An Interview with Gerd Gigerenzer
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Provided for Non-Commercial Research and Educational Use Only. Not for Reproduction, Distribution Or Commercial Use
Provided for non-commercial research and educational use only. Not for reproduction, distribution or commercial use. This chapter was originally published in the book Handbook of Experimental Economics Results. The copy attached is provided by Elsevier for the author’s benefit and for the benefit of the author’s institution, for noncommercial research, and educational use. This includes without limitation use in instruction at your institution, distribution to specific colleagues, and providing a copy to your institution’s administrator. All other uses, reproduction and distribution, including without limitation commercial reprints, selling or licensing copies or access, or posting on open internet sites, your personal or institution’s website or repository, are prohibited. For exceptions, permission may be sought for such use through Elsevier’s permissions site at: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/permissionusematerial Gerd Gigerenzer and Peter M. Todd, Rationality the Fast and Frugal Way: Introduction. In: C.R. Plott and V.L. Smitt, editors, Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, Volume 1. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 2008, p. 976. ISBN: 978-0-444-82642-8 © Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V. Author’s personal copy Chapter 105 RATIONALITY THE FAST AND FRUGAL WAY: INTRODUCTION GERD GIGERENZER PETER M. TODD Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany What is bounded rationality? The neoclassical answer is optimization under constraints such as information costs (e.g., Sargent, 1993). For behavioral economists, however, bounded rationality is the study of cognitive illusions and decision anomalies (e.g., Camerer, 1998; Rabin, 1998). These two interpretations make an odd couple, one pro- moting rationality, the other irrationality. Behavioral economists report that human behavior deviates from optimization models and reject these as descriptively inadequate. -
2 Cognitive Load Increases Risk Aversion 5 2.1 Introduction
Essays in Experimental and Neuroeconomics DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Dr. rer. pol. im Fach Volkswirtschaftslehre eingereicht an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin von Diplom-Volkswirt Holger Gerhardt geboren am 17. Januar 1978 in Arnsberg Präsident der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin: Prof. Dr. Jan-Hendrik Olbertz Dekan der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät: Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph. D. Gutachter: 1. Prof. Lutz Weinke, Ph. D. 2. Prof. Dr. Hauke R. Heekeren eingereicht am: 9. Mai 2011 Tag des Kolloquiums: 20. Juni 2011 Contents 1 Introduction 1 Bibliography . 3 2 Cognitive load increases risk aversion 5 2.1 Introduction . 5 2.2 Related literature . 7 2.2.1 Introductory remarks . 7 2.2.2 Overview of dual-system and “dual-self” approaches . 7 2.2.3 Subjective expected-utility theory as a unitary-process model of decision making under risk . 10 2.2.4 Dual-process approaches to decision making under risk . 11 2.2.5 Empirical evidence on dual processes in decision making under risk . 12 2.3 Experimental design . 17 2.3.1 Introduction: Advantages of our design over alternative designs . 17 2.3.2 Trial setup . 18 2.3.3 Additional measures of individual differences . 24 2.4 Results . 24 2.4.1 Introductory remarks . 24 2.4.2 Were the tasks adequate? . 25 2.4.3 How did subjects allocate attention to the two simultane- ous tasks? . 25 2.4.4 Preference reversal?—How often did subjects choose the riskier lottery? . 26 2.4.5 Structural regressions: the influence of additional cognitive load on subjects’ degree of relative risk aversion . -
Heuristics and Biases the Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. In
P1: FYX/FYX P2: FYX/UKS QC: FCH/UKS T1: FCH CB419-Gilovich CB419-Gilovich-FM May 30, 2002 12:3 HEURISTICS AND BIASES The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment Edited by THOMAS GILOVICH Cornell University DALE GRIFFIN Stanford University DANIEL KAHNEMAN Princeton University iii P1: FYX/FYX P2: FYX/UKS QC: FCH/UKS T1: FCH CB419-Gilovich CB419-Gilovich-FM May 30, 2002 12:3 published by the press syndicate of the university of cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom cambridge university press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarcon´ 13, 28014, Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org C Cambridge University Press 2002 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2002 Printed in the United States of America Typeface Palatino 9.75/12.5 pt. System LATEX2ε [TB] A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Heuristics and biases : the psychology of intuitive judgment / edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-521-79260-6 – ISBN 0-521-79679-2 (pbk.) 1. Judgment. 2. Reasoning (Psychology) 3. Critical thinking. I. Gilovich, Thomas. II. Griffin, Dale III. Kahneman, Daniel, 1934– BF447 .H48 2002 153.4 – dc21 2001037860 ISBN 0 521 79260 6 hardback ISBN 0 521 79679 2 paperback iv P1: FYX/FYX P2: FYX/UKS QC: FCH/UKS T1: FCH CB419-Gilovich CB419-Gilovich-FM May 30, 2002 12:3 Contents List of Contributors page xi Preface xv Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now 1 Thomas Gilovich and Dale Griffin PART ONE. -
