DOCSLIB.ORG

Hurricane Gonzalo Information from NHC Advisory 20A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday October 17, 2014 Dangerous Hurricane Gonzalo Is Heading for Bermuda

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Hurricane Gonzalo Information from NHC Advisory 20A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday October 17, 2014 Dangerous Hurricane Gonzalo Is Heading for Bermuda HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Gonzalo Information from NHC Advisory 20A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday October 17, 2014 Dangerous Hurricane Gonzalo is heading for Bermuda. Gonzalo is likely to bring damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge. On the forecast track, the eye of Gonzalo will be near Bermuda this afternoon or tonight. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 130 mph Position Relative to 195 miles SSW of Bermuda Speed: (cat. 3) Land: Est. Time & Region: Today on Bermuda Min Central Pressure: 946 mb Coordinates: 29.9 N, 66.5 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 175 miles Bearing/Speed: NNE or 25 degrees at 15 mph 111+ mph (cat. 3+) Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Gonzalo approaching Bermuda as a major hurricane with 111+ mph winds. The NHC gives Bermuda a 95% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within the next 24 hours. The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track. To illustrate the uncertainty in Gonzalo’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray – most of these appear faintly underneath the windfield and take Gonzalo near Bermuda. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. It should be noted that wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hilly terrain are often up to 30% stronger than at the surface, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Bermuda. Large swells generated by Gonzalo are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, portions of the Bahamas, the southeast coast of the U.S., and Bermuda. These swells will spread along the U.S. East Coast today. Forecast Track for Gonzalo Forecast Windfield for Gonzalo (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. © Copyright 2014 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane warning- meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours – is in effect for Bermuda. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion this morning. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2014 Atlantic Season to Date 2014 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 10/17/14) 7 6 2 2013 year to date (1/1/13 – 10/17/13) 11 2 0 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2014 CSU season forecasts 10 4 1 (Colorado State University at July 31) 2014 NOAA season forecasts 8-13 3-6 1-2 (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 7) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2014 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Gonzalo is the seventh named storm, sixth hurricane, and second The graph above shows 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Eleven named average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It storms and two hurricanes, Humberto and Ingrid, had occurred by this shows, for example, that Gonzalo became the seventh named storm date last year. The next tropical storm of 2014 will be named Hanna. of the season on October 12 which is later than the average occurrence of the season’s seventh named storm. The graph also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. No new both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average tropical cyclones are expected to develop within the next 48 hours. remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Oct 17 is 10% for all hurricanes and 7% for major hurricanes. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 17, 2014 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review
    2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review WHITEPAPER Executive Summary The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a quiet season, closing with eight 2014 marks the named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or longest period on stronger). record – nine Forecast groups predicted that the formation of El Niño and below consecutive years average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main – that no major Development Region (MDR)1 through the season would inhibit hurricanes made development in 2014, leading to a below average season. While 2014 landfall over the was indeed quiet, these predictions didn’t materialize. U.S. The scientific community has attributed the low activity in 2014 to a number of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, predominantly anomalously low Atlantic mid-level moisture, anomalously high tropical Atlantic subsidence (sinking air) in the Main Development Region (MDR), and strong wind shear across the Caribbean. Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin was also influenced by below average activity in the 2014 West African monsoon season, which suppressed the development of African easterly winds. The year 2014 marks the longest period on record – nine consecutive years since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 – that no major hurricanes made landfall over the U.S., and also the ninth consecutive year that no hurricane made landfall over the coastline of Florida. The U.S. experienced only one landfalling hurricane in 2014, Hurricane Arthur. Arthur made landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane on July 4, causing minor damage. While Mexico and Central America were impacted by two landfalling storms and the Caribbean by three, Bermuda suffered the most substantial damage due to landfalling storms in 2014.Hurricane Fay and Major Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall on the island within a week of each other, on October 12 and October 18, respectively.
