RURAL Neets in POLAND

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND

2009/2019 OVERVIEW AUTHORS

Mateusz Smoter - [email protected] Institute for Structural Research - IBS

Image by studioyayo from Pixabay

This document is published by COST Action CA 18213: Rural NEET Youth Network: Modeling the risks underlying rural NEETs social exclusion.

©️ COST CA18213, December 2020.

Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged. Please cite this publication as “COST CA18213 Rural NEETs in Poland:

2009/2019 Overview. OVERVIEW IN POLAND: 2009/2019 RURAL NEETs

ISBN: 978-989-781-424-2

Visit: www.rnyobservatory.eu INDEX

1. CONTEXTUALIZATION 6

2. METHODOLOGICAL NOTE 8

3. DATA ANALYSIS 9

3. 1. Population and youth population 9

3. 2. Employment and unemployment 11

• Youth employment 11

• Youth unemployment 14

3. 3. Education 17

• Young people by educational attainment level 17

• Early School Leavers from Education and Training 19

3. 4. NEETs 20

• NEET rate 20

4. CONCLUSIONS 23

5. REFERENCES 25

6. IMPORTANT LINKS 26 RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW IN POLAND: 2009/2019 RURAL NEETs SUMMARY

The report outlines the evolution of the labour market situation of young people in Poland between 2009 and 2019. Particular attention was paid to describe how the situation has changed across different age subgroups and degree of urbanization. The analysis includes descriptive statistics of the selected labour market indicators (employment and unemployment rate, NEET rate) along with educational and population data extracted from the Eurostat public datasets.

The report shows that youth population in Poland has been declining over the past decade, especially in cities and rural areas. Labour market situation of young Poles worsened in the aftermath of financial and economic crisis. Since 2013 is has improved considerably. In 2019, the unemployment rate was below the pre-recession level and the lowest since the political and economic transformation. The pattern of labour market situation evolution was similar across all age subgroups and degrees of urbanisation, although those from the younger subgroups were more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. In 2019, the difference between rural and urban areas in the unemployment level was minor. The employment rate and the NEET rate, however, was clearly higher in cities which suggests that many of those living in towns and rural areas remain outside the labour force. The level of school dropouts among youth is one of the lowest in the EU and has been relatively stable over the past decade. It is slightly higher in towns and rural areas than in cities, but the difference is not significant. RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW IN POLAND: 2009/2019 RURAL NEETs PODSUMOWANIE

W raporcie opisano sytuację młodych osób w Polsce na rynku pracy w latach 2009-2019. Szczególną uwagę zwrócono na porównanie zmian zachodzących na obszarach miejskich i wiejskich oraz wśród różnych grup wieku. Raport sporządzono na podstawie analizy główn- ych wskaźników rynku pracy (wskaźnika zatrudnienia, stopy bezrobocia, wskaźnika NEET) oraz wybranych danych dotyczących edukacji i liczby ludności. Wszystkie dane pochodzą z ogólnodostępnych baz Eurostatu.

