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Who Is Driving Whom: the Media, Voters and the Bandwagon

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Who Is Driving Whom: the Media, Voters and the Bandwagon UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Who is driving whom The media, voters and the bandwagon Stolwijk, S.B. Publication date 2017 Document Version Final published version License Other Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Stolwijk, S. B. (2017). Who is driving whom: The media, voters and the bandwagon. General rights It is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulations If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: https://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. UvA-DARE is a service provided by the library of the University of Amsterdam (https://dare.uva.nl) Download date:10 Oct 2021 Opinion polls of vote intentions play a prominent role in today’s political campaigns. Stolwijk B. Sjoerd and the bandwagon media, voters The is driving whom: Who When positive opinion poll results trigger additional support for a party, this is denoted as a “bandwagon eff ect”. This dissertation has added a communication Who is driving whom: science perspective to the study of the bandwagon eff ect, by evaluating how poll ratings infl uence party coverage, and how exposure to poll coverage across a campaign infl uences a voter’s campaign interest, emotions about parties, turnout The media, voters and vote choice. These questions have been investigated using panel surveys in combination with content analyses of media coverage and poll data relating to the German 2013 general (Bundestag) election campaign and the Dutch 2014 and the bandwagon election campaign to the European Parliament. Results show that: 1. Party coverage of a front runner party increases with a decrease in its poll ratings. 2. Exposure to poll coverage increases campaign interest and turnout. 3. Exposure to more favorable poll coverage about a party increases the odds of voting for this party, partly because of the increase in enthusiasm and decrease in anxiety felt about this party. The eff ect of polls on election outcomes is found to be a participatory act, resulting from the infl uence of various actors including pollsters, journalists, and voters themselves. Polls do incite emotions, which in turn infl uence attitudes towards parties. However, this is more likely an indication that voters are actively responding to campaign information, rather than that they are mindlessly following their herd instinct. Sjoerd B. Stolwijk 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk Cover.indd 1 09-01-17 11:30 Who is driving whom: The media, voters and the bandwagon Sjoerd B. Stolwijk 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 1 31-12-16 17:45 Who is driving whom: The media, voters and the bandwagon Cover and layout by Citroenvlinder DTP & Vormgeving, my.thesis.nl and Hidde Stolwijk Coverphoto: unknown Printed by GVO drukkers & vormgevers B.V. © 2017 Sjoerd B. Stolwijk ISBN: 978-94-6332-141-9 Amsterdam School of Communication Research / ASCOR Department of Communication, University of Amsterdam Nieuwe Achtergracht 166 1018 WV Amsterdam The Netherlands [email protected] 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 2 09-01-17 11:33 Who is driving whom: The media, voters and the bandwagon ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam op gezag van de Rector Magnificus mw. prof. dr. ir. K.I.J. Maex ten overstaan van een door het College voor Promoties ingestelde commissie, in het openbaar te verdedigen in de Agnietenkapel op donderdag 16 februari 2017, te 12:00 uur door Sjoerd Bauke Stolwijk geboren te Gouda 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 3 31-12-16 17:45 Promotiecommissie: Promotor: Prof. dr. C.H. de Vreese Universiteit van Amsterdam Copromotor: Dr. A.R.T. Schuck Universiteit van Amsterdam Overige leden: Dr. J.E. Möller Universiteit van Amsterdam Prof. dr. P. Moy University of Washington Prof. dr. C. Reinemann Ludwig-Maximilians- Universität München Prof. dr. T.W.G. van der Meer Universiteit van Amsterdam Prof. dr. R. Vliegenthart Universiteit van Amsterdam Faculteit der Maatschappij- en Gedragswetenschappen 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 4 31-12-16 17:45 Table of contents Introduction page 7 Chapter 1: page 31 All in the Game: Effects of Opinion Polls on Party Coverage in the 2013 German Election Campaign Chapter 2: page 63 More Interest in Interest: Does Poll Coverage Help or Hurt Efforts to Get Young Voters into the Ballot Box? Chapter 3: page 87 How Anxiety and Enthusiasm Help Explain the Bandwagon Effect Discussion and Conclusion page 111 References page 134 Appendix A page 146 Appendix B page 148 Appendix C page 149 Appendix D page 156 Appendix E page 160 Appendix