    [Show full text]
  • National Hurricane Operations Plan
    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OFFICE OF THE FEDERAL COORDINATOR FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH National Hurricane Operations Plan FCM-P12-2015 Washington, DC May 2015 THE INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH (ICMSSR) MR. DAVID McCARREN, CHAIR MR. PAUL FONTAINE Acting Federal Coordinator Federal Aviation Administration Department of Transportation MR. MARK BRUSBERG Department of Agriculture DR. JONATHAN M. BERKSON United States Coast Guard DR. LOUIS UCCELLINI Department of Homeland Security Department of Commerce DR. DAVID R. REIDMILLER MR. SCOTT LIVEZEY Department of State United States Navy Department of Defense DR. ROHIT MATHUR Environmental Protection Agency MR. RALPH STOFFLER United States Air Force DR. EDWARD CONNER Department of Defense Federal Emergency Management Agency Department of Homeland Security MR. RICKEY PETTY Department of Energy DR. RAMESH KAKAR National Aeronautics and Space MR. JOEL WALL Administration Science and Technology Directorate Department of Homeland Security DR. PAUL B. SHEPSON National Science Foundation MR. JOHN VIMONT Department of the Interior MR. DONALD E. EICK National Transportation Safety Board MR. MARK KEHRLI Federal Highway Administration MR. SCOTT FLANDERS Department of Transportation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission MR. MICHAEL C. CLARK Office of Management and Budget MR. MICHAEL BONADONNA, Secretariat Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research Cover Image NOAA GOES-13, 15 October 2014; Hurricane Gonzalo; Credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory FEDERAL COORDINATOR FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH 1325 East-West Highway, Suite 7130 Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 301-628-0112 http://www.ofcm.gov/ NATIONAL HURRICANE OPERATIONS PLAN http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/15/nhop15.htm FCM-P12-2015 Washington, D.C.
    [Show full text]
  • Autumn 2014 Severe Weather by Mark Wool
    READ ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURRED IN ISSUE 9 Winter 2014-15 THE REGION THIS AU- TUMN……………………...1 EMPLOYEE SPOTLIGHT: MEET OUR LEAD FORECASTER, JEFF FOURNIER.............. 2 CLIMATE RECAP FOR AUTUMN OUTLOOK FOR WIN- TER ............................. 4 Tallahassee NEWS AND NOTES FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE . topics The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Tallahassee, FL provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for Southeast Ala- bama, Southwest & South Central Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico coastal waters. Our primary mission is the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the local economy. Autumn 2014 Severe Weather By Mark Wool Autumn was characterized by long stretches of dry Blountstown, FL. This was only the third EF2 or weather. From September 17th to November 30th, stronger tornado to hit the NWS Tallahassee fore- there were only 11 days with measurable rain. cast area since March 2007. A detailed report, However, there were three severe weather events including damage photos, a loop of radar data and this fall, including a rare mid-October event, and a photo gallery, are available for this event via this an equally unusual multi-day stretch of persistent link. A couple of photos are pictured below right. rain in the run up to Thanksgiving. The lion’s share of the rainfall that occurred across the region http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/?n=event- in October was associated with a severe weather 20141117_blountstown_tornado event that occurred on October 13-14th. Tallahas- see received 4.74 inches at the airport.
    [Show full text]
  • American Meteorological Society Manuscript (Non-Latex) Click Here to Download Manuscript (Non-Latex) Glider Manuscript Jdong Etal Rev V2.Docx
    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author-produced manuscript that has been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication. Since it is being posted so soon after acceptance, it has not yet been copyedited, formatted, or processed by AMS Publications. This preliminary version of the manuscript may be downloaded, distributed, and cited, but please be aware that there will be visual differences and possibly some content differences between this version and the final published version. The DOI for this manuscript is doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0182.1 The final published version of this manuscript will replace the preliminary version at the above DOI once it is available. If you would like to cite this EOR in a separate work, please use the following full citation: Dong, J., R. Domingues, G. Goni, G. Halliwell, H. Kim, S. Lee, M. Mehari, F. Bringas, J. Morell, and L. Pomales, 2017: Impact of assimilating underwater glider data on Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) forecast. Wea. Forecasting. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0182.1, in press. © 2017 American Meteorological Society Manuscript (non-LaTeX) Click here to download Manuscript (non-LaTeX) Glider_Manuscript_JDong_etal_rev_v2.docx 1 2 Impact of assimilating underwater glider data 3 on Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) forecast 4 5 6 Jili Dong1,2*, Ricardo Domingues3,4, Gustavo Goni4, George Halliwell4, Hyun-Sook 7 Kim1,2, Sang-Ki Lee4, Michael Mehari3,4, Francis Bringas4, Julio Morell5, Luis Pomales5 8 9 10 1I.M. System Group, Inc., Rockville, MD,
    [Show full text]
  • The Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary – 2014
    THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON SUMMARY – 2014 SPECIAL FOCUS ON ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA (PRELIMINARY) Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section December 4, 2014 Satellite Image: Hurricane Gonzalo – Oct 13, 12:45 pm 2014 1 The Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary – 2014 Special Focus on Antigua and Barbuda Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section December 3, 2014 The Season in Brief The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was relatively quiet generally but relatively average for Antigua. It produced eight (8) named storms. Of the eight (8) storms, six (6) became hurricanes and two reached major hurricane status - category three (3) or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The strongest tropical cyclone for the season was Major Hurricane Gonzalo with peak winds of 145 mph and minimum pressure of 940 mb (see figure 2). Gonzalo impacted Antigua and Barbuda and most of the other northeast Caribbean islands causing loss of lives and 100s of millions of dollars in damage. Relative to Antigua and Barbuda Relative to Antigua and Barbuda, the rest of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands, two (2) tropical cyclones entered or formed in our defined monitored area (10N 40W – 10N 55W – 15N 70W – 20N 70W – 20N 55W – 15N 40W – 10N 40W) - Bertha and Gonzalo. Gonzalo impacted the northeast Caribbean with hurricane force winds, passing directly over Antigua, St. Martin and Anguilla. This is the first time since Jose in 1999, Antigua has had sustained hurricane force winds, ending our 14 year hurricane drought. In terms of number of named storms, it was not a quiet season for Antigua but rather an average one; however, with respect to hurricanes, we were a year over due since one affects us every three years on average.