Raport pokazuje, że w ciągu ostatniej dekady populacja młodych osób w Polsce spadła, zwłaszcza w dużych miastach i na wsi. Sytuacja młodych osób na rynku pracy pogorszyła się w następstwie kryzysu gospodarczego, jednak od 2013 roku ulega poprawie. W 2019 roku stopa bezrobocia osiągnęła poziom sprzed recesji i była najniższa od czasu trans- formacji ustrojowej i gospodarczej. Trajektoria zmian była zbliżona dla wszystkich grup wieku i stopni urbanizacji, choć osoby młodsze w większym stopniu reagowały na zmiany gospodarcze. W 2019 roku stopa bezrobocia była niska zarówno na obszarach miejskich, jak i wiejskich. Poziom zatrudnienia i wskaźnik NEET były jednak wyraźnie wyższe w miastach, co sugeruje, że część młodych osób mieszkających w małych miejscowościach i na obszarach wiejskich pozostaje poza siłą roboczą. Odsetek młodych osób przedwcześnie kończących edukację znajduje się wśród najniższych w UE i utrzymuje się na stosunkowo stabilnym poziomie od dziesięciu lat. W 2019 r. był nieco wyższy na obszarach wiejskich niż miejskich, ale różnica nie była znaczna. RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW IN POLAND: 2009/2019 RURAL NEETs bachelor’s degree andatwo-year master’s degree. the Bologna framework which means that most programmes are dividedinto a three-year hairdresser; baker; cook;and,accountantetc. Regarding tertiary education, Poland follows the labourmarket. Thelatter teach occupations suchas:mechanic;electronic specialist; prepare students for entry into higher education and other forms of entry directly into (liceum), years. Afterwards, pupilsstart uppersecondaryeducation inageneral secondaryschool they begin the1st gradeofthefull-timecompulsoryprimaryschoolingwhichlasts for 8 Compulsory education inPoland starts whenchildren reach theage ofsix.Ayear later, agencies andlocalgovernments. from national andEuropean fundswhichare at thedisposalofministries, governmental cies bour andTechnology for Youth Guarantee scheme).Local governments have competen- Social Policy for employment and social issues;Ministry La- ofEconomicDevelopment, and HigherEducation for highereducation andresearch; Ministry ofFamily, Labourand different ministries (e.g., Ministry ofNational Education for education; Ministry ofScience There isnosingularcentrallevel authorityresponsible for youth policy. Itisprovided by local self-governments. Local authoritiesare elected ingeneral elections. lised -asubstantial partofpublictasks andserviceshave beendevolved to regional and (gminas) (Statistics Poland, 2020). In general, the public management system is decentra- further dividedinto 380counties(powiats), andthese,inturn,into 2477 municipalities Poland isaunitaryrepublic. Itsterritory isdividedinto 16 regions (voivodships); theseare 38 millionpeople.Around 60%ofthepopulacelive inurbanareas (Statistics Poland, 2020). Czech Republic to theSouth,andGermany to theWest. Thecountryispopulated by over sia’s Kaliningrad Oblast Slovakia to theNorth,BelarusandUkraineto theEast, andthe Poland islocated inCentralEurope. Itisbordered by seven countries-LithuaniaandRus 1. CONTEXTUALIZATION filed of funding primarily general a NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 technical for secondary in activities the fields school school related of Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 (technikum), education, (liceum to youth social profilowane). a policy. vocational policy Projects and school Overall, culture. www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] and (szkoła general programmes There zawodowa) secondary is no single are or financed schools source a pro- 6

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW (defined a personcanbecomeanemployee, according to theLabourCode.Juvenile employees Under Polish law, thelegal age ofmajority is attained at 18 years. Thisisalsotheage when from in thelabourmarket. TheYouth Guarantee schemeisopento young peopleaged 15to 29 which istheEU’s key programme addressed to young peopleintending to supportthem As far asemployment issuesare concerned,Poland isimplementingtheYouth Guarantee education; socialwelfare; employment; livingconditions;and,healthcare. for 2003-2012” whichdetermined thedirections ofPolish youth policyinsuchareas as: rent legal acts. Before accessionto theEU,Poland adopted the“State Strategy for Youth ting inPoland. Youth-related regulations are fragmented andscattered inbetween diffe- yment. TheYG schemeisregulated inthe“Youth Guarantee implementation Plan”. Youth Guarantee supplementsassist withpoliciesaimedat counteracting youth unemplo- nal andEUfunds(mainlytheEuropean SocialFundandtheYouth Employment Initiative). Currently, the labourinspector andanoccupational medicaldoctor. paration orregular, paidwork, butonlyincaseoflightjobswhichshouldbeaccepted by the as NEET NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 there being group is 15 no to (not one 18 years official in Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 education, old) document can employment take or up strategy employment or training). focusing www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] in a It on form is young financed of vocational people from opera- natio- pre- 7

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW online encyclopaedia. and key youth policiesbasedonarelevant literature review andtheYouth WikiEuropean information concerningthePolish social,economicandpoliticalsituation inthelast decades The report alsoincludesanintroductory contextualisation section withthemost relevant riod andisexpressed inpercentage terms. points (pp). Relative change expresses thechange ofavalue ofanindicator inanearlierpe- simple difference intheindicator over two periodsintimeandisexpressed inpercentage main timepointsthat were selected –2009, 2013 and 2019. Absolute change refers to the in different timeperiods,absolute andrelative change were calculated consideringthethree In additionto adescriptive analysis, inorder to compare data mainchanges andcontinuities Selected indicators were extracted from thedifferent databases according to two criteria: analysed inthisreport are from thefollowing Eurostat database: of the Rural NEETYouth Network in the Eurostat platform. The main data presented and The Polish national report usesinformation gathered by theNational Reports Editorial Team 2. METHODOLOGICAL NOTE • • • • and red 3dates -2009-2013-2019 -inorder to capture theimpact oftheeconomic education, training and employment for young people. The analysis mainly cove- period of time to capture themainchanges andcontinuities in trajectories of Time crisis impact onthesegroups. young adult’s data (age groups 30-34and35-39) inorder to capture theextent of cator (15-24; 15-29; 15-34;and15-39). Whenever possible,age range alsocovered Age group: age group range varies accordingly to thedata available ineachindi- 2012/2013. NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 [edat_lfs_9913]; [edat_lfse_30]; [edat_lfse_29] EU LabourForce Survey (EU-LFS):[lfst_r_pgauwsc]; [lfst_r_ergau]; [lfst_r_urgau]; Population Statistics: [yth_demo_020] financial range: the crisis previous Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 that hit decade Europe (2009-2019) and that, in most in www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] order countries, to have reached a sufficiently its peak long in 8

