PARTIES LEAVING MEMBERS, MEMBERS LEAVING PARTIES: THE REALIGNMENT OF CANADIAN POLITICS, RIGHT AND LEFT Desmond Morton With the NDP virtually moribund during the Chrétien years, the Liberals vacated the left and successfully covered their right flank for the last decade. But no longer are the Liberals beneficiaries of a feeble Left and a divided Right. With a media savvy new leader in Jack Layton, the NDP is bidding hard to fill the political vacuum on the Left, while a recently united Right gathers in Toronto on March 20-21 to elect a leader of the new Conservative Party of Canada. Certain to be challenged from both Left and Right for seats in vote-rich Ontario, with fully 106 of 308 seats in the new House of Commons, the Liberals are looking to gain seats from the Bloc québécois in Quebec. But the Bloc is itself showing renewed signs of life in the polls, riding a wave of discontent with Jean Charest’s Liberal government in Quebec as well as the spondonship scandal. Desmond Morton considers some of the forces and personalities shaping the realignment of Canadian politics. Aidés d’un NPD moribond tout au long des années Chrétien, les libéraux ont su faire oublier la gauche et contrer la droite pendant une décennie complète. Mais ils ne peuvent désormais plus compter sur une gauche fragilisée et une droite morcelée. S’appuyant sur l’habileté médiatique de son nouveau chef Jack Layton, le NPD redouble d’ardeur pour combler le vide qui s’est creusé à gauche, alors même qu’une droite récemment unifiée élira les 20 et 21 mars à Toronto le nouveau chef du Parti conservateur du Canada. Craignant de perdre au profit des uns et des autres bon nombre de sièges en Ontario, d’où viennent 106 des 308 élus de la Chambre des communes, les libéraux misent sur les déçus du Bloc québécois pour se maintenir à flot. Mais voici que le Bloc lui-même, dynamisé par la vague de mécontentement suscitée par le gouvernement libéral de Jean Charest, ainsi que le scandale des commandites reprend du poil de la bête dans les sondages. Desmond Morton examine certains des courants et acteurs responsables de cette reconfiguration de la vie politique canadienne. he other day, a woman phoned from the CBC. “Is it possible,” I rejoined, “that the parties have been “Professor Morton, why are so many people leaving leaving their members?” T their parties these days?” Well, is it? She had no lack of examples — mostly eastern Tories flee- After three successive Liberal majorities for Jean ing the clammy embrace of the Canadian Alliance; but also Chrétien, and a fourth still possible for his ungrateful heir, Keith Martin, the occasional Medecin sans frontiéres from the competition should be changing their marketing strategy. Esquimalt, who confirmed the worst suspicions of CA nean- Unlike some decades of the old century, Canada for the past derthals by joining the Liberals; or Jean Lapierre, Liberal-turned ten years has been under substantially conservative manage- Bloc québécois-turned Liberal, who plans to manage Quebec ment. Yet the official holders of the brand, the for Paul Martin. One might even mention Sheila Copps’ Reform-Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives, well-publicized phone chat with NDP leader Jack Layton, have not had so much as a whiff of power. Instead it has been Ontario MP and John Bryden bolting the Liberals, blaming the Liberals who skinned the social programs Brian Mulroney Paul Martin on the way out, and joining the Conservatives. did not dare touch, expanded the Free-Trade Agreement to 16 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MARS 2004 Parties leaving members, members leaving parties: the realignment of Canadian politics, Right and Left Ronald Reagan’s original North ment Corporation to recognition of the Absent the NDP, Liberal politics in America-wide dream, and eased the tax Communist regime in Beijing. With the 1990s took on a right-wing tilt. Jean burden on corporations and the some of its neatest ideas purloined and Chrétien was a populist with a strong wealthy while holding fast to the its batty kind of nuclear neutralism distaste for the self-important, but he Goods and Services Tax. Who needed drained away, the NDP became conser- was, above all, an inland waters sailor, Jean Charest or Joe Clark? Especially vative in its own way. From the 1970s, its watching the wind and keeping off the foreshore. Since the reefs Absent the NDP, Liberal politics in the 1990s took on a right- were all to the starboard, wing tilt. Jean Chrétien was a populist with a strong distaste they guided his course. Just holding the tiller was pleas- for the self-important, but he was, above all, an inland waters ure enough for the little guy sailor, watching the wind and keeping off the foreshore. Since from Shawinigan, especially the reefs were all to the starboard, they guided his course. when it made his patrician colleagues squirm. Paul who needed Preston Manning or leaders defended the social democracy Martin was one of them, but he bided