Combat Logistics Force Levels: Methodology and Results

CRM D0006315.A2/Final October 2002

Wendy R Trickey • Burnham C. McCaffree Jr.

4825 Mark Center Drive • Alexandria, Virginia 22311-1850 Approved for distribution: October 2002

Integrated Systems and Operations Division

This document represents the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. does not necessarily represent the opinion of the Department of the Navy. It

Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. Specific authority: N00014-00-D-0700. For copies of this document call: CNA Document Control and Distribution Section at 703-824-2123

Summary ...... 1 Background and methodology ...... 1 Results ...... 2

Introduction ...... 5

Timeline methodology and assumptions ...... 9 Timeline description ...... 9 Peacetime presence requirements ...... 10 Initial use of presence requirements in the timeline methodology ...... 10 Current presence requirements ...... 11 CLF presence requirements during Operation Enduring Freedom ...... 12 Post-OEF CLF presence requirements ...... 12 Timeline assumptions ...... 14 Maintenance ...... 14 AOE workup for deployment...... 16 Transit between theaters ...... 16 Deployment lengths ...... 17 AOE conversions ...... 18 CLF transition...... 18 FDNF carrier battle group ...... 19

Other considerations ...... 21 Presence requirements...... 21 Timeline limitations ...... 22

Force structure requirements and capabilities ...... 25 CLF Alternative I ...... 26 Near-term period (2003-2006) ...... 26 Mid-term period (2007-2015) ...... 28 Far-term period (2016-2020) ...... 30

i CLF Alternative II ...... 31 Near-term period ...... 32 Mid-term period (2007-2015) ...... 32 Far-term period (2016-2020) ...... 34 Summary of results ...... 35 Alternative III ...... 38

Conclusions ...... 39

Appendix...... 41

References ...... 55

List of figures ...... 57

List of tables ...... 59

Distribution list ...... 61

ii Summary

Background and methodology

The Director, Strategic Mobility and Combat Logistics Division (N42) in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations recently asked CNA to investigate the future force structure of the Combat Logistics Force (CLF) based on current peacetime presence requirements. The sponsor was interested in finding what changes in force structure will be needed due to:

• The retirement of legacy ships and the commissioning of new ships

• New assumptions based on maintenance and transit between theaters

• Post-September 11 combatant requirements.

We used a timeline methodology to assess the capabilities of a specific force structure in meeting CLF peacetime presence requirements. The timelines use peacetime carrier battle group (CVBG) schedules as a guideline for CLF ship scheduling. We investigated two transition plans in this report: one with a transition to 12 T-AKEs that we called Alternative I1, and one with a transition to 9 T-AKEs and 4 T-AOE(X)s that we called Alternative II. These new ships replace 17 legacy ships—4 AOE-1s, 6 T-AFSs, and 7 T-AEs. We used a timeline of 2003 to 2020, which covers three phases:

• From 2003 through 2006, the near-term future, when the legacy ships are still operational

1. Alternative I is similar to the Navy’s Program of Record as of Spring 2002.

1 • From 2007 through 2015, the mid-term future, during which the CLF transitions from legacy classes to the new classes, including the Military Sealift Command (MSC) civilian modifi- cation (CIVMOD) alterations that the T-AOE-6s will require

• From 2016 through 2020, the far-term future, when all legacy ships have been retired and all T-AKEs and T-AOE(X)s have become operational in the fleet.

These timelines enabled us to construct force-level transition plans for the CLF that show, year by year, the number of:

• CLF ships of each type that are needed in a full operating status (FOS) to meet prescribed peacetime presence requirements2

• AOEs that are undergoing conversion from Navy operation to MSC operation and, later, are in extended maintenance to receive the CIVMOD alteration

• T-AKEs and T-AOE(X)s that have been delivered and have begun full operation

• Legacy ships that have been retired.

Based on the results of the timelines, we also investigated in less detail a third alternative, Alternative III, which transitions to a CLF of 11 T-AKEs and 2 T-AOE(X)s.

Results

To meet the presence requirements with any Alternative in the near- term years, we determined that it was necessary to activate two T-AOs and two T-AEs from ROS to FOS early in FY 2003, resulting in 15 FOS T-AOs and 6 FOS T-AEs. We found that if the (T)-AOEs [this notation refers to all AOEs in the near-term future] in WestLant are used as shuttle ships when they are there for times beyond the (T)-AOE

2. While we do not propose building ships for the purpose of putting them in a reduced operational status (ROS), we found that not all CLF ships in our timelines are continuously required in FOS to fulfill peacetime presence requirements, and we have placed those ships in ROS.

2 presence requirement, it is not necessary to activate either a T-AO or a T-AE in FY 2003, and it may not be necessary to activate both of those ships.

During the transition, from 2007 to 2016, the total number of CLF ships gradually decreases as new classes of ships enter the fleet, because each ship replaces one or two legacy ships. The number of FOS ships fluctuates and eventually decreases by 2015.

In the final 5 years, 2016 to 2020, the transition is complete and no ships are undergoing conversion. Table 1 shows a summary of the two alternative CLFs that we used in our transition plans, plus the third alternative that we did not investigate with a timeline. All alternatives are able to provide much of the required peacetime presence.

Table 1. Alternative CLF force levels in the far-term (2016-2020)

Ship Type Alternative I Alternative II Alternative III FOS ROS FOS ROS FOS ROS T-AOE-6404040 T-AOE(X)002220 T-AO 15 1 14 2 14 2 T-AKE 1119092 Total 302294294

Alternative I in the far-term future would have 30 ships in FOS, with two shuttle ships (a T-AO and a T-AKE) in ROS that could be activated to serve either as shuttle ships or, together, as a substitute CVBG station ship. Alternative II would have 29 FOS ships, plus two new- construction T-AOE(X)s in ROS that could be activated to serve as station ships, and two T-AOs in ROS.

If all four T-AOE(X)s in Alternative II were maintained in FOS, the excess T-AOE(X) presence could be applied to the shuttle ship requirements of the T-AO and T-AKE. Consequently, an additional T-AO and/or a T-AKE could probably be placed in ROS.

3 Alternative III is an adjustment from Alternative II that does not contain the excess T-AOE(X)s in ROS. It includes 11 T-AKEs, 6 T-AOEs, and 16 T-AOs, totaling 33 ships. Of these ships, two T-AOs and two T-AKEs are in ROS. The ROS T-AKEs could be activated to act as substitute CVBG station ships (with the T-AOs) if needed, and could also help to fulfill the shuttle T-AKE requirements.

