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Central Karoo District Municipality 2017

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Central Karoo District Municipality 2017 Central Karoo District Municipality 2017 CENTRAL KAROO DISTRICT: AT A GLANCE 1. DEMOGRAPHICS 2 2. EDUCATION 2 3. HEALTH 2 4. POVERTY 2 5. BASIC SERVICE DELIVERY 2 6. SAFETY AND SECURITY 2 7. THE ECONOMY 2 8. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 2 SOURCES 34 2 Central Karoo District: At a Glance Population Estimates, 2018; Actual households, 2016 75 688 21 980 2016 2016 Gini Coefficient 0.57 Matric Pass Rate 84.8% Human Development Index 0.6 2016 9 74.9% 0.0 8.0% Percentage change between 2016 and 2017 in number of reported cases per 100 000 -9.1% -21.8% 11.6% -11.3% -22.1 Percentage of households with access to basic services, 2016 95.1% 90.8% 95.4% 97.1% 97.8% 2016 2016 39 Unemployment Rate Drought Financial Sustainability (Grant dependency) 58 23.2% Stagnating Economic Growth Contribution to GDP, 2015 Wholesale and retail trade, Agriculture, forestry and General Government catering and accommodation fishing 2 22.9% 22.9% 17.7% 1 DEMOGRAPHICS This first chapter of the SEP focusses on the people living in the Central Karoo District. A demographic perspective on a municipality allows to observe not only simple changes in population growth, but also to look at other various developments that influence the social life of every citizen. Demographics allow to emphasise aspects of society like, e.g. gender, race, migration or life expectancy. Decisions made by politicians as well as by the administration affect in almost every case at least one aspect of Demographics. Therefore, a good understanding of this area is crucial for the government’s work. The overview of key demographic factors given in this chapter comprises of the estimates of population size, the distribution of population within age cohorts and furthermore the dependency ratio, which is of high importance for understanding economic activity in the area as well as for planning welfare systems. With this short, but informative overview, the SEP tries to help the municipalities in their budgeting process by delivering precise data as a solid foundation for future decisions. Data source: Department of Social Development, 2017 1 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Central Karoo District Municipality POPULATION 4 500 000 4 000 000 3 500 000 3 000 000 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 500 000 0 Cape Central Karoo City of Cape Overberg West Coast Winelands Eden District District Town District District District 2018 864 028 75 688 4 055 580 619 224 284 272 433 445 2019 874 413 76 354 4 094 582 625 186 287 752 439 036 2020 884 565 77 020 4 131 722 631 005 291 150 444 497 2021 894 441 77 685 4 167 003 636 682 294 466 449 847 2022 904 058 78 350 4 200 484 642 220 297 701 455 051 2023 913 391 79 014 4 232 276 647 627 300 860 460 132 The population of the Central Karoo District is expected to expand at a moderate rate across the next 5 years. As per above, the population will grow from 75 688 people in 2018 to 79 014 in 2023 which equates to a 0.9 per cent year-on-year growth rate. AGE COHORTS Children: Working Age: Aged: Dependency Year 0 - 14 Years 15 - 65 Years 65 + Ratio 2011 21 683 44 950 4 370 58.0 2018 20 430 49 643 5 616 52.5 2023 19 267 52 975 6 772 49.2 The above table depicts the population age cohorts of those living within the Central Karoo District. The total population is broken down into three different groups: Age 0 - 14: children; Age 15 - 65: working age population; Age 65+: seniors. A comparison between the 2018 and 2023 estimates show a sharp increase in the number of people within the working age and aged cohorts whilst the children grouping decreases across the same reference period. Labour market dynamics has in recent times increased the demand for skilled labour. This demand is potentially being met by external professionals which increases the concentration of people in the working age cohort. The dependency ratio in the Central Karoo is subsequently estimated to decrease notably towards 2023. 