No heating / insufficient heating 27.4 119 12.0 Insufficient number of bedrooms 26.6 115 26.9 Too small 25.9 112 35.8 Too large 19.8 86 13.6 Unsuitable due to needs of disabled 15.9 69 19.0 / elderly household member Rent / Mortgage too expensive 12.7 55 12.9 Suffering harassment 4.7 20 6.5 Inadequate facilities 2.7 12 8.5 Tenancy insecure 0.0 0 2.7 Total 990 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 13.4.7 The largest issue for BME households was that their house needs repair / improvement (48.5%) compared with 38.5% of all households. The other main reason for inadequacy was that their house was too costly to heat (44.5%). 13.4.8 There was no over‐occupation found in the BME community according to the ‘Bedroom standard’. This is a different result from the level of respondents who selected ‘insufficient number of bedrooms’ in the table above (115 implied), but not an unusual result due to the very low sample of BME households in the County. The level of over‐occupation in the whole population was only 1.4% overall.

13.5 Disability / Limiting Long Term illness 13.5.1 Respondents were asked to indicate if any member of the household had a disability or long term limiting illness. 21.2% of the BME sample (399 implied households) had a member of their household with a disability or long‐term illness (25.7% in the whole population) and 36.5% had a care / support need (185 implied households). 13.5.2 When asked how many members of the household had a disability or limiting long term illness, 98.3% said there was just one member in their household. 13.5.3 Data for the age groups of BME disabled household members showed 59.1% were over the age of 50 compared to 77.2% of all disabled household members. 30.0% were over 65 compared to 50.4% over 65 in the general population. 13.5.4 BME households were asked about the nature of their disability. A high number of BME households (70.4%; 300 implied) specified a walking difficulty (not in a wheelchair) compared to 54.0% of the whole population.

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13.5.5 33.6% (143 implied) said they had a ‘other’ disability, which when asked to expand on included Epilepsy (5.5%), Arthritis (19.4%) and Cancer (16.7%). 15.0% (64 implied) said that a member of the household had mental health problems.

13.6 Moving Plans of BME Households 13.6.1 BME households were asked a question regarding their moving intentions within the next 3 years. 554 implied BME households (27.3%) indicated that they are expecting to move or a member of their household is likely to require their own accommodation over the next three years. 13.6.2 4.1% (83 implied) BME households stated that they wished to move but were not able to. 13.6.3 All of the BME households who responded to the question on the reasons for preventing a move said they were unable to move because they were unable to afford to buy a home compared with 61.0% in the whole population. Table 13 ‐5 Reasons Preventing a Move Question 18e BME All Nos. households% households % Unable to afford to buy a home 55 100.0 61.0 Level of personal debt 31 55.9 15.2 Unable to afford removal costs 25 45.5 15.2 Lack of affordable rented housing 6 10.5 30.0 Do not wish to move from school catchment area 6 10.5 9.4 Lack of suitable property in the area 6 10.5 40.9 Unable to pay rent deposit / rent in advance 6 10.5 19.4 Health Problems 0 0.0 4.4 Family reasons 0 0.0 11.9 Location of Employment 0 0.0 6.4 Total 135 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 13.6.4 184 implied existing and 40 implied concealed BME households stated that they would be moving out of Northumberland in the next 3 years. Respondents were also asked to indicate the reasons for moving out of the County, the results are shown in the table below. Table 13 ‐6 Reasons for Moving Out of Northumberland Question 18d BME households All households Nos. % % Family reasons 148 60.3 36.4 Education 40 16.1 16.4 Employment / access to work 36 14.8 39.4 Lack of affordable rented housing 21 8.8 4.5 Retirement 17 6.8 11.3 Lack of public transport 5 1.9 11.7 Unable to afford to buy locally 5 1.9 4.8 Total 272 Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

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13.6.5 The most significant reason for existing BME households leaving the County was family reasons (60.3%), followed by education at 16.1% and employment / access to work at 14.8%.

13.7 Existing BME Households Moving 13.7.1 241 existing BME households indicated they would be moving within Northumberland in the next 3 years. These households were asked a series of questions regarding the type, size and tenure required. 13.7.2 The main type of housing required by existing BME households moving in the next three years is detailed in the following Graph. Table 13 ‐7 Type of Housing Required (BME Existing Households Moving)

Flat / Maisonette / Bedsit 5.4%

Semi‐Detached 6.4%

Detached 6.9%

Terraced 8.9%

Bungalow 72.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey 13.7.3 Bungalow was by far the main type of property required at 72.4%. 13.7.4 The following graph shows the size of property requirements for BME households moving.

Table 13 ‐8 Size of Property Required (BME Existing Households Moving)

1 bedroom 5.4%

2 bedrooms 81.3%

3 bedrooms 6.4%

4 bedrooms 6.9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

138 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

13.7.5 2 bedrooms was the main size of property required by BME households moving at 81.3%. 13.7.6 The main tenure required by existing BME households moving within the County in the next 3 years is shown in the following Graph. 77.5% require social rented followed by private rented required by 8.9%.

Table 13 ‐9 Tenure Required (BME Existing Households Moving)

Source: DCA Northumberland 2012 Housing Needs Survey

13.8 Concealed BME Households Moving 13.8.1 In relation to the question on the intention of setting up a home of their own in Northumberland within the next 3 years, 90 concealed BME households responded. However, when asked to respond to further questions in relation to their move, 103 concealed households actually responded. 13.8.2 The majority who were looking to set up a home in the County within the next three years, were children (16+) of the existing household (80.7%), 11.2% were the partner / spouse and 8.0% was ‘other’ relative. 13.8.3 When asked what type of accommodation they could realistically afford, 62.0% (64 implied) said they could afford a flat / maisonette and 38.0% (39 implied) said a semi‐ detached house. 13.8.4 Respondents were then asked what type of accommodation they would ‘prefer’ and 49 concealed households responded. 41.1% would prefer a semi‐detached house, 26.5% a bungalow, 19.0% a flat / maisonette and 13.5% would prefer supported housing. 13.8.5 103 concealed households responded to the question on how many bedrooms were needed. 62.5% (64 implied) require two bedrooms, 19.1% (20 implied) require one bedroom and 18.4% (19 implied) require three bedrooms. 13.8.6 The main tenure which can by realistically afforded by concealed BME households moving within the County in the next 3 years is Social rent (55.6%; 64 implied) followed by private rented accommodation 28.4% (33 implied). 13.8.7 The main tenure preferred however is owner occupation at 63.7% (39 implied), followed by Social rent (21.2%) and then private rent at 15.1%.

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14 CLG NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL

14.1 Introduction 14.1.1 Although this study is not a Strategic Housing Market Assessment it is being conducted in accordance with the Practice Guidance. 14.1.2 This indicates that housing authorities and partnerships should estimate the number of households who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market. 14.1.3 Table 14 ‐1 outlines the types of housing considered unsuitable. Table 14 ‐1 Types of Housing Deemed Unsuitable

Unsuitable Housing Homeless households

Homeless households or insecure Households with tenure under notice, real threat of tenure notice or lease coming to an end; housing that is too expensive for households in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense Overcrowded according to the ‘bedroom standard’ Too difficult to maintain (e.g. too large) even with equity release Couples, people with children and single adults over Mismatch of housing need and 25 sharing a kitchen, bathroom or WC with another dwellings household Households containing people with mobility impairment or other specific needs living in unsuitable dwelling (e.g. accessed via steps), which cannot be made suitable in‐situ Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have the resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants) Dwelling amenities and condition Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have the resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants) Harassment from others living in the vicinity which Social Needs cannot be resolved except through a move Source: Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guide, CLG,

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14.2 The CLG Needs Assessment Model Structure 14.2.1 There are three‘ Stages’ in the needs assessment model, combined into three distinct sections assessing current and future housing need and supply.

STAGE 1 CURRENT HOUSING NEED 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation Plus 1.2 Overcrowded (households who failed the CLG ‘bedroom standard’) and concealed households (those over 25 who share facilities with another household) Plus 1.3 Other groups 1.4 Equals ‐ Total Current Housing Need ↓ STAGE 2 FUTURE HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) Times 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to rent in the market Plus 2.3 Existing households falling into need 2.4 Equals ‐ Total Newly Arising Need

↓ STAGE 3 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need Plus 3.2 Surplus stock Plus 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable housing Minus 3.4 Units to be taken out of management 3.5 Equals ‐ Total Affordable Housing Stock Available 3.6 Annual supply of social re‐lets (net) Plus 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re‐let or re‐ sale at sub‐market levels. 3.8 Equals ‐ Annual Supply of Affordable Housing

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14.3 Model Structure 14.3.1 The Housing Needs Assessment Model is based on the 2007 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Practice Guidance, and is designed to estimate the number of households who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market. It provides essential evidence for housing targets in Local Development documents. 14.3.2 The model is structured on a ‘flows’ basis, taking account of recent experience over the previous three years and examining projections over the next two years. It has to be assumed that this ‘annualised’ data will occur each year to 2017. The primary data has a five year ‘life’ and will of course be gathered again before 2017. Major changes in house prices and incomes could cause significant variation in the overall situation. 14.3.3 In this section the assessment of affordable housing need has been conducted using both primary data from the 2012 Housing Survey and secondary data from CORE, HSSA and the local authority.