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: own elaboration basedonEurostat (lfst_r_pgauwsc). Data extracted on12.05.2020. Chart 1.Total youth population aged 15to 24 inPoland in2009-2019 by degree ofurbanisation pp, from 23.4% to 17.1%. Thedeclineoccurred across allage subgroups ofyoung people. rall population aswell. Between 2011 and2019, theyouth population ratio dropped by 6.3 the numberofyoung peoplehasbeendecreasing, buttheproportion ofyouth intheove - experienced a slight increase in the number of young people. Table 1shows that not only 2019. The trend was similar for cities and rural areas. Conversely, small towns and suburbs been decreasing graduallyover thepast decade,from 5.2millionin2009 to 3.5millionin 2009 and2019 by degree ofurbanisation. Itshows that thenumberofyoung peoplehas Chart 1 illustrates the changes in the population of young Poles aged 15 to 24 between 3. 1.Population andyouthpopulation 3. DATA ANALYSIS 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000 0 NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 1950100 2501800 5208500 756600 2009 2010 Overall 2011 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 Cities 2012 1010300 1414000 2056900 4481200 2013 Townssuburbs and 2014 2015 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 2016 Rural areas Rural 2017 2018 1108400 3536900 1529200 899300 2019 9

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: Eurostat: yth_demo_020 –data extracted in27.06.20 by age groups Table 1.Ratio of youth population andabsolute andrelative change inPoland (2009-2013, 2013-2019 and2009-2019) Overall 20-24 25-29 15-19 NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 23.40% 6.90% 8.50% 2009 8.10% 20.90% 5.80% 7.00% 8.10% 2013 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 5.50% 4.80% 6.80% 17.10% 2019 -1.10% pp(-15.94%) -1.10% pp(-13.58%) -0.40% pp(-4.71%) -2.50 pp(-10.68%) Absolute change (relative change 2009-2013) 2009-2013 -1.30% pp(-16.05%) -3.80% pp(-18.18%) -1.50% pp(-21.43%) -1.00% pp(-17.24%) www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] Absolute change (relative change 2013-2019) 2013-2019 -1.70% pp(-20.00%) -2.60% pp(-32.10%) -2.10% pp(-30.43%) Absolute change (relative change 2009-2019) 2009-2019 -6.30% pp (-26.92%) 10

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: own elaboration basedonEurostat (lfst_r_ergau). Data extracted on29.04.2020. Chart 2.Employment rate of peopleaged 15to 39 between 2009 and2019 by degree of urbanisation the decrease in theemployment rate between 2009 and2013 from 59.5% to 59.1% causedby pp duringthat period,from 59.5% to 66.5%. We canobserve two distinct phases:aslight 2009 and 2019 by degree of urbanisation. Overall, the employment level increased by 7.0 Chart 2shows thechanges intheemployment rate ofpeopleaged 15to 39 between 3. 2.1.Youth employment 3. 2.Employment andUnemployment across alldegrees ofurbanisation. and increase in employment level up to 66.5% in 2019. The pattern of change was similar 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 50% financial 59,5% 58,8% 56,8% 62,5% 2009 NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 and 2010 economic 2011 Overall Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 crisis 2012 followed Cities Cities 55,7% 59,0% 63,1% 2013 by Townssuburbs and 2014 an improvement 2015 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 2016 ua ra areas Rural of the 2017 economic 2018 situation 71,6% 66,5% 64,4% 63,2% 2019 11

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW in cities,from 58.8%to 64.4% intowns andsuburbs,from 56.8% to 63.2%inruralareas. Between 2009 and2019 itincreased across alldegrees ofurbanisation –from 62.5% to 71.6% The employment rate ishigherincities(71.6%) thanintowns (64.4%) andruralareas (63.2%). people aged 20 to 24 (increasing by 14.5pp,from 41.0% in2013 to 55.5%in2019). followed by anincrease since2013. Thelabourmarket situation improved particularlyfor All age subgroups experienced adecrease inemployment levels between 2009 and2013, ged from 4.9% among people inthe15-19age range to 83.0% amongthoseaged 30to 34. Table 2shows that theemployment level ispositively associated withage. In2019, itran- NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 12

