NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY WIDE HOUSING NEEDS SURVEY FINAL REPORT 2012 Version 10.07.13 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................9 1.1 Background & Context.............................................................................................................................9 1.2 Methodology ...........................................................................................................................................9 1.3 The Economic Climate .......................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Future Population and Household Change........................................................................................... 10 1.5 The Current Housing Stock ................................................................................................................... 12 1.6 The Housing Market ............................................................................................................................. 13 1.7 Affordability and Access to Market Housing ........................................................................................ 14 1.8 Second Homes ...................................................................................................................................... 15 1.9 Migration and Moving Households ...................................................................................................... 15 1.10 Households Intending to Move ............................................................................................................ 15 1.11 Households Moving To Market Housing .............................................................................................. 16 1.12 Households Moving to Affordable Housing.......................................................................................... 16 1.13 Housing Needs of Disabled People....................................................................................................... 16 1.14 Housing Needs of Older People (aged 65+ years) ................................................................................ 16 1.15 Housing Needs of Black & Minority Ethnic Needs................................................................................ 18 1.16 Future Housing Demand....................................................................................................................... 18 1.17 Key Recommendations......................................................................................................................... 21 2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................23 2.1 Background and Context ...................................................................................................................... 23 2.2 Purpose, Aims and Objectives .............................................................................................................. 23 2.3 The Local Area ...................................................................................................................................... 24 2.4 SHMA Area Structure for Analysis ........................................................................................................ 25 2.5 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 26 2.6 Sampling ............................................................................................................................................... 26 2.7 Promotion............................................................................................................................................. 27 2.8 Survey Process and Response............................................................................................................... 27 2.9 Data Validity ......................................................................................................................................... 30 2.10 Survey Weighting.................................................................................................................................. 30 2.11 Guidance Model ................................................................................................................................... 31 2.12 Definitions ............................................................................................................................................ 31 2.13 Data Sources......................................................................................................................................... 31 2.14 Survey Household Data ........................................................................................................................ 32 3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ...........................................................................................................................33 3.1 Key Findings.......................................................................................................................................... 33 3.2 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 33 3.3 Education, Employment, Occupation and Work Place Data................................................................. 34 3.4 Incomes and Housing Costs.................................................................................................................. 36 3.5 Existing Households.............................................................................................................................. 37 3.6 Existing Moving Households................................................................................................................. 40 3.7 Concealed Households ......................................................................................................................... 41 4 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE.......................................................................................................................43 4.1 Key Findings.......................................................................................................................................... 43 4.2 Existing Population Profile.................................................................................................................... 43 4.3 Demographic Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 45 4.4 Population Projections ......................................................................................................................... 45 4.5 Age Structure Forecast 2011 ‐ 2035 ..................................................................................................... 46 4.6 Regional and National Change.............................................................................................................. 49 4.7 Forecast Change in Households............................................................................................................ 50 5 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ............................................................................................................51 5.1 Key Findings.......................................................................................................................................... 51 5.2 Current Housing in Northumberland.................................................................................................... 52 2 Northumberland County‐wide Housing Needs Survey ‐ 2012 5.3 Under and Over‐Occupation................................................................................................................. 55 5.4 Shared Facilities.................................................................................................................................... 57 5.5 Adequacy of Present Dwelling / Improvement Required..................................................................... 57 6 THE HOUSING MARKET.........................................................................................................................61 6.1 Key Findings.......................................................................................................................................... 61 6.2 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 61 6.3 The Current Market Outlook ................................................................................................................ 62 6.4 Housing Supply and Turnover............................................................................................................... 62 6.5 Current Prices ....................................................................................................................................... 62 6.6 Regional Picture.................................................................................................................................... 63 6.7 Average House Prices ........................................................................................................................... 63 6.8 Sales Transactions