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The Use of Traditional Environmental Knowledge to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Subsistence Fishing in the James Bay Region, Ontario, Canada by Yukari Hori A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfillment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Environmental Studies in Environment and Resource Studies Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2010 © Yukari Hori 2010 Author’s Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract This thesis used traditional environmental knowledge (TEK) to assess the impacts of climate change on food security for First Nations communities located in the western James Bay region of northern Ontario. In addition, climate scenarios were derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The TEK data revealed there were no observable climatic-related effects on fish species (i.e., distributional change) except the fish die-offs of July 2005. Climate data specific for the period of the fish die-offs in the Albany River (the western James Bay region) indicated not only a temporal relationship between a heat wave and the fish die-offs, but also a concurrent period of reduced precipitation. Climate scenarios showed increases in mean air temperature for all seasons, all time periods (2011– 2040, 2041– 2070, and 2071– 2100), and all emission scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1); however, the results for seasonal total precipitation were variable, dependent emission scenarios. TEK suggest that increasing temperatures may not be the only climate change phenomena of importance; climate variability and extreme events were reported as precipitating fish die-offs and changes in the timing of harvesting of fish. Further research should concentrate on the investigation of climate change and food security issues in sub-arctic regions. iii Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to sincerely thank Dr. Len Tsuji, my supervisor, for his invaluable guidance and assistance. I also acknowledge financial support from the Ontario Ministry of Research and Innovation, and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. I would like to thank Dr. William Gough and Benita Tam, Ph.D. candidate, in the Graduate Department of Geography, University of Toronto, for their knowledgeable expertise in climate models. I would also like to thank the western James Bay research project team for their collected TEK data used for this study. Especially, I would like to a special thank Kelly Skinner, Ph.D. candidate in the Health Studies and Gerontology, for her professional guidance and expertise in food security for First Nations communities in the James Bay region. A big thank you must go to all my classmates, friends, and family for always supporting and encouraging me over the past two years. I give heartfelt thanks to Elaine, Heather, Mary-Beth, and Michelle, my “regular” thesis mates, for helping me to relax, cheering me up when I needed, for sharing a great time with me. iv Finally, I would like to thank all the staff, students, and members at the ERS who have made a wonderful experience in my Master’s research. v Table of Contents Author’s Declaration ....................................................................................................................... ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix Overview ..........................................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................4 Climate Variability and Extremes ............................................................................................... 4 Vegetation and Wildlife .............................................................................................................. 5 Projecting Future Climate Trends ............................................................................................... 6 General Circulation Models ........................................................................................................ 9 Regional Climate Models .......................................................................................................... 11 Scenario Uncertainties ............................................................................................................... 13 Food Security for Aboriginals in Northern Canada .................................................................. 14 Climate Change and Food Security in Northern Aboriginal Communities .............................. 16 Aboriginal Perspectives on Traditional Foods .......................................................................... 20 Benefits of Traditional Foods .................................................................................................... 21 Chapter 2 The use of traditional environmental knowledge to assess the impact of climate change on subsistence fishing in the James Bay region, Ontario, Canada ............................................23 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 23 vi Methods ..................................................................................................................................... 29 The study area ........................................................................................................................... 29 Traditional environmental knowledge ...................................................................................... 32 Climate data ............................................................................................................................... 35 Climate scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 36 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 39 Traditional environmental knowledge ...................................................................................... 39 Climate data ............................................................................................................................... 41 Climate scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 45 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 57 Chapter 3 Conclusions and Recommendations for Future Studies ................................................67 References ......................................................................................................................................69 vii List of Figures Figure 1. Study area of the western James Bay region. .......................................................... 31 Figure 2. The daily maximum temperature (solid line), daily minimum temperature (dashed line), and daily total precipitation (bars) for June, July, and August 2005.. ...........43 Figure 3. The relationship between homogenized-monthly, mean-maximum temperature (°C) and year in summer (June, July, and August) for the period 1960-2006. .............. 44 Figure 4. The baseline projections (1961-1990) of the summer mean temperature and total precipitation for 24 General Circulation Models and four Regional Climate Models.. .................................................................................................................. 46 Figure 5. The baseline projections (1961-1990) of the autumn/fall mean temperature and total precipitation for 24 General Circulation Models and four Regional Climate Models.. .................................................................................................................. 47 Figure 6.The baseline projections (1961-1990) of the winter mean temperature and total precipitation for 24 General Circulation Models and four Regional Climate Models. ................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 7. The baseline projections (1961-1990) of the spring mean temperature and total precipitation for 24 General Circulation Models and four Regional Climate Models. ................................................................................................................... 49 viii List of Tables Table 1. Summary of the daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily mean temperature