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: own elaboration basedonEurostat (lfst_r_ergau). Data extracted on29.04.2020. by age groups anddegree ofurbanisation Table 2.Youth employment rate andabsolute andrelative change inPoland (2009-2013, 2013-2019 and2009-2019) Rural areas Towns and suburbs 30-34 30-34 30-34 30-34 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 Cities 15-19 15-19 15-19 15-19 Total NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 50.00% 80.90% 83.50% 46.60% 74.80% 78.20% 41.80% 77.70% 81.90% 75.00% 71.80% 46.10% 3.20% 5.60% 7.20% 2009 4.10% 44.50% 36.20% 78.50% 74.80% 82.70% 73.00% 77.30% 72.70% 41.60% 69.10% 41.00% 78.10% 5.30% 3.80% 4.20% 2.70% 2013 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 55.00% 83.00% 55.50% 80.20% 84.40% 58.20% 52.30% 79.50% 79.60% 76.60% 87.80% 77.10% 4.00% 5.60% 4.90% 5.10% 2019 -1.40 pp(-25.00%) -5.60 pp(-13.40%) -5.00 pp(-10.73%) -1.90 pp(-26.39%) -5.50 pp(-11.00%) -0.80 pp(-0.96%) -3.80 pp(-4.64%) -1.40 pp(-34.15%) -2.00 pp(-2.67%) -2.40 pp(-2.97%) -2.90 pp(-3.73%) -5.10 pp(-11.06%) -2.70 pp(-3.76%) -0.90 pp(-1.15%) Absolute change -2.10 pp(-2.81%) 0.60 pp(18.75%) (relative change 2009-2013) 2009-2013 -0.20 pp(-3.77%) 14.50 pp(35.37%) 13.70 pp(30.79%) www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 16.10 pp(44.48%) 13.40 pp(32.21%) Absolute change 7.50 pp(10.85%) 0.70 pp(16.67%) 6.50 pp(8.90%) 1.80 pp(47.37%) 4.40 pp(6.05%) 4.80 pp(6.42%) (relative change 1.30 pp(48.15%) 4.50 pp(5.73%) 2.10 pp(2.69%) 5.10 pp(6.17%) 7.10 pp(9.18%) 2013-2019) 2013-2019 -0.70 pp(-12.50%) -2.10 pp(-29.17%) -0.10 pp(-2.44%) -1.70 pp(-2.08%) 2.40 pp(75.00%) Absolute change 9.40 pp(20.39%) 10.50 pp(25.12%) 8.20 pp(16.40%) 8.40 pp(18.03%) 4.50 pp(6.00%) 4.80 pp(6.69%) (relative change 2.30 pp(3.07%) 6.20 pp(7.93%) 2.10 pp(2.60%) 4.30 pp(5.15%) 1.90 pp(2.45%) 2009-2019) 2009-2019 13

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW rate from 3.5ppto 1.8ppand3.2to 1.3pprespectively between 2013 and2019. with cities in recent years and managed to reduce the difference in the unemployment close to that number(4.8% and5.3% respectively). Ruralareas andtowns have caughtup minor. Thelowest unemployment rate was incities(3.5%),yet towns andruralareas were In 2019, the difference in the unemployment rate between cities, towns and rural areas was the unemployment rate by around 17ppbetween 2013 and2019). They alsoexperienced thegreatest improvement duringtherecovery phase(a decrease in by therecession (an increase intheunemployment rate by 9.6 ppand6.5 pprespectively). 20-24) llowed by adecrease between 2013 and2019. People intheyounger subgroups (15-19and subgroups witnessedanincrease intheunemployment levels between 2009 and2013, fo- 19.2% amongpeopleinthe15-19age range to 3.0% amongthoseaged 30to 34.Allage Table 3shows that unemployment isnegatively associated withage. In2019, itranged from ployment rate dropped to 4.5%in2019. ce then, the labour market situation of young people has been improving and theunem- economic crisistheunemployment rate increased from 9.2% in2009 to 12.9% in2013. Sin- and Chart 3 shows the unemployment rate of people aged 15 to 39 inPoland, between 2009 3. 2.Youth unemployment 2019, were NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 by the particularly degree of vulnerable urbanisation. Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 to the It shows labour that market in the fluctuations. www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] aftermath of They the were financial hit hard and 14