Stockwell Day, whose social conser- Canada unconsciously became in the his time, cultivated the rancorous jeal- vatism sent shudders through much of postwar years. Youngsters who grew up ousies of those excluded from the Quebec and Ontario? in a home-owning, holiday-taking, uni- Chrétien circle, captured riding associa- The undignified haste with which versity-bound Canada, where a tions beyond the prime minister’s Peter MacKay forgot his leadership-win- cancer-ridden mother no longer meant purview and by mid-2003, months ning pledge never to negotiate merger family bankruptcy, had no notion that before Chrétien quit on December 12th, with the Alliance will arm political cyn- these conditions were won by Martin had the keys to the Liberal party ics with evidence for years. In fact, union-backed socialists squeezing in his pocket. MacKay was under orders from his power-seeking Liberals. The pundits who wrote so know- financial backers to get his outfit out of Even worse, when the NDP won ingly of invincible prime ministerial business fast. If, after more than a provincial power — and by 1991, half power were wrong. Whether through decade in the wilderness, right-wingers of all Canadians lived under a socialist love, fear or hope of gain, even a dic- had even a hope of a comeback, it government — their reforms had tator like Saddam Hussein needed loy- almost always vanished the moment dwindled to mere tinkering, some of it alty. So did Chrétien. A venerable Tory and Alliance candidates faced each inept. The NDP’s electoral collapse in culture of caucus discipline, cultivated other across every main street in 1993, comparable to the death throes by Sir John A. Macdonald, Sir Wilfrid Ontario and the Maritimes. With Paul of the CCF, owed nothing to Ed Laurier and William Lyon Mackenzie Martin’s Liberals in office and likely to Broadbent or even his lacklustre suc- King, had grown into a parliamentary stay there, Canada’s corporate establish- cessors, and everything to the per- system that gives durable power only ment had no imaginable use for three formance of his provincial partners, to disciplined ranks of MPs. After competing right-wing parties. If David Bob Rae, Mike Harcourt, Roy Chrétien had unveiled his last, mini- Orchard couldn’t get that message, he and his pals Ripping a page from Brian Mulroney’s play book, Martin co- could join the Liberals or, opted his old pal, Jean Lapierre, as his Quebec boss, much as even better, the NDP. Mulroney took Lucien Bouchard aboard his Tory machine in Indeed, it might serve the socialists right to have to 1984. The hard line architect of the federal Clarity Act, put up with Orchard’s Stéphane Dion, is gone, and Lapierre will have a mandate to righteous factionalism. stamp out his supporters in the Quebec Liberal organization. For sovereignists, the welcome mat is out. ack in the 1960s, B Canada’s last real reforming age, a Romanow and the already beaten mal cabinet shuffle, ten years of small but youthful NDP provided most Howard Pawley. All that remained was deferred gratification exploded. of the agenda for the Pearson Liberals. a tiny, battered federal caucus with Countless unfulfilled ambitions could The faded green program the New barely the energy to say “No” to what- only be satisfied by rebellion. Scores of Democrats adopted at their 1961 found- ever the Chrétien government did. ambitious would-be cabinet ministers ing convention was a fair agenda of fed- Weary, demoralized backers closed could gain portfolios and perquisites eral policy, from universal medical care their cheque books and went home in only from Paul Martin. When Martin insurance to federally-funded urban despair. Some of them, polls show, finally gained power last December, renewal, from the Canadian Develop- even voted Reform. even the face-saving courtesies of POLICY OPTIONS 17 MARCH 2004 Desmond Morton intra-party conflict vanished in thin air. Only a small handful of ministers who had made their peace with Martin could stay. The rest were toast. Talk of democratic deficits and new status for backbenchers masked a revo- lution in MP self-esteem that will mat- ter more than any new name-change on the political right. For veteran poli- tics-watchers, the once disciplined levies of liberalism are a memory. No wonder the defectors went straight to the Liberal caucus: it had become the only exciting party on the hill. Of course, revolutions are easier to start than to stop. If Martin could depose Chrétien, can someone now depose Martin? How many MPs believe they have the talent for the top job? How soon will embittered Chrétienites use their new leisure and their old contact lists? Will only devoutly loyal Martinites win nomina- tions and seats in the next election? Currently bored by the parliamentary spectacle, will Canadians begin to find it too exciting? The media may rejoice but since when have they had any seri- ous commitment to rational policy and sensible management? major delight of politics is the CP Photo A unexpected.