To summarize:

• All alternatives are identical in the near term in composition and thus in the peacetime presence they provide.

• During most of the mid-term transition period, Alternative II requires slightly (1-2) more ships and generates slightly more presence in home waters than Alternative I (they do equally well in overseas theaters).

• In the far-term future, Alternative I requires one more FOS ship than Alternative II, and the two alternatives are comparable in fulfilling presence requirements.

4 Introduction

The CLF is composed of the ships whose mission is to provide logistics support to Navy ships, with fuel, ordnance, food, repair parts, and other stores. These ships enable combatants to remain on station and continue their primary mission, without having to resupply at a port. They are particularly important when combatants are unable to receive supplies from local ports in theater because force protection measures do not allow it.

The current CLF consists of four types of ships:

• The fast combat support ship, the AOE, which is a triple-product ship having storage space for fuel, ordnance, and dry and refrigerated stores. The AOE primarily serves as a carrier battle group station ship—it replenishes combatant ships of the CVBG during transits as well as in the overseas theater. There are eight AOEs—four AOE-1 class ships and four AOE-6 class ships. One AOE-6 class ship has been transferred to the MSC, one is currently undergoing the transfer, and the other two will be transferred by 2005. The Navy plans to decommission the four AOE-1s from 2006 to 2007.

• The fleet oiler of the T-AO 187 class, which carries Diesel Fuel Marine (DFM) for ships’ propulsion and JP-5 jet fuel for aircraft. There are currently 16 T-AOs, all operated by the MSC. Two of these ships are in Category B (Cat B) in the National Defense Reserve Fleet and one is in ROS. They are 10 to 15 years old.

• The combat stores ship, MSC-operated T-AFS, carries dry and refrigerated stores and provisions. All six T-AFSs are in FOS. Most of them are over 30 years old, and they are scheduled to be decommissioned starting in about 2008.

5 • The ammunition ship, the T-AE. Four of these ships are in FOS and operated by MSC and three are in ROS. These ships are scheduled to be decommissioned over the next 10 years.

The T-AO, T-AFS, and T-AE serve as shuttle ships, transiting between the closest resupply port and the combatants at sea. They replenish the CVBG station ship, and also directly resupply combatants. When necessary, a T-AO and T-AE together serve as a substitute CVBG station ship.

The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) Global Naval Force Pres- ence Policy (GNFPP) states the number of Navy combatant ships that must be present in each overseas theater during the year. For example, a presence requirement of 0.50 for the aircraft carrier implies that a carrier must be in the theater for half of the year—183 out of 365 days. The GNFPP presence values are based on the JCS’s assessment of the amount of combatant ship presence required in the several theaters for national defense and other priorities. Based on these combatant presence requirements, the Navy Fleet commanders determine the CLF ship presence needed in each theater to support this force.

From these CLF presence requirements, it is necessary to determine the force structure required to meet them. For example, if a theater had a 1.0 presence requirement for a certain type of ship, more than one of those ships would be needed to meet the requirement, due to maintenance, transit times, deployment length restrictions, and other scheduling considerations.

The Director, Strategic Mobility and Combat Logistics Division (OPNAV N42), asked CNA to investigate future CLF force structure requirements based on current presence requirements and ship acquisition plans. The sponsor wanted to find out what changes in force structure will be needed due to:

• The retirement of legacy ships and the commissioning of new ships

• New assumptions based on maintenance and transit between theaters

6 • Post-September 11 combatant requirements.

We used an assessment methodology that enables us to calculate and display the CLF force structure year by year. This methodology involves creating timelines in which we schedule each CLF ship month by month, and then calculate the cumulative presence of each ship type in each theater. The results allow us to assess the capabilities of a particular force structure to meet all specified presence requirements.

The methodology also allows us to investigate the transition to new ships as the Navy decommissions current ships. Currently, the Navy plans to procure 12 T-AKEs—double-product ships that can carry both ordnance and dry stores. These ships will replace the T-AEs and T-AFSs. There is concern, however, that as the AOE-1s are decommissioned, using a T-AKE with a T-AO as a CVBG station ship will not meet battle group needs. As a result, the Navy is now contemplating building a new class of multi-product CLF ship known as a T-AOE(X) that would replace the AOE-1s as CVBG station ships. Therefore, in this document we have used our methodology to investigate CLF force-level requirements with and without the T-AOE(X).

Timeline methodology and assumptions

When CNA conducted the analysis of alternatives (AOA) for the Aux- iliary Dry Cargo Carrier, the TADC(X) (now referred to as the T-AKE (Auxiliary Cargo and Ammunition Ship)), we found that we needed a means of depicting the transition of the CLF from the present to the future well beyond when that new class entered the fleet [1]. Associ- ated with the CLF transition plan was the need to represent the employment of CLF ships to fulfill certain peacetime presence requirements in each theater where the U.S. Navy customarily operates, in order to determine how many CLF ships were required in FOS. As a result, we developed a spreadsheet methodology that enabled us to depict the notional employment of each ship through the various maintenance and operating evolutions it would normally experience in peacetime. We could then calculate the numbers and types of CLF ships needed to meet the prescribed peacetime presence in each theater. This methodology became known as the “timeline methodology” because the notional ship schedules are depicted as timelines for all CLF ships in the Atlantic Fleet (LANTFLT) and Pacific Fleet (PACFLT).

The timeline methodology was also used to develop a series of CLF transition plans for a 1999 OPNAV Working Group that was con- vened by N76 to work in conjunction with the LANTFLT and PACFLT headquarters staffs to determine peacetime CLF requirements [2]. It was used subsequently in support of the 2000 CIN- CLANTFLT “Fleet Analysis of the CLF” study and mid-2001 deliberations by fleet representatives on the number of TAFSs that are required in peacetime [3, 4].

Timeline description

We created the timelines in Microsoft Excel, with separate timelines for PACFLT and LANTFLT CLF ships. They show notional monthly

9 scheduling of every CLF ship, as well as CVBG deployments, from FY 2003 through FY 2020. For each month, we assigned a color code to each ship representing the theater in which the ship is located. When a ship is undergoing maintenance or training, or is in ROS, we assigned no color to it for that month. Ships both in ROS and Cat B were labeled as “ROS” in the timelines.

