UK Interregional Trade Estimation: Estimates of trade between Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England Alastair Greig, Mairi Spowage and Graeme Roy ESCoE Discussion Paper 2020-09 June 2020 ISSN 2515-4664 UK Interregional Trade Estimation: Estimates of trade between Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England Alastair Greig, Mairi Spowage and Graeme Roy ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2020-09 June 2020 Abstract In the UK, there is major economic change such as Brexit on the horizon. The impact of such change is likely to vary across UK regions. There is also a growing demand for improved regional economic analysis to help inform devolution and City Deal-type policymaking. Despite these concerns, there are no comprehensive national statistics on interregional trade in the UK. This paper fills this gap, proposing a framework for estimating interregional trade between the devolved nations of the UK: England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. We explain where gaps exist in the current UK data landscape and suggests various ways in which these could be addressed. We then apply our framework using currently available data, presenting initial results for trade between the 4 nations of the UK in 2015. Recommendations for future work are also presented, including the need to evaluate current methods for collecting trade information within the UK. Keywords: Interregional Trade Flows, Regional Supply Use Tables, Trade Surveys, Origin Destination Data JEL classification: F15, F17, R12 Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde,
[email protected] and Greame Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde,
[email protected]. Published by: Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench St London SW1P 3HE United Kingdom www.escoe.ac.uk ESCoE Discussion Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.