Main Messages

POVERTY IN A RISING AFRICA AFRICAPOVERTY POVERTY REPORT IN A RISING AFRICA

AFRICA POVERTY REPORT

frica experienced robust economic comparability into account, only 27 out of 48 growth over the past two decades, countries had at least two surveys from 1990 A growing at an average annual rate of to 2012 with which to track poverty trends. 4.5 percent. Did this growth lead to substan- Quality and comparability make monitor- tial improvements in well-being? Did house- ing poverty in the region a challenge. One sur- hold income rise and poverty fall? Did other vey of Nigeria’s poverty rate in 2010 estimated dimensions of well-being, including education, the figure at 26 percent; another, conducted health, physical security, and self-determina- the same year, put the figure at 53 percent. tion, improve? Did all countries and popula- With 20 percent of Africa’s population in tion groups benefit equally, or did progress Nigeria, this discrepancy makes a big differ- come at the expense of rising inequality? ence in the region. Other data needed to esti- The answers have been unclear, in part mate poverty trends (such as data on price because poverty data on Africa are weak. changes, which are used to convert consump- This report reviews the evidence and provides tion values to the benchmark year of the global a unique analysis of the underlying data. It is poverty line) also face critical deficiencies. the first of a two-part volume on poverty in Insufficient funding and low capacity Africa (the second report will explore how to only partly explain the weakness of pov- accelerate poverty reduction in the region). erty statistics in Africa. Prevailing political arrangements often favor less (or less autono- Poverty data on Africa are weak and mous) funding for statistics. In some coun- tries donor financing has replaced domestic need strengthening financing, but the interests of donors are Comparable, good-quality household con- not always aligned with the interests of sumption surveys conducted at regular inter- governments. Alternative financing models vals are the building blocks for measuring are needed. Regional cooperation and peer monetary poverty and inequality. Tracking learning, as well as clearer international stan- poverty in Africa is difficult because the data dards for poverty measurement, could help are deficient on all three counts. improve technical quality and consistency. On average, countries in Africa conducted Better data can lead to better deci- 3.8 consumption surveys since 1990 (about sions and better lives. The Program for the half as many as the rest of the develop- Improvement of Surveys and the Measure- ing world), and only 1.6 of them were com- ment of Living Conditions in Latin America parable (map 1). In 2012 only 25 out of 48 and the Caribbean (known by its acronym in countries had conducted at least two con- Spanish, MECOVI) provides a compelling sumption surveys over the past decade. Taking model for achieving better poverty data. MAIN MESSAGES POVERTY IN A RISING AFRICA AFRICA POVERTY REPORT

MAP 1 Lack of comparable surveys in Africa makes it difficult to measure poverty trends

Cabo Mauritania Verde Mali Niger Senegal Sudan Eritrea The Gambia Chad Guinea-Bissau Burkina Faso Guinea Benin Nigeria Côte Ethiopia Sierra Leone d’Ivoire Ghana Central African South Sudan Republic Liberia Somalia Togo Cameroon Equatorial Guinea Uganda São Tomé and PrincípePríncipe Rep. of Kenya Gabon Congo Rwanda Dem. Rep. of Burundi Congo Tanzania Seychelles

Comoros Number of comparable surveys conducted, Angola 1990–2012 Malawi 0 or 1 survey (9 countries) Zambia No comparable surveys (12 countries) Mozambique 2 comparable surveys (17 countries) Zimbabwe Madagascar Mauritius More than 2 comparable surveys (10 countries) Namibia Botswana

Swaziland

South Lesotho Africa

IBRD 41865 SEPTEMBER 2015 Source: World Bank data.