The timelines schedule all LANTFLT and PACFLT CLF ships throughout the course of each year, built on CVBG deployment schedules. We used the most recent CVBG schedules for the first 5 years, obtained from the GNFPP conference, and then repeated the schedule into later years [5]. Each CVBG includes as its station ship a (T)-AOE, or a T-AO paired with a T-AE or T-AKE.

We wrote a program in Visual Basic that calculates the amount of presence for each month for each type of ship. The program sums the contribution of each ship for each theater. We then averaged the amount of presence for each ship type in each theater for every year. The results show whether the ships are meeting presence requirements based on a specific set of maintenance, transit, and deployment assumptions.

Peacetime presence requirements

We needed to determine presence requirements to apply to the timelines. The following sections describe how we chose the requirements that we used.

Initial use of presence requirements in the timeline methodology

In June 1997, to assist CNA in its AOA of the TADC(X), CINCLANT- FLT and CINCPACFLT provided us with the presence requirements that they endeavored to achieve with CLF ships in order to provide logistics support of their battle force ships (see table 2) [6]. The requirements included not only those for the overseas theaters where the Navy operates—the Mediterranean (Med), the Central Com- mand area of responsibility (CentCom), and the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean (WestPac)—but also those for the theaters contiguous to the United States—the Western Atlantic including the Caribbean

10 (WestLant) and the Eastern and Middle Pacific (EastPac). CNA subsequently used these CLF presence requirements both in an expanded AOA of the entire CLF in 1998 as the basis for determining the force structure required to meet them, and to compute peacetime force-level requirements for an OPNAV CLF Working Group in 1999 [1].

Table 2. CLF presence requirements on 17 June 1997

LANTFLT PACFLT WestLant Med CentCom WestPac EastPac AOEa 0.75 1.00 0.75 0.33 0.75 T-AO b 2.33 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 T-AE b 0.75 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.75 T-AFS 0.00 1.00 1.00c 1.50 0.00

a. The AOE requirement is fulfilled by both AOEs and substitute station ships (a T-AO plus a T-AE). b. When acting as a substitute station ship, the ships’ presence is not counted towards the T-AO or T-AE presence. c. It was informally understood that this requirement would be jointly filled by PACFLT and LANTFLT T-AFSs.

Current presence requirements

In July 2001 CINCLANTFLT hosted a CLF working group meeting to discuss CLF presence and force structure requirements. The group assessed the presence requirements based on previous requirements and historical data. Table 3 shows the values they determined [7].

Table 3. CLF presence requirements in August 2001

LANTFLT PACFLT WestLant Med CentCom CentCom WestPac EastPac (T)-AOEa 0.75 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.33 0.75 T-AO b 2.33 2.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 T-AE b 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.00 T-AFS 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.85 0.00

a. The (T)-AOE requirement is fulfilled by both (T)-AOEs and substitute station ships (a T-AO plus a T-AE)

11 b. When acting as a substitute station ship, the ships’ presence is not counted towards the T-AO or T-AE presence.

The working group recognized that CentCom had become a theater in which battle force ships and CLF shuttle ships of both fleets operated each year, and it subdivided the CentCom column into a column for each fleet. In view of the fact that a CVBG of each fleet was operating there about half of each year, with an AOE as a station ship, each fleet would provide an AOE (or T-AOE when the AOE 6 class ships transition to the MSC) 0.50 annually. Similarly, each fleet agreed to provide a T-AFS to CentCom for half of the year.

CLF presence requirements during Operation Enduring Freedom

Following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, presence requirements for CVBG deployments essentially changed in a number of areas. For example, from October 2001 to July 2002, the LANTFLT CVBG was deployed mostly to CentCom rather than to the Med [8]. Similarly, from October to December 2001 the Forward Deployed Naval Force (FDNF) carrier was deployed to CentCom out of its normal rotation [9]. With the changed CVBG (and amphibious ready group (ARG)) presence in overseas theaters, we perceived a number of de facto changes in presence requirements for CLF ships, with increases in CentCom and reductions in the Med and in WestPac. Specifically, two AOEs, two T-AOs, and two T-AFSs were in CentCom, and eventually one T-AE went there as well [10]. Concomitantly, the AOE presence in the Med dropped to only that which resulted from AOEs transiting with CVBGs through the theater (< 0.33).

Post-OEF CLF presence requirements

By the end of April 2002, the number of CVBGs and ARGs in Cent- Com had dropped to one each, or half the number that had been present for most of the past 8 months. Also during April, the number of CLF ships dropped from seven to three, with an AOE, a T-AO, and a T-AFS remaining to support the CVBG and the ARG [11]. We therefore did not increase any CLF presence requirements due to OEF.

12 Based on the GNFPP CVBG schedules, in the future LANTFLT and PACFLT will both contribute about half of the CVBG presence requirement in CentCom [5]. This will allow the LANTFLT CVBGs to be present more of each year in the Med, their traditional forward operating theater. However, based on the schedules, the CVBGs will still not be present in the Med every day of the year. We therefore reduced the Med (T)-AOE requirement to 0.75, recognizing that the (T)-AOE requirement will vary with the CVBG presence there.

In some cases the July 2001 working group established increased presence requirements on the basis of historical presence data from 1999 and 2000 (table 3). But for two of these cases, we did not observe from their data that there was a need for more operating days in the theater. Thus, we decreased the presence requirements to their original value—the WestPac T-AFS from 1.85 to 1.50 and the EastPac T-AE from 1.00 to 0.75 [12]. We kept the WestPac T-AE at its increased value.

In the past, the AOE presence requirement in WestPac was 0.33, which reflected the presence derived from AOEs accompanying the CVBGs that transited from EastPac to CentCom. However, that value discounts the presence contributed by the FDNF CVBG station ship. Consequently, we assumed that a substitute station ship was required at all times for the FDNF CVBG, and thus increased the WestPac (T)-AOE requirement to 1.33.

In 2007 the T-AKEs will become operational in the fleet. In view that they will replace the T-AEs and T-AFSs, we assumed that the presence requirement for the T-AKE in each region would be the sum of the requirements for the two types of ships it is replacing.

Therefore, we assume that the CLF presence requirements for the foreseeable future will resemble the numbers shown in table 4. The values in blue show the changes we made from table 3.