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Chart 3.Unemployment rate ofpeopleaged 15to 39 inPoland between 2009 and2019 by degree ofurbanisation Source: own elaboration basedonEurostat (lfst_r_urgau). Data extractedon 29.04.2020. 10% 12% 14% 16% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10,1% 11,7% 8,7% NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 2009 9,2% 2010 Overall 2011 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 2012 Cities Cities 13,7% 10,5% 12,9% 14,6% 2013 Townssuburbs and 2014 2015 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 2016 ua ra areas Rural 2017 2018 2019 3,5% 4,5% 4,8% 5,3% 15

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: own elaboration basedonEurostat (lfst_r_urgau). Data extracted on29.04.2020 2019) by age groups anddegree ofurbanisation Table 3.Youth unemployment rate andabsolute andrelative change inPoland (2009-2013, 2013-2019 and2009- Rural areas Towns and suburbs 30-34 30-34 30-34 30-34 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 Cities 15-19 15-19 15-19 15-19 Total NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 30.50% 10.00% 19.50% 19.80% 27.40% 25.10% 21.30% 17.90% 31.70% 5.00% 6.00% 9.80% 8.30% 6.50% 11.30% 2009 7.50%

39.00% 43.50% 33.50% 26.30% 28.20% 22.20% 37.00% 27.50% 13.60% 15.20% 8.00% 9.50% 8.90% 15.10% 8.70% 11.10% 2013

Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 20.60% 26.00% 10.50% 19.20% 9.00% 3.00% 5.40% 4.80% 4.40% 3.50% 2.30% 3.20% 7.00% 9.70% 3.70% 2019

. 9.60 pp(35.04%) 6.50 pp(32.83%) 2.20 pp(33.85%) 3.80 pp(38.78%) Absolute change 13.00% (42.62%) (relative change 5.20% (52.00%) 3.90% (78.00%) 4.30% (24.02%) 2.00% (33.33%) 3.80% (33.63%) 6.90% (32.39%) 8.40% (33.47%) 2.00% (26.67%) 7.30% (23.03%) 2.80% (33.73%) 8.00% (41.03%) 2009-2013) 2009-2013

-18.50 pp(-65.60%) -13.00 pp(-33.33%) -15.20 pp(-68.47%) -17.30 pp(-65.78%) -10.30 pp(-68.21%) -5.70 pp(-64.04%) -12.90 pp(-38.51%) -9.80 pp(-64.47%) -17.00 pp(-61.82%) -5.70 pp(-65.52%) -9.20 pp(-67.65%) -5.80 pp(-61.05%) -7.60 pp(-68.47%) -17.80 pp(-48.11%) -5.70 pp(-71.25%) www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] Absolute change (relative change 2013-2019) 2013-2019

. -10.90 pp(-60.89%) -10.80 pp(-54.55%) -4.60 pp(-46.00%) -11.60 pp(-54.46%) -3.50 pp(-53.85%) -3.80 pp(-50.67%) -8.20 pp(-29.93%) -4.80 pp(-57.83%) -6.50 pp(-57.52%) -1.80 pp(-36.00%) -5.40 pp(-55.10%) -9.00 pp(-46.15%) -4.50 pp(-17.93%) -3.70 pp(-61.67%) -5.70 pp(-17.98%) Absolute change (relative change 2009-2019) 2009-2019

. 16

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW the and degree ofurbanisation between 2009 and2019 inPoland. Itshows that in2019, 47%of Table 4describesyoung peopleaged 15to 24 by educational attainment (ISCEDlevels) 3. 1.Young peopleby educationalattainmentlevel 3. Education ders increased by 36% between 2009 and 2019 (from 7.5% to 10.2%). noted themost remarkable improvement inthis regard –theshare ofuniversity degree hol- degree (10.2%) thanthoselivingintowns (4.5%) andruralareas (5.6%). Cityinhabitantsalso In 2019, young peoplelivingincitieswere around two timesmore likely to holdatertiary postpone entryinto thelabourmarket. young sing andreached alevel of6.8% in2019. Itseems that asaresponse to theeconomiccrisis, popularity increased from 5.6% to 7.8% between 2009 and2013 andthenstarted decrea- the previous decade,however, somevariation occurred inthecaseoftertiary education. Its There were noconsiderablechanges intheeducational structure at theNational level over tertiary degree level qualifications (ISCED5-8). 46.2% 15-24 held people NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 year-olds upper were or more held post-secondary willing lower Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 secondary to continue degree degree education level

qualifications level to qualifications improve www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] (ISCED their or qualifications 3-4), below and (ISCED 6.8% and/or 0-2), held 17

