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BOOK REVIEWS Theprocess of Empirical Testing of Hypoth- Eses, the Mostdistinctive Feature of the Scientificenterprise

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BOOK REVIEWS Theprocess of Empirical Testing of Hypoth- Eses, the Mostdistinctive Feature of the Scientificenterprise it correctto assertthat "science is predic- tive,"as the slogangoes. Indeed,being predictiveof unknown facts is essentialto BOOK REVIEWS theprocess of empirical testing of hypoth- eses, the mostdistinctive feature of the scientificenterprise. A hypothesisis test- ed empiricallyby ascertainingwhether or notpredictions about the world of experi- The Candleand the Darkness ence derivedas logicalconsequences from the hypothesisagree with what actually an impartialreader that the claimed expe- becomesobserved. What is beingpredict- The Demon-Haunted World. Science as a riencesresulted from dreams and hallucina- ed in thisprocess is an unknownstate of Candle in the Dark. CARL SAGAN. Random tions,rather than from events in the outside affairs,not necessarily a future event. And House, New York,1996. xviii,460 pp. $25.95 or world.We areprovided a longlist of typical the predictionis made by logicaldeduc- C$35.95. offeringsat the tableof pseudoscience and tionfrom the hypothesis. superstition:astrology, the Bermuda Trian- The hypothesisthat chimpsare more In 1961 whiledriving at nightin the White gle,Big Foot,the Loch Ness monster,ex- closelyrelated to humansthan to gorillasis Mountains,Betty and BarneyHill sighteda trasensoryperception, bleeding statues, di- testedby examiningDNA segmentsfrom brightobject in the sky that seemed to viningrods, pyramidology, palmistry, nu- each species,which the hypothesis predicts follow them. Fearingfor theirsafety, they merology,faith-healers, Ouija boards,and will be moresimilar between human and left the main highway and took narrow muchmore. chimpthan between chimp and gorilla. The roads, arrivinghome two hours later than Sagantackles antiscience, in additionto evolutionarydivergence of humans, theyhad expected.The experienceprompt- pseudoscience.Science has been underat- chimps,and gorillashappened in the dis- ed Betty to read a book that described tackfor centuries, he proclaims.The nem- tantpast, and theirDNA is alreadythere. UFOs as spaceshipsnavigated by littlemen eses of our time are postmodernistsand WhenI nowexamine it, I testmy hypoth- fromother worlds, who sometimesabducted deconstructionists(he does not use thelat- esis. Sagan has gone astrayby failingto humans.Soon thereafter,she began experi- terterm) who denythe objectivityof sci- distinguishprediction in the logicalsense encinga repetitivenightmare in which she ence."Some even allege," he laments,"it's (bydeduction) from prediction in thetem- and Barney were abducted and taken entirelysubjective, as is, theysay, history" poralsense (foretelling the future), which is aboard a UFO. In a few days they were (p. 252). Sagansees that historical accounts notan essentialfeature of science. describinga pancake-likeUFO with uni- areoften self-promotional; what really hap- Saganhas muchto sayabout reduction- formedfigures visible throughthe craft's penedis coloredby subjectivebiases. Sci- ismas a distinctivefeature of sciencethat windows.This and othermotifs of the Hills' entistsalso have biases and breathethe accountsfor much of its success.Science account are similarto those found in the prevailingprejudices of their environment. seeks understanding of an eventor process 1953 motion picture Invadersfrom Mars. But scienceis a collectiveenterprise en- by investigatingits componentelements Later,Barney described the enormouseyes dowedwith the error-correctingprocess of andunderlying processes. The successof this of the aliens, just 12 days afteraliens were empiricaltesting. In science,"you can rerun analyticalmode is unquestionable (although so portrayedin an episode of the television theevent as manytimes as youlike, exam- the antitheticalmode is also successful;in seriesThe OuterLimits. The Hills' storywas ine it in new ways,test a wide rangeof mattersof research strategy, what counts is made into a 1975 movie purportingthat alternativehypotheses" (p. 254). Scientists success,not howwe getthere). We might short,gray alien abductorsare among us in are biasedand commitmistakes, but "Sci- call thiskind of research strategy "method- the psychesof millionsof people. ence thriveson errors,cutting them away ological"or "strategical"reductionism. Carl Sagan tells that he met with the one byone. Falseconclusions are drawn all But Sagan claims much more. He Hills forseveral hours,and writes:"There the time,but theyare drawntentatively. writes: "Until the middletwentieth cen- was no mistakingthe earnestnessand sin- Hypothesesare framedso theyare capable tury,there had been a strongbelief ... cerityof Betsyand Barney,and theirmixed ofbeing disproved" (p. 20). thatlife was not 'reducible'to the lawsof