50. the 2004 Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) Attested to the Turnaround in Pakistan’S Banking System (IMF Country Report No
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- 32 - References Reinhart, C., K. Rogoff, and M. Savastano, 2003, “Debt Intolerance.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:2003, pp. 1-74. International Monetary Fund, 2003, World Economic Outlook: September 2003—Public Debt in Emerging Markets, (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Manasse, P. and N. Roubini, 2005, “Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises”, IMF Working Paper 05/42 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 33 - 15 IV. BANKING SYSTEM AND STOCK MARKET UPDATE A. Introduction 50. The 2004 Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) attested to the turnaround in Pakistan’s banking system (IMF Country Report No. 04/215). Seven years of restructuring, recapitalization, and privatization had by mid-2004 transformed the ownership structure, risk management, profitability, and reach of the system, allowing asset quality to improve and credit to expand into previously underserved segments of the economy. Nonetheless, the FSSA cautioned that rapid credit growth “could be problematic if sustained.” 51. This chapter updates some of the FSSA findings and tracks developments over the last 1½ years. Lending activity appears to have approached “boom” thresholds in the period since the FSSA, and the stock market underwent a contained boom-bust cycle in early 2005. Despite this, the banking system has continued to strengthen on an aggregate level, although trends at a few individual banks underscore the need for continued supervisory vigilance. Most financial soundness indicators (FSIs) remain on an improving trajectory. Nevertheless, bank-by-bank stress test results suggest that a few large banks are vulnerable to some shocks. The authorities have continued implementing their financial sector reform agenda and followed-up on FSSA recommendations. Development needs remain in the nonbank financial sector. On the stock market, several aspects still fall short of international good practice, as discussed in the FSSA, but ongoing reforms are moving in the right direction. B. Financial Sector Overview 52. Pakistan remains a moderately intermediated economy with pervasive development needs that call for further financial deepening. Viewed through this prism, the rapid credit expansion of recent years is a Figure IV.1. Pakistan: Money Supply, 2005 1/ welcome development. The spread of (In percent of GDP) financial intermediation, in turn, has been 120 120 facilitated by a wide-ranging, largely NSS deposits 100 M2 100 home-grown financial sector reform program, appropriately focused on the 80 80 banking system. At end-2003, the latest year 60 60 for which sector-wide data are available, 40 40 total assets of the consolidated financial sector—defined here to include the Federal 20 20 government’s direct deposit-taking 0 0 operations through its National Savings Pakistan India Bangladesh Philipines Malaysia Source: National authorities, and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Latest available data. 15 Prepared by Ashok Vir Bhatia (MFD) with contributions from Axel Schimmelpfennig (MCD). ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 34 - Schemes (NSS)—stood at the equivalent of about 70 percent of GDP (Table IV.1). Money supply (cash, bank deposits, and NSS liabilities) amounted to 57 percent of GDP at mid- 2005, compared with 87 percent for India (at end-March, including its Small Savings Schemes, which are essentially the same as Pakistan’s NSS; Figure IV.1). Table IV.1. Pakistan: Financial Sector Assets, 2003 Billions of Percent Percent Pakistani rupees of GDP share Financial sector 3,922 70.9 100.0 NSS 1/ 844 15.3 21.5 Banking system 2/ 2,538 45.9 64.7 Commercial banks 2,438 44.1 62.2 Public sector commercial banks 959 17.3 24.5 Local private banks 1,212 21.9 30.9 Foreign banks 267 4.8 6.8 Specialized banks 100 1.8 2.5 Development finance institutions 79 1.4 2.0 Microfinance banks 4 0.1 0.1 Nonbank finance companies 166 3.0 4.2 Leasing companies 45 0.8 1.1 Investment banks 25 0.5 0.6 Housing finance companies 21 0.4 0.5 Mutual funds 75 1.4 1.9 Modarabas 3/ 14 0.3 0.4 Pension funds 150 2.7 3.8 Insurance companies 126 2.3 3.2 General insurance companies 30 0.5 0.8 Life insurance companies 96 1.7 2.4 Sources: SBP; SECP; and Bank-Fund staff estimates. 1/ Direct deposit-taking by the Federal government. Figures are for total liabilities, not assets. 2/ Consolidates operations of foreign branches of domestic banks. 3/ Islamic industrial finance companies. 