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: own elaboration basedonEurostat (edat_lfs_9913). Data extracted on29.04.2020. (2009-2013, 2013-2019, 2009-2019) by degree ofurbanisation Table 4.Educational attainment (ISCEDlevels) ofyoung peopleaged 15-24 inPoland andabsolute andrelative change Rural areas Towns and ISCED 0-2 ISCED 0-2 ISCED 0-2 ISCED 0-2 ISCED 5-8 ISCED 5-8 ISCED 5-8 ISCED 5-8 ISCED 3-4 ISCED 3-4 ISCED 3-4 ISCED 3-4 suburbs Country Cities NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 40.50% 52.00% 48.60% 49.30% 45.80% 47.50% 48.10% 46.10% 4.40% 5.60% 4.60% 2009 7.50%

45.90% 49.50% 48.30% 45.30% 46.90% 45.20% 39.70% 47.20% 10.80% 5.80% 7.80% 7.70% 2013

Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 42.00% 53.50% 46.20% 42.20% 47.00% 46.70% 47.60% 47.70% 10.20% 4.50% 5.60% 6.80% 2019

-0.30 pp(-0.63%) -0.20 pp(-0.43%) -2.90 pp(-6.03%) -0.50 pp(-1.09%) -0.80 pp(-1.98%) -1.00 pp(-2.03%) -1.70 pp(-3.50%) -2.50 pp(-4.81%) 3.30 pp(44.00%) 3.30 pp(75.00%) 2.20 pp(39.29%) Absolute change 1.20 pp(26.09%) (relative change 2009-2013) 2009-2013

-3.20 pp(-41.56%) -0.60 pp(-5.56%) -0.20 pp(-3.45%) -1.00 pp(-12.82%) -3.20 pp(-7.08%) -1.90 pp(-3.84%) -0.70 pp(-1.49%) -1.60 pp(-3.31%) www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] Absolute change 6.30 pp(13.35%) 2.50 pp(6.30%) -1.70 pp(3.75%) (relative change 1.80 pp(3.92%) 2013-2019) 2013-2019

-4.40 pp(-8.46%) -2.40 pp(-4.94%) -6.10 pp(-12.68%) -2.60 pp(-5.27%) Absolute change 2.70 pp(36.00%) 6.00 pp(12.63%) (relative change 1.20 pp(21.43%) 1.00 pp(21.74%) 1.60 pp(3.47%) 1.70 pp(4.20%) 0.10 pp(2.27%) 1.20 pp(2.62%) 2009-2019) 2009-2019

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: own elaborationbased onEurostat (edat_lfse_30). Dataextracted on20.04.2020. Chart 4.EarlySchoolLeavers from Education andTraining inPoland between 2009 and2019 by degree ofurbanisation towns andsuburbsby 2.1 ppandincitiesby 0.2 pp. ten years –itdecreased overall by 0.1 pp,falling inruralareas by 1.2pp,whileincreasing in respectively) thanincities(4.0%). TheESLETrate hasbeenrelatively stable over thepast leavers. Thelevel ofdropouts was slightlyhigherintowns andruralareas (6.3% and5.6% by degree ofurbanisation. In2019, 5.3% ofyoung Poles couldbeconsidered asearlyschool proportion ofEarlyLeavers from Education andTraining (ESLET)between 2009 and2019 increase educational participation andreduce earlyschoolleaving. Chart4displays the Education increases one’s opportunities in thelabourmarket. Therefore, countriesseekto 3. 2.EarlySchoolLeavers fromEducationandTraining 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2009 3,8% 4,2% 5,3% 6,8% NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 2010 2011 Overall Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 2012 Cities Cities 2013 Townssuburbs and 2014 2015 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 2016 ua ra areas Rural 2017 2018 2019 4,0% 5,2% 5,6% 6,3% 19

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: Eurostat (edat_lfse_36) –data extracted in20.06.2020 did not converge withcities. The gaphasbeenquite stable for ten years, whichmeansthat ruralareas andsmalltowns gap between citiesandruralareas reached almost 11 pp (11.1% incities vs. 21.8% in ruralareas). groups. Thedifference was especiallyvisibleinthe25-29 age group, inwhichtheNEETrate In 2019, ruralareas andtowns displayed higherNEETrates thancitiesacross allage sub- 2013 to 2019. experienced anincrease intheNEETrate between 2009 and2013 andadecrease between 2.3% intheyoungest age group (15-19) to 17.7% amongthoseaged 25to 29. Allage subgroups Table 6shows that theNEETrate isnegatively associated withage. In2019, itvaried from was similaracross alllevels ofurbanisation. 14% to 16% andsincethenhasbeensteadily decreasing, reaching 12.0% in2019. Thispattern urbanisation over thelast ten years. Between 2009 and2013, theNEETrate increased from Chart 5 shows the proportion of NEETs among young people aged 15 to 29 by the degree of 3. 4.1.NEET rate 3. 4.NEETs NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 20