14.4 Northumberland CLG Needs Assessment Model 14.4.1 The first element of this Stage of the model estimates the number of homeless households including those in temporary accommodation. st 14.4.2 The latest data available, the P1(E) return at 31 March 2011 identified 178 homeless households. 14.4.3 Care must be taken in the assessment to avoid double counting those households who are “homeless at home” or in other general stock as they would potentially have been captured in the survey data, which is used to determine housing need at different stages. 14.4.4 68 households were in a hostel or refuge which would not have been surveyed and a total of 68 is therefore the figure applied at Stage 1.1 in the model. 14.4.5 The second element in Stage 1 of the model estimates the number of households in over‐crowded conditions (i.e. those who fail the ‘bedroom standard’), and concealed households (couples, people with children and single adults aged over 25 who share facilities with another household). Table 14 ‐2 Over‐crowded and Concealed Households Over‐crowded Households 1,863 MINUS Concealed Solution or Leaving County 586 1,277 PLUS Concealed Households 65 Overcrowded + Concealed Group 1,342 MINUS Duplication 0 Net Overcrowded + Concealed Group 1,342 Proportion unable to afford market housing 80.6% Stage 1.2 – Over‐crowding and concealed households 1,081

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14.4.6 There are 1,863 households in Northumberland who are over‐crowded by the ‘bedroom standard’. However 586 of these will be resolved by a newly forming household moving or by the households leaving Northumberland, leaving a net group of 1,277. There are 65 concealed households creating a total of 1,342 over‐ crowdedd an concealed households. 14.4.7 A test of affordability for these households shows that 80.6% of them cannot afford to resolve their housing difficulties through market housing in Northumberland and 1,081 households have been applied in the model at Stage 1.2. 14.4.8 The third element in Stage 1 of the model examines households living in unsuitable accommodation whose problem cannot be solved ‘in‐situ’ and who therefore require to move home in order to resolve their difficulty. 14.4.9 SHMA Practice Guidance identifies that households who are overcrowded, were suffering harassment, those whose rent / mortgage was too expensive, housing was affecting their health, whose tenancy was insecure or whose home was too large are all in unsuitable housing and are assessed to need to move home. 14.4.10 The survey identified 6,227 households with one or more inadequacies, 86 of whom were already counted in Stage 1.2 and are removed to avoid double‐counting. 14.4.11 This leaves a net group of 6,141 households, 37.8% of whom are unable to afford to resolve their housing difficulties through market housing in the area, leaving 2,319 households to be applied in the model at Stage 1.3. 14.4.12 The final element of Stage 1 of the model is a sum of steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3, a total of 3,468 applied at Stage 1.4. Table 14 ‐3 Current Housing Need (Gross)

STAGE 1 – CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation 68 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households 1,081 1.3 Other groups 2,319 1.4 TOTAL CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 3,468 1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3

14.5 Stage 2 – Future Need (Gross per year) 14.5.1 The first element of Stage 2 of the model estimates the annual number of newly forming households in Northumberland. 14.5.2 The concealed households identified in the survey forming over the next two years are annualised at an average level of 1,561 households forming a year, although levels are consistent over the period. Table 14 ‐4 Time of Move – Concealed Households Time of Move Nos. implied Annual Average Within 1 year 1,602 1,561 1 ‐ 2 years 1,519

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14.5.3 In order to avoid double counting due to two‐person household formation, duplication is removed. 59.4% of concealed households forming over the next three years specified formation as a couple, with 52.4% of these having a partner who lived separately elsewhere in Northumberland, which would cause a double count. 14.5.4 However data on recently formed households suggests that couple formation was 52.3%, but we have retained the higher level of 59.4%. The 52.4% has therefore been applied to this higher level in the table below (59.4% x 52.4% = 31.1%). Table 14 ‐5 Double Counting Removal New household formation (gross p.a.) 1,561 MINUS ‐ Two person formation (1,561 x 31.1%) x 0.5 243 Total 1,318

14.5.5 This results in an annual average formation level of 1,318 households per annum, used at Stage 2.1 of the model. 14.5.6 The income of recently formed households who formed their first home over the last three years has been used to test the ability to purchase in the lower quartile stock and access the private market (to buy or rent) of one, two and in some cases three bedroom units suitable for their requirements. 14.5.7 On this basis 45.8% of concealed households are considered to be unable to rent in the private market, with 51.8% unable to buy. The rental proportion of 45.8% is therefore used at Stage 2.2 of the model. 14.5.8 The final element of Stage 2 of the model estimates the number of households in Northumberland who fall into housing need. 14.5.9 The calculation of existing households falling into need used Northumberland Council’s Housing Register data over the year to March 2011 and found that of 4,227 new registrations on the waiting list, there were 915 households assessed as in need, including 178 homelessness acceptances, applied at Stage 2.3 of the model. 14.5.10 The final element of Stage 2 of the model is a sum of step 2.1 multiplied by step 2.2, added to step 2.3 above, giving a total of 1,472 applied at Stage 2.4. Table 14 ‐6 Future Need (Gross per Year)

STAGE 2 – FUTURE NEED (GROSS PER YEAR) 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) 1,318 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to buy (51.8%) or rent (45.8%) 45.8% in the market

2.3 Existing households falling into need 915

2.4 TOTAL ANNUAL NEWLY ARISING NEED 1,519 (2.1 x 2.2) + 2.3 (1,318 x 45.8% = 604 + 915 = 1,519)

144 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

14.6 Stage 3 – Affordable Housing Supply 14.6.1 The first element of Stage 3 of the model determines the number of households analysed in Stages 1.2 and 1.3 who currently occupy social rented or shared ownership dwellings. It is assumed that any move by these households would release a unit of affordable housing, and it is therefore assumed that there would be no overall net effect on the annual flow model. 14.6.2 The survey data shows that 2,061 of the households at Stages 1.2 and 1.3 of the model live in affordable units, and this total is applied at Stage 3.1.

14.7 Vacant Stock 14.7.1 The second element of Stage 3 of the model assesses the level of surplus affordable stock in Northumberland. The level of vacant affordable units in the 2011 HSSA is 54 units less than 1% of the stock. Guidance states that where the level is below 3% there is no surplus vacant stock. A total of zero is therefore applied at Stage 3.2 of the model. 14.7.2 The third element of Stage 3 of the model forecasts the number of new affordable units to be built in the Northumberland on an annual basis. The Council returns for the last two years to 31/03/2011 show the following recent new unit trends:‐ Table 14 ‐7 New Affordable Housing Supply 2009 to 2011

Supply 2009 / 10 2010/ 11 Average %

New Council/RP Rent 166 94 121 67 Intermediate 37 25 40 22 Other New Supply 0 40 20 11 Total 203 159 181 100.0

14.7.3 If there is a consistent level of recent and immediate future new delivery it is normal practice to take account of the average annual level. The average annual new supply total is 181 units per annum, with a tenure split of 67% social rented and 33% intermediate housing, mainly shared ownership with some ‘other’ new supply. 14.7.4 Council data shows that target new delivery over the next two years is expected to be 180 new units built in each year, in line with the average built over the last two years. 14.7.5 The impact of the recession on new delivery is significant and could reduce new affordable delivery through planning obligations. However, the County has delivered new housing over the past two years and with a similar target for next two years, it is therefore recommended that delivery of 180 units is used at Stage 3.3. 14.7.6 The next element of the model estimates the number of units to be taken out of management in Northumberland through stock demolition and Right to Buy (RTB) on an annual basis. 14.7.7 The table below shows the RTB and demolition levels from Council data for the three years to 31/03/2011.

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Table 14 ‐8 2008 to 2011 Right to Buy / Demolitions

2008 / 09 2009 / 10 2010 / 11 Average Right to Buy 11 7 12 10 Demolitions 0 0 0 0 Total 11 7 12 10

14.7.8 The average loss of units through RTB is 10 units per annum and levels have remained very similar over the period since 2008/09. 14.7.9 If the average stock re‐let rate of 5.8% per annum is applied to the average figure of 10 units lost for future re‐letting, this would be less than one unit and a figure of zero is applied at Stage 3.4 of the model. 14.7.10 Stage 3.4 of the model is the sum of Stages 3.1 (2,061), less 3.2 (0), and 3.3 (0), a net total of 2,061. Annual Re‐let Supply 14.7.11 The average annual re‐let supply of affordable units over the last three years is normally used in the model as a prediction for the future annual affordable housing supply from re‐lets likely to arise. It is important firstly to establish the average net general needs stock re‐let level (i.e. excluding transfers and new unit delivery). 14.7.12 Council data for the two years to 31/03/2011 have been studied, which shows the following:‐ Table 14 ‐9 Council / RP Social Rent Re‐let Supply (CORE 2009 to 2011)

2009 / 10 2010 /11 Average Social Re‐lets 1,692 1,118 1,405

14.7.13 The overall average net re‐let figure for the Council / RP stock for the two year period to 2010/11 of 1,405 units re‐lets a year, a turnover rate of 5%, is applied at Stage 3.5. Shared Ownership Re‐sales 14.7.14 There were 512 shared ownership units recorded in the 2001 census since then there has been a number built by Registered Providers. However this is a gross figure and does not take into account those who have stair‐cased out or any which have been re‐possessed. 14.7.15 We have therefore used the TSA data as at March 2012 states that RP’s shared ownership stock is a total of 256 units. Assuming a re‐sale rate of 5%, the social stock turnover rate, 13 units would become available each year and this number is incorporated at Stage 3.6.

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14.7.16 The final element of Stage 3 of the model is a sum of Stages 3.6 and 3.7, a total of 1,623 applied at Stage 3.8. Table 14 ‐10 Affordable Housing Supply

STAGE 3 – AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need 2,061 3.2 Surplus stock 0 3.3 less Units to be taken out of management 0 3.4 TOTAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING STOCK AVAILABLE 2,061 3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 = 3.4

3.5 Annual supply of social re‐lets (net) 1,405 3.6 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for 13 re‐let or resale at sub market levels 3.7 Committed supply of new affordable housing 180 3.8 ANNUAL SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING 1,598 3.6 + 3.7

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14.8 Affordable Housing Needs Model STAGE 1 – CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation 68 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households 1,081 1.3 Other groups 2,319 1.4 TOTAL CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 3,468 1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3 STAGE 2 – FUTURE NEED (GROSS PER YEAR) 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) 1,318 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to buy (51.8%) or rent (45.8%) in the 45.8% market 2.3 Existing households falling into need 915 2.4 TOTAL ANNUAL NEWLY ARISING NEED 1,519 (2.1 x 2.2) + 2.3 (1,318 x 45.8% = 604 + 915 = 1,519) STAGE 3 – AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need 2,061 3.2 Surplus stock 0 3.3 less Units to be taken out of management 0 3.4 TOTAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING STOCK AVAILABLE 2,061 3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 = 3.4 3.5 Annual supply of social re‐lets (net) 1,405 3.6 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re‐let or 13 resale at sub market levels 3.7 Committed supply of new affordable housing 180 3.8 ANNUAL SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING 1,598 3.5 + 3.6 + 3.7 = 3.8

A TOTAL NET CURRENT NEED 1,407 1.4 – 3.4 (3,468 – 2,061 = 1,407 ) B QUOTA TO ADDRESS NEED OVER 5 YEARS 20% C ANNUAL CURRENT NEED (A x B) 281 D TOTAL ANNUAL NEWLY ARISING NEED (2.4) 1,519 E TOTAL AFFORDABLE NEED PER YEAR (C + D) 1,800 F ANNUAL SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (3.8) 1,598 OVERALL ANNUAL SHORTFALL (E – F) 202

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14.9 Affordable Needs Assessment 14.9.1 Elimination of the backlog over a five year period is recommended in the SHMA Guidance for model purposes but the Council could make a Policy decision to do so over a longer period (e.g. 10 years or the number of years to the end of the Local Development Framework period). These eare mor often used where the scale of the backlog clearly cannot be addressed. 14.9.2 The 5 and 10 year periods are used for further analysis in Table 14 ‐11 below. The 10 year calculation uses 10% as the quota to address need, instead of 20% which is the quota for 5 years applied at Section B of the Housing Needs Model at paragraph 14.8. 14.9.3 Net re‐lets of 1,405 units of the existing social stock are the major means of addressing the scale of need identified. 14.9.4 After allowing for this level of existing social stock net re‐let supply and 13 estimated shared ownership re‐sales, there will still be a total annual affordable housing shortfall of 202 units. 14.9.5 However, in arriving at the net shortfall, the Model already incorporates the projected future average new supply of 180 additional new units and the total net annual need, prior to new delivery, is therefore either 382 units dealing with the backlog over 5 years, or 242 over 10 years. 14.9.6 The table below outlines the calculation. Table 14 ‐11 Annual Affordable Need and Supply 5 Years 10 Years Total Net Current Need 1407 1,407 Backlog rate 20% 281 10% 141 Newly arising Need 1,519 1,519 Annual Affordable Need 1,800 1,660 Less Annual Supply 1,598 1,598 Net annual need 202 62 Plus Assumed new units of supply 180 180 Total Need after existing stock turnover 382 242

14.9.7 The total affordable need identified in the County Wide 2010 SHMA was 488 and has been re‐assessed at 382 units a year, based on addressing the backlog over 5 years. 14.9.8 As it is not possible to deliver on the five year basis, a 10 year period shows a level of need of 242 a year after re‐let supply but before any new unit delivery should be used.

