medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.21.20158923; this version posted July 22, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 1 Regional variability in time-varying transmission 2 potential of COVID-19 in South Korea 3 Eunha Shim 1,* and Gerardo Chowell 2 4 1 Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, 369 Sangdoro, Dongjak-Gu, Seoul, 06978, Republic of 5 Korea;
[email protected] 6 2 Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, 7 30303, USA;
[email protected] 8 * Correspondence:
[email protected] 9 Abstract: In South Korea, the total number of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is 10 13,711 including 293 deaths as of July 18, 2020. To examine the change of the growth rate of the 11 outbreak, we present estimates of the transmissibility of COVID-19 in the four most affected regions 12 in the country: Seoul, Gyeonggi Province, Gyeongbuk Province, and Daegu. The daily confirmed 13 COVID-19 cases in these regions were extracted from publicly available sources. We estimated the 14 time-varying reproduction numbers in these regions by using the renewable equation determined by 15 the serial interval of COVID-19. In Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, the first major peak of COVID-19 16 occurred in early March, with the estimated reproduction number in February being as high as 4.24 17 and 8.86, respectively.