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A Precipitation-Runoff Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Water Withdrawals and Land-Use Change on Streamflow in the Usquepaug–Queen River Basin, Rhode Island

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A Precipitation-Runoff Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Water Withdrawals and Land-Use Change on Streamflow in the Usquepaug–Queen River Basin, Rhode Island A Precipitation-Runoff Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Water Withdrawals and Land-Use Change on Streamflow in the Usquepaug–Queen River Basin, Rhode Island By Phillip J. Zarriello and Gardner C. Bent Prepared in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5139 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior Gale A. Norton, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Charles G. Groat, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2004 For sale by U.S. Geological Survey, Information Services Box 25286, Denver Federal Center Denver, CO 80225 For more information about the USGS and its products: Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/ Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Suggested citation: Zarriello, P.J., and Bent, G.C., 2004, A precipitation-runoff model for the analysis of the effects of water withdrawals and land-use change on streamflow in the Usquepaug–Queen River Basin, Rhode Island: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5139, 75 p. iii Contents Abstract. 1 Introduction . 2 Purpose and Scope . 2 Previous Investigations. 2 Description of the Basin . 3 Time-Series Data . 10 Climate . 10 Water Withdrawals . 11 Data Collection . 13 Logistic-Regression Equation to Predict Irrigation Withdrawals . 13 Distribution of Daily Irrigation Withdrawals. 14 Streamflow. 14 Continuous-Record Stations . 16 Partial-Record Stations. 16 Precipitation-Runoff Model . 18 Functional Description of Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN. 18 Database . 19 Representation of the Basin . 22 Development of Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) . 22 Impervious Areas (IMPLNDs) . 22 Pervious Areas (PERLNDs). 24 Stream Reaches (RCHRES) . 24 Model Calibration. 27 Tributary Streams . 29 Ground-Water Underflow. 33 Simulated Hydrologic Budgets and Flow Components. 34 Sensitivity Analysis. 38 Model Uncertainty and Limitations . 39 Hydrologic Effects of Water Withdrawals and Land-Use Change. 42 Current Withdrawals and No Withdrawals . 42 Converting from Surface- to Ground-Water Withdrawals. 48 Potential Withdrawals at the Former Ladd School Water-Supply Wells . 51 Land-Use Change. 54 Summary . 61 Acknowledgments . 63 References Cited. 63 Appendix 1: Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN User Control File (uci) Input for Pervious-Area Model Variables. 67 Appendix 2: Model-Fit Statistics Computed with the PEST Surface-Water Utilities Program. 73 iv Figures 1–6. Maps of the Usquepaug–Queen River Basin showing: 1. Location, climate stations, and index streamflow-gaging stations used to develop continuous records at partial record stations, Rhode Island . 4 2. Continuous- and partial-record streamflow-gaging stations . 5 3. Generalized surficial geology . 7 4. Generalized wetlands . 8 5. Generalized land use and land cover . 9 6. Principal withdrawal locations. 12 7. Graph showing observed average daily irrigation patterns for A, individual turf- farms withdrawals; and B, combined withdrawals. 15 8. Schematic showing simplified representation of the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) inflows and outflows to a stream. 20 9. Graph showing area as a percentage of the intervening basin area between streamflow-gaging stations Queen River at Exeter (QRPB), Queen River at Liberty (QRLY), and Usquepaug River near Usquepaug (USQU), for hydrologic response units (HRUs) in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model . 23 10. Map showing model reaches and subbasin boundaries developed for the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model . 25 11–28. Graphs showing: 11. Precipitation at A, FBWR, and daily mean discharge simulated by the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) and observed discharge at streamflow-gaging stations B, Queen River at Exeter (QRPB); C, Queen River at Liberty (QRLY); and D, Usquepaug River near Usquepaug (USQU), Usquepaug–Queen River Basin, January 2000 through September 2001 . 30 12. Relation of Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) simulated discharge to observed discharge at streamflow-gaging stations A, Queen River at Exeter (QRPB); B, Queen River at Liberty (QRLY); and C, Usquepaug River near Usquepaug (USQU), January 2000 through September 2001 . 31 13. Flow-duration curves of daily mean discharges simulated by the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) and observed discharges at streamflow- gaging stations A, Queen River at Exeter (QRPB); B, Queen River at Liberty (QRLY); and C, Usquepaug River near Usquepaug (USQU), January 2000 through September 2001 . 32 14. Simulated and estimated daily mean discharge at Queens Fort Brook (model reach 8), January 2000 through September 2001 . 33 15. Calibration-period water budget by component from each hydrologic response unit simulated by the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model, in inches A, per acre; and B, over the entire basin, January 2000 through September 2001 . 35 16. Wet-month water budget by component from each hydrologic response unit simulated by the Hydrologic Simulation Program –FORTRAN (HSPF) model, in inches A, per acre; and B, over the entire basin, March 2001 . 36 v 17. Dry-month water budget by component from each hydrologic response unit simulated by the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model, in inches A, per acre; and B, over the entire basin, October 2000. .37 18. Summary of water budgets by component averaged over all hydrologic response units simulated by the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model for A, the calibration period—January 1, 2000, through.
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