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15 PLANNING AND DELIVERY

15.1 Overall Housing Demand 15.1.1 The findings of the Housing Needs Survey data identifies that there is an overall total demand for market housing of around 3,400 units and for affordable housing of 1,800 units per annum. The majority of both need and demand should be met by turnover of the existing stock. 15.1.2 The distinction between housing demand and need is fundamentally economic. If a household can satisfy its own requirement for housing in the private market it is termed ‘demand’ but if some form of subsidy is required it is termed to be ‘need’. 15.1.3 The CLG 2008 based household forecast data shows a total growth of 18%, 25,000 units over the 2008 to 2033 period, an average of 1,000 households a year. 15.1.4 It should be noted that the demand for new housing does not necessarily represent a level of need that has to be met. Demand for housing is a much wider concept than need and includes a household’s aspiration to move to a larger property, whilst the property they live in may be sufficient to their needs. 15.1.5 It is important therefore that the Council seeks to ensure that when suitable sites come forward for residential use that they incorporate an element of affordable housing to meet the need for affordable units not met by the turnover of the existing stock and negotiates with private landowners and developers to help maximise the amount of affordable housing that can viably be delivered. 15.1.6 The survey data provides identified need levels in each sub‐area, and the Council must apply their own judgement as to the suitability of sites for affordable housing for low income families and concealed households unable to enter the private market. 15.1.7 The North East of England Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) proposed that 895 dwellings average per annum be delivered over the period 2011 to 2016 and an 885 unit average from 2004 to 2021. The Council are considering whether to remain with the RSS delivery figure and will be consulting on a range of options to identify the housing requirements for the County during the life of the Plan. 15.1.8 The annual level of outstanding affordable need of 382 units, based on addressing the backlog over 5 years to 2017 is around 43% of the RSS annual housing target averages. Even if the backlog is dealt with over 10 years the need level of 242 units is 27% of the full potential annual housing target. 15.1.9 It is not in the remit of this Housing Needs Survey to assess whether or not the evidence of housing demand can be delivered within the County. This exercise will need to consider a range of other factors and issues, including the ability of the County to accommodate future housing growthd an local planning constraints. 15.1.10 Future housing development over the plan period will be focused mainly within the existing urban area. 15.1.11 In our extensive experience of housing assessments over the last 20 years, the County is not unique in being unable to deliver the levels of either housing demand or need that are evident through local housing needs assessments.

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15.1.12 Local planning authorities are not expected to simply translate housing demand into actual housing targets that need to be met. They are only part of the evidence and need to be considered against other factors, including cross‐boundary issues. 15.1.13 It is common for a Housing Needs Assessment to identify a higher level of demand and need than can be delivered or set as targets in development plans.

15.2 Low Cost Market Housing 15.2.1 Low cost market housing is likely to be smaller one and two bedroom units which are provided to meet the needs of households with income levels just adequate to access the housing market. 15.2.2 Recent years have seen an increase in the number of apartment schemes being developed. However, the County does not have a high level of apartments and the overall percentage level is well below the national and regional averages. 15.2.3 Therefore, this recent trend has helped to provide a more balanced and sustainable local community and has helped to provide a greater choice of housing across the County. 15.2.4 Given that household growth in the County will be mostly from smaller households, it is considered that the apartment market will continue to play a key role in meeting market housing, particularly for new forming households. 15.2.5 The delivery of these smaller units as part of market delivery will be important to help provide good quality smaller units of housing and to address a balanced type and size mix within new delivery. 15.2.6 Low cost market housing does not however, represent affordable housing within the planning definition, specifically confirmed in NPPF. 15.2.7 Homes that do not meet the definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing are not considered to be affordable housing for planning purposes. 15.2.8 These are ‘starter’ homes and are part of the general market. 15.2.9 The major difficulty and challenge for this sector is affordability within the County for concealed households forming their own household. It is this factor which is creating the need for shared ownership and other forms of subsidised intermediate housing.

15.3 Affordable Housing 15.3.1 The NPPF definition of affordable housing is:‐ ¾ ‘Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision.

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Affordable housing should: ¾ Meet the needs of eligible households including availability at a cost low enough for them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. ¾ Include provision for the home to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or, if these restrictions are lifted, for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision. 15.3.2 The types of affordable housing are as follows:‐

Social rented housing: ¾ Is owned by local authorities and private registered providers (as defined in section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency. Affordable rented housing: ¾ Is let by local authorities or private registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing. ¾ Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable).

Intermediate housing: ¾ is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable rented housing. 15.3.3 These definitions replace those given in previous editions of PPS3 (2006 and 2010) and related Guidance such as Delivery of Affordable Housing 2006.

15.4 Affordable Housing Target Levels 15.4.1 Targets should be set based on what is sustainable, viable and deliverable, and importantly support other corporate strategies, especially for regeneration areas and the desire to improve the housing offer to achieve a better socio‐economic balance. 15.4.2 These should be the major factors in determining the scale and tenure mix of future affordable housing delivery. Affordable housing need however should be balanced with the requirements of other corporate strategic priorities. 15.4.3 The scale of need justifies an affordable housing target but even in the highest priced areas nationally where there are also usually small levels of social stock, targets have rarely exceeded 40%, even in more normal economic conditions. 15.4.4 Although the crisis in the financial and housing markets will cause major changes in the operations of the development industry and may require significant flexibility on site negotiations in the short term, future planning policies need to be set in place for the longer term.

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15.4.5 If the backlog of demand for affordable housing is dealt with over a period of 5 years 382 units a year are required, around 43% of the previous RSS full annual average housing delivery. 15.4.6 The Tribal Viability Assessment 2010 suggests that 30% would be viable in the high value areas without grant and 30% in the low value areas but with grant. 15.4.7 A 43% target in the emerging LDF would render many schemes unviable, especially in the urban areas where most development will be delivered. 15.4.8 In authorities where regeneration is a key strategic factor, an overall affordable housing target of 25% is more commonly found and such a target could deliver around 224 units of affordable housing annually across the County. 15.4.9 The net affordable need addressing the backlog on a 10 year basis, after re‐lets, but before new unit delivery is 242 units each year, 27% of the assumed future annual housing allocation each year. 15.4.10 The findings provide a defensible, rigorous and up‐to‐date part of the evidence base to support the emerging affordable housing policy in the County LDF and will provide the basis to negotiate with developers on future planning applications. 15.4.11 Based on the robust evidence found in this assessment, an overall affordable housing target of 30% of new units could be justified to be negotiated from all suitable sites, subject to the critical balance of tenure mix on viability. 15.4.12 However, because the lower value urban area sites are unlikely to achieve a 30% target, varying tenure mix proportions would need to be negotiated in the other two housing market areas where the social housing stock levels are much lower and property prices are higher. This would be a critical means of creating a more balanced and better housing offer in each market area within the County. 15.4.13 Each site will need to be assessed individually, targets being subject to wider planning, economic viability, regeneration and sustainability considerations and will require a flexible approach to specific site negotiation. 15.4.14 Viability will ultimately be the key determinant of the scale and content of affordable units on a site. The availability of grant will clearly be a significant factor in the lower land value areas where regeneration is also of strategic importance. 15.4.15 The 30% is an overall County level which if achieved would deliver around 270 units a year, subject to final decisions on the total scale of housing delivery. 15.4.16 A major factor in decisions determining the proportion of affordable housing and the tenure mix between social rented and intermediate housing on each site is the current local area supply of social rented and shared ownership units which will vary quite significantly between areas. 15.4.17 More detailed analysis of the three housing market areas is provided in the Market Sub‐Area Report including potential housing target levels to address future delivery to create more balanced housing markets and communities in each area. 15.4.18 These factors can only provide a guide relating to a market area but the target for each site and the impact of the surrounding area is critically determined by the site viability analysis.

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15.4.19 Meeting the total need for affordable housing however also involves a range of initiatives in addition to new unit delivery through the planning system. ¾ to free up under‐occupied social units making best use of the existing stock; ¾ by bringing empty properties back into use; ¾ bringing social sector stock up to Decent Homes Standard.

15.5 Tenure Mix Targets 15.5.1 NPPF requires that the SHMA identifies scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures needed over the plan period. Tenure mix targets within affordable housing, which may vary by location within the County to take account of demand, need and current affordable supply at local sub‐area level will be required. 15.5.2 The overall affordable housing tenure mix balance to address local need for social and affordable rent and intermediate housing, should be subject to a wider range of social stock supply and other planning, regeneration and development viability factors at local area level. 15.5.3 The increases in house prices over the last decade have excluded many ‘first‐time buyers’ from the owner occupied market. Despite the relatively small falls in price over the last four years affordability remains a difficulty for many existing and new forming households. 15.5.4 The tenure balance of new affordable delivery over the last three years up to March 2011 has been 67% social rent and 33% intermediate housing. 15.5.5 An overall tenure mix target of 67% social rent and 33% intermediate housing from affordable delivery would support the scale of interest expressed in the survey of 400 units over the next five years, around 80 a year on average. 15.5.6 The recent HomeBuy and First Buy funding initiatives between lenders and developers for shared equity could also have a strong short term influence for intermediate housing for sale. 15.5.7 Property Size Targets 15.5.8 In view of the current stock balance and longer term demographic and household formation change, all future development should address the imbalance of stock type and size, both by tenure and location to create a more sustainable and balanced housing market. 15.5.9 The overall affordable housing target and the need for different types and sizes in the affordable and market sectors have been provided to assist Planning and Housing Officers to support targets and give direction to the types, and particularly size of housing to be delivered to create a better balance in the local stock.

