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Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2018-2022

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Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2018-2022 Expert opinions Vyacheslav Nikolaev Global and Russian markets: Artem Pulikov Key trends and outlooks Mikhail Voshchinsky Vadim Vereshchagin Oleg Tumanov CONTENTSCONTENTS 9 STEADY GROWTH Development trends in Russia's entertainment and media industry CREATIVE INTELLIGENCE AI: The new business reality NEW ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT Entertainment and media: Global trends 9 METHODOLOGY Detailed calculation methodology for all segments 9 KEY SEGMENTS Russia’s 2018 entertainment and media outlook 19 Internet access 21 TV advertising 23 Internet advertising 27 Cinema 31 OTT video EXPERT OPINIONS Vyacheslav Nikolaev (13) 35 Video games and e-sports Artem Pulikov (17) Mikhail Voshchinsky (25) 37 Virtual reality (VR) Vadim Vereshchagin (29) Oleg Tumanov (33) NEW ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT The entertainment and media market is entering a new phase of development. The lines that once separated the entertainment and media, technology and telecoms industries are becoming more and more blurred. Major content producers have become vertically aligned and integrated with distribution platforms that allow them to access end customers more efficiently, and Internet and telecoms giants are starting to create content and build local integrated ecosystems. The distinctions between segments are blurring, such as the distinctions between print and digital; video games and sports; terrestrial, cable and online TV; and social and traditional media. KEY DRIVERS OF THE NEW ECOSYSTEM 2018 The first year when global revenue from mobile Internet advertising will surpass its traditional equivalent. 3 Media Outlook | 2018 The distinctions between segments are blurring, such as the distinctions between print and digital; video games and sports; terrestrial, cable and online TV; and social and traditional media IN THE EVOLUTION OF ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA, TRADITIONAL BUSINESS MODELS ARE BEING REINVENTED SO THAT COMPANIES CAN TAP INTO NEW REVENUE STREAMS AND CREATE MARKET RELEVANCE AT SCALE. PwC 4 NEW ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT Three types of industry development ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA COMPANIES: THREE KEY WAYS TO TRANSFORM These three strategies are interrelated areas of development for achieving a company’s key goals of robust financial performance and maximum audience coverage. To be successful, companies should focus on all three areas. 5 Media Outlook | 2018 Continuing revenue growth... …but with stark differences among segments… ...and countries PwC 6 NEW ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT 7 Media Outlook | 2018 COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY, 2017-2022 НигерияNigeria 21,0% ЕгипетEgypt 17,1% ИндияIndia 11,6% KeniaКения 10,3% ИндонезияIndonesia 8,8% RussiaРоссия 8,8% ПакистанPakistan 8,8% VietnamВьетнам 8,1% PhilippinesФилиппины 8,1% TurkishТурция 7,9% СаудовскаяSaudi Аравия Arabia 7,6% RomaniaРумыния 7,3% АргентинаArgentina 7,2% ChinaКитай 7,2% UAEОАЭ 7,1% ThailandТайланд 6,5% PeruПеру 6,4% ЮжнаяSouth Африка Africa 6,4% GreeceГреция 6,4% ChileЧили 6,2% ПольшаPoland 6,1% Южная Корея 5,9% SouthМексика Korea 5,7% МалайзияMexico 5,6% ColumbiaКолумбия 5,6% Czech RepublicЧехия 5,4% БразилияBrazil 5,3% ВенгрияHungry 4,6% ИталияItaly 4,3% ПортугалияPortugal 4,3% SwedenШвеция 4,0% АвстралияAustralia 3,8% CanadaКанада 3,7% SingaporeСингапур 3,6% ИспанияSpain 3,5% NetherlandsНидерланды 3,5% USAСША 3,5% ИрландияIreland 3,5% ВеликобританияGreat Brittan 3,2% ИзраильIsrael 3,1% НоваяNew Зеландия Zealand 2,9% ТайваньTaiwan 2,8% SwitzerlandШвейцария 2,8% DenmarkДания 2,7% НорвегияNorway 2,7% BelgiumБельгия 2,6% ФинляндияFinland 2,6% ЯпонияJapan 2,3% ФранцияFrance 2,2% HongГонконг Kong 2,2% АвстрияAustria 2,2% GermanyГермания 2,0% PwC 8 STEADY GROWTH In 2017, the entertainment and media industry in Russia continued to show strong growth, with an upward trend expected through 2018 and over the next several years. The positive trend was facilitated by the sustainable trajectory of growth achieved by the Russian economy, for one, and by the 2018 FIFA World Cup, a large-scale sporting event hosted by Russia. Convergence The media industry is one of the few in which consumers, tempted by emerging technologies, tend to quickly change their behaviour and preferences 9 Media Outlook | 2018 Innovative technologies and personalisation THE DATA FROM 2017 SHOW THAT THE SIZE OF RUSSIA’S ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA INDUSTRY WAS USD 22BN, EXCEEDING THE 2016 MARKET SIZE BY 11%. WE EXPECT THAT THE MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AT THIS RATE AND SURPASS USD 24BN IN 2018. LOOKING FIVE YEARS AHEAD, WE PREDICT THAT THE MEDIA MARKET WILL DEMONSTRATE A CAGR OF 8.8%, WHICH IS TWICE THE GLOBAL RATE, AND THE TOTAL VOLUME OF THE RUSSIAN MEDIA INDUSTRY WILL EXCEED USD 33BN PwC 10 STEADY GROWTH USD 6.5bn Internet access will be the leader among all segments, accounting for 30% of the total volume. 