    [Show full text]
  • ! 1! NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Investigation
    https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170005486 2019-08-31T16:22:19+00:00Z 1! NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Investigation 2! 3! Scott A. Braun, Paul A. Newman, Gerald M. Heymsfield 4! NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 5! 6! Submitted to Bulletin of the American Meteor. Society 7! October 14, 2015 8! 9! 10! 11! Corresponding author: Scott A. Braun, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 612, 12! Greenbelt, MD 20771 13! Email: [email protected] 14! ! 1! 15! Abstract 16! The National Aeronautics and Space Administrations’s (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm 17! Sentinel (HS3) investigation was a multi-year field campaign designed to improve understanding 18! of the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the 19! relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. Funded as part of NASA’s Earth 20! Venture program, HS3 conducted five-week campaigns during the hurricane seasons of 2012-14 21! using the NASA Global Hawk aircraft, along with a second Global Hawk in 2013 and a WB-57f 22! aircraft in 2014. Flying from a base at Wallops Island, Virginia, the Global Hawk could be on 23! station over storms for up to 18 hours off the East Coast of the U.S. to about 6 hours off the 24! western coast of Africa. Over the three years, HS3 flew 21 missions over 9 named storms, along 25! with flights over two non-developing systems and several Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreaks. 26! This article summarizes the HS3 experiment, the missions flown, and some preliminary findings 27! related to the rapid intensification and outflow structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014) and the 28! interaction of Hurricane Nadine (2012) with the SAL.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloaded 10/04/21 03:03 AM UTC 1144 WEATHER and FORECASTING VOLUME 32
    JUNE 2017 D O N G E T A L . 1143 Impact of Assimilating Underwater Glider Data on Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) Forecasts a,b c,d d d JILI DONG, RICARDO DOMINGUES, GUSTAVO GONI, GEORGE HALLIWELL, a,b d c,d d HYUN-SOOK KIM, SANG-KI LEE, MICHAEL MEHARI, FRANCIS BRINGAS, e e JULIO MORELL, AND LUIS POMALES a I. M. System Group, Inc., Rockville, Maryland b Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch, NOAA/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland c Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida d Physical Oceanography Division, NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida e Department of Marine Sciences, University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico (Manuscript received 21 October 2016, in final form 14 March 2017) ABSTRACT The initialization of ocean conditions is essential to coupled tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. This study investigates the impact of ocean observation assimilation, particularly underwater glider data, on high- resolution coupled TC forecasts. Using the coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model–Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) system, numerical experiments are performed by as- similating underwater glider observations alone and with other standard ocean observations for the forecast of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014). The glider observations are able to provide valuable information on subsurface ocean thermal and saline structure, even with their limited spatial coverage along the storm track and the relatively small amount of data assimilated. Through the assimilation of underwater glider observations, the prestorm thermal and saline structures of initial upper-ocean conditions are significantly improved near the location of glider observations, though the impact is localized because of the limited coverage of glider data.
    [Show full text]
  • MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
    MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories.
    [Show full text]
  • The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic
    15 APRIL 2017 L I U E T A L . 2739 The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic MAOFENG LIU Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey GABRIEL A. VECCHI Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey JAMES A. SMITH Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey HIROYUKI MURAKAMI Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey (Manuscript received 2 May 2016, in final form 10 December 2016) ABSTRACT This study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic, with a newly developed global climate model: the Forecast- Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location.