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15.6 Market Housing 15.6.1 Creating a more balanced stock has to address imbalances in the current stock structure. 15.6.2 Nearly three quarters of all owner‐occupied properties (73.5%) have 3 or more bedrooms, a very high level. The demographic impact, which is very significant in the County, will increasingly have an effect on housing choice decisions. 15.6.3 Currently 28% of owner occupiers with a mortgage and 23% with no mortgage live in properties with 4 or more bedrooms, compared to 24% and 30% respectively of 1 and 2 bedroom units. 15.6.4 There is a need for a higher proportion of two bedroom units to create better housing offer and address the increasing need for smaller properties due to demographic and household formation change. 15.6.5 Broadly we recommend a 60% small (1 and 2 bedrooms) and 40% large unit (3+ bedrooms) balance which could be subject to greater variation at site level.

15.7 Social and Affordable Rented Stock 15.7.1 Social rented housing is 20.1% of the stock in the County in 2012 but does not provide adequate turnover to meet the scale of need identified. The availability of rented stock through re‐lets is low relative to the expectation that existing stock flows should address 90% of all need. 15.7.2 However, in availability from turnover, the social rented sector provided 1,118 units compared to no recorded re‐sale supply from shared ownership properties in CORE data the last year to March 2011. 15.7.3 Development Plan Documents need to provide a clear guide on the size of future affordable housing units required. Stock balance, turnover and waiting list demand analysis are vital to identify the gaps in the stock and the proportions by type and size required to address current and future need. 15.7.4 Almost 86% of the general needs waiting list is for one and two bedrooms but they have a higher turnover rate. In view of the nature of priority need for small units and the scale of likely annual new provision of social rented units, it would be reasonable at County level overall to consider a property size target for small units for new social rented properties (including those at Affordable Rents) of 65%, mainly 2‐bedrooms. 15.7.5 These are principally flats and terraced houses to meet the needs of single, couple and small family households. 15.7.6 Almost a third of the social stock in the County is three bedroom family units and the level of under‐occupation (by two spare bedrooms) is estimated at around 3,350 properties. 15.7.7 The impact of the increasing older population will be to increase this situation, and it is now even more important to achieve a better flow of the under‐occupied, family sized social rented stock as a means to help address the scale of need for family units.

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15.7.8 Achieving a better flow of family units should also have a cascade effect, increasing turnover of all smaller unit sizes as households are able to transfer to larger units to meet their need. In effect up to four household moves could result from the delivery of one new older person’s property. 15.7.9 The 35% balance of new social/affordable rented delivery should target three and four bedroom houses to address the needs of larger families. Table 15 ‐1 Social and Affordable Rented need by bedroom size Bedroom Size (%) 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms + 65 35

15.8 Intermediate Rented Housing 15.8.1 In theory, discounted market rent should be an option for new unit delivery without grant support for households whose only alternative is intermediate housing for sale, especially those at the early stages of their careers or on limited employment contracts who are looking for flexibility in their housing arrangements. 15.8.2 However, discounted market rented housing can only be delivered provided that there is an adequate cost margin between social rent and market rent. Given that average private sector rents across the County are £350 to £425 per month for 1 and 2 bedroom stock there does not appear to be potential to deliver intermediate rented housing in the County. 15.8.3 The Coalition Government decision to introduce Affordable Rents at up to 80% of market value for new social rented stock effectively removes intermediate rent as an affordable housing option because there is very limited headroom between 80% and 100% of average market rent in many parts of the County.

15.9 Intermediate Affordable Housing 15.9.1 Intermediate affordable housing can include shared ownership, shared equity or discounted market housing. 15.9.2 The requirement for property size in the intermediate housing market is usually mainly 1 and 2 bedroom units to meet the needs of concealed households, unable to access the market sector as a first time buyer. 15.9.3 However 20% of expressed interest in shared ownership is from existing households, mainly leaving the private rented sector and in some cases owner occupation but also requiring mainly two bedroom properties. 15.9.4 There was no interest expressed in the survey for three bedroom properties. 15.9.5 Demand for one bedroom properties is driven partly by affordability and there should be flexibility in the target to meet demand as it arises. 15.9.6 A property size target of 40% one and 60% two bedrooms could be set to meet the requirements of the households in this sector.

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15.10 Older Households 15.10.1 Many existing older households living in large properties have adequate equity and savings to be able to access new build sheltered and extra care accommodation to meet their needs. 15.10.2 However, the stock balance and price structure of market housing in the County is such that there will be a large number of owners of terraced and smaller semi‐ detached properties with equity levels inadequate to purchase in this sector and will require shared equity options to move to appropriate housing for older people. 15.10.3 In view of the demographic growth forecasts and high proportion of cheaper market stock, provision of shared equity for older people should be considered within the intermediate housing delivery strategy. 15.10.4 A summary of the property size requirements for all tenures is shown in the table below. Bedroom Size (%) Tenure 1‐Bedroom 2‐Bedrooms 3‐ Bedrooms 4‐ Bedrooms + Market Sector 60 40 Intermediate 40 60 0 0 Social & Affordable Rented Sector 65 35

15.10.5 Based on the data in tables 10‐2 and 10‐9, of the small unit stock in total 38% of the two bedroom and 13% of the one bedroom requirements are for bungalows.

15.11 Building to Lifetime Homes Standard 15.11.1 All new housing built is expected to meet the standards set out in Part M of the Building Regulations. The standards include wider doorways to enable wheelchair access, kitchen and bathroom layouts to suit those with limited mobility. 15.11.2 However, the Lifetime Homes Standards go further than this ensuring that the design features make adaptations easier and help a resident remain in their own home as their needs change. 15.11.3 The revised Lifetime Homes Standard was published on 5 July 2010 and the Code for Sustainable Homes technical guidance was updated to include the revised Lifetime Homes Standard on 11 November 2010 but these are only mandatory when the builder has to meet level 6. 15.11.4 The Council should consider including the Lifetime Homes Standard into housing policies in particularly for all 1 and 2 bedroom properties. 15.11.5 Lifetime Homes should not conflict with the Council’s need to tackle under‐ occupancy in larger properties for those households under‐ occupying by two or more bedrooms. 15.11.6 However there will still be a need to build larger homes specifically for families and those with disabled residents and these should also comply with the standards. 15.11.7 It is more cost effective to include the standards at the build stage rather than having to adapt homes retrospectively but where possible any refurbishment to existing housing should also bring the property up to the lifetime home standards.

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16 UPDATING THE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

16.1 Introduction 16.1.1 The Study should be regularly updated at least annually in the same way as a Strategic Assessment. 16.1.2 According to CLG, Strategic Housing Market Assessment Practice Guidance, Housing Partnerships will need to consider developing comprehensive strategies for monitoring housing market areas and updating their Strategic Housing Market Assessments. 16.1.3 This section provides guidelines as to how the findings of the HNS should be monitored and updated on a regular basis, as CLG Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance, version 2 (August 2007). 16.1.4 The NPPF also expects that regular monitoring through the Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) will take place and that where market conditions change there may be a need to reassess demand and need. The HNS will provide tools to allow regular monitoring and updating to take place, to satisfy requirements of AMR and also keep a watching brief on any changes within the market. 16.1.5 This assessment is easily and readily updated annually. It is important to recognise that there is a difference between monitoring and updating the assessment. Updating requires tracking short‐term changes in the housing market conditions, to ensure policies and strategies are responsive to changes in local demands and pressures. 16.1.6 Undertaking HMA / HNS updates will initially focus on the three main variables identified in the 2007 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Practice Guidance as shown below. Variable Data source Mid‐year population and households estimates Labour market changes External impacts on the market Interest rates Income and earnings surveys New build completions Affordable housing delivered through S106 agreements Housing stock changes Demolitions Remodelling Outstanding planning permissions House prices Private sector rents Affordability changes Changes in household incomes Shared ownership initiatives etc 16.1.7 The set of core indicators above will be used, which DCA have developed during the course of the study. These could be integrated into the new monitoring framework for LDF (Annual Monitoring Report) or as a joint housing and planning task. 16.1.8 The following section outlines the processes of updating the various elements of the HMA.

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16.1.9 This is followed by a guideline for when a full revised Housing Market and Needs Assessment is due and details of any market triggers which may affect this timescale and cause the projected timescale to be brought forward.

16.2 Updating the CLG Needs Assessment Model 16.2.1 The Client Data CD provided upon completion of the HNS contains a Needs Assessment Model Calculator in Excel. 16.2.2 The purpose of the calculator is to allow annual updating of all the secondary data utilised in the Model and to enable this to be done in‐house. 16.2.3 A detailed description of the secondary data required, where it can be sourced from and how it is applied to each element of the Assessment Model calculation is included in the introduction to the calculator. 16.2.4 It is recommended that this updating to the Model is carried out at the same time as completion of the annual HSSA in July each year.

16.3 Updating Other Secondary Data 16.3.1 There are a wide range of secondary sources utilised in this Assessment which are updated on a quarterly or an annual basis. 16.3.2 Appendix IV of this Assessment outlines the sources of secondary data utilised in this assessment. This document details:‐ ¾ The source location i.e. where the data can be accessed from; ¾ The year or quarter of the data utilised in the Assessment; ¾ Frequency of release of the various data sets. e.g. quarterly or annually; ¾ The next release date of each data set used. 16.3.3 This document can be used as a guide as to when each data set is available and can be updated in the Assessment.

16.4 Core Sustainability Indicators 16.4.1 It will be necessary for the Council to have detailed data on an annual basis to record actual new development by tenure, type, size and by location within the County each year. 16.4.2 This data is essential to be able to measure performance against targets for sustainable development set in the Local Development Plan both for market and all forms of affordable housing. 16.4.3 Data on social stock re‐lets and changes to the waiting list and new unit delivery need to be able to be analysed by property type and size and location. This structure should already be in place to support completion of the HSSA. 16.4.4 Monitoring of new delivery in the market sector and data on conversions will also be required by property, type, size and location to measure delivery against planned targets to improve the balance of the housing stock.

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16.5 Updating the Primary Survey Data 16.5.1 The primary data file requires a complex weighting process to ensure that it is representative of the whole population. 16.5.2 DCA would normally provide within their support service a process which would re‐ run the survey data to the current household population at the time of update. This is normally two years after the initial study has been undertaken. This has the effect of making a minor change to the data to reflect the study results as if they had been assessed in the current population. 16.5.3 It is recommended that this is undertaken by the original survey specialist company or at least with their assistance.

16.6 Monitoring and Communicating Changes to the HNS 16.6.1 Partnership working would be of paramount importance to ensure that updating of the HNS is done with the consent and knowledge of all involved. 16.6.2 The continuation of a key project officer team to oversee the updating and to ensure access to the most recent versions of the HNS report sections would be essential. 16.6.3 There are various ways in which the wider partnership can be made aware of changes to the HNS and how it can be ensured that the reader is accessing the most recent version of the HNS. 16.6.4 One way that this could be done is through the Council website where the most up to date versions of each chapter can be made available. If people wish to access a previous version, these could be accessed through an archive. 16.6.5 A ‘log’ of updated changes made to the data could be devised which would be ongoing. This could be displayed as a document on the website and would detail:‐ ¾ The section that has been changed; ¾ The date it was updated; ¾ A brief note of the change(s) made; ¾ A note of any other sections affected.