IBRD 41865 PovertySEPTEMBER 2015 in Africa may be lower than optimistic alternative scenario, however, current estimates suggest, but more there were many more poor people in Africa people are poor today than in 1990 in 2012 than in 1990 (more than 330 mil- lion, up from about 280 million), as a result According to World Bank estimates from of rapid population growth. household surveys, the share of people in Africa will not meet the Millennium Africa living on less than $1.90 a day fell Development Goal target of halving poverty from 56 percent in 1990 to 43 percent in by 2015 and projections are that the world’s 2012. Limiting the estimation to comparable poor will be increasingly concentrated in surveys of good quality, drawing on infor- Africa. Fragility and conflict are especially mation from nonconsumption surveys, and detrimental to poverty reduction, resulting applying price deflators other than the con- in poverty reduction that was 15 percentage sumer price index suggest that poverty may points lower than in other economies over have declined by more. Even under the most the 1996–2012 period. Rural areas remain POVERTY IN A RISING AFRICA AFRICA POVERTY REPORT MAIN MESSAGES much poorer than urban areas, although 2010, reaching four times the level of the the gap narrowed. The poverty rate among mid-1990s. Tolerance of domestic violence female-headed households is lower than (at 30 percent of the population) is still twice among male-headed households, but house- as high as in the rest of the developing world. holds headed by widows are worse off (and Greater tolerance of domestic violence and these results may change once differences less empowered decision making among in demographic composition are taken into younger (compared with older) women sug- account). Poverty is a persistent condition for gest that a generational shift in mindset is many poor; three out of five poor are chroni- still to come. Africa also remains among cally poor. the bottom performers in terms of voice and accountability. Nonmonetary dimensions of Beyond these regionwide trends, four well-being improved, but levels findings stand out: remain low and progress has • Fragile countries tend to perform worse leveled off than other countries, confirming the per- nicious effects of conflict. By many dimensions, well-being in Africa improved between 1995 and 2012. Adult • There is a worrisome penalty to residing in literacy rates increased 4 percentage points. a resource-rich country (figure 1). Life expectancy at birth rose 6.2 years, and • Women can expect to live in good health the prevalence of chronic malnutrition among 1.6 years longer than men, and among children under 5 fell 6 percentage points. The children under 5 it is girls, not boys, who number of deaths from politically motivated are less likely to be malnourished (by 5 violence declined, and both tolerance and the percentage points). But illiteracy remains incidence of gender-based domestic violence substantially higher among women, dropped. Scores on voice and accountability women suffer high rates of domestic vio- indicators rose slightly, and there was a trend lence, and women are more curtailed than toward greater participation of women in men in their access to information and less household decision-making processes. free to make decisions. These improvements notwithstanding, the levels of achievement remain low across these domains, and the rate of progress is FIGURE 1 Resource-rich countries perform systematically worse leveling off. Despite the increase in school enrollment, more than two out of five adults are still unable to read or write, and the qual- Incidence of domestic violence (% points) 9 ity of education is very low. About three- quarters of sixth graders in Malawi and Zam- bia cannot read for meaning, providing just Children’s malnutrition (% points) 2.1 one example of the school quality challenge. The need to reinvigorate efforts to tackle Women’s malnutrition (% points) 3.7 Africa’s basic educational challenge and build Africa’s future human capital is urgent. Life expectancy (years) –4.5 Health outcomes mirror the results for literacy: Progress is occurring, but out- Literacy (% points) –3.1 comes remain the worst in the world. Nearly two in five children are malnourished, and –6 –4 –2 0246810 progress in immunization rates and bednet distribution is slowing. Africans enjoyed Source: Staff calculations based on World Health Organization and multiple Demographic and considerably more peace in the 2000s than Health Surveys. Note: Figure shows the gap between resource-rich and other countries in Africa. Results control they did in earlier decades, but the number for demographic factors, education, poverty, and other country characteristics (income, fragility, of violent events has been on the rise since landlockness). MAIN MESSAGES POVERTY IN A RISING AFRICA AFRICA POVERTY REPORT

FIGURE 2 Inequality rose in about half of the countries and fell in the other half

0.03

0.02

0.01

0

–0.01

–0.02

–0.03

–0.04

go Africa Chad To nzania GhanaNigeria Malawi Ta Uganda Namibia Rwanda ZambiaSenegal Ethiopia Botswana Swaziland MauritiusCameroon BurkinaSierra Faso Leone MozambiqueSouth Côte d’IvoireMadagascar Congo, Dem. Rep.

Source: World Bank Africa Poverty database. Note: Annualized percentage change in the Gini index is based on the two most recent and comparable surveys available.

• Better-educated women and children in played in that growth, there is no evidence households with better-educated women of a systematic increase in inequality within score decisively better across dimensions countries in the region: For the set of coun- (health, violence, and freedom in decision). tries for which inequality trends can be More rapidly improving female education measured, inequality increased in about would be game changing in Africa. half and decreased in about half (figure 2). But household surveys fail to capture high Inequality patterns vary across net worth individuals, whose numbers and wealth have increased. For the region as a the region whole, the share of inequality attributed Of the 10 most unequal countries in the to between-country differences is growing, world today, 7 are in Africa. But excluding meaning there is a growing divide between these countries (most of which are in South- countries. ern Africa and five of which have popula- Spatial inequalities (urban-rural differ- tions of less than 5 million) and controlling ences and differences across regions) account for country-level income, Africa appears to for a large share of overall inequality in have inequality levels comparable to develop- many countries. Intergenerational mobility ing countries in other parts of the world. in education and occupation have improved, Despite Africa’s double decade of growth but mobility is still low, which perpetuates and the important role natural resources inequality.

The “Main Messages” are from the forthcoming book, Poverty in a Rising Africa, Africa Poverty Report by Kathleen Beegle, Luc Christiaensen, Andrew Dabalen, and Isis Gaddis, doi: 10.1596/978- 1-4648-0723-7. The PDF of the final, full-length book, once published, will be available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ and print copies can be ordered at http://Amazon.com.

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