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Chart 5.NEETrate amongyoung peopleaged 15to 29 inPoland between 2009 and2019 by degree ofurbanisation Source: own elaboration basedonEurostat (edat_lfse_29). Data extracted on29.04.2020. 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 11,0% 13,5% 14,0% 16,7% 2009 NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 2010 2011 Overall Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 2012 Cities Cities 11,7% 16,2% 19,7% 2013 Townssuburbs and 2014 2015 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 2016 ua ra areas Rural 2017 2018 2019 14,2% 12,0% 13,6% 7,9% 21

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW Source: own elaboration basedon Eurostat (edat_lfse_29). Data extracted on29.04.2020. and by degree ofurbanisation Table 6. NEETrate inPoland andabsolute andrelative change (2009-2013, 2013-2019, 2009-2019) by age subgroups Rural areas Towns and suburbs Country Overall Overall Overall Overall Overall 30-34 30-34 30-34 30-34 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 Cities 15-19 15-19 15-19 15-19 NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 20.60% 20.50% 25.30% 15.50% 15.80% 14.50% 15.60% 18.30% 21.60% 12.30% 21.20% 17.40% 17.90% 4.00% 3.50% 3.40% 11.30% 15.10% 2009 16.10% 2.30% 15.10% 20.90% 20.50% 25.40% 24.40% 23.70% 27.90% 22.70% 19.00% 21.00% 16.50% 19.40% 17.40% 17.40% 17.70% 3.60% 16.10% 13.10% 11.70% 3.70% 4.10% 3.10% 2013 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 20.00% 20.90% 15.50% 15.80% 16.50% 15.30% 16.50% 19.30% 21.80% 13.40% 13.40% 13.30% 17.70% 11.50% 8.30% 2.60% 2.30% 2.30% 11.10% 9.10% 1.70% 2019 -0.30 pp(-8.82%) 3.30 pp(20.50%) 4.80 pp(23.30%) 3.60 pp(20.69%) 3.20 pp(20.25%) 3.20 pp(22.07%) Absolute change 2.60 pp(10.28%) 2.80 pp(12.96%) 1.30 pp(56.52%) 3.00 pp(16.76%) 2.20 pp(12.02%) 2.30 pp(15.23%) 2.30 pp(15.23%) 2.20 pp(10.73%) 0.80 pp(6.50%) 0.40 pp(3.54%) 0.60 pp(3.87%) (relative change 2.50 pp(11.79%) 0.90 pp(5.77%) 0.10 pp(2.50%) 0.20 pp(5.71%) 2009-2013) 2009-2013

-4.00 pp(-30.53%) -5.00 pp(-22.03%) -4.00 pp(-22.99%) -4.00 pp(-22.99%) -3.40 pp(-29.06%) -9.90 pp(-38.98%) -4.60 pp(-28.57%) -5.40 pp(-32.73%) -4.40 pp(-18.03%) -5.10 pp(-24.40%) -1.50 pp(-36.59%) -2.40 pp(-13.56%) -1.40 pp(-37.84%) -4.00 pp(-19.51%) -1.40 pp(-45.16%) -6.10 pp(-21.86%) -2.50 pp(-13.16%) -6.10 pp(-31.44%) -2.80 pp(-11.81%) -1.30 pp(-36.11%) www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] -1.70 pp(-8.10%) Absolute change (relative change 2013-2019) 2013-2019

-3.00 pp(-26.55%) -4.50 pp(-28.85%) -3.20 pp(-26.02%) -1.40 pp(-35.00%) -1.70 pp(-50.00%) -4.00 pp(-25.81%) -3.50 pp(-13.83%) -2.80 pp(-13.66%) -1.20 pp(-34.29%) -5.10 pp(-24.76%) -2.80 pp(-17.39%) -0.30 pp(-1.42%) -1.80 pp(-9.84%) Absolute change -1.70 pp(-11.26%) -1.70 pp(-11.26%) -2.10 pp(-11.73%) 0.00 pp(0.00%) -1.60 pp(-7.41%) 0.80 pp(5.52%) 1.90 pp(10.92%) (relative change 0.70 pp(4.43%) 2009-2019) 2009-2019