16.7 Plans to Fully Revise the HNS 16.7.1 Housing Market Assessments provide a robust basis for developing housing and planning policies by considering current and future need and demand over a period of around 20 years. As a result partnerships should not need to undertake a full comprehensive assessment more frequently than every five years. 16.7.2 The next full HNS will be due in 2017 / 2018.

16.8 Market Triggers 16.8.1 During the course of updating the HNS and accessing revised data, Housing partnerships should work together to review the data. From this an assessment can be made of how radically new data or changes in the housing market affect the assessment and can also suggest whether the new information triggers that a re‐ assessment of the HNS is needed earlier than 2017.

160 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

16.8.2 Possible triggers for a revised assessment are:‐ ¾ A significant local economic change, e.g. downturn or upturn in the market; ¾ Significant stock delivery changes; ¾ Major house price change; ¾ Change in Government Policy or Guidance.

161 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

17 BIBLIOGRAPHY

Communities and Local Government (2006) Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing.

Communities and Local Government (2007) Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance.

DETR Local Housing Needs Assessment: ‐ A Guide to Good Practice, 2000

Land Registry (2011) Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, 4th Quarter 2011, © Crown Copyright

Northumberland Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA) 2010 / 2011

Northumberland County Council, Northumberland Strategic Housing Market Assessment, Final Report 2010, Tribal

Communities and Local Government (March 2012) National Planning Policy Framework

Office of National Statistics Economic and Labour Market Review 2010

Office of National Statistics Sub‐National Population Projections 2008

Survey of English Housing (SEH) 2010 / 2011

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Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

18 GLOSSARY

GLOSSARY ABI Annual Business Inquiry. Affordability A measure of whether households can access and sustain the costs of private sector housing. DCA use two types of affordability: mortgage and rental. Mortgage affordability measures whether households can afford a deposit and a mortgage; rental affordability measures whether a household can afford a private rental. Mortgage affordability is based on conditions set by mortgage lenders ‐ a minimum level of household income and savings. We use a 3 times multiple of gross income. Rental affordability is defined as the rent being less than a proportion of a household’s gross income. We use a 25% level of rental affordability. Affordable Housing Affordable housing is that provided, with subsidy, for people who are unable to resolve their housing requirements, in the general housing market because of the relationship between local housing costs and incomes. The definition in NPPF is:‐ ‘Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision. This definition covers housingr fo social rent and intermediate housing through shared ownership, shared equity and sub‐market rent. Affordable Rent A form of social rented housing, involving homes being made available at a rent level of up to 80% of market rent (inclusive of service charges). CLG Bedroom The standard number of bedrooms allocated to each household in Standard1 accordance with its age/sex/marital status composition and the relationship of the members to one another. A separate bedroom is allocated to each married couple, any person aged 21 or over, each pair of adolescents aged 10 – 20 of the same sex, and each pair of children under 10. Any unpaired person aged 10 – 20 is paired, if possible with a child under 10 of the same sex, or, if that is not possible, he or she is given a separate bedroom, as is any unpaired child under 10. This standard is then compared with the actual number of bedrooms available for the sole use of the household and the differences are tabulated.

1 This definition is taken from the Survey of English Housing, CLG. 163

Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

BME Black & Minority Ethnic. Choice Based Lettings Choice Based Lettings allows applicants for social housing (and (CBL) tenants who want to transfer) to apply for vacancies which are advertised widely in the neighbourhood. Applicants can see the full range of available properties and can apply for any home to which they are matched. CLG Communities and Local Government. CLG has responsibility for local and regional government, housing, planning, fire, regeneration, social exclusion and neighbourhood renewal with the ambition to create sustainable communities for all. Previously known as DETR, DTLR, ODPM and DCLG. CML Council of Mortgage Lenders Concealed Household A Concealed Household is someone living within a household wanting to move to their own accommodation and form a separate household (e.g. adult children living with their parents). CORE The Continuous Recording System (Housing Association and Local Authority Lettings / New Tenants). DETR Government body superseded by CLG. (See CLG) DfT Department for Transport Discounted Market New Units utilising the equity from the discounted or free land from Rented Housing the planning process where Housing Associations could build at only development cost and provide, without grant, units which would be available at lower than private rented market cost but above Housing Corporation rent caps. Existing Household An existing household encompasses the household in its entirety. FTB First Time Buyer – Term used for people who have not previously owned a home. HMO House in Multiple Accommodation – A house which is occupied by persons who do not form a single household Homeless Household A household is accepted as statutorily homeless by the authority if it meets the criteria set out in the Housing Act 1996. Household The Census definition of a household is:‐ “A household comprises either one person living alone or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address with common housekeeping ‐ that is, sharing at least one meal a day or sharing a living room or sitting room.” Housing Demand Is the quantity and type / quality of housing which households wish to buy or rent and are able to afford. It therefore takes account of preferences and ability to pay. Housing Need Refers to households lacking their own housing or living in housing which is inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their needs in the local housing market without some assistance.

164

Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

Housing Register A register of people waiting for affordable housing. It may have two components: a list for those not currently occupying affordable housing (more properly known as the Housing Register) and a Transfer List for those tenants who wish to move to another affordable home within the same District. HSSA The Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix. Implied Numbers The “numbers implied” column inserted in some of the tables is DCA’s assessment of the total numbers to be derived after applying the appropriate weighting factor based on sub area location and tenure responses to that sub‐areas household numbers. Where multiple choice is not involved, this will generally equate to the household population of the Local Authority as a whole but some individual questions may not be answered by all respondents, giving a marginally lower total. Inadequate Housing Housing which is inadequate or unsuitable in meeting the needs of the household, comprising a range of criteria on house condition, size, cost and security of tenure. These criteria are used to assess whether the unsuitability can be resolved by improvements to the dwelling, or whether the household has to move to another home. Intermediate Housing at prices or rents above those of social rented but below Housing market prices or rents. This includes shared ownership, shared equity and sub‐market renting. LA Local Authority. LCHO Low Cost Home Ownership. LDF Local Development Framework. This is a folder of local development documents that outlines how planning will be managed within a Local Authority area. LTV Loan to Value ‐ the percentage of loan a person needs against the value of the property. NOMIS National On‐line Manpower Information System. NPPF National Planning Policy Framework, March 2012. (replaced PPS3) ONS Office for National Statistics. Over‐Occupation Over‐occupation or overcrowding occurs when, using the bedroom standard, there are insufficient bedrooms in the property based on the number of residents and their age/sex/marital status composition. Over occupation is more common in the public sector than the private sector. PPS Planning Policy Statement. PPSs are prepared by the government after public consultation to explain statutory provisions and provide guidance to local authorities and others on planning policy and the operation of the planning system. PPS3 Planning Policy Statement 3 Housing (June 2010)

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Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012

PRS Private Rented Sector, market housing rented out to someone other than the owner or their family. Recently Formed Residents who have formed a new household in the last year and Households were previously living within another household. Relets RSL rented accommodation that becomes vacant due to the departure of a previous tenant; therefore the accommodation can be re‐let to another tenant or new applicant on the Housing Register. Registered Social A Housing Association or a not‐for‐profit company, registered by the Landlords (RSL) Tenants Services Authority (TSA), providing social housing. Right to Buy (RTB) The Right To Buy Scheme gives eligible council tenants the right to buy their property from their council at a discount. Many RSL tenants have similar rights under the Right To Acquire. Survey of English The Survey of English Housing is a continuous household survey that Housing (SHE) collects information from nearly 20,000 households about the characteristics of their housing and their attitudes to housing and related issues. Sheltered Sheltered Accommodation is housing which is purpose built for older Accommodation people with associated facilities and services. SHG – Social Housing Capital provided by the HCA, or Local Authority, to fully or partially Grant fund RSLs when developing social housing. SHG is paid under s18 of the Housing Act 1996. SO – Shared Either newly built or existing properties purchased by a housing Ownership provider, which are then sold on a part rent / part buy basis under a shared ownership lease. The shared owner buys a percentage of the property, funded by mortgage and / or savings. The remaining percentage is still owned by the housing provider who charges a rent on it. Purchasers can, in some cases ‘staircase out’ to full ownership. Transfer A local Authority or RSL tenant who have transferred to another LA or RSL property Transfer List A list of Local Authority and RSL tenants that have applied for alternative Local Authority housing. Housing Associations may keep their own Transfer Lists and some authorities may combine transfer applicants in one Housing Register. Under‐Occupation A household is under‐occupying if more than one spare bedroom is available, using the bedroom standard as a test. Under‐occupation is common in the private sector.

166

APPENDIX I

POSTAL QUESTIONNAIRE COUNTY HOUSING SURVEY 2012

Dear Householder

I am writing to ask for your help with an important survey. As a council we are legally required to develop housing and planning policies to meet the needs of people in the coming years. We have to carry out this survey to help us to do this, and would greatly appreciate your help with it.

In order to ensure that the results are assessed independently the council has appointed DCA consultants to carry out the survey. The attached questionnaire is being sent to a number of randomly selected households, and we would be very grateful if you could spare a few moments to fill it in.

Whether you own or rent your home, we need your views. Even if you are not planning to move or change your personal circumstances, please reply. We want to hear from people who do not need to move as well as those that do, as this will give us a more complete picture.

I would like to assure you that the survey is confidential and no name or address is required, the form is coded only to identify the area where you live. None of the completed questionnaires will be seen by either the council or any third party. The data will be seen by the council only in generalised statistical form and will be used for research and planning purposes on an area basis.

You can also complete the questionnaire online using the unique six digit access code at the bottom of your questionnaire. If you wish to use this facility please log on to http://www.dcauk.com/northumberland/onlineQuestionnaire.php. .

If you have any queries, need a copy of this survey in large print or need help or advice in completing the form, please contact the DCA Research Team free on 0800 169 7865 or e-mail [email protected]. Alternatively, please contact Andy Clarke on 01670 532206 or email [email protected].

Please help us by completing the questionnaire and returning it in the pre-paid envelope provided by 25 January 2012.

I want to take this opportunity to thank you for your support in helping us meet the future housing needs of Northumberland. A copy of the final report will be available from Northumberland County Council website in June 2012.