    [Show full text]
  • 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ANNUAL SUMMARY 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON Richard J. Pasch 1 May 2015 NASA MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 1745 UTC 16 OCTOBER 2014 ABSTRACT The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was below average in several respects. Although the number of hurricanes, six, equaled the long-term average, there were two major hurricanes (category 3 or higher intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) and eight named storms, compared to the long- term averages of three and 12, respectively. The NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is a measure of the strength and duration of (sub)tropical storms and hurricanes, was about 72% of the long-term median. Although most of the tropical cyclone activity occurred well east of the east coast of the United States, Hurricane Arthur made landfall on the North Carolina coast in July. Bermuda was hit by two hurricanes, Fay and Gonzalo, in less than a week’s time in October. 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season 2 OVERVIEW Tropical cyclone activity was somewhat below average in the Atlantic basin during 2014. Eight tropical storms formed, of which six became hurricanes, and two intensified into major hurricanes. In comparison the long-term (1981-2010) averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for 2014 was 72% of the long-term median. While most land areas were spared from tropical cyclones in 2014, Hurricane Arthur made landfall on the North Carolina coast, and Bermuda was struck by Hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo within a six-day period.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricanes.Ca
    2014 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SUMMARY Canadian Hurricane Centre Meteorological Service of Canada 45 Alderney Drive Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada Cat. No.: En55-8E-PDF Unless otherwise specified, you may not reproduce materials in this publication, in whole or in part, for the purposes of commercial redistribution without prior written permission from Environment Canada's copyright administrator. To obtain permission to reproduce Government of Canada materials for commercial purposes, apply for Crown Copyright Clearance by contacting: Environment Canada Inquiry Centre 10 Wellington Street, 23rd Floor Gatineau QC K1A 0H3 Telephone: 819-997-2800 Toll Free: 1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only) Fax: 819-994-1412 TTY: 819-994-0736 Email: [email protected] © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of the Environment, 2015 Aussi disponible en français Canadian Hurricane Centre Meteorological Service of Canada 45 Alderney Drive Dartmouth, Nova Scotia B2Y 2N6 CANADA Website: www.hurricanes.ca 2014 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SUMMARY After a very inactive season in 2013 for storms of tropical origin affecting Canadian territory, 2014 was significantly more active. The first storm to affect Canada was very early in the season. Post-Tropical Storm Arthur brought hurricane-force gusts and caused significant damage to trees and the electrical grid in the Maritimes on July 5th and 6th. A weakened Arthur gave strong gusty winds to Newfoundland later on July 6th, however these winds remained below warning criteria. The next two storms activating the Canadian Hurricane Centre’s (CHC) operations, Bertha and Cristobal, had relatively minimal impact over land in Canada.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane GPROF: an Optimized Ocean Microwave Rainfall Retrieval for Tropical Cyclones
    JULY 2016 B R O W N E T A L . 1539 Hurricane GPROF: An Optimized Ocean Microwave Rainfall Retrieval for Tropical Cyclones PAULA J. BROWN,CHRISTIAN D. KUMMEROW, AND DAVID L. RANDEL Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 17 November 2015, in final form 18 May 2016) ABSTRACT The Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF) is an operational passive microwave retrieval that uses a Bayesian scheme to estimate rainfall. GPROF 2014 retrieves rainfall and hydrometeor vertical profile in- formation based upon a database of profiles constructed to be simultaneously consistent with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) ob- servations. A small number of tropical cyclones are in the current database constructed from one year of TRMM data, resulting in the retrieval performing relatively poorly for these systems, particularly for the highest rain rates. To address this deficiency, a new database focusing specifically on hurricanes but consisting of 9 years of TRMM data is created. The new database and retrieval procedure for TMI and GMI is called Hurricane GPROF. An initial assessment of seven tropical cyclones shows that Hurricane GPROF provides a better estimate of hurricane rain rates than GPROF 2014. Hurricane GPROF rain-rate errors relative to the PR are reduced by 20% compared to GPROF, with improvements in the lowest and highest rain rates es- pecially. Vertical profile retrievals for four hydrometeors are also enhanced, as error is reduced by 30% compared to the GPROF retrieval, relative to PR estimates. When compared to the full database of tropical cyclones, Hurricane GPROF improves the RMSE and MAE of rain-rate estimates over those from GPROF by about 22% and 27%, respectively.
    [Show full text]