2 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Central Karoo District Municipality 2 EDUCATION Education and training improves access to employment opportunities and helps to sustain and accelerate overall development. It expands the range of options available from which a person can choose to create opportunities for a fulfilling life. Through indirect positive effects on health and life expectancy, the level of education of a population also influences its welfare. Data source: Western Cape Education Department, 2017 3 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Central Karoo District Municipality LEARNER ENROLMENT 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Cape City of Cape West Coast Overberg Central Karoo Winelands Eden District Town District District District District 2014 613 393 57 501 139 088 39 542 101 165 14 151 2015 628 048 58 909 141 263 40 501 102 412 14 182 2016 639 251 60 348 142 130 40 841 103 011 14 333 Learner enrolment in the Central Karoo District only increased marginally at an average annual rate of 0.6 per cent between 2014 and 2016, lower than any other district in the Western Cape. This rate is mostly influenced by the low enrolment rate in Beaufort West (where the majority of pupils in the Central Karoo are concentrated) across the same period (0.5 per cent). LEARNER-TEACHER RATIO Learner–teacher ratios within the various local municipalities of the Central Karoo District increased exponentially since 2014. The ratio is the worst in Prince Albert where the number of children per teacher increased from 31.8 in 2014 to 55.0 in 2016. Beaufort West increased from 32.2 in 2014 to 51.6 in 2016 whilst Laingsburg increased from 31.3 to 48.0 across the same period. Increased learner-teacher ratios are a major concern as it is commonly assumed that children receive less personalised attention in larger class environments and that high learner-teacher ratios are detrimental to improved educational outcomes. GRADE 12 DROP-OUT RATES High school drop-out rates in the Central Karoo District are alarmingly high. In Laingsburg, the drop-out rate was 72.3 in 2016 meaning that 72.3 per cent of all learners that enrolled in Grade 10 in Laingsburg in 2014 dropped out of school by the time they reached Grade 12 in 2016. The rate for Prince Albert was 48.1 per cent whilst Beaufort West was the lowest at 38.0 per cent. These high levels of drop-outs are influenced by a wide array of economic factors including unemployment, poverty, indigent households, high levels of households with no income or rely on less than R515 a month and teenage pregnancies. The high drop-out rate is particularly concerning given the ever increasing demand for skilled and highly skilled labour within the region. 4 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Central Karoo District Municipality EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES The availability of adequate education facilities such as schools, FET colleges and schools equipped with libraries and media centres could affect academic outcomes positively. 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Number of Schools with Libraries Total Number of Schools 2014 23 29 2015 23 29 2016 23 29 There were 29 schools within the greater Central Karoo District in 2014 of which 23 had functional libraries. The number of schools in the District remained unchanged since then. Although learner-enrolment in the District has only increased marginally, the number of schools could become problematic in future, evident from the fact that the learner-teacher rate in the District has increased significantly in recent years. 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Cape City of Cape West Coast Overberg Central Karoo Winelands Eden District Town District District District District 2014 46.2% 72.1% 77.2% 78.6% 77.4% 79.3% 2015 46.2% 72.1% 77.2% 78.6% 76.9% 79.3% 2016 46.3% 70.4% 76.3% 79.8% 75.3% 79.3% Above graph depicts the percentage of no-fee schools within the various Districts of the Western Cape. The Central Karoo District, arguably the poorest region in the Western Cape, from an economic perspective, has the largest number of no-fee schools – 79.3 per cent (102) of the total 129 schools across the District in 2016 were considered to be no-fee institutions. The fact this number has remained unchanged since 2014 does however appear problematic amidst increased economic hardship across the Province and South Africa as a whole. 5 2017 Socio-economic Profile: Central Karoo District Municipality EDUCATION OUTCOMES Education remains one of the key avenues through which the state is involved in the economy. In preparing individuals for future engagements in the broader market, policy decisions and choices in the sphere of education play a critical role in determining the extent to which future economy and poverty reduction plans can be realised. This section measures the matric pass rates within the Central Karoo District. 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Beaufort West Prince Albert Laingsburg 2014 67.60% 76.60% 76.60% 2015 85.50% 98.30% 69.20% 2016 76.60% 69.20% 90.30% Matric pass rates amongst the various local municipalities in the Central Karoo District varied considerably between 2014 and 2016.
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