11 RUSSIA’S ENTERTAINMENT ENTERTAINMENT RUSSIA’S E-sports 10 Predictions for 2022forPredictions Virtual reality 22 2017 Radio 264 OTT video 175 AND MEDIA REVENUE IN 2017 AND 2022 (USD (USD 2022 AND REVENUE IN2017 MEDIA AND Out-of-home advertising 628 Magazines 652 Music 643 Cinema 942 Business-to-business 1,320 (B2B) Books 1,423 TV advertising 2,912 M) Video games 2,268 Media Media Internet advertising 2,665 | Outlook PwC Internet access 6,549 2018 12 STEADY GROWTH EXPERT OPINION Telecoms market development vectors Vyacheslav Nikolaev “ 13 Media Outlook | 2018 From telecoms to entertainment ANY TOOL MUST BE THE MOST CONVENIENT… WITH AN ATTRACTIVE OFFERING, THE OPERATOR MAY ONLY GAIN A LITTLE, BUT THEY DO GAIN AN ADVANTAGE The services ecosystem and a personalised approach PwC 14 CREATIVE INTELLIGENCE Artificial intelligence (AI) is a new suite of technologies capable of performing tasks that usually require human intelligence, e.g. speech recognition, decision-making or learning. AI is being rapidly adopted as the business reality for many global industries. Its role in the entertainment and media industry is remarkable. Technology adoption 15 Media Outlook | 2018 Complete automation through Human resources and AI only AI technology Consumer-centred Optimisation of content Enhancing the customer innovation creation experience • Music produced by AI • Tracking exercise • Filmmaking based on the (e.g. improved workout Facebook newsfeed performance and developing a workout schedule) • Image gallery made in Google’s facial recognition system • Capabilities of interactive content (e.g. asking customers to fill out • Filmmaking based on Google a short questionnaire after photos viewing a video to rank the quality of a service/product) • Recommendations (e.g. TV, films and music) • Content tracking (e.g. Spotify playlists) • Interactive assistants (e.g. Alexa) Optimised internal Reduction of repetitive Enhanced and more creative processes tasks solutions • Automation of customer support • Strengthening sales performance • Automation of credit • Maximising revenue from films management • Maximising sales of content • Predictive technologies for licences analysing customer outflow • Reduced regulatory risks • Media planning and buying • Tracking and grouping comments • Tracking, creating • Video content analytics and distributing newsfeeds • Social media analytics • Creating content tags • Editing content (e.g. film trailers) • Developing sports recaps • Music for films and music libraries produced using AI PwC 16 KEY SEGMENTS EXPERT OPINION Artem Pulikov “ 17 Media Outlook | 2018 Moving up Apparent symbiosis PwC 18 KEY SEGMENTS INTERNET ACCESS Most Russian operators cite similar trends: the steady growth in the mobile data used, increased activity in the segment of products based on fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) and the growth of the fixed broadband access and pay TV segments. 19 Media Outlook | 2018 Networks and upgrades 5G infrastructure Mobile Internet revenue will grow strongly in line with increased data usage. PwC 20 KEY SEGMENTS TV ADVERTISING The Russian economy is closely linked to the performance of the TV advertising market, and a recession in 2015 saw a 13.7% decline in expenditures on TV advertising. However, this segment has proved resilient and is again experiencing strong rates of growth. 21 Media Outlook | 2018 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia National Advertising Alliance 12.3% Projected growth in TV advertising for 2018, due in particular to the impact of Russia hosting the FIFA World Cup. PwC 22 KEY SEGMENTS INTERNET ADVERTISING Russia’s Internet advertising market is the largest in Central and Eastern Europe, totalling USD 2.7bn in 2017. It is one of the fastest-growing markets and is expected to increase at a CAGR of 15% through 2022, when revenues will hit USD 5.4bn. 23 Media Outlook | 2018 Mobile advertising Display advertising PwC 24 KEY SEGMENTS EXPERT OPINION Internet versus TV Mikhail Voshchinsky “ 25 Media Outlook | 2018 Partnerships, emerging technology and content Big data, big opportunities ONE DATA SOURCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO RUN AN EFFECTIVE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN. PwC 26 KEY SEGMENTS CINEMA The Russian cinema sector remains heavily dependent on Hollywood for revenue. Of the top 20 films at the box office in 2017, 16 were American. In 2016, the market saw a similar situation, with an even larger number of Hollywood films (18) in the top 20. WE EXPECT THAT TOTAL CINEMA REVENUE WILL GROW TO USD 1.2BN BY 2022, UP FROM USD 942M IN 2017. USD USD bn 942m 1.2 2017 2022 27 Media Outlook | 2018 Russian tastes PwC 28 KEY SEGMENTS EXPERT OPINION “It is the story that counts” THE VIEWER GOES TO THE CINEMA FOR AN EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCE THAT ONLY THE CINEMA CAN PROVIDE; IT SHOULD BE A HUMAN INTEREST STORY, NOT A RETELLING OF AN EVENT 29 Media Outlook | 2018 Vadim Vereshchagin The Central Partnership film “ production company was established in 1996. It is part of the Gazprom-Media Group and it is an exclusive distributor of Hollywood Paramount Pictures and Lionsgate/ Summit Entertainment films in Russia and the CIS. The company owns one of Russia’s biggest copyright libraries. In 2017, Central Partnership films grossed over RUB 70bn at the box office, with domestic projects accounting for 30% of its revenue. Crossing borders: E-sports in cinema PwC 30 KEY SEGMENTS OTT VIDEO In Russia, the growth of the OTT video market has been limited since the issue of piracy remains unsolved.
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