Physical Laws and Human Behavior: a Three-Tier Framework
Yale University EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers Cowles Foundation 2-1-2019 Physical Laws and Human Behavior: A Three-Tier Framework Shabnam Mousavi Shyam Sunder Follow this and additional works at: https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cowles-discussion-paper-series Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Mousavi, Shabnam and Sunder, Shyam, "Physical Laws and Human Behavior: A Three-Tier Framework" (2019). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 84. https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cowles-discussion-paper-series/84 This Discussion Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the Cowles Foundation at EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. It has been accepted for inclusion in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers by an authorized administrator of EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PHYSICAL LAWS AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR: A THREE-TIER FRAMEWORK By Shabnam Mousavi and Shyam Sunder February 2019 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 2173 COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 http://cowles.yale.edu/ Physical Laws and Human Behavior: A Three-Tier Framework Shabnam Mousavi1 and Shyam Sunder2 1 Max Planck Institute for Human Development ([email protected]) 2 Yale University ([email protected]) This version: 21 February, 2019 Abstract Social sciences start by looking at the social-psychological attributes of humans to model and explain their observed behavior. However, we suggest starting the study of observed human behavior with the universal laws of physics, e.g., the principle of minimum action. -
Christoph Engel Preprints of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Bonn 2004/4
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Engel, Christoph Working Paper Social dilemmas, revisited from a heuristics perspective Preprints of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, No. 2004/4 Provided in Cooperation with: Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Suggested Citation: Engel, Christoph (2004) : Social dilemmas, revisited from a heuristics perspective, Preprints of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, No. 2004/4, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/85119 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen -
THINKING with MENTAL MODELS 63 and Implementation
Thinking with CHAPTER 3 mental models When we think, we generally use concepts that we it would be impossible for people to make most deci- have not invented ourselves but that reflect the shared sions in daily life. And without shared mental models, understandings of our community. We tend not to it would be impossible in many cases for people to question views when they reflect an outlook on the develop institutions, solve collective action problems, world that is shared by everyone around us. An impor- feel a sense of belonging and solidarity, or even under- tant example for development pertains to how people stand one another. Although mental models are often view the need to provide cognitive stimulation to shared and arise, in part, from human sociality (chapter children. In many societies, parents take for granted 2), they differ from social norms, which were discussed that their role is to love their children and keep them in the preceding chapter. Mental models, which need safe and healthy, but they do not view young children not be enforced by direct social pressure, often capture as needing extensive cognitive and linguistic stimu- broad ideas about how the world works and one’s place lation. This view is an example of a “mental model.”1 in it. In contrast, social norms tend to focus on particu- In some societies, there are even norms against verbal lar behaviors and to be socially enforced. There is immense variation in mental models across societies, including different perceptions of Mental models help people make sense of the way the world “works.” Individuals can adapt their mental models, updating them when they learn that the world—to interpret their environment outcomes are inconsistent with expectations. -
Libertarian Paternalism in Policy Making: Empirical, Methodological and Philosophical Problems