Timeline assumptions

We made every effort to construct employment and deployment timelines for CLF ships (see the appendix) that are reasonable with

13 Table 4. CLF future presence requirements

LANTFLT PACFLT WestLant Med CentCom CentCom WestPac EastPac (T)-AOE 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 1.33 0.75 T-AO 2.33 2.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 T-AE 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 0.75 T-AFS 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.50 0.00 T-AKE 0.75 1.00 0.50 0.50 2.80 0.75

respect to the events depicted in the course of the ships’ operational cycle. To do so, we obtained planning factors from the Navy and made assumptions that are associated with the following:

• The periodicity and duration of major maintenance events • The sequence and duration of workup events leading to forward deployments and the deployments themselves

• The duration of transits between theaters, including the number of days that do not contribute to peacetime presence

• The length of ship transition periods from Navy to MSC operation, and major ship conversion availabilities

• The timing and duration of other key events in CLF transition from legacy to new CLF ships.

The following sections explain the assumptions that we used for the CLF timelines, and our rationale for doing so.

Maintenance

The following sections describe the maintenance assumptions for CLF ships in the MSC and in the Navy.

MSC ship maintenance CLF ships in the MSC follow maintenance cycles that include peri- odic preventive maintenance events in ship repair facilities. Figure 1 shows a notional maintenance schedule for a 5-year period for an MSC ship. Major maintenance events occur every 15 months, alternating between mid-term availabilities (MTAs) that last 30 days

14 (green) and regular overhauls (ROHs) that last 60 days (red). In quarters where major maintenances are not scheduled, the ship undergoes a 14-day voyage repair (VR), shown in blue. Over 5 years, the number of maintenance days varies each year, from 56 to 102 days. The average number of maintenance days per year is 81.

Figure 1. Notional maintenance schedule for an MSC ship

Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5

An MSC ship is operationally available to the fleet for 270 days out of 365 days each year, with the balance of the year devoted to maintenance and availability for inspections, training, and other MSC events. MSC does not need all of those 95 days for maintenance in years when ROHs do not take place, but the ships still are not available for Navy use during that time. However, the timing of these extra MSC days is flexible, and they can be worked around naval needs. We have decided that due to this flexibility in years of less maintenance, ships can be counted as present for more than 270 days each year.

Although VRs must be completed each quarter, there is flexibility in when they can be scheduled within the quarter. Also, in most cases a ship can be brought out of a VR within 72 hours. Consequently, we counted CLF ships as contributing to theater presence when they are in a VR. This strategy is consistent with the way the Navy counts presence of combatant ships in quarterly selective readiness availabilities (SRAs) in overseas theaters [13].

The final concern with maintenance scheduling is flexibility and unpredictability. Many CLF ships are more than 20 years old. As ships age, they require more, and sometimes unexpected, maintenance to keep them operational. To account for this unpredictability, we added 30 days of maintenance to the MTAs and ROHs, bringing them to 60-day and 90-day availabilities, respectively. This strategy of addressing unexpected maintenance was confirmed by MSC [4, 14].

15 In considering all of the above, in our timelines we scheduled MSC ships for major maintenance availabilities every 15 months or less, alternating between 2- and 3-month periods. These periods do not count as ship presence in a theater. We did not schedule VRs because they count towards presence.

Navy ship maintenance Most CLF ships are already assigned to the MSC. However, there are still six Navy AOEs (that number will reach zero in 2008). They are subject to more stringent Navy operating and personnel tempo (OpTempo and PersTempo) restrictions, and maintenance and training requirements than MSC ships. In our timelines for Navy- operated AOEs, after each deployment we scheduled a month of post-deployment standdown, then a 4-month maintenance availability (SRA or equivalent), and then 6 months of basic and intermediate- level training before they join other ships of the CVBG in the Inter- Deployment Training Cycle (IDTC). These months do not contribute to presence because the AOEs are not providing logistics support during these periods of maintenance and training.

AOE workup for deployment

When a (T)-AOE works up in preparation for a forward deployment, it participates with other ships of the CVBG in the IDTC. The IDTC includes two major pre-deployment training events, the Compatibility Training Underway Exercise (COMPTUEX) and the Joint Task Force Exercise (JTFEX). The months in which these exercises are conducted count towards the (T)-AOE presence requirements in the home theater because the (T)-AOEs are supporting the CVBG combatants. One month prior to deployment, all CVBG ships are inport for Preparation for Overseas Movement (POM), and this month does not count towards presence. T-AOs, T-AEs, and T-AKEs also follow these guidelines when they are employed as substitute CVBG station ships.

Transit between theaters

When a ship is in FOS, it is inevitably in one of the five theaters. How- ever, if a CLF ship is at the boundary of a theater during its inter-the-

16 ater transit, it is unlikely to be near enough to any combatants to resupply them. Therefore, based on input from the July 2001 CLF working group, we chose to treat transit time as contributing to presence only if the CLF ship transited in company with combatant ships.

CVBG station ships (T)-AOEs and substitute CVBG station ships transit as a part of a CVBG. Therefore, we did not take any portion of the month during transit away from their presence calculation. To best represent the transit of the CVBG deployment to the Med, 30 percent of both the first and last months of the deployment count towards WestLant presence (with the remainder applied to the Med presence). For CVBGs deploying to WestPac, 25 percent counts towards EastPac presence, with the balance of the month applied to WestPac.

Shuttle ships COMSC supplied us with transit times between major ports in several overseas theaters [15]. We list these times in table 5. Based on these times, table 5 shows the portions of the transit month that we have counted and not counted towards presence in our timelines.

Table 5. Shuttle ship transit times between theaters and the distribution of the month during transit

Fraction Fraction Fraction Transit between Transit time towards not towards theater 1 and theater 2 (days) theater 1 counted theater 2 WestLant ⇔ Med 10.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 Med ⇔ CentCom 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 WestPac ⇔ CentCom 18.8-19.7 0.1 0.7 0.2 EastPac ⇔ WestPac 14-24.2 0.1 0.7 0.2

There is one exception to the shuttle ship transit time omissions. PACFLT stated that it sends T-AFSs to CentCom only with a CVBG [16]. Because a PACFLT T-AFS transits with the CVBG, and therefore is in company with it during much of the transit, we counted the full T-AFS transit as contributing to presence in one or more theaters. When the T-AKEs replace the T-AFSs, the same criterion applies.