Yours faithfully DATA PROTECTION

The information you provide on this form will be kept strictly confidential and will not be used to identify you or your household. DCA are independent consultants, registered as a Data Controller with the Information Commissioner's Office (Registration Number Z4683342). For more information please visit www.dcauk.com/dataprotection, or contact Kevin Lowry us free on 0800 169 7865 Interim Head of Housing

7062090891 TO BE COMPLETED BY THE HOUSEHOLDER 2020090890

Please answer the questionnaire on behalf of everyone in the household - that is everyone for whom this is their main residence (including any children away at college and lodgers). Cross one box only for each question unless instructed otherwise, using a black pen. e.g. A: ABOUT YOUR EXISTING HOUSING

1 Is your present home :- Please cross one box only

Owner occupied 1 Owner occupied 2 Private rented 3 Council rented 4 (paying mortgage) (no mortgage)

Housing Shared Ownership Tied to your Living rent free 5 6 7 8 Association rented (part rent / part buy) employment

2 What type of property is your home? Please cross one box only

Detached house 1 Semi - Detached 2 Terraced house 3 Detached 4 Semi - Detached 5 house bungalow bungalow

Terraced bungalow 6 Flat / Maisonette 7 Bedsit 8 Caravan / Mobile 9 home / Houseboat

3 How many bedrooms are in your current home? Please cross one box only

Bed-sit1 One2 Two3 Three4 Four5 Five or more 6

4 How long have you lived at your current address? Please cross one box only Between Between Between Between Over Less than 1 year 1 1 and 2 years 2 2 and 3 years 3 3 and 5 years 4 5 and 10 years 5 10 years 6 GO TO 6 GO TO 6 on Page 3 on Page 3

5a If you have moved in the last five years, where did you previously live? Please cross one box only

Northumberland 1 North 2 South 3 Newcastle 4 Gateshead 5 Durham 6 Tyneside Tyneside upon Tyne

Carlisle Eden Scottish Elsewhere in Abroad 7 8 9 10 11 Borders the UK

5b If you have moved within the County in the last five years, in which area did you previously live? Please cross one box only GO TO PAGES 11 AND 12 TO SEE MAP AND LIST OF AREAS

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30

31 32 33 34 35

36 37

2 2204090894

5c What was the tenure of your previous home?

Council / Housing Owner occupied Private rented Shared Ownership Tied to your Lived with 1 2 Association 3 (part rent / part buy) 4 employment 5 family / friends 6 rented

5d What were the three most important things that persuaded you to move to this location? (please cross up to three boxes)

Family reasons Employment / Education Financial Unable to No suitable 1 access to work 2 3 reasons 4 access care 5 accommodation 6 and support for disability / health needs

Lack of public Unable to afford to Lack of affordable Quality of Retirement transport 7 buy locally 8 rented housing 9 neighbourhood 10 11

5e If you have moved in the last three years, is this your first home on Yes 1 2 your own as an adult? No

6 If you live in shared accommodation, what facilities do you share with other residents who are not in your household? e.g. A bedsit with a shared bathroom. If not shared accommodation GO TO 7

Please cross all that apply

Bath / Living None 1 Toilet 2 3 Kitchen 4 Eating area 5 Shower room 6

7 In your opinion, is your present accommodation adequate Yes 1 GO TO 8d No 2 GO TO 8a for your needs?

8a If in your opinion, your present accommodation is not adequate for your needs, what are the reasons? Please cross all that apply

Needs improvements 1 Too costly 2 Too large 3 Too small 4 / repairs to heat

Insufficient no. 5 Unsuitable due to 6 Rent / mortgage too 7 Tenancy 8 of bedrooms needs of disabled / expensive insecure elderly household member

Suffering 9 Inadequate 10 No heating / 11 harassment facilities insufficient heating

8b If your present accommodation is not adequate for your needs, Yes 1 2 do you need to move to resolve the difficulty? GO TO 8c No GO TO 8d

8c If yes, could you afford a home of a suitable size in your preferred location within the Yes 1 No 2 County?

8d Do you think your present accommodation will require any of the following repairs / improvements in the next three years? Please cross all that apply

Additional security 1 Improved heating 2 Re-wiring 3 Damp proofing 4 Roof repairs 5

Window repairs 6 Insulation 7 Decorating / general 8 None of these 9 improvement

3 0176090890

2 9 Does any member of your existing household have a disability Yes 1 No or a limiting long term illness? GO TO 10a GO TO 11 The shaded boxes are provided for a second household member, if required 10a If yes, how many members of your household have a disability or have a limiting long-term illness?

One1 12Two

10b What age groups are they?

Member 1 0 - 10 1 11-15 2 16-24 3 25-34 4 35-49 5 50-64 6 65-79 7 80+ 8

Member 2 0 - 10 1 11-15 2 16-24 3 25-34 4 35-49 5 50-64 6 65-79 7 80+ 8

10c What is the nature of the disability or limiting long-term illness? Please cross all that apply Member 1 Member 2 Member 1 Member 2 Member 1 Member 2 Member 1 Member 2 Indoor wheelchair Mental health Walking difficulty 1 1 Outdoor wheelchair 2 2 3 3 4 4 User user problems (not in wheelchair)

Learning disability 5 5 Obesity 6 6 Diabetes 7 7 Drug and/or 8 8 alcohol problems abuse

Visual / hearing 9 9 Asthmatic / 10 10 Dementia / 11 11 Other - Please State 12 12 impairment respiratory problem Memory loss

1 2 3 4 10d Do any members of the household require care / support? Yes No GO TO 10h

10e If yes, are they currently receiving sufficient care / support? 2 No 4 Yes 1 1 2 2

GO TO 10g

Family / neighbour / 10f If they are currently receiving sufficient Registered care agency / 12 3 4 care / support, who provides it? voluntary body friend GO TO 10h 10g If they are not receiving sufficient care / support, which of the following do you / they require help with: Please cross all that apply Member 1 Member 2 Member 1 Member 2 Member 1 Member 2 Member 1 Member 2 Claiming welfare benefit 1 2 Someone to act 3 4 Arrange social 5 6 Personal safety / 7 8 / managing finances on your behalf contact / activities security

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Accessing health Looking Accessing Help with memory services after your home training / loss / dementia employment

10h In the last two years has your / their health got worse? Yes12 No

4 11 Has your home, or the access to it, been built or adapted to meet the needs 1 2 of a disabled resident? Yes No GO TO 12 GO TO 13

12 If yes, does your home have any of the following facilities?2 Please cross all that apply

1 Ramp / Level access shower 2 Stepped access 3 Stair lift 4 Vertical lift 5 Steplift shower

Bath /shower room and 9 Ground Floor 678Adaptation to use a Battery operated toilet bedroom downstairs wheelchair indoors bath lift

13 What facilities, if any, need to be provided to ensure current members of your household can remain in your property? Please cross all that apply

None 1 Ramp / step lift 2 Stair lift 3 Vertical lift 4

Ground floor toilet 5 Bath / shower room and 6 Adaptations to use a 7 Battery operated 8 bedroom downstairs wheelchair indoors bath lift Stepped access Other - please shower 9 Level access shower 10 specify 11

1 2 14a Do you have elderly relatives who may need to move closer to you within Yes No the next five years? GO TO 14b GO TO 15a

14b If yes, what kind of accommodation might they need? Please cross all that apply

Live with you Live with you Privately owned Council owned Housing Assoc Extra care housing 1 2 3 4 5 6 (existing home (need extension/ sheltered sheltered sheltered housing (with care & support adequate) adaptation) housing housing services on site)

Residential care / 7 Owner occupied 8 Private rented 9 Shared ownership 10 Housing Assoc 11 Council property 12 nursing home property property property general general

1 2 15a Are you considering doing any work to your home that will make it warmer / Yes No more energy efficient? GO TO 15b GO TO 15c

15b If yes, what are you considering? Please cross all that apply

Double glazing 1 Cavity wall 2 Solid wall external 3 Loft insulation 4 insulation insulation

Condensing 5 Solar panels 6 SMART meter 7 Other - please specify 8 boiler

15c If you are not, please advise why? Please cross all that apply

Don't own the property 1 Too expensive2 Don't know enough about whats on 3 offer (the product / technology) Not sure who to trust Other - please No work required to do the work 4 specify 5 6

6331090899 5 16a How many people live in your home (including yourself)? Please put the number. e.g. 0 3 16b Which of these categories best describes the ethnic origin of your head of household? Please cross the appropriate box White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Other Ethnic British 1 White & Black Caribbean 5 Indian 9 Caribbean 14 Arab 17

Irish 2 White & Black African 6 Pakistani 10 African 15 Any other 18 ethnic group - Gypsy or Irish 3 White & Asian 7 Bangladeshi 11 Other Black / 16 please state Traveller Caribbean / African Other Mixed Race Any other White 4 8 Chinese 12 background background Background Other Asian background 13

PLEASE COMPLETE ONE LINE PER PERSON IN THE TABLE BELOW FOR EACH PERSON LIVING IN YOUR HOME, WHETHER MEMBERS OF YOUR FAMILY OR NOT (E.G. INCLUDE LODGERS). INSTRUCTIONS ARE BELOW. Column C (Gender) Please cross the appropriate box Column D (Age) Please cross the appropriate box Column E (Employment) Please write the number which best describes each member’s employment type from the following list;

Working as an employee 01 Self-employed or freelance 02 Doing any other kind of paid work 03 Working paid or unpaid for your own 04 On a government 05 Away from work ill, on maternity leave, 06 or your family’s business sponsored training scheme on holiday or temporarily laid off Full / part time carer 07 Wholly retired from work 08 Looking after the home 09 Long-term sick or disabled 10 Full time education (age 16+) 11

Column F (Occupation) Please write the number which best describes each member’s occupation type from the following list;

Professional 1 Managerial & Technical 2 Skilled, non-manual 3 Skilled, manual 4 Partially skilled 5 Unskilled 6 Other 7

Column G (Work Place) Please write the number which best describes each member’s place of work from the following list;

Northumberland 01 North Tyneside 02 South Tyneside 03 Newcastle upon Tyne 04 Gateshead 05 Durham 06 Carlisle 07 Eden 08 Scottish Borders 09 Elsewhere in the UK 10 Abroad 11 Work from home 12

Column H (Travel to Work) Please write the number which best describes how each member of the household travels to work / college from the following list;

Work mainly at / from home 01 Metro/ light rail / tram 02 Train 03 Bus, minibus or coach 04 Taxi 05 Motorcycle, scooter, moped 06 Driving a car / van 07 Passenger in car/ van 08 Bicycle 09 On foot 10 Other 11 E F H Household C Gender D Age G Employ MF0-10 11-15 16-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65-79 80+ Occup Work Travel to Member -ment -ation Place Work

1 EXAMPLE 01 1 01 01 1 Self

1 Spouse/Partner

1 Child 1

1 Child 2

1 Child 3

1 Child 4

1 Partner of Child

1 Grandchild 1

1 Grandchild 2

1 Parent 1

1 Parent 2

1 Lodger 1

1 Lodger 2 Other 1

6 2268090894 WE WOULD BE GRATEFUL IF YOU WOULD COMPLETE THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS ON SAVINGS AND INCOME SO THAT WE CAN ESTIMATE WHAT TYPE OF HOUSING YOU COULD / CAN AFFORD. THE INFORMATION THAT YOU PROVIDE IS KEPT CONFIDENTIAL AND WILL NOT BE USED FOR ANY OTHER PURPOSES THAN ASSESSING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY. 17 Please advise what savings and equity your household has by completing columns A, B, C AND D a) How much does your b) If you are a home owner, roughly c) Please give total annual income d) How much rent or mortgage household have in savings? how much equity value do you own? of combined self & partner only do you pay, including that (please estimate) (i.e. estimated current value minus (before tax and deductions, but not covered by Housing Benefit mortgage owed) including benefits / allowances).

