How ProÞtable Is Capital Structure Arbitrage? Fan Yu1 University of California, Irvine First Draft: September 30, 2004 This Version: January 18, 2005 1I am grateful to Yong Rin Park for excellent research assistance and Vineer Bhansali, Nai-fu Chen, Darrell Duffie, Philippe Jorion, Dmitry Lukin, Stuart Turnbull, Ashley Wang, Sanjian Zhang, Gary Zhu, and seminar participants at UC-Irvine and PIMCO for insightful discussions. The credit default swap data are acquired from CreditTrade. Address correspondence to Fan Yu, UCI-GSM, Irvine, CA 92697-3125, E-mail:
[email protected]. How ProÞtable Is Capital Structure Arbitrage? Abstract This paper examines the risk and return of the so-called “capital structure arbitrage,” which exploits the mispricing between a company’s debt and equity. SpeciÞcally, a structural model connects a company’s equity price with its credit default swap (CDS) spread. Based on the deviation of CDS market quotes from their theoretical counterparts, a convergence-type trading strategy is proposed and analyzed using 4,044 daily CDS spreads on 33 obligors. We Þnd that capital structure arbitrage can be an attractive investment strategy, but is not without its risk. In particular, the risk arises when the arbitrageur shorts CDS and the market spread subsequently skyrockets, resulting in market closure and forcing the arbitrageur into liquidation. We present preliminary evidence that the monthly return from capital structure arbitrage is related to the corporate bond market return and a hedge fund return index on Þxed income arbitrage. Capital structure arbitrage has lately become popular among hedge funds and bank proprietary trading desks. Some traders have even touted it as the “next big thing” or “the hottest strategy” in the arbitrage community.