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A Case Study on Yarra River

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A Case Study on Yarra River Management of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution – A Case Study on Yarra River By Sushil Kumar Das Thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy College of Engineering and Science Victoria University, Australia August 2016 ABSTRACT The development and use of any specific model depend on the availability of data and the hydrological settings of a country. Because of data limitations (especially water quality and land management data), the water quality models developed for Australian catchments are lumped/semi-distributed conceptual models. Even within these modelling frameworks, water quality component is empirical or generation rates-based. In this context, developing an effective water quality management plan in the data-poor conditions of Australia still remains as a major challenge for water catchment managers, despite huge investment on river health improvement programs. Physics-based distributed water quality models such as SWAT are most suitable for agricultural non-point source pollution studies. However, because of high data requirement and processing, the applications of these models are limited in many data- poor catchments. In this study, relevant input data sources and analysis techniques were addressed especially for sparsely available water quality data to assemble, and to rigorously calibrate and validate the SWAT based Middle Yarra Water Quality Model (MYWQM) for the case study area - Middle Yarra Catchment (MYC) of Victoria, Australia. The regression based model LOADEST was used for estimating sediment, and nutrient observed loads from monthly water quality grab sample data. The MYWQM was then used to develop a water quality management plan for agricultural non-point source pollution in the MYC. In general, the MYWQM was found capable of predicting streamflow, sediment and nutrient loads in the MYC. The model was also found effective for simulating individual and integrated effects of several Best Management Practices (BMPs) in the MYC. Moreover, the model showed that the in-stream processes if not considered can result in incorrect estimates when simulating BMPs in the model. Overall, the performance of the MYWQM on evaluating the BMPs in the MYC demonstrated that data-intensive physics-based models can be applied in the data-poor conditions of Australia. i DECLARATION “I, Sushil Kumar Das, declare that the PhD thesis entitled ‘Management of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution – A Case Study on Yarra River’ is no more than 100,000 words in length including quotes and exclusive of tables, figures, appendices, bibliography, references and footnotes. This thesis contains no material that has been submitted previously, in whole or in part, for the award of any other academic degree or diploma. Except where otherwise indicated, this thesis is my own work”. Signature Date: 30/08/2016 ii Dedicated To My parents with love and appreciation “All that I am or ever hope to be, I owe to my angel mother” -Abraham Lincoln iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I owe thanks to many people whose assistance was indispensable from the inception of my life in Victoria University (VU) to this point of completing my research. First, I would like to express my heartiest gratitude and indebtedness to my Principal Supervisor, Dr. Anne W.M. Ng for accepting me as her student, for her wonderful guidance, endless freedom on my work, thoroughness and promptness in reviewing my work. Without her patience, constructive comments and feedback, it would have been impossible to handle a research work of this kind. Most importantly, she was a great support in my hard time from the beginning of my study in VU. She always kept her faith on my ability and encouraged me throughout my study at Victoria University. I would also like to express special thanks to Professor Chris Perera who has been a strong and supportive Associate Supervisor throughout my study at VU. He guided me a lot in developing and completing this project. In reviewing my writing, he offered painstaking comments, whilst respecting my voice. What kept me moving constantly, were his amazingly insightful comments with detailed attention to my arguments, showing the ways of dramatically improving them. I also like to thank Chris for providing me financial support at the end stage of my study in VU. Following institutions and individuals also deserve special mention for their contributions to this project and their support is gratefully acknowledged: . Victoria University and Federal Government of Australia for providing financial support for this research project . Office of Graduate Research Centre (GRC) in VU especially Professor Ron Adams for providing me research training, and