Institute for Research in Economic and Fiscal issues IREF Working Paper Series Libertarian paternalism in policy making: empirical, methodological and philosophical problems Yulie Foka-Kavalieraki Niki Sotiriou ORKING APER O IREF W P N . 202006 CTOBER O 2020 N NGLISH EN IREFEUROPE ORG I E : . N RENCH FR IREFEUROPE ORG I F : . N ERMAN DE IREFEUROPE ORG I G : . Institute for Research in Economic and Fiscal issues Libertarian Paternalism in Policy Making Empirical, Methodological and Philosophical Problems Yulie Foka-Kavalieraki & Niki Sotiriou1 University of Athens Nudge theory, according to its founders Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, is a kind of libertarian paternalism that helps people towards making choices that can improve their health, wealth and lives. The theory relies on the insights of the Heuristics &Bi- ases research program, and the assumption that people are systematically irrational. Nudge theory has been used in several cases by both government and private admin- istrations, in an attempt to guide individuals towards making preferable decisions, always on the basis that these decisions would be better for them. The aim of this paper is to review the relative literature of the theory’s applications in both the private and the public sector, and also examine the effectiveness of its applications. Specifi- cally, we examine examples where nudge theory has been broadly used as a policy making tool, such as in the UK, as well as in other countries around the globe. In ad- dition to that, we present the implementations of the theory in the private sector and in particular, we discuss the concept of nudge management, that is now applied by many big organizations. -
The Natures of Universal Moralities, 75 Brook
Brooklyn Law Review Volume 75 Issue 2 SYMPOSIUM: Article 4 Is Morality Universal, and Should the Law Care? 2009 The aN tures of Universal Moralities Bailey Kuklin Follow this and additional works at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/blr Recommended Citation Bailey Kuklin, The Natures of Universal Moralities, 75 Brook. L. Rev. (2009). Available at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/blr/vol75/iss2/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at BrooklynWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Brooklyn Law Review by an authorized editor of BrooklynWorks. The Natures of Universal Moralities Bailey Kuklin† One of the abiding lessons from postmodernism is that reason does not go all the way down.1 In the context of this symposium, one cannot deductively derive a universal morality from incontestible moral primitives,2 or practical reason alone.3 Instead, even reasoned moral systems must ultimately be grounded on intuition,4 a sense of justice. The question then † Professor of Law, Brooklyn Law School. I wish to thank the presenters and participants of the Brooklyn Law School Symposium entitled “Is Morality Universal, and Should the Law Care?” and those at the Tenth SEAL Scholarship Conference. Further thanks go to Brooklyn Law School for supporting this project with a summer research stipend. 1 “Simplifying to the extreme, I define postmodern as incredulity toward metanarratives.” JEAN-FRANCOIS LYOTARD, THE POSTMODERN CONDITION: A REPORT ON KNOWLEDGE xxiv (Geoff Bennington & Brian Massumi trans., 1984). “If modernity is viewed with Weberian optimism as the project of rationalisation of the life-world, an era of material progress, social emancipation and scientific innovation, the postmodern is derided as chaotic, catastrophic, nihilistic, the end of good order.” COSTAS DOUZINAS ET AL., POSTMODERN JURISPRUDENCE 16 (1991). -
My Background, Research Interests, and Future Plans by Geoffrey Miller
My background, research interests, and future plans By Geoffrey Miller Miller, G. F. (2011). My background, research interests, and future plans. In X.T. Wang & Su, Y.-J. (Ed.), Thus spake evolutionary psychologists (进化心理学家如是说), pp. 320-328. Beijing: Peking University Press. After I got a B.A. in psychology and biology from Columbia University, I went to graduate school in psychology at Stanford in 1987. I intended to study cognitive psychology, but found it too boring and abstract. Fortunately, two founders of evolutionary psychology – Leda Cosmides and John Tooby – were working as post-docs with my advisor Roger Shepard. Along with David Buss, Martin Daly, Margo Wilson, and Gerd Gigerenzer – who were visiting Stanford in 1989- 1990 – they introduced me to the possibility of applying evolutionary theory to study human nature. After that, my Stanford friend Peter Todd and I knew that we wanted to join this new field of evolutionary psychology, but we weren’t quite sure what research to do. We had learned about genetic algorithms – ways of simulating evolution by natural selection in computers – and we applied them to designing neural networks for learning some simple tasks. We hoped to illustrate how evolution and learning could interact to produce adaptive behavior. Our research led to my post-doc at University of Sussex in England in the early 1990s, working on artificial life and evolutionary robotics. That was fun, but I realized that I was more interested in human psychology than in cognitive engineering. At Stanford, I also grew interested in sexual selection through mate choice. It seemed like a very powerful but neglected process, not only for explaining sex differences in bodies and brains, but also for explaining the fast evolution of any extravagant mental abilities, whether bird song or human language. -
Parameterized Complexity Results for a Model of Theory of Mind Based on Dynamic Epistemic Logic∗
