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Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Town Profile 2013-14 Ashburton/Buckfastleigh v2.1 October 2013 Page 1 Executive Summary This executive summary shows the main findings of this document in one place (excluding mortality and admissions spine chart data). It highlights rates that are statistically higher or lower than the Devon rate. ► The population of Ashburton/Buckfastleigh is predicted to decrease by 336 people between 2011 and 2026, a fall of 3.5%. ► Based on the 2011 census, the prevalence of the BME population in Ashburton/Buckfastleigh is 1.8% compared to 2.7% in Devon overall. Statistically Lower Rate Rate Not Statistically Different Statistically Higher Rate Section / Data Rate Birth Rate 58.2 births per 1,000 females aged 15 to 44 not statistically different Life Expectancy 81.4 years not statistically different Children In Need 256 per 10,000 population aged under 18 not statistically different Statements 5.6% of school pupils statistically higher SEN Children & School Action+ 4.8% of school pupils not statistically different Young Youth Offending 5.4 per 1,000 children aged 10-17 not statistically different People 5 GCSEs A-C 47.5% of DCC school pupils not statistically different Ethnicity 4.6% of school pupils statistically lower English Not First Language 2.7% of school pupils statistically lower Living in care homes 18.6 DASR per 1,000 population aged 65+ not statistically different Aged 65+ Community based care 60.8 DASR per 1,000 population aged 65+ not statistically different Assessments 52.1 DASR per 1,000 population aged 65+ not statistically different Learning Living in care homes 1.9 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18 to 64 statistically higher Disabilities Community based care 2.5 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18 to 64 not statistically different Living in care homes 0 per 1000 population aged 18 to 64 statistically lower Mental Health Community based care 3.8 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18 to 64 statistically lower Condition Assessments 2.2 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18 to 64 not statistically different Adults Living in care homes 0.3 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18 to 64 not statistically different Physical Community based care 4.7 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18 to 64 not statistically different Disabilities Assessments 2.8 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18 to 64 not statistically different Carer Assessments and Reviews 1.03 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18+ not statistically different Carers receiving Self-Directed Support 19.1 DASR per 1,000 population aged 18+ not statistically different Domestic Violence 10.5 per 1,000 population aged 18+ statistically lower Crime Drug 0 per 1,000 population aged 18+ statistically lower Alcohol 2.7 per 1,000 population aged 18+ Statistically Lower Not Statistically All Elective 3895 per 100,000 population Different Hospital All Emergency 2412 per 100,000 population not statistically different Admissions Alcohol Related 1539 per 100,000 population Produced by: Matt Edmunds, Senior Public Health Information Analyst Acknowledgements: Simon Chant, Public Health Specialist (Intelligence) Melanie Burke, Senior Management Information Officer Louise Hann, Management Information Team Kirsty Priestley, Senior Public Health Information Analyst Gemma Hobson, Senior Public Health Information Analyst Shaun Carter, Corporate Projects Officer Lesley Gibbings, Policy Performance & Review Officer (Torbay) Carla Calzavacca, Assistant Management Information Officer Page 2 Contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Population 4 2.1 Current Population 4 2.2 Population Projections 5 2.3 Black and Minority Ethnic 6 3. Deprivation 7 4. Birth Rate 8 5. Life Expectancy 8 6. Mortality 9 7. Children and Young People 10 7.1 Children in Need 10 7.2 Special Educational Needs 11 7.3 Youth Offending 12 7.4 GCSE Performance 13 7.5 Ethnicity in schools 13 7.6 English as an Additional Language 14 7.7 Teen Conceptions 15 8. Adults 16 8.1 Older People Aged 65 and Over 17 8.2 Adults with Learning Disabilities 20 8.3 Adults with Mental Health Conditions 22 8.4 Adults with Physical Disabilities 24 8.5 Carers 26 8.6 Personalisation 8.7 Crime 28 8.8 Smoking 30 9. Hospital Activity 31 9.1 Elective Admissions 31 9.2 Emergency Admissions 32 9.3 Alcohol