office of student support in VU. Academic staffs of water resources group in VU especially Dr. Nitin Muttil . Melbourne Water Corporation, SILO climate and Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia; CSIRO and Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) in Australia; Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES); Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS); The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) of Japan and the United States National iv Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for providing required data for this study . The SWAT model development team especially Georgie Mitchell for supporting me to understand the SWAT model autocalibration tool, and R. Srinivasan . Dr. Lesley Birch, Senior Coordinator (Admissions and Scholarships) in GRC; Elizabeth Smith, Senior Officer (Graduate Research) in GRC; Tien Do, Technical Officer (College of Engineering and Science); and many other staffs and friends in VU for helping me in numerous ways At last but not the least, I feel highly indebted to my wife for her unconditional support, patience and love which were always there for me. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract……............................................................................................................... i Declaration.................................................................................................................. ii Dedication…………………………………………………………………………... iii Acknowledgements..................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents........................................................................................................ vi List of Tables.............................................................................................................. xi List of Figures............................................................................................................. xiv List of Abbreviations.................................................................................................. xix List of Publications and Awards................................................................................. xxi 1. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………….…..... 1-1 1.1. Problem Statement..……………………….…………………...…………… 1-1 1.2. Objectives of the Study……….......………….…………………………….. 1-3 1.3. Significance of the Research……………………………………………….. 1-3 1.4. Outline of the Thesis……………………………………………………….. 1-5 2. WATER QUALITY PROCESSES AND MODELLING……...………….…….. 2-1 2.1. Introduction………………………………..………………………………. 2-1 2.2. Water Quality Processes…….……………………………………………… 2-2 2.2.1. Overland processes…………………………………………………. 2-3 2.2.1.1. Soil erosion…………………..…………………………… 2-3 2.2.1.2. Nitrogen cycle…………………..………………………... 2-3 2.2.1.3. Phosphorus cycle……….………………………………… 2-5 2.2.2. In-stream processes……….………………………………...……… 2-6 2.2.2.1. Channel erosion………..…………………………………. 2-7 2.2.2.2. Nitrogen cycle……………...…..………………………… 2-7 2.2.2.3. Phosphorus cycle…………………………….…………… 2-9 2.3. Water Quality……………………………………………….……………… 2-10 2.3.1. Water pollution…………………………………………..….……… 2-10 2.3.1.1. Point source water pollution…………………….……….. 2-10 2.3.1.2. Non-point source water pollution………..………….……. 2-11 vi 2.3.2. Management of agricultural non-point source pollution…………… 2-12 2.3.2.1. Best management practices…….………………………… 2-13 2.3.2.2. Studies of best management practices……………….…… 2-14 2.4. Catchment Water Quality Modelling Software…………………………..… 2-17 2.4.1. Model types………………….…………………………………...… 2-17 2.4.2. Water quality modelling software and studies in Australian catchments……………………..…………………………………… 2-20 2.4.2.1. SOURCE Catchments model……………………….……. 2-22 2.4.2.2. CatchMODS model………………………….…………… 2-23 2.4.2.3. EMSS model………………………………………..……. 2-24 2.4.2.4. CMSS model………….………………………………….. 2-25 2.4.2.5. SedNet model…………………………..………………… 2-26 2.4.2.6. Nutrient generation studies in Australian catchments….… 2-27 2.4.3. Selection of water quality modelling software for the Middle Yarra Catchment…………………………………………………...……… 2-29 2.4.3.1. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model…... 2-33 2.4.3.2. Specific SWAT applications……………………….…….. 2-37 2.5. Model Evaluation…………………………………………….…………….. 2-40 2.5.1. Sensitivity, calibration and validation, and uncertainty analysis…………………………………………………………...… 2-40 2.5.1.1. Sensitivity analysis methods……………………………... 2-45 2.5.1.2. Calibration methods…………………………..………….. 2-46 2.5.1.3. Uncertainty analysis methods….…………………………. 2-47 2.5.1.4. Sensitivity, autocalibration and uncertainty analysis in SWAT2005…………….…………………………………. 2-49 2.5.2. Data processing for model calibration……………………………... 2-52 2.5.2.1. Streamflow data…………..………………………………. 2-52 2.5.2.2. Water quality data…………..……………………………. 2-53 2.5.3. Model evaluation statistics………….……………………………… 2-58 2.6. Data sources
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