INAF5610 December 2020 Beyond the Headlines: Forgotten Fragility in Ethiopia Prepared by: Vinussa Rameshshanker, Charlotte MacIntyre and Sydney Stewart Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Methods 3 Background 3 Stakeholders 4 End User 4 Internal 4 External 5 Fragility Risk Assessment 5 Primary Drivers of Fragility 6 Secondary Drivers of Fragility 11 ALC Analysis 16 Authority 17 Capacity 17 Legitimacy 18 Scenarios 18 Baseline (Most Likely) 18 Best Case 18 Worst Case 18 Wildcards 19 Policy Options 19 Option 1 19 Option 2 20 Option 3 21 Annexes 23 Annex 1: Regional State Profiles 23 Annex 2: Structural Causes of Fragility 28 Annex 3: Issue Map 30 Annex 4: Issue/Stakeholder Map 31 Annex 5: End User Profile 35 Annex 6: United Nations Entities in Ethiopia 37 Annex 7: Ethiopia’s Humanitarian Needs Overview Map 38 Annex 8: Human Development Index Rankings, Disaggregated by Regional State 39 Annex 9: Ethiopia’s Food Security Outlook Projections up to May 2021 40 Annex 10: Tigray Conflict Timeline 41 Annex 11: COVID-19 Data 42 Annex 12: Policy Option Measurement Frameworks 43 References 46 About the Authors Vinussa Rameshshanker completed her Bachelor of Public Health at the University of Waterloo, and is now pursuing a Master’s in International Affairs at Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Her interests include forced displacement, global governance of health and international development challenges, and post-conflict reconstruction of social service systems. Inquiries can be directed to
[email protected]. Charlotte MacIntyre is a first year MA candidate at Carleton’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.