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ECONOMIC 10 November 1962 ENGLISH ORIGINAL: ENGLISH/SPANISH

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ECONOMIC 10 November 1962 ENGLISH ORIGINAL: ENGLISH/SPANISH UNITED NATI general E/CN.12/618 ECONOMIC 10 November 1962 ENGLISH ORIGINAL: ENGLISH/SPANISH MiMiMMiMiummMMHNtnimiHiimMMitHiiiiitMtiHihnmHHMtiimmiiHMHMiiiiini ECONOMO COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA SOME ASPECTS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN COLOMBIA Prepared by the secretariat of the Economic Commission for Latin America E/CN,12/618 Page iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Sage Introduction. ............ ...»c..... 1 Population Estimates ..aoo.........•<>.o»... <,......... 3 1. Total population growth» «••.«•••»•a...*. 3 (a) The censuses of 1938 and 1.951 3 (b) Recent population growth in Ecuador, Mexico and 'Venezuela,, ........a...,,,», ...*<>«••...,, .,,,*«» 7 (c) Birth rates and death rates in Colombia 8 (d) Estimated population growth, 1945-70. ... 11 2. Population growth by departments ..... 14 (a) Growth of departmental populations according to census es osoo. 14 (b) Effects of migration 16 (c) Natural increase0.o * 21 (d) Population estimates for departments, 1945-70 23 3. Urban and rural populations,., 25 (a) Census definitions* 25 (b) The projection, 27 (c) Population of towns of various sizes* 29 (d) Urban and rural population by departments,,... • 34 II, Implications for education, manpower and housing,,..»., 41 1, Population and primary education0„ 9009 oe..'...«........... 41 (a) Children enrolled in primary schools.......... 41 (b) Number of children of proper primary school age...... 49 (c) Primary education: future requirements».,,..,,,...... 57 (d) Regional distribution of school children and school enrolment. o........... 62 (e) Educational level0.»....,.,.,........................ 66 (f) Literacy... 69 /2. Population and E/CN.12/618 Page iv £äge 2o Population and manpowers,..., <,.......» » 76 (a) Difficulty of study 76 (b) Economic activity of the population in 1951...* 77 (c) Reported economic activity of the population in 1938.... 80 (d) Effects of urbanization... 80 (e) Effect of education 81 (f) Economic activity and marital status 84 (g) Projection of economically active population.. 86' (h) Growth of the labour force 90 (i) Dependency burdens 91 (j) Adolescents. 93 3. Socio-economic composition of manpower and its autonomous projection. 97 (a) Occupational composition, 1951« 99 (b) Occupational status composition 1951 (i.e. employers, employees, etc.) 101 (c) Composition by sector of activities, 1938 and 1951...... 107 (d) Projection of manpower by three sectors of activity, 1951-1981.... 109 (e) Cash contract and other workers. 110 (i) In primary activities......*...».......<.......... 110 (ii) In secondary activities 113 (iii) In tertiary activities 116 (f) Comparison of results of the theoritical calculations .. 119 (g) Necessary modification of past trends................... 123 4. Population growth and housing problems...................... 125 (a) Estimates, of the type suggested by the Pan American Union 125 (b) Problems of policy....,,. 126 (c) Estimates of the Corporación Nacional de Servicios Públicos 127 (d) Coincidence of CNSP and PAU estimates 130 /(e) Housing deficit E/CN.12/618 Page v • (e) Housing deficit by size of community, 1951e.o.a®.•oo 131 (f) An alternative measure of over-crowding: persons per room........... ..••<>.».•..» .......<>..<..•*.•. 133 (g) Other housing aspects. 135 (h) Summary... ....<>.. 135 III. Conclusions. ...<>..*• 138 1. Substantive conlcusions....... 138 (a) High total rate of population growth................ 138 (b) Population distribution,»,........................... 140 (c) Urbanization. 141 (d) Calculable effects of diverse migratory tendencies.. 144 (e) Education.». 146 (f) Manpower..„.»».Co.* 148 (g) Housing 151 (h) Repercussions on economic and social policy....•„*.* 153 2. Statistical and demographic needs. » 158 (a) The statistical basis of the present report... 158 (b) The new census data required. 161 (c) Assessments and improvements required in vital statistics,»®«0...,.*,»...•«.« 163 (d) Other conventional statistics.,.»„••••.............. 165 (e) Special investigations »«...<>...................... 165 (f) Institutionalization of demographic research.. 