53. As in most developing countries, the financial sector is dominated by banks. Nonetheless, nonbank financial institutions play a significant supporting role. The banking system, which includes commercial banks and four small, state-owned specialized banks, accounts for approximately two-thirds of total financial sector assets. The banking system, as well as a small number of development finance institutions and microfinance banks, is regulated by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The NSS account for another one-fifth of the financial sector and compete directly with banks for deposits. The remainder of the financial sector, including nonbank finance companies, pension funds, and insurance providers, is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP). 54. Eight years of reforms have transformed Pakistan’s banking system. Before reforms began in 1997, the system was dominated by chronically loss-making public sector commercial banks weighed down by substantial nonperforming loans (NPLs). Today, ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 35 - following a period of sustained restructuring, recapitalization, and privatization, the core of the system is made up of local private banks; assets are growing robustly; overall NPLs are falling even in nominal terms; and profitability is at record levels. The decline in the NPL ratio since 1997 has been helped by recovery drives, promulgation of a foreclosure law, restructuring of loans, issuance of write-off guidelines, and the takeover of some large NPLs by an asset management company (corporate and industrial restructuring corporation). Moreover, the flow of new NPLs has come down significantly. Led by consumer lending, credit is expanding into previously underserved segments of the economy without (thus far) undermining asset quality, and capital is growing faster than risk-weighted assets. 55. The ownership structure of the banking system has changed radically and competition has increased (Figures IV.2–IV.3; Table IV.2). Following the privatization of United Bank Ltd. in 2002 and Habib Bank Ltd. in 2004, the market share (by assets) of public sector commercial banks had by end-2004 fallen to 21 percent, most of which was with the National Bank of Pakistan (the largest bank in the system). Between 1997 and 2004, the market share of local private banks increased from 26 percent to 65 percent, reflecting the two large privatizations, several acquisitions of foreign banks, and more rapid growth overall. At the same time, the market share of the five largest banks in the system dwindled from 62 percent to 56 percent. By assets and on several other measures, the market share of the next five banks increased marginally, and that of the remainder of banks by a more substantial amount. Figure IV.2. Pakistan: Banking System Structure, Figure IV.3. Pakistan: Banking System Assets, 1997–2005 1997–2005 (Number of banks) (In billions of Pakistani rupees) 60 60 3500 3500 Specialized banks Specialized banks Foreign banks 3000 Foreign banks 3000 50 Local private banks 50 Local private banks Public sector commercial banks 2500 Public sector commercial banks 2500 40 40 2000 2000 30 30 1500 1500 20 20 1000 1000 10 10 500 500 0 0 0 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1/ 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1/ Source: Pakistani authorities. Source: Pakistani authorites. 1/ End-June. 1/ End-June. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 36 - Table IV.2. Pakistan: Banking System Concentration,1997–2004 1/ (Percentage shares) 1997 2004 Total assets 100.0 100.0 Banks 1–5 62.0 56.0 Banks 6–10 15.0 17.0 Other banks 23.0 27.0 Gross loans 100.0 100.0 Banks 1–5 60.4 53.8 Banks 6–10 16.7 17.4 Other banks 22.9 28.8 Customer deposits 100.0 100.0 Banks 1–5 67.0 59.9 Banks 6–10 11.3 14.4 Other banks 21.7 25.7 Net interest income 100.0 100.0 Banks 1–5 48.1 54.0 Banks 6–10 28.1 18.2 Other banks 23.8 27.8 Noninterest income 100.0 100.0 Banks 1–5 61.5 59.0 Banks 6–10 10.0 18.8 Other banks 28.5 22.2 Net income after tax 100.0 100.0 Banks 1–5 130.3 58.5 Banks 6–10 -10.8 21.8 Other banks -19.5 19.8 Source: SBP. 1/ Commercial and specialized banks; consolidates operations of foreign branches of domestic banks. Banks ranked by total assets. 56. The system has been expanding rapidly since 2002. Reflecting improved capitalization and the macroeconomic turnaround, the average annual rate of growth of total assets doubled from 8 percent in 1998–2001 to 16 percent in 2002–04. With the asset growth of the public sector commercial banks and foreign banks fluctuating from year to year, the expansion has consistently been spearheaded by the local private banks, which have emerged as the most dynamic group in the system. Asset growth has closely been tracked by deposit growth in almost every year of the period, and the share of net loans (gross loans less allowances) in total assets has been rising since 2003. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 37 - C. A Credit Boom? 57.