feelingsabout becomingpublic figures"(p. Scienceis thecandle in thedark of the physicsand chemistry,that therewas a 103). Nevertheless,there are manyreasons book'stitle, and Saganseeks to character- 'vitalforce,' an 'entelechy,'a tao, a mana to doubt that the events describedby the ize itsdistinctive attributes. One, accord- thatmade livingthings go" (p. 271). He Hills happened in the world outside their ingto him,is thatscience can predictthe tellsthe story of the 18th-centurychemist mental experience.Sagan pursuesthis and future."Not everybranch of sciencecan JosephPriestley, who foundno difference other case historiesof a demon-haunted foretellthe future-paleontologycan't- in the weightof a mousejust beforeand world with the surefootednessof a well- butmany can and withstunning accuracy. afterits death. Nothing had departedwith informedobserver, the narrativeskills of an Ifyou want to knowwhen the next eclipse death, at least nothing-that could be engagingraconteur, and the subtledestruc- ofthe Sun willbe, you might try magicians weighed.Most scientistswould agree,I tivenessof an experiencededucator. or mystics,but you'll do muchbetter with suppose,with this kind of reductionism We encounterthe Man in the Moon, scientists"(p. 30). Here Sagan and I part (let's call it "ontological"or "physical"). the Face ofMars, the Dragon in the Garage, company.In the matterof foretellingthe Livingthings are exhaustivelycomposed and countlessstories of UFO sightings,ab- futureI don'tthink that astronomy is the of atoms;if we removeall the atomsthat ductionsby aliens, and miraculousappari- ruleand paleontologythe exception,but makeup a mousebody, nothing is left.But tions.Sagan meticulouslydebunks each sto- the otherway around. acceptingthis kind of reductionismdoes ryby notingabsence of verifiableinforma- Scientistspredict the course of rockets not in anyway entail the claim that biol- tion, uncoveringsuspicious coincidence of and the statisticaldistribution of popula- ogyis reducibleto thelaws of physics and conditioningcircumstances, and pursuing tionalevents, but that is in mybook a long chemistry. This is an epistemological otherlines of reasoning that would persuade wayfrom foretelling the future. Yet I think claim, which can be shown to be mistaken 442 SCIENCE * VOL. 273 * 26 JULY 1996 This content downloaded from 128.200.102.124 on Sat, 27 Jun 2015 00:49:13 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions by simplypointing out thatthe originof speciesor symboliclanguage (or the ma- jorityof the subjectsworth of investigat- ingin biologyand otherdisciplines) can- notbe explainedby the laws of physics or Vignettes:Identity Crisis chemistry. Saganmight state a convictionthat such The mythof human exceptionalityhas been supplanted of late by the mythof reductionism(of, say, the laws of biology to biological continuity.Recent research effortsin the social and naturalsciences thelaws of physics) will be accomplishedin to presume to have already proved-that there thefuture. But this is a statementof faith. seem determined prove-indeed, is no essential, irreducibledistinction between humans and animals. Each one of The late philosopherKarl Popperargued shown to appertainin thatcomplete epistemological reduction of our prizedfacilities-language, cognition,megalothymia-is one or another to otherspecies. Precisely at the momentwhen we have a disciplineto anotheris impossiblein prin- degree in our modes of dwelling,precisely ciple.Sagan asks rhetorically: "Why should overcome the earth and become unearthly on our kinshipwith the somereligious people oppose the reduction- when we are on the verge of becoming cyborgs,we insist from new formof collective istprogram in science,except out ofsome animal world.We sufferthese days a anxiety:species misplacedlove ofmysticism?" Popper's op- loneliness. positionto the(epistemological) reduction- -Robert P. Harrison,in UncommonGround: Toward Reinventing Nature ist programin sciencewas certainlynot (William Cronon,Ed.; Norton) religiouslymotivated, nor was he particular- lyappreciative of mysticism. Thinkingin termsof bits has allowed us to develop the fieldof computerscience, FranciscoJ. Ayala in which we learn how to represent the world withpatterns of information.So DepartmentofEcology and Evolution, successful are our endeavors thatsome physicistsand computerscientists believe UniversityofCalifornia, that perhaps informationis not a human inventionbut something as real, as Irvine,CA 92697, USA physical,as matterand energy.And now a handfulof researchers have come to believe that informationmay be the most real of all. Simulated creatures would have no way of knowingthey are simulations,the argumentgoes. And, forthat . matter,how do we know that we are not simulations ourselves, runningon a computerin some other universe? The Gender Nature,it seems, has honed us intoinformavores so voracious thatsome can Front persuade themselves
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