1 1 No Savings Negative Equity None 1 None 1

2 Under £5,000 2 Under £10,000 Under £10,000 2 Under £57pw / £250pcm 2

3 £10,000 - £25,000 3 £57 - £80pw / £251 - £350pcm 3 £5,000 - £10,000 3 £10,000 - £25,000

4 4 £81 - £103pw / £351 - £450pcm £25,001 - £50,000 £25,001 - £35,000 4 £10,001 - £15,000 4

5 5 £104 - £127pw / £451 - £550pcm £50,001 - £75,000 £35,001 - £45,000 5 £15,001 - £20,000 5 6 £75,001 - £100,000 £45,001 - £60,000 6 £128 - £150pw / £551 - £650pcm 6 £20,001 - £30,000 6 7 £151 - £173pw / £651 - £750pcm £100,001 - £150,000 £60,001 - £75,000 7 7 7 Above £30,000 8 £174 - £196pw / £751 - £850pcm Above £150,000 £75,001 - £100,000 8 8

Above £100,000 9 Above £196pw / £850pcm 9

17e If your household receives any financial support, please indicate what type:- Please cross all that apply

Housing Benefit / Local 1 Income Support234 Job Seekers Working Family Tax Credit Housing Allowance Allowance/ESA

Pension Credits5 Disability Allowance6 Council Tax Benefit 7 Other 8

WE WOULD NOW LIKE TO ASK ABOUT THE FUTURE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF YOU AND THE OTHER MEMBERS OF YOUR HOUSEHOLD 18a Are you intending to move, or is any member of your household currently, or likely to require their own accommodation over the next three years?

1 Yes GO TO 18b Wish to move but 2 GO TO 18e No 3 THANK YOU FOR cannot COMPLETING THE 18b If YES, please cross the appropriate box(es) below:- QUESTIONNAIRE Moving within the County

Of those currently living with you 2 The existing 1 GO TO SECTION B a member of the household GO TO SECTION C household is moving ON PAGE 7 intends to form a separate new ON PAGE 8 Moving outside the County household/home

The existing 3 Of those currently living with you a GO TO 18 c+d 4 GO TO 18 c+d household is moving member of the household intends to form a separate new household/home 18c If moving outside the County, where are you thinking of moving to? Please cross one option only

North 1 South 2 Newcastle 3 Gateshead 4 Durham 5 Tyneside Tyneside upon Tyne

Carlisle7 Eden 8 Scottish 9 Elsewhere in 10 Abroad 11 Borders the UK 18d If moving outside the County please indicate your reasons for moving away:- Please cross all that apply Family reasons Employment / Education Financial Unable to No suitable 1 access to work 2 3 reasons 4 access care 5 accommodation 6 and support for disability / health needs Lack of public Unable to afford to Lack of affordable Quality of Retirement 7 8 9 10 11 transport buy locally rented housing neighbourhood

THANK YOU FOR COMPLETING THE QUESTIONNAIRE. PLEASE RETURN IN THE PRE-PAID ENVELOPE PROVIDED 18e If you wish to move but are not able to, which of the following reasons are preventing you? Please cross all that apply Unable to afford 1 Cannot move due to 2 Do not wish to move 3 Family reasons4 Location of 5 to buy a home health problems from school catchment employment area Lack of affordable Lack of suitable Unable to pay rent Level of personal 6 7 Unable to afford 8 9 10 rented housing property types in the deposit/rent in removal costs debt area I want to move to advance THANK YOU FOR COMPLETING THE QUESTIONNAIRE. PLEASE RETURN IN THE PRE-PAID ENVELOPE PROVIDED 7 2226090898 B: EXISTING HOUSEHOLD MOVING IN NORTHUMBERLAND Complete this section ONLY if your existing household intends or needs to move WITHIN Northumberland County in the next five years

19 When do you plan to move? Please cross one box only Within Between Between Between 1 2 3 4 1 year 1 and 2 years 2 and 3 years 3 and 5 years

20 What type of accommodation is required? Please cross one box only

Detached house 1 Semi - Detached 2 Bungalow 3 Terraced house 4 Flat / Maisonette 5 house

Bedsit Housing adapted for Supported/ Caravan / Mobile 6 7 8 9 disability needs sheltered housing home / Houseboat

21 If you require supported housing, which of the following types do you require? Please cross all that apply

Independent accommodation Independent Privately owned Council sheltered with visiting support 1 accommodation with 2 sheltered housing 3 housing 4 live-in carer Extra care housing Housing Association (with care & support Residential / 5 6 7 sheltered housing services on site) nursing home

22 How many bedrooms are required? Please cross one box only

One1 Two 2 Three3 Four4 Five or more 5

23 What tenure is required? Please cross one box only

Owner occupation1 Private rent 2 Council rent 3 Housing 4 Association rent Shared ownership 5 Shared equity 6 (part rent / part buy)

24 Are you registered on the Northumberland Homefinder Waiting List?

Yes 1 No 2

25 From the list of areas below, where is accommodation required? Please cross up to two locations GO TO PAGES 11 AND 12 TO SEE MAP AND LIST OF AREAS

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30

31 32 33 34 35

36 37

26 Why are your choices of locations preferred? Please cross all that apply

Always lived To be near New job / Closer / easier Accessibility to Nearer / better shops / here family / friends employment to commute to public transport leisure / entertainment work facilities Health / Quality of support / Able to afford Greater availability local schools local housing of type of Better quality Retirement personal care of area reasons housing sought IF A NEW HOUSEHOLD IS ALSO FORMING, GO TO SECTION C ON PAGE 8 OTHERWISE THANK YOU FOR COMPLETING THE QUESTIONNAIRE. PLEASE RETURN IN THE PRE-PAID ENVELOPE PROVIDED

0655090892 8 C: NEWLY FORMING HOUSEHOLDS IN NORTHUMBERLAND If a member, or members, of your household intend or may need to set up a home of their own WITHIN Northumberland within the next five years, please provide details of up to two “new” households likely to form. The shaded boxes are provided for a second household forming, if required. 27 Who is looking / likely to look for accommodation in 29 What tenure can a) be realistically afforded, and b) the next three years? Household preferred for each"new" household? 1 2 Afforded Preferred 1 2 1 12 Grandparent...... Owner occupation...... 1

2 Parent...... Private rent ...... 2

3 Child (16+)...... Council rent...... 3

Partner / spouse...... 4 Housing Association rent...... 4 ...... Other relative...... 5 Shared ownership (part rent/part buy). 5 ...... 6 Lodger / friend...... Shared Equity ...... 6 ......

28a Is the “new” household being formed as a single 30 When will each "new" household need their home? person or with a partner? Household 12

Within 1 year...... 1 Household Between 1 and 2 years...... 12 2 1 Between 2 and 3 years...... Single...... 3

Between 3 and 5 years...... 4 Couple...... 2 31a What type of accommodation can a) be realistically afforded, and b) preferred for each "new" household? 28b If a couple household is being formed, is the Afforded Preferred Household partner currently living :- 12 12 12 1 1 Semi - Detached house...... 1 In your existing household...... 2 2 2 Detached house...... Elsewhere in Northumberland...... 3 3 Terraced house......

3 4 Outside of the County...... Flat / Maisonette...... 4

Bedsit ...... 5 5 28c What is the age of each adult in each "new" household Bungalow...... 6 6 Household 1 Household 2 Adult 1 Adult 2 Adult 1 Adult 2 Supported / Sheltered Housing ...... 7 7 1 16 - 24...... 1 Housing adapted for disability needs...... 8 8

25- 34...... 2 2 Caravan / Mobile home (permanently 9 9 sited)...... 3 35 - 49...... 3 31b How many bedrooms are a) needed and b) preferred 4 50 - 64...... 4 for each "new" household? Needed Preferred 12 1 2 65 - 79...... 5 5 1 One...... 1

6 2 80+...... 6 Two...... 2

3 Three...... 3

4 Four...... 4

5 28d How many children under 16 will be in each "new" Five or more...... 5 household? Household 1 2 1 None...... 32 Is the "new" household registered on the 2 Northumberland Homefinder Waiting List? Child due...... Household One...... 3 1 2 1 Two...... 4 Yes......

2 Three...... 5 No...... Four or more...... 6

9 3062090897 33 Where is accommodation required? Please cross up to two locations GO TO PAGES 11 AND 12 TO SEE MAP AND LIST OF AREAS

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10

11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30

31 32 33 34 35

36 37

34 Why are the locations above preferred? Household 37a How much would each "new" household be able Please cross all that apply 1 2 and willing to pay in rent and mortgage costs per month? Always lived here...... 1 Household 1 2 Under £69 pw / £300 pm...... To be near family / friends...... 2 1 £69 - £93 pw / £301 - £400 pm...... 2 New job / employment...... 3 £93 - £104 pw / £401 - £450 pm...... 3 Closer / easier to commute to work...... 4 £104 - £150 pw / £451 - £650pm...... 4 Accessibility to public transport...... 5 £151 - £200 pw / £651 - £865 pm...... 5 Nearer / better shopping / leisure / entertainment 6 facilities...... 6 Above £200 pw / £865 pm......

Quality of local schools / colleges...... 7 37b What savings does each household have to meet a Health / support / personal care reasons...... deposit and legal costs? Household 8 21 No Savings...... 1 Able to afford local housing...... 9 Under £1,000...... 2

Greater availability of type of housing sought...... 10 £1,000 - £5,000...... 3 Better quality of area...... 11 £5,001 - £10,000...... 4

Retirement...... 12 £10,001 - £20,000...... 5

£20,001 - £30,000...... 6 35 Is the "new" household likely to be claiming Household 1 2 Over £30,000...... Housing Benefit / Local Housing Allowance 7 1 Yes...... 37c Will each "new" household get help with a deposit Please cross one box only 2 from parents / relatives? No...... Household 21

By a loan...... 36a What type of assistance would new households 1 consider to help buy a home? By a gift...... Household 2 Please cross all that apply 1 2 No need...... 3 1 Shared Equity...... 1 No help available...... 4 Help to build a home yourself (self build)...... 2 2

Discounted Housing to Buy...... 3 3 37d Please give total annual HOUSEHOLD income2 for the person or couple in each new household Shared ownership (part rent / part buy)...... 4 4 (including benefits & allowances but before tax Help to provide the deposit...... 5 5 and deductions) Household 1 2 Lend a hand 5% mortgage deposit (first time buyers). 6 6 Under £10,000...... 1

36b What type of assistance would new households 2 consider to help rent a home? £10,001 - £20,000...... Household Please cross all that apply 3 1 1 2 £20,001 - £25,000......

