HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Gonzalo Information from NHC Advisory 20A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday October 17, 2014 Dangerous Hurricane Gonzalo is heading for . Gonzalo is likely to bring damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge. On the forecast track, the of Gonzalo will be near Bermuda this afternoon or tonight.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 130 mph Position Relative to 195 miles SSW of Bermuda Speed: (cat. 3) Land: Est. Time & Region: Today on Bermuda Min Central Pressure: 946 mb Coordinates: 29.9 N, 66.5 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 175 miles Bearing/Speed: NNE or 25 degrees at 15 mph 111+ mph (cat. 3+) Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Gonzalo approaching Bermuda as a major hurricane with 111+ mph winds. The NHC gives Bermuda a 95% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within the next 24 hours.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track. To illustrate the uncertainty in Gonzalo’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray – most of these appear faintly underneath the windfield and take Gonzalo near Bermuda.  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. It should be noted that wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hilly terrain are often up to 30% stronger than at the surface, and in some elevated locations can be even greater.  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Bermuda.  Large swells generated by Gonzalo are affecting portions of the , the northern coasts of and the Dominican Republic, portions of , the southeast coast of the U.S., and Bermuda. These swells will spread along the U.S. East Coast today. Forecast Track for Gonzalo Forecast Windfield for Gonzalo (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

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A hurricane warning- meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours – is in effect for Bermuda. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion this morning.

Summary of Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2014 Atlantic Season to Date 2014 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011

Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 10/17/14) 7 6 2

2013 year to date (1/1/13 – 10/17/13) 11 2 0

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7

2014 CSU season forecasts 10 4 1 (Colorado State University at July 31)

2014 NOAA season forecasts 8-13 3-6 1-2 (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 7)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2014 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Gonzalo is the seventh named storm, sixth hurricane, and second The graph above shows 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Eleven named average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It storms and two hurricanes, Humberto and Ingrid, had occurred by this shows, for example, that Gonzalo became the seventh named storm date last year. The next tropical storm of 2014 will be named Hanna. of the season on October 12 which is later than the average occurrence of the season’s seventh named storm. The graph also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2

hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. No new both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average tropical cyclones are expected to develop within the next 48 hours. remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Oct 17 is 10% for all hurricanes and 7% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 17, 2014 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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