17 Deployment lengths

Currently, CLF ship deployments are 6 months long. Navy ships limit deployment durations to 6 months portal-to-portal in order to avoid exceeding OpTempo and PersTempo requirements. MSC ships, however, do not have these Navy tempo restrictions, so their deployments can be extended. MSC has stated that 9-month deployments are fea- sible if mariner recruiting and retention permits [15]. The advantage of extending deployments is that it would reduce these ships’ time in transit each year, thereby increasing their contribution to presence within theaters. We investigated a few scenarios in timelines where we used either 6- or 9-month deployments for the shuttle ships. Using 9-month deployments, we found there was an increase in presence in each theater for each type of ship, but usually by less than 0.1. Even though in most cases the presence did not change greatly, using 9-month deployments simplified construction of our timelines. We therefore chose to schedule all MSC CLF shuttle ship deployments for up to 9 months.

Deployments to CentCom are different from those to the Med or to WestPac because anti-terrorism and force protection concerns pro- hibit performing quarterly VRs. Consequently, T-AEs, T-AFSs, and T-AKEs must leave CentCom to get a 14-day VR. Therefore, we did not deploy these ships to CentCom for longer than 4 months at a time.

AOE conversions

The four AOE-6 class ships are being transferred to the MSC. First, they undergo a hot transfer—a 6-month maintenance availability and personnel transfer period during which the ship is converted for MSC operation. One AOE has already completed the hot transfer, the second began in June 2002, and the two in PACFLT will transition in the next couple of years. About 8 years later, they will undergo a 12-month major maintenance availability to complete MSC CIVMOD alterations. The CIVMOD is then followed by a 3-month period for inspections, trials, and workup prior to returning to the fleet.

18 CLF transition

We used the most recent acquisition plans for the dates of delivery to the Navy and to the Fleet of both the T-AKEs and T-AOE(X)s [17, 18]. As we brought a new ship into the timelines on the date set for fleet delivery in the acquisition plans, we retired a legacy ship that same month, starting with the AOE-1 class ships. N42 submitted pro- posed changes to the Navy’s Ship and Aircraft Data Tables (SASDT) that show new planned commissioning and retirement dates of the CLF ships [19]. In the SASDT submission, the order of ships being retired was based on the age and wear of the ship—the poorer the material condition of the ship, the sooner it was retired. We followed the N42 order of ship type retirements in each fleet, but did not always retire them in the same year. For example, in the SASDT submission, a T-AFS is scheduled to be decommissioned in FY 2009 when the seventh T-AKE enters the fleet. A T-AE and a T-AFS are scheduled to be decommissioned in FY 2010 when the eighth T-AKE enters the fleet. Instead, we decommissioned a T-AFS and T-AE when the seventh T-AKE entered the fleet in FY 2009, and decommissioned a T- AFS in FY 2009 when the eighth T-AKE entered the fleet.

FDNF carrier battle group

There is an FDNF CVBG homeported in WestPac, which deploys to CentCom every few years. This CVBG needs a station ship with it at all times when it is conducting battle group operations. Therefore, we assigned a T-AO and T-AE/T-AKE to act as the permanent substitute station ship for the FDNF CVBG. These CLF ships are also homeported in WestPac, but they do not count towards the theater presence for CLF shuttle ships. Instead they count towards the (T)-AOE presence in the theater where the FDNF CVBG is located.

Other considerations

We have based our analysis of the CLF structure on many assumptions. Our results might have been different if our assumptions had changed. In addition, the timeline method of analysis has limitations. We discuss some of these issues in this section.

Presence requirements

The CLF force levels that we developed are primarily predicated on seeking to achieve the presence requirements provided to CNA by the fleet (table 3). We do not know whether these presence requirements are sufficient or excessive to the logistics support requirements of forward-deployed naval forces, and comparable support requirements in theater contiguous to the United States. If we were given different presence requirements, our results would change.

We chose to calculate the theater presence requirement of the T-AKE by summing the requirement for the T-AE and T-AFS in each theater, because these are the ships that the T-AKE is replacing. However, the T-AKE should have greater efficiency in providing logistics support to combatant naval forces because it is able to provide either ordnance or dry stores, or both. So the presence requirements for this type ship might not need to equal the sum of T-AE and T-AFS presence requirements. Also, the T-AKE will have a small cargo fuel capacity that will enable it to refuel small combatants or otherwise augment the theater oiler capabilities. The additional flexibility of a dual-product T-AKE with a cargo fuel capacity needs to be explored more thor- oughly.

The T-AO and T-AE/T-AKE devoted to the FDNF CVBG as a substitute station ship may be able to contribute to the shuttle ship requirements of the theaters that they are in. Therefore, our assumption that these ships do not count towards the shuttle ship presence requirement is conservative.

21 Presently, (T)-AOEs are scheduled concurrently with CVBGs so that they will be present for battle group events in preparation for and during forward deployments. The amount of peacetime presence that (T)-AOEs provide in each theater therefore derives from the presence that the associated CVBGs provide in each theater, which may or may not equal their prescribed annual presence requirement. As an example, we were given a 1.33 presence requirement in West- Pac, which is fulfilled by the FDNF CVBG (hence, its substitute station ship) plus CVBGs (and their station ships) from EastPac. When we applied the PACFLT CVBG deployment patterns, we calculated that during several years the actual CVBG (hence, (T)-AOE) presence in WestPac did not achieve the 1.33 requirement. This example shows that whether or not (T)-AOEs achieve the required presence in an overseas theater is entirely dependent on the way the CVBG deployments are scheduled.

Timeline limitations

Transition plan results are highly dependent on the CVBG schedules that they use. If CVBG deployments became more frequent, (T)-AOE deployments would become more frequent, possibly increasing the need for substitute station ships. This in turn could lead to a need for more FOS T-AOs, T-AEs, or T-AKEs. The same trends would apply if CVBG deployments became less frequent.

The timelines show a notional employment and deployment schedule for every ship in the CLF. We chose the schedules in a subjective manner, so that the presence requirements and maintenance schedule would be met, and the scheduling would look as easy to meet as possible. Because we chose the schedules manually, other schedules could also result in meeting the requirements. We do not know whether these other schedules would result in greater efficiency or greater acceptance by the Navy.

The timeline results are based entirely on theater presence requirements. They do not themselves show the effects of ship and theater characteristics on combatant needs. For example, the WestPac theater is very large, and combatant ships—the CLF’s customers—may be conducting operations nearly simultaneously in several different

22 areas within that theater. A higher-speed ship may be able to meet more customer replenishment needs than a slower ship. In fact, the principal argument for construction of the T-AOE(X) is to replace the AOE-1 class ships in order to provide high-speed, multi-product ships as station ships. The transition plans and timeline methodology we have used in this analysis are not able to validate or contradict this argument.

