Topics in Macroeconomics Volume 4, Issue 1 2004 Article 7 Do Minimum Wages Raise the NAIRU? Peter Tulip∗ ∗Federal Reserve Board,
[email protected] Copyright c 2004 by the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, bepress. Topics in Macroeconomics is one of The B.E. Journals in Macroeconomics, produced by The Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress). http://www.bepress.com/bejm. Do Minimum Wages Raise the NAIRU?∗ Peter Tulip Abstract Maybe a lot. The ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage enters a Phillips- curve equation with a coefficient that is highly significant, stable, and robust. One in- terpretation of these results is that the relative level of the minimum wage affects the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment or NAIRU. My estimates are consis- tent with the reduction in the relative level of the minimum wage since 1980 lowering the 1 U.S. NAIRU about 1 2 percentage points, while raising the NAIRU in continental Europe. However, other interpretations are also possible. KEYWORDS: NAIRU, minimum wage ∗Federal Reserve Board, Washington D.C. 20551. Email:
[email protected]. This paper is a substantially revised version of Tulip (2000b). I am grateful to Charles Fleischman, Flint Brayton, Dave Reifschneider, Albert Ando, Lawrence Klein, Dan Polsky, Frank Schorfheide, Clive Crook, David Romer and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and assistance. The data and programs used in this paper are available from the author on request and at http://www.petertulip.com.