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Test and Evaluation Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons

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Test and Evaluation Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons CHILD POLICY This PDF document was made available CIVIL JUSTICE from www.rand.org as a public service of EDUCATION the RAND Corporation. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE Jump down to document6 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit POPULATION AND AGING research organization providing PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY objective analysis and effective SUBSTANCE ABUSE solutions that address the challenges TERRORISM AND facing the public and private sectors HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND around the world. INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Test and Evaluation Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons Bernard Fox, Michael Boito, John C.Graser, Obaid Younossi Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release, distribution unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, HqUSAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Test and evaluation trends and costs for aircraft and guided weapons / Bernard Fox ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-109.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3540-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Airplanes, Military—United States—Testing. 2. Antiaircraft missiles— United States—Testing. 3. Airplanes, Military—United States—Costs. 4. Antiaircraft missiles—United States—Costs. 5. Air-to-surface missiles—Testing. 6. Air-to-surface missiles—Costs. 7. United States. Air Force—Weapons systems—Testing. 8. United States. Air Force—Weapons systems—Costs. I. Fox, Bernard, 1951– UG1243.T47 2004 358.4'18—dc22 2004005294 Cover photo courtesy of the U.S. Air Force at www.af.mil. Photographer: Judson Brohmer The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This is one of a series of reports from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, “The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Esti- mating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives.” The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, manage- ment, and government policy changes affect cost. This monograph examines the effects of changes in the test and evaluation (T&E) process used to evaluate military aircraft and air- launched guided weapons during their development programs. Working from extensive discussions with government and industry personnel, we characterize current trends in T&E and provide several general estimating relationships that can be used early in program development to estimate T&E costs. Appendixes A and B briefly summarize relevant technical, schedule, and programmatic infor- mation on recent test programs, while Appendix C provides official definitions of the phases of T&E. A separate supplement provides corresponding cost information but is available only to authorized government personnel. This project is being conducted within the RAND Project AIR FORCE Resource Management Program. The research is sponsored by the Principal Deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition), and by the Office of the Technical Director, Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. iii iv Test and Evaluation Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons This monograph should be of interest to government cost ana- lysts, the military aircraft and missile acquisition and T&E communi- ties, and those concerned with current and future acquisition policies. Other RAND Project AIR FORCE reports that address military aircraft cost estimating issues include the following: • An Overview of Acquisition Reform Cost Savings Estimates (Mark Lorell and John C. Graser, MR-1329-AF) used relevant litera- ture and interviews to determine whether estimates of the effi- cacy of acquisition reform measures are robust enough to be of predictive value. • Military Airframe Acquisition Costs: The Effects of Lean Manufacturing (Cynthia Cook and John C. Graser, MR-1325- AF) examined the package of new tools and techniques known as “lean production” to determine whether it would enable aircraft manufacturers to produce new weapon systems at costs below those predicted by historical cost-estimating models. • Military Airframe Costs: The Effects of Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Processes (Obaid Younossi, Michael Kennedy, and John C. Graser, MR-1370-AF) examined cost estimating methodologies and focus on military airframe materials and manufacturing processes. This report provides cost estimators with factors useful in adjusting and creating estimates based on parametric cost estimating methods. • Military Jet Engine Acquisition: Technology Basics and Cost- Estimating Methodology (Obaid Younossi, Mark V. Arena, Richard M. Moore, Mark Lorell, Joanna Mason, and John C. Graser, MR-1596-AF) contains background information on modern aircraft propulsion technologies and a variety of cost- estimating methodologies. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Preface v Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Preface...............................................................................................................................................iii Figures ..............................................................................................................................................xi Tables............................................................................................................................................. xiii Summary........................................................................................................................................xv Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................xxv Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................... xxix CHAPTER ONE Background: The Cost of Testing ...................................................................................1 Changes in the Test Process ...................................................................................................5 T&E Constituencies...................................................................................................................6 Estimating the Cost of T&E..................................................................................................7 Study Objectives...........................................................................................................................9 Study Limitations ........................................................................................................................9 Organization of the Report.................................................................................................. 11 CHAPTER TWO The T&E Process.................................................................................................................... 13 Types of Testing........................................................................................................................ 16 Developmental Test and Evaluation........................................................................
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