We did not investigate the result of changing CLF presence, and therefore force structure, requirements in response to a contingency. We know from Operations Desert Storm and Enduring Freedom that any significant growth in the number of combatant ships in a theater attendant to a contingency will require a larger number of CLF ships for logistics support.

The timeline methodology calculates how many ships are needed in FOS to maintain certain prescribed levels of force presence in various theaters around the world. Another method that has been used to determine force levels is to analyze the logistics demand of the combatant forces afloat, both in the combat theater and in contiguous theaters through which combatant forces must transit. This method, instead of using presence requirements, directly assesses supply needs and the ships required to deliver them, and can investigate both peacetime and wartime requirements. The results obtained from this other force-level assessment process may give additional insight into CLF responsibilities and capabilities.

Force structure requirements and capabilities

We prepared timelines to support two CLF transition plans (see appendix). The first, Alternative I, contains a CLF that is consistent with the Navy’s Program of Record for the CLF, in that it includes one CLF acquisition program—12 ships of the T-AKE class. Alternative II contains a CLF that reflects two CLF acquisition programs in the next decade: nine ships of the T-AKE class and four ships of a new three- product ship called the T-AOE(X). The T-AOE(X) would replace the four ships of the AOE-1 class as CVBG station ships.

Our transition plans and supporting timelines extend from 2003 through 2020, and are divided into three periods:

• From 2003 through 2006, the near-term future when all legacy ships are still operational and AOE-6 class ships undergo hot transfers to the MSC

• From 2007 through 2015, the mid-term future during which the CLF transitions from legacy-type classes to the new classes, including the MSC CIVMOD alterations that the T-AOE-6s will require

• From 2016 through 2020, the far-term future when all T-AFSs, T-AEs, and AOE-1s have been retired and all T-AKEs and T-AOE(X)s have become operational in the fleet.

Succeeding sections will summarize each of the alternatives, noting the mix and number of CLF ships that are required to fulfill the prescribed presence in all five operating theaters. They will also note where our timelines did not completely produce the required presence, and the reasons therefore. In the near-term period, the two transition plans and timelines are identical because the CLF consists of the same mix of ship types. Thus, we will summarize the near term in the Alternative I section only.

25 CLF Alternative I

The transition plan for Alternative I is shown in table 6. Force levels are as of the first day of each Fiscal Year.

Table 6. The numbers and status of each ship type for the timeline transitioning to 12 T-AKEs (Alternative I)

Near-term years Mid-term years Far-term years Ship type 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 AOE-1 FOS 444431000000000000 AOE-6 FOS 210000000000000000 Under Conversion111000001111100000 T-AOE FOS 123444443333344444 T-AOE ROS 000000000000000000 T-AO FOS 131515151515151515161615151515151515 T-AO ROS 3 a 11111111001111111 T-AE FOS 466644432222000000 T-AE ROS 311122220000000000 T-AFS FOS 666665400000000000 T-AFS ROS 000001122000000000 T-AKE Delivered000122232000000000 T-AKE FOS 000013589111111111111111111 T-AKE ROS 000000001111111111 Total FOS 303434353332323029323231293030303030 Total Conversion111000001111100000 Total ROS 622234454112222222 Total 373737373636363534343434323232323232 a. Two of the T-AOs are in CAT B, not ROS.

Near-term period (2003-2006)

The timelines start with the CLF ships in their current operating status (FOS or ROS). In this and later periods, we activate ships that are in ROS when we cannot reach the presence requirements in our timelines with the current CLF, and we place FOS ships in ROS when the presence resulting from the CLF is considerably greater than the requirement.

26 (T)-AOEs Throughout this period there are eight AOE class ships, with the AOE-6s undergoing hot transfer to the MSC so that by FY 2006 there are four AOE-1s and four T-AOE-6s in the force. Planned CVBG deployments are such that a (T)-AOE is present in the Med only for 60 percent of the year. Therefore, our timelines do not maintain the required 0.75 presence in that theater. The EastPac (T)-AOE requirement is also not met in 2003, due to the obligatory maintenance and training that PACFLT (T)-AOEs must undergo during that year. Sim- ilarly, we do not achieve the 1.33 WestPac (T)-AOE presence requirement in 2006, during which the FDNF CVBG is deployed out-of-area to CentCom.

In home theaters (EastPac and WestLant), there is excess presence of (T)-AOEs during most of these years. Since the (T)-AOE is both an ammunition ship and an oiler, we explored the feasibility of employ- ing excess (T)-AOE presence in EastPac and WestLant to fulfill any shortfall in T-AO or T-AE presence in those areas, as an alternative to activating ROS T-AOs and T-AEs (which we discuss in the following sections). We found that there is not sufficient excess (T)-AOE presence in EastPac to apply to any shortfalls in the Pacific theater. We determined that the excess (T)-AOE presence in WestLant could fulfill the shortfall in either T-AO or T-AE presence there, if we did not activate a ROS T-AE or ROS T-AO for that purpose. While our methodology is not able to test it, it is also possible that the multi-purpose (T)-AOEs in WestLant could simultaneously fulfill the shortfall in both T-AO and T-AE presence in that theater during those years.

T-AOs In FY 2003 we activated two T-AOs from ROS, one in each fleet, total- ling 15 FOS T-AOs. Activating a T-AO in LANTFLT enables meeting combatant commander presence requirements in 2003 and 2006, but it results in a large excess of T-AO presence in WestLant in 2004 and 2005. However, in 2003 and 2006 the WestLant (T)-AOE presence greatly exceeds its requirement, by more than 1.00. The excess (T)-AOE presence could be used as a shuttle oiler to fulfill T-AO requirements instead of the T-AO being activated from ROS.

27 In PACFLT, an additional T-AO is needed because of the FDNF CVBG substitute station ship requirement as well as shuttle oiler requirements. We used this additional oiler alternatively in WestPac and EastPac. Even with that activation, T-AOs do not meet their East- Pac requirement in 2004 because one PACFLT T-AO must act as a substitute station ship.

T-AEs We activated two T-AEs in 2003, one in each fleet, leading to a total of six FOS ammunition ships. In LANTFLT, a T-AE must be activated because the one T-AE in that fleet is required as a substitute station ship in 2003 and 2006. If an additional T-AE had not been activated, the T-AE presence requirements in 2004 and 2005 would still be reached, but the presence in 2003 and 2006 would be practically zero. Instead of using it towards T-AO presence, the excess (T)-AOE presence in these years could be used to offset any T-AE presence shortfalls, allowing the T-AE to remain in ROS. The two FOS LANTFLT T-AEs are brought down to ROS after 2006.