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW cession Youth employment and unemployment. population to thesuburbswithinsuburbanisation processes. slight increase inthenumberofyoung people,most probably dueto themigration ofurban The trend was similarfor cities andruralareas. Onlysmalltowns andsuburbsexperienced a ge-scale labouremigration ofyounger Poles to other EUcountriesafter joiningtheEUin 2004. the past decadeacross allage subgroups. Thisismainlydueto alow birthrate andalar- number ofyoung peopleandtheyouth population ratio hasbeengraduallydecreasing over Population. Like many European countries,Poland hasanoticeably ageing demographic. The 4. CONCLUSIONS were below, 46% heldanupperorpost-secondary degree, and7%heldatertiary degree. There Educational attainment. InPoland, 47%ofyoung peopleheldalower secondarydegree or is not considerable. The level ofdropouts isslightlyhigherintowns andruralareas thanincities,butthedifference the lowest intheEU(European Union,2019). Ithasbeenrelatively stable over thepast decade. Early SchoolLeavers from Education andTraining. TheESLETrate inPoland is5.3%, oneof areas remain outsidethelabourforce. however, was clearlyhigherincitieswhichsuggests that many ofthoselivingintowns andrural the unemployment rate was minoracross various levels ofurbanisation. Theemployment rate, increase inthefuture. in education. Ifthistrend continuestheeducational gapbetween citiesandruralareas may gree thanthoselivingintowns andruralareas. Citiesalsowitnessedthegreatest improvement and 2019. Young peopleliving in citiesare around two timesmore likely to holdauniversity de- ger transformation undergone intheimmediate aftermath ofcommunism. People from theyoun- rrently, itisbelow thepre-recession level andthelowest sincethepoliticalandeconomic subgroups no period, significant NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 were reaching changes more a vulnerable peak in Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 the in 2013. educational to labour Since Theyouth unemployment increased duringthere- then market structure it has fluctuations. at been the www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] country decreasing In 2019, level significantly. the between difference 2009 Cu- 23 in

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW NEET than those living in cities. NEET thanthoselivingincities. people livinginsmalltowns andruralareas are considerablymore vulnerableto becoming 2020). AlthoughtheNEETrate hasfallen inrecent years across alllevels ofurbanisation, young share ofeconomically inactive NEETs inPoland hasbeenstable over thepast decade(Smoter, people. Theirlabourmarket status israther independentoftheconditioneconomy. The This is because the NEET group in Poland is composed mainly of economically inactive young the decline in the NEET rate was not as considerable as the decline in the unemployment rate. a peakin2013, followed by adecrease duringtherecovery period.What isinteresting isthat all levels ofurbanisation. There were two phases–anincrease duringtherecession periodwith NEETs. Overall, theNEETrate decreased between 2009 and2019 inallage groups andacross NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 24

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW ci-oraz-ruch-naturalny-w-przekroju-terytorialnym-stan-w-dniu-30-06-2020,6,28.html https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ludnosc/ludnosc/ludnosc-stan-i-struktura-ludnos- territorial division.Retrieved October 14,2020, from Statistics Poland. (2020). Population. Sizeandstructure andvitalstatistics inPoland by https://ibs.org.pl/app/uploads/2020/01/IBS-Policy-Paper-03-2019-NEETs_final_EN.pdf licy Paper 03/2019. Retrieved October 12,2020, from Smoter, M. (2019). Not studying or working. A challenge for public policy?. Warsaw: IBS Po- education_and_training#Overview from Eurostat. (2020). Earlyleavers from education andtraining.Retrieved October 15,2020, tion-and-training-monitor-2019-poland-report_en https://ec.europa.eu/education/resources-and-tools/document-library/educa- blications OfficeoftheEuropean Union.Retrieved October 14,2020, from European Union. (2019). Education and Training Poland Monitor: Report. Luxembourg: Pu- 5. REFERENCES https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Early_leavers_from_ NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 25

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW WDU19910950425/U/D19910425Lj.pdf Law onschooleducation http://isap.sejm.gov.pl/isap.nsf/download.xsp/ The labourcodehttp://isap.sejm.gov.pl/isap.nsf/DocDetails.xsp?id=WDU19740240141 d=1161&langId=en&intPageId=3348 Youth Guarantee countryfichefor Poland https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catI- docId=16338&langId=e Youth Guarantee implementation planinPoland http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?- en/content/youthwiki/overview-poland Youth wiki:national youth policiesinPoland https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-policies/ 6. IMPORTANT LINKS NEETs socialexclusion Modeling therisksunderlyingrural Rural NEET Youth Network: COST Action CA18213 Framework Programme oftheEuropean Union Funded by theHorizon2020 www.rnyobservatory.eu - [email protected] 26

RURAL NEETs IN POLAND: 2009/2019 OVERVIEW