4 Rent deposit...... 2 £25,001 - £30,000......

5 Rent in advance...... 3 £30,001 - £35,000......

List of accredited landlords...... £35,001 - £45,000...... 6 4 List of accredited properties...... 5 £45,001 - £50,000...... 7 Being able to negotiate a longer tenancy length...... 6 £50,001 - £75,000...... 8 More information on tenants rights/ landlord responsibilities...... Above £75,000...... 9

10 0698090899 9282090897

11 0556090892

Map Map Map Area List of settlements Area List of settlements Area List of settlements Number Number Number Berwick-upon-Tweed Rothbury 21 Haydon Bridge Spittal Thropton 1 Acomb Tweedmouth Whittingham 9 22 Slaley East Ord Netherton Whitley Chapel Glanton Horncliffe 23 Hexham Norham Hepple 24 Corbridge Cornhill Amble 2 10 Heddon-on-the Wall Scremerston High Hauxley Stocksfield Ancroft Broomhill Wylam Holy Island Hadston 11 25 Mickley Square Lowick Togston Ovingham Crookham Red Row Riding Mill Ford 12 Widdrington Station Whittonstall Etal Stobswood 26 Prudhoe 3 Morpeth Chatton 13 Stamfordham 27 Branton Pegswood Matfen Milfield Stannington Ponteland 28 Bowsden 14 Longhirst Darras Hall Mitford 4 Wooler Ellington Hepscott 5 Belford Lynemouth 29 East Thirston Cresswell Adderstone Longhorsley Linton Bamburgh Netherwitton Ashington Beadnell 15 Scots Gap 30 Ellingham Bothal 6 Belsay Lucker Newbiggin by the Sea Hartburn 31 Seahouses / Middleton Woodhorn North Sunderland Bellingham Guidepost Spindlestone West Woodburn Choppington Scotland Gate Christon Bank Kielder 32 16 Stakeford Eglingham Otterburn Bomarsund Craster Falstone West Sleekburn Embleton Kirkwhelpington Cambois Longhoughton Fourstones 33 Bedlington Station Lesbury Newbrough East Sleekburn Alnmouth 17 Humshaugh Bedlington Hipsburn Wark 34 7 Warkworth Barrasford Nedderton Shilbottle 18 Haltwhistle 35 Blyth Newton/moor Cramlington Gilsland 36 Felton Bardon Mill East Hartford Swarland 19 Greenhead Seaton Delaval Longframlington Coanwood New Hartley Acklington Whitfield Seaton Sluice/ Powburn 37 Allendale Old Hartley Rennington 20 Catton Holywell 8 Alnwick Allenheads Seghill

12 APPENDIX II

PROMOTIONAL POSTER Northumberland housing survey

We need your help

Northumberland County County has asked independent research company DCA consultants to send questionnaires to selected households across the county during January 2012.

The information requested is very important to our community as it will help the Council assess present and future housing needs.

Completed forms should to be returned by 25 January 2012.

For further information contact: DCA Research Team on 0800 169 7865 or e-mail [email protected]

www.northumberland.gov.uk APPENDIX III

LAND REGISTRY DATA Land Registry Crown Copyright Reserved Data in this report is subject to crown copyright protection. Where the material is being published or issued to others, the source and copyright status must be acknowledged. This information is licensed for your use only and may not be sold to third parties as part of a data set or otherwise unless a licence to do so has been obtained from The Property Information Team.

If you have any enquiries please contact : Commercial Services Team Tel: 0151 473 6137 [email protected]

Land Registry Average Price & Volume of Sales by District October - December 2011 ALL Properties Overall District Name Detached Sales Semi-Det Sales Terraced Sales Flat/Mais Sales Total Sales Average NORTHUMBERLAND £263,486 228 £135,088 273 £119,214 267 £94,112 89 £160,047 857

NORTH REGION £230,984 1585 £131,615 2901 £107,429 3033 £103,343 906 £138,562 8425

England & Wales £324,324 42152 £195,784 50293 £185,237 50563 £221,072 30384 £228,388 173392 APPENDIX IV

SECONDARY DATA SOURCES Secondary Data Sources

DATA SOURCE DESCRIPTION SOURCE LOCATION COVERAGE FREQUENCY OF NEXT RELEASE DATE SAMPLE COST RELEASE 2011 Annual Survey The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) National Statistics Nationally Annually December 2012 Approximately 1% Free of Hours and provides information about the level, distribution Online / NOMIS sample of Earnings (ASHE) and make‐up of earnings and hours paid for employees on the employees within industries, occupations and Inland Revenue regions. PAYE register

The ASHE was developed to replace the New Earnings Survey (NES) in 2004.

The ASHE contains UK data on earnings for employees by sex and full‐time/part‐time workers. Further breakdowns include by region, occupation, industry, region by occupation and age‐groups. These breakdowns are available for the following variables: gross weekly pay, weekly pay excluding overtime, basic pay including other pay, overtime pay, gross hourly pay, hourly pay excluding overtime, gross annual pay, annual incentive pay, total paid hours, basic paid hours and paid overtime hours.

2010 Annual The Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) is conducted in National Statistics Local Authority Annually December 2012 (ABI) estimates Limited data from Business Inquiry two parts: one dealing with employment, the Online / NOMIS and above (ABI year 2010) cover all UK NOMIS available other with financial information. The financial businesses free Full access to inquiry covers about two thirds of the UK registered for Value ABI data is economy including: production; construction; Added Tax (VAT) restricted. You distribution and service industries; agriculture and/or Pay As you must first obtain (part), hunting, forestry and fishing. The coverage Earn (PAYE), a Chancellor of of the employment inquiry is wider. classified to the the Exchequer's 1992 or 2003 Notice from ONS. standard industrial Classification.

DATA SOURCE DESCRIPTION SOURCE LOCATION COVERAGE FREQUENCY OF NEXT RELEASE SAMPLE COST RELEASE 2010/11 ONS The ONS Annual Population Survey is a National Statistics Local Authority Annually and January 2013 There are Free Annual Population residence based labour market survey Online / NOMIS and above Updated approximately Survey encompassing population, economic activity, Quarterly 170,000 households economic inactivity and qualifications. and 360,000 persons per dataset. However this varies from year to year. Census 2001 The Census is a count of all people and all Office for National Nationally Every 10 years Census Free households. It the most complete source of Statistics undertaken 27th information about the population that we have. March 2011. Data The most recent census was on 29 April 2001. It available covers everyone at the same time and asks the generally two same core questions which makes it easy for years later (2013) comparisons in different parts of the country. Census 1991 See description above Office for National Nationally Every 10 years As above Free Statistics Core HA New CORE records information on the characteristics CORE website Nationally Updated each Ongoing Free lettings Data of both HA and LA new social housing tenants www.core.ac.uk time a letting or 2009/10 and the homes they rent and buy. A Housing sale is made Association with more than 250 units or 250 bedspaces is required by the Tenant Services Authority to complete CORE logs fully and accurately. Tenant Services The TSA regulates social housing landlords and www.tenantservices Nationally N/A Free Authority (TSA) sets high standards of management across authority.org (Formerly Housing housing association homes and in the future Corporation) Local Authority social homes. . Homes and The HCA will make sure that homes are built in www.homesand Nationally N/A Free Community Agency an economically, socially and environmentally communities.co.uk (HCA) (Formerly sustainable way, as well as promoting good Housing design. It also has a key role in regenerating Corporation) communities and will base its approach on the Government’s regeneration framework – Transforming Places; Changing Lives.

DATA SOURCE DESCRIPTION SOURCE LOCATION COVERAGE FREQUENCY OF NEXT RELEASE DATE SAMPLE COST RELEASE Housing Strategy The HSSA contains 14 sections of Local www.communities. Nationally Annually Generally Free Statistical Appendix Authority statistical information. It is a handy gov.uk available from (HSSA) reference document which brings together data June each year – items from many different housing areas. The 2012 HSSA purpose of the Appendix is to bring together available June statistical information relevant to the 2012 formulation of the Housing Strategy. Land Registry The Land Registry House Price Index is the most www.landregistry.g Postcode, Local Monthly & Quarterly Monthly updated House Price Index accurate independent house price index ov.uk Authority and Quarterly data is free but available. It includes figures at national, above quarterly data regional, county and local authority level. It available for a allows you to obtain lists of average house fee. Contact land prices from 1995 onwards in any area of Registry England and Wales for any range of months. P1(e) Returns P1(e) returns are the primary source of data for Local Authority Local Authority Quarterly ‐ Free statutorily homeless households. The purpose of the P1(e) returns is to collect information on applications, acceptances by priority need groups, households provided with temporary accommodation and households leaving temporary accommodation.. December 2009 The claimant count records the number of National Statistics Local Authority Monthly ‐ Free ONS Claimant people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) Online / NOMIS and above Count broken down by age, duration and their sought or usual occupation.

APPENDIX V

AFFORDABLE RENT LEVEL ANALYSIS

Affordable Rent Levels –Northumberland County, Council, PRS and RPs Source: Social Rents from TSA and Northumberland Council, PRS from Rightmove RP – Registered Provider

Northumberland AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE 60% of 70% of 80% of North LA RENT RP RENT PRIVATE RENT PRS PRS PRS 1‐Bed £227 £259 £382 £229 £268 £306 2‐Bed £246 £274 £488 £293 £342 £391 3‐Bed £268 £303 £534 £321 £374 £427 Northumberland AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE 60% of 70% of 80% of South East LA RENT RP RENT PRIVATE RENT PRS PRS PRS 1‐Bed £227 £259 £367 £220 £257 £294 2‐Bed £246 £274 £444 £266 £311 £355 3‐Bed £268 £303 £491 £295 £344 £393 Northumberland AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE 60% of 70% of 80% of Central LA RENT RP RENT PRIVATE RENT PRS PRS PRS 1‐Bed £227 £259 £453 £272 £317 £362 2‐Bed £246 £274 £538 £323 £376 £430 3‐Bed £268 £303 £743 £446 £520 £594 Northumberland AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE 60% of 70% of 80% of South LA RENT RP RENT PRIVATE RENT PRS PRS PRS 1‐Bed £227 £259 £441 £265 £309 £353 2‐Bed £246 £274 £578 £347 £405 £462 3‐Bed £268 £303 £620 £372 £434 £496 Northumberland AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE 60% of 70% of 80% of West LA RENT RP RENT PRIVATE RENT PRS PRS PRS 1‐Bed £227 £259 £350 £210 £245 £280 2‐Bed £246 £274 £413 £248 £289 £330 3‐Bed £268 £303 £559 £336 £391 £447 Average Average Average 60% of 70% of 80% of County Wide LA Rent RP Rent Private Rent PRS PRS PRS 1‐Bed £227 £259 £398 £239 £279 £318 2‐Bed £246 £274 £468 £281 £328 £375 3‐Bed £268 £303 £568 £341 £397 £454