In PACFLT, the activated T-AE is needed to fill in for the T-AE employed continuously as the FDNF CVBG station ship. In 2004, the sole EastPac-based T-AE must serve as a substitute CVBG station ship. Because of this, the EastPac presence requirement is not attained that year. There is excess (T)-AOE presence during this year, however, and a (T)-AOE could be used as a shuttle T-AE so that the requirement is met. But even with the (T)-AOE used as a shuttle ship, the ROS T-AE needs to be activated.

T-AFSs The six T-AFSs met all presence requirements. We followed fleet T-AFS deployment patterns: PACFLT sends a T-AFS with its CVBGs when they deploy to CentCom, and LANTFLT T-AFSs deploy for 4 months in CentCom.

Mid-term period (2007-2015)

As explained earlier, this is the transition period for the CLF when the AOE-1s, the T-AFSs and the T-AEs are retired as the T-AKEs are delivered to the Navy. The first T-AKE will be operational in July 2006.

28 In the timelines, for each T-AKE brought into the fleet, at least one ship was retired in the same month. We followed the order of the ship types retiring from each fleet that is specified in N42’s SASDT submission [19].

T-AOEs The AOE-1s retire between 2006 to 2007, leaving a total of four T-AOE-6s in FOS. The T-AOE-6s undergo their CIVMOD conversions from 2011 to 2015, one at a time, so that there are only three FOS T-AOEs in any of those years. Because of these events, more substitute station ships are required to support CVBG deployments during this transition period.

The T-AOEs only reach their Med requirement in 2013, and the West- Pac requirement is occasionally not met. Periodically, one fleet or the other does not meet the prescribed CentCom T-AOE presence, but the sum of the two fleets’ presence each year meets or exceeds the required presence of 1.00 in that theater. These presence values result directly from the CVBG schedules.

T-AOs When we retire the AOE-1s, a T-AO along with a T-AE or T-AKE must act as a substitute station ship on a regular basis—at least every third CVBG deployment. This need increases when the T-AOE-6s undergo their CIVMOD conversions to MSC—two or three T-AOs a year must act as station ships.

From 2007 to 2011, the 15 FOS T-AOs continue to meet most presence requirements. After the CIVMOD conversions are complete in LANTFLT, one T-AO can be placed in ROS in 2013, leaving six LANTFLT FOS T-AOs. Then, there are a couple of years in which the WestLant requirement is not met, but the available presence is close to the 2.33 requirement. In PACFLT, to compensate for the non- availability of T-AOE-6s in 2013 and 2014 during their CIVMOD conversions, we activated the LANTFLT ROS T-AO in 2011 and transferred it to PACFLT. Even with nine T-AOs in PACFLT, EastPac presence requirements are not met in 2013 or 2014.

29 T-AFSs, T-AEs, and T-AKEs The four AOE-1s are retired as the first four T-AKEs enter the fleet. Thereafter, T-AEs and T-AFSs retire as the remaining T-AKEs deliver to the fleet. All presence requirements are met in these years except in CentCom in 2015, when the PACFLT T-AKE presence is con- strained by the duration of CVBG deployments to that theater per the PACFLT scheduling policy.

As LANTFLT T-AKEs join the fleet, they can fulfill the ammunition ship presence requirements as well as meet substitute station ship presence requirements. Therefore, we were able to retire one LANT- FLT T-AE in 2006 and place the other two in ROS. The three T-AFSs, however, must remain in FOS until they are retired, except for the final year (2010) of the last T-AFS. After 2009, only five FOS T-AKEs are needed in LANTFLT to meet presence requirements, so we placed one in ROS in 2010. Once the T-AOE CIVMOD conversions are complete in 2012, LANTFLT requires only four T-AKEs in FOS; thus, we put another T-AKE in ROS in 2013.

In PACFLT, as the T-AKEs enter the fleet we are able to place one T-AFS and one T-AE in ROS while still meeting presence requirements. The rest of the T-AEs must remain in FOS until retired, with two of them staying active through 2014. All six PACFLT T-AKEs are needed in FOS. Also, to meet presence requirements in 2012 we activate a LANTFLT ROS T-AKE and transfer it to PACFLT. Five of these seven T-AKEs are home-ported in WestPac.

Far-term period (2016-2020)

After the Alternative I transition is complete, most presence requirements are met with a CLF composed of the following:

• In LANTFLT, two T-AOEs, six T-AOs, and four T-AKEs in FOS, and one T-AO and one T-AKE in ROS

• In PACFLT, two T-AOEs, nine T-AOs, and seven T-AKEs in FOS.

The main presence deficiency is with the WestLant T-AOs, which do not meet their 2.33 requirement about half of the time, and are short

30 by as much as 0.28 one year. We could have activated the ROS T-AO to eliminate the presence shortfall, but we chose not to do so because that would have generated a large amount of excess presence in West- Lant. On the other hand, the T-AO presence in EastPac always exceeds the 2.00 requirement significantly. We chose not to put a T-AO in ROS in this case because it would have created presence values lower than the requirement by about 0.50 for some years.

It is important to emphasize that the CVBG schedules control much of the CLF presence capabilities. If the LANTFLT CVBG schedule became more rigorous, e.g., requiring a 0.75 presence in the Med and a comparable T-AOE Med presence, the LANTFLT ROS T-AO and T-AKE could be activated to provide a greater substitute station ship capability. If PACFLT CVBG deployments were scheduled more frequently, however, there would be no CLF ships in ROS to activate. Only the excess T-AO and T-AKE presence would be available to assist in meeting any additional station ship requirements.

CLF Alternative II

Table 7 shows the transition plan for Alternative II, showing force levels as of the first day of each Fiscal Year.

31 Table 7. The numbers and status of each ship type for the timeline transitioning to 9 T-AKEs and 4 T-AOE(X)s (Alternative II)

Near-term years Mid-term years Far-term years Ship type 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 AOE-1 FOS 444431000000000000 AOE-6 FOS 210000000000000000 Under Conversion111000001111100000 T-AOE(X) Deliv- 000000001021000000 ered T-AOE FOS 123444443456676666 T-AOE ROS 000000000001112222 T-AO FOS 131515151515151515161614141414141414 T-AO ROS 3 a 11111111002222222 T-AE FOS 466644433330000000 T-AE ROS 311122221000000000 T-AFS FOS 666665411110000000 T-AFS ROS 000001111100000000 T-AKE Delivered000122211000000000 T-AKE FOS 000013589999999999 T-AKE ROS 000000000000000000 Total FOS 303434353332323131333429293029292929 Total Conversion111000001111100000 Total ROS 622234443103334444 Total 373737373636363535353533333333333333 a. Two of the T-AOs are in CAT B, not ROS.