Parameterized Complexity Results for a Model of Theory of Mind Based on Dynamic Epistemic Logic∗ Iris van de Pol† Iris van Rooij Jakub Szymanik‡ Institute for Logic, Language Donders Institute for Brain, Institute for Logic, Language and Computation Cognition, and Behaviour and Computation University of Amsterdam Radboud University University of Amsterdam [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] In this paper we introduce a computational-level model of theory of mind (ToM) based on dynamic epistemic logic (DEL), and we analyze its computational complexity. The model is a special case of DEL model checking. We provide a parameterized complexity analysis, considering several aspects of DEL (e.g., number of agents, size of preconditions, etc.) as parameters. We show that model checking for DEL is PSPACE-hard, also when restricted to single-pointed models and S5 relations, thereby solving an open problem in the literature. Our approach is aimed at formalizing current intractability claims in the cognitive science literature regarding computational models of ToM. 1 Introduction Imagine that you are in love. You find yourself at your desk, but you cannot stop your mind from wandering off. What is she thinking about right now? And more importantly, is she thinking about you and does she know that you are thinking about her? Reasoning about other people’s knowledge, belief and desires, we do it all the time. For instance, in trying to conquer the love of one’s life, to stay one step ahead of one’s enemies, or when we lose our friend in a crowded place and we find them by imagining where they would look for us. -
How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats1
Published in: Psychological Review, 102 (4), 1995, 684–704. www.apa.org/journals/rev/ © 1995 by the American Psychological Association, 0033-295X. How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats1 Gerd Gigerenzer University of Chicago Ulrich Hoffrage Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? Previous research on base rate neglect suggests that the mind lacks the appropriate cognitive algorithms. However, any claim against the existence of an algorithm, Bayesian or otherwise, is impossible to evaluate unless one specifies the in- formation format in which it is designed to operate. The authors show that Bayesian algorithms are com- putationally simpler in frequency formats than in the probability formats used in previous research. Fre- quency formats correspond to the sequential way information is acquired in natural sampling, from ani- mal foraging to neural networks. By analyzing several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems, the authors found that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of all inferences by Bayesian algorithms. Non-Bayesian algorithms included simple versions of Fisherian and Neyman-Pearsonian inference. Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? The classical proba- bilists of the Enlightenment, including Condorcet, Poisson, and Laplace, equated probability theory with the common sense of educated people, who were known then as “hommes éclairés.” Laplace (1814/1951) declared that “the theory of probability is at bottom nothing more than good sense reduced to a calculus which evaluates that which good minds know by a sort of in- stinct, without being able to explain how with precision” (p. -
Mindless Statistics Gerd Gigerenzer∗
The Journal of Socio-Economics 33 (2004) 587–606 Mindless statistics Gerd Gigerenzer∗ Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany Abstract Statistical rituals largely eliminate statistical thinking in the social sciences. Rituals are indispens- able for identification with social groups, but they should be the subject rather than the procedure of science. What I call the “null ritual” consists of three steps: (1) set up a statistical null hypothesis, but do not specify your own hypothesis nor any alternative hypothesis, (2) use the 5% significance level for rejecting the null and accepting your hypothesis, and (3) always perform this procedure. I report evidence of the resulting collective confusion and fears about sanctions on the part of students and teachers, researchers and editors, as well as textbook writers. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Rituals; Collective illusions; Statistical significance; Editors; Textbooks ...no scientific worker has a fixed level of significance at which from year to year, and in all circumstances, he rejects hypotheses; he rather gives his mind to each particular case in the light of his evidence and his ideas. Sir Ronald A. Fisher (1956) I once visited a distinguished statistical textbook author, whose book went through many editions, and whose name does not matter. His textbook represents the relative best in the social sciences. He was not a statistician; otherwise, his text would likely not have been used in a psychology class. In an earlier edition, he had included a chapter on Bayesian statistics, and also mentioned (albeit in only one sentence) that there was a development in statistical theory from R.A.