Related Admissions 33 Page 3 1. Introduction This is the Devon Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Health Profile for Ashburton/Buckfastleigh. The aim of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment is to collaboratively identify current and future health and well being needs and inform future service planning and delivery. This profile contains a range of socio-demographic and health related data, which together provide a detailed assessment of current need and service activity at a local level. In addition to data relating to Ashburton/Buckfastleigh, information has been provided for the other Towns, and for Devon as a whole so that Ashburton/Buckfastleigh can be compared to these other areas. Data for this report was gathered and collated by the Devon Public Health Intelligence team and the Devon Social Care Commissioning Management Information team. A glossary is available providing detailed definitions and background information for the measures in this report: http://www.devonhealthandwellbeing.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Glossary.pdf Figure 1: Detailed Map of the Ashburton/Buckfastleigh Locality area. Any feedback or questions concerning the information in this report would be gratefully received. We would be keen to receive feedback on whether you recognise the community as described in the profile, if you feel there is any key information missing or there are any local priorities or issues you wish to identify. Please email the Public Health Intelligence Team at [email protected] . Page 4 2. Population 2.1 Current Population A population pyramid for Ashburton/Buckfastleigh can be seen below. As a comparison, the Devon population pyramid is shown by the black lines. F M Age Group Female Male Total 0 to 4 209 236 445 5 to 9 241 269 510 10 to 14 264 299 563 15 to 19 288 295 583 20 to 24 193 253 446 25 to 29 204 217 421 30 to 34 204 233 437 35 to 39 284 195 479 40 to 44 373 352 725 45 to 49 420 375 795 50 to 54 357 336 693 55 to 59 352 348 700 60 to 64 368 366 734 65 to 69 364 315 679 70 to 74 227 225 452 75 to 79 180 165 345 80 to 84 148 118 266 85+ 209 90 299 Total 4885 4687 9572 Figure 2: Ashburton/Buckfastleigh population size by age group and gender (June 2012) Data Source: Patient and Practitioner Services Agency Town Devon 85+ 2.2 0.9 80 to 84 1.5 1.2 75 to 79 1.9 1.7 70 to 74 2.4 2.4 65 to 69 3.8 3.3 60 to 64 3.8 3.8 55 to 59 3.7 3.6 50 to 54 3.7 3.5 45 to 49 4.4 3.9 40 to 44 3.9 3.7 35 to 39 3.0 2.0 30 to 34 2.1 2.4 25 to 29 2.1 2.3 20 to 24 2.0 2.6 15 to 19 3.0 3.1 10 to 14 2.8 3.1 5 to 9 2.5 2.8 0 to 4 2.2 2.5 7 5 3 1 2 4 6 Figure 3: Ashburton/Buckfastleigh population pyramid (showing % of total population) compared to Devon (June 2012) Data Source: Patient and Practitioner Services Agency Page 5 2. Population 2.2 Population Projections The population of Ashburton/Buckfastleigh is predicted to decrease by 336 people between 2011 and 2026, a fall of 3.5%. Over the same time period: - the total number in the 0-19 age band is predicted to decrease by 183 people, a fall of 8.6%. - the total number in the 20-44 age band is predicted to decrease by 109 people, a fall of 5.8%. - the total number in the 45-64 age band is predicted to decrease by 358 people, a fall of 10.1%. - the total number in the 65-84 age band is predicted to increase by 199 people, a rise of 12.5%. - the total number in the 85+ age band is predicted to increase by 114 people, a rise of 31.7%. 10000 9000 Age 85+ 8000 Age 80-84 Age 75-79 7000 Age 70-74 6000 Age 65-69 Age 60-64 5000 Age 40-59 Age 25-39 4000 Age 20-24 Age 15-19 3000 Age 10-14 Age 5-9 2000 Age 0-4 1000 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Figure 4: Ashburton/Buckfastleigh population projection by age group. Data source: Jan 2010 DCC population projections Year 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-39 40-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Total 2001 469 522 640 489 345 1614 2624 468 452429 363 251 279 8945 2006 437 504 621 567 400 1432 2811 597 464426 346 288 313 9205 2011 475 471 612 571 474 1413 2854 691 532429 348 286 362 9517 2016 463 478 546 534 442 1414 2788 614 596477 345 288 390 9374 2021 456 465 553 478 404 1445 2642 619 530538 385 291 428 9236 2026 448 465 546 487 355 1423 2530 657 541485 439 330 476 9182 Figure 5: Ashburton/Buckfastleigh population projection by age group. Data source: Jan 2010 DCC population projections Page 6 2.
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