166 /INTRODUCTION E/CN.12/618 Page 1 INTRODUCTION The present report relates to a demographic study which was carried out by ECLA at Santiago, Chile, in the course of I960 and 1961. In preparing this study, the primary purpose has been to inform the Colombian Government, through the ECLA/BTAO Advisory Group at Bogota, of probable current and-future changes in the national populiation, and of certain implications which these demographic changes may have for particular fields of economic and social policy. Colombia is also the first country in which the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) and the Latin American Demographic Centre(CELADE)have initiated, as part of their joint programme of demographic assistance to Governments, a "case study" to promote national work in population analysis. Early in 1961, with the agreement of the Colombian authorities, a Demographic Working Group was constituted in the premises of the Colombian Department of Statistics (DANE). A technical assistance expert assisted in the preparation of its organization and work programme. The present study was also partly designed to provide suggestions as regards the type of more detailed studies that might usefully be attempted by the Colombian Group, The Group2s basis programme has now progressed sufficiently to make it worthwhile- to consider its eventual consolidation as a permanent Government service. Apart from providing demographic analyses of interest to the Government, the national demographic service would also have to concern itself with the statistical raw material on which such analyses can be based. The demographic analysts, therefore, would also have to co-operate with the statisticians with a view to securing data of such quantity, quality and specific detail as would come closest to meeting practical needs. Some shortcomings were inevitable in the present study because available statistical information is not quite sufficient in a number of respects and they should lead to positive suggestions. The advisory activities of ECLA and CELADE are never limited to any single country. Similar approaches can often be recommended for several countries. Of course, no two countries are quite alike in every detail /nor in E/CN.12/618 Page 2 nor in the type of information that can be brought to bear on their indi- vidual circumstances. With suitable adaptations, however, a study made with reference to a particular country may suggest the type of study that can usefully be carried out in other cases also. It is for this reason that, with the agreement of the Government of Colombia, the present study is being given wider distribution as one in the series of ECLA documents. This is being done in full awareness of the fact that the study is incomplete and imperfect in numerous respects. First of all, it is based almost exclusively on information available in Santiago, though much additional information, relevant to the subject-matter, is available at Bogota. Secondly, because much time has elapsed since the last Colombian population census, estimates that can now be made are no longer well supported by the available statistics. Furthermore, the study is presented here as it developed in the course of I960 and 1961, no additional attempt having been made to round it off systematically as a more self-contained thesis. True, consultations were held both with the ECLA/BTAO Advisory Group at Bogota and with the Population Branch of United Nations Headquarters to ensure that there was no inconsistency with the information available and methods applied at those offices. Basic to the x^hole report is a projection of the Colombian urban and rural population, for the period 1951 to 1981, prepared by ECLA in consul- tation with CELADE.i/ 1/ Proyección de la población urbana, población rural y fuerza trabajadora de Colombia, March 1960. /I. POPULATION E/CN.12/618 Page 3 I. POPULATION ESTIMATES 1. Total population growth This is not an auspicious moment for the presentation of new population estimates for Colombia. The last population census was taken in 1951 and, with every year that has passed, the basis for estimation has become less reliable. Another Colombian census has been planned and various prepa- rations have been made, but no decision has yet been reached with regard to when this new census is to be taken. There is now a prospect that new data will be secured in the foreseeable future and that, when this happens, any estimates now made will have to be revised, perhaps even quite extensively. Nevertheless, those estimates may justifiably be made at any given moment and it is equally justifiable to undertake projections which, in the light of available information, are the most plausible. Population facts are among the important criteria of Government policy and policy has to be formulated and reformulated, in the course of time, in accordance with the best knowledge that can be secured at any given time, (a) The censuses of 1938 and 1951 The two most recent Colombian population censuses are those of 5 June, 1938 and 9 May, 1951. Since the registration of births and deaths - though improving - has been unreliable, an evaluation of the current population trend depends largely on the probable rate of population growth indicated by those two censuses. The simplest method for estimating population figures for post-censal dates is to accept the last two census totals at face value and to assume that the annual rate of growth indicated by them
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