F page 167 Appendix G page 168 Appendix H page 169 Appendix I page 170 English summary page 175 Nederlandse samenvatting page 179 Acknowledgement/Dankwoord page 183 Acknowledgements on authorship page 187 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 5 31-12-16 17:45 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 6 31-12-16 17:45 Introduction 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 7 31-12-16 17:45 Media, voters and the bandwagon Introduction Opinion polls of vote intentions play a prominent role in today’s political campaigns. They are heavily reported on in the media, they are used by politicians to inform their strategy, and many believe they have a profound influence on voters as well (Donsbach & Traugott, 2008). Especially, their assumed effects on voters are often criticized. In fact, the effects of polls are feared by citizens and politicians to such a degree that their publication is (partially) banned in a variety of countries. Petersen (2012) reports that 46% of all countries have some version of a ban on polls. Such bans are restrictions of the freedom of information, freedom of speech and freedom of the press, which are particularly noteworthy as they are reserved for polls, but not other campaign events. These bans are justified on the basis of the perceived effect of polls on election outcomes, which is supposedly normatively harmful for the democratic process (Petersen, 2012). Polls are believed to be very appealing to voters and overshadow other campaign information. In addition, they, allegedly, induce emotions that distract a voter from rationally forming a vote choice. Most studies into the effects of polls have investigated effects on vote choice and turnout levels (Hardmeier, 2008). However, such research has so far paid little attention to the role of the media, emotions or campaign interest. This dissertation will pick up these issues and investigate how polls help shape the coverage of parties in the media, how exposure to media poll coverage can influence turnout through campaign interest, and vote choice through the emotions they elicit. Studies in political science usually assume that people will find out about polls in some way and rather study how people respond to poll information. The mass media are an important information source for voters to get such poll information, yet few studies have investigated the influence of the media on the effect of polls. Media themselves are, in turn, becoming more and more reliant on poll information (see Holtz-Bacha & Strömbäck, 2012). Polls might influence media coverage, and the way polls are covered might influence their effects on voters. When considered across the time span of an election campaign, the influence of polls on the outcome of the election might thus involve various reciprocal processes. Polls express vote intentions, but might also influence them. Polls might influence media coverage, but the influence of that coverage 8 43743 Sjoerd Stolwijk.indd 8 31-12-16 17:45 Introduction on vote intentions will be reflected in the changes of those same polls. This dissertation presents three studies that each aim to examine a specific aspect of such reciprocal processes. The first study looks at the influence of poll ratings on how various media outlets cover parties over time within an election campaign. The second study deals with the effects of exposure to poll coverage, on interest in the campaign and turnout, and the third study investigates how exposure to poll coverage influences how people feel about parties and whether they (would change their) vote for them. These studies thus suggest three different kinds of consequences of polls over the course of a campaign. Their results can inform the construction of a model of poll effects that takes account of the potential reciprocal processes during a campaign. As these three studies look at specific aspects of a process which is likely rather complex, it is important to contextualize them within the larger literature. Polls and their effects have been debated from their very invention (Robinson, 1937), so starting with the history of this debate will set the stage, followed by a review of the empirical literature and the possible contribution a communication science perspective can make. It will be argued that when investigating the influence of poll coverage over the time span of an electoral campaign, many actors are involved like voters, journalists, politicians and their campaign teams. Each of them might shape interpretations and influence the effects of polls. The studies in this dissertation will make a start to incorporate each of them in the study of poll effects. The debate around polls Opinion polls of vote intentions aim to measure the will of the people.
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