China Materials 7 August 2019 China Molybdenum (3993 HK) China M ol ybdenum Target price: HKD2.75 Share price (7 Aug): HKD2.50 | Up/downside: +10.0% Initiation: once a red-hot metal, now cool to touch Dennis Ip, CFA (852) 2848 4068 Attractive play for cobalt market turnaround
[email protected] Low-cost copper assets buoy earnings in a downcycle; M&A upside Tony Wu, CFA (852) 2848 4469 Initiating with an Outperform (2) and PBR-based TP of HKD2.75
[email protected] Investment case: We initiate coverage of China Molybdenum (CMOC), one Share price performance of the leading non-ferrous metal producers in the world, with an Outperform (HKD) (%) (2) rating. Due to oversupply in the cobalt market, CMOC’s share price 3.9 110 declined by more than 60% from its peak in 2018, and we now see an 3.4 98 3.0 85 attractive entry point for investors. We prefer cobalt over lithium, as we 2.5 73 expect the cobalt industry to re-enter a supply deficit in 2020E and lithium to 2.0 60 remain in severe supply surplus. Also, the cobalt price is below the incentive Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 price, whereas the lithium price is 50% above the cost of production. China Moly (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) Low-cost copper assets less vulnerable to downcycle. Relative to peers, 12-month range 2.09-3.86 CMOC looks well placed to weather temporary copper-price weakness Market cap (USDbn) 6.89 thanks to its low-cost copper mine asset, which we see aiding profitability of 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 7.79 Shares outstanding (m) 21,599 its copper business and helping maintain positive CF.