Near-term period

As previously explained, Alternative II timelines are identical to those of Alternative I because CLF ship types during the near-term period are the same in both cases.

Mid-term period (2007-2015)

In Alternative II, nine T-AKEs are acquired, followed by four T-AOE(X)s. As each of these ships enters the fleet, we retire one or two of the AOE-1s, T-AFSs, and T-AEs. As mentioned previously, we used the most recent SASDT submission to determine the order in which ship types will retire from each fleet [19].

32 T-AOEs The AOE-1 class ships retire from 2006 through 2007, the AOE-6 class ships undergo CIVMOD conversions from 2011 to 2015, and the four T-AOE(X)s enter the fleet between the years of 2011 and 2014. We found that LANTFLT requires only three T-AOE type ships in order to meet all (T)-AOE presence requirements for which LANT- FLT is responsible; hence, we placed the second T-AOE(X) in ROS almost immediately. In PACFLT we retained the second T-AOE(X) in FOS a year longer to compensate for the T-AOE-6 CIVMOD conversions still taking place in that fleet. We then put it in ROS, leaving two T-AOE-6s and one T-AOE(X).

Between 2007 and 2015, the T-AOEs reach their Med requirement only in 2013; the WestPac requirement is also occasionally not met during that period. The combined T-AOE presence from both fleets in CentCom meets the requirement there.

With the addition of the T-AOE(X)s, Alternative II becomes different from Alternative I in two ways:

• Fewer substitute station ships are necessary. • There is a greater WestLant and EastPac T-AOE presence.

These changes do not alter the presence deficiencies in the Med and WestPac.

T-AOs The T-AOs follow the same schedule as in Alternative I until 2014, with one LANTFLT ROS T-AO activated in 2011 and then transferred to PACFLT. The other 15 T-AOs are all in FOS until 2014. Because the entering T-AOE(X)s alleviate some of the need for T-AOs as substitute station ships, in 2014 we place one T-AO from each fleet in ROS, leaving 14 in FOS (as compared to 15 retained in FOS in Alter- native I). The only year that the T-AO does not meet a presence requirement is in 2008 in EastPac, when a T-AO must deploy as a substitute station ship and all other EastPac T-AOs are undergoing maintenance.

33 T-AKEs, T-AFSs, and T-AEs The delivery of the first nine T-AKEs in Alternative II is identical to that event in Alternative I, and the transitioning and retirement of T-AEs and T-AFSs is almost the same in both Alternatives. All of the presence requirements are met during the transition period until 2013. The WestLant requirement is not met from 2013 to 2015 and the EastPac requirement is not met in 2015.

In PACFLT, as the T-AKEs enter we place two T-AFSs and one T-AE in ROS. The rest must remain in FOS until retired. The final T-AEs retire in 2013 (compared to 2014 in Alternative I). Once the T-AOE-6 CIVMOD conversions are complete in LANTFLT, one of its four T-AKEs is transferred to PACFLT. This T-AKE enters PACFLT in 2012, which allows the presence requirements to continue to be met.

Far-term period (2016-2020)

As with Alternative I, once the transition is complete almost all presence requirements are met with the following CLF force levels:

• In LANTFLT, three T-AOEs, six T-AOs, and three T-AKEs in FOS; one T-AOE and one T-AO in ROS

• In PACFLT, three T-AOEs, eight T-AOs, and six T-AKEs in FOS; one T-AOE and one T-AO in ROS.

WestLant T-AO presence exceeds requirements by 0.39 or more but not enough to justify putting another LANTFLT T-AO in ROS. The T-AKEs in PACFLT do not meet their EastPac presence requirement in 2016, and in LANTFLT do not quite reach the WestLant requirement in most years. Given the number of CLF ships in EastPac (over 4.5 on average) and in WestLant (almost 5), other types of CLF ships might be able to perform the required functions of T-AKEs when their presence is deficient in those theaters.

Two T-AOE(X)s are in ROS during these years. If in FOS, they could be employed to fulfill shuttle ship presence requirements. With the T-AOE(X)s in FOS, it might be possible to put a T-AO and/or a T-AKE in ROS. However, the fleets generally consider the AOE only for station ship needs, so this practice may not be acceptable.

34 As previously mentioned, the CVBG schedule controls much of the CLF presence capabilities. But unlike in Alternative I, if the CVBG forward deployments increased such that the actual presence equalled the T-AOE requirement in forward theaters, in Alternative II both LANTFLT and PACFLT would have ROS T-AOEs that could be activated to meet these new requirements. Thus, there would be no need for additional substitute station ships.

Summary of results

Figures 2 and 3 show the total number of CLF ships each year for Alternatives I and II. Figure 2 shows the number of CLF ships for 2003 through 2009 when the transition plans are the same for both Alter- natives. Figure 3 contains two columns for each year from 2010 through 2020: the left column shows the numbers of CLF ships required for Alternative I (12 T-AKEs) for each year, and the right column shows those required for Alternative II (9 T-AKEs and 4 T-AOE(X)s).

Figure 2. Number of CLF ships from FY 2003 through 2009

40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 Number of CLF Ships Number of 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Year FOS Conversion ROS

35 Figure 3. Number of CLF ships from FY 2010 to 2020. Alternative I is on the left, and Alternative II is on the right

36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8

Number of CLF Ships Number of 4 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Year FOS Conversion ROS

The red bar in the first three columns in figure 2 represents an AOE-6 undergoing hot transfer to the MSC. The figure shows that, to achieve the required peacetime presence with our timelines, we needed to increase by four the number of CLF ships in FOS in 2003. As explained on page 25, the CLF transition period begins in 2007, with all T-AOE-6s under MSC operation and the first T-AKE entering the fleet, and two fewer ships (33 vice 35) required in FOS. The total number of ships drops by one, from 37 to 36, when the first legacy shuttle ship, the ROS T-AE, is retired that year.

As figure 3 shows, the number of FOS ships fluctuates as the transition period continues and the T-AOE-6 CIVMOD conversions (shown as red bars) occur. Alternative II requires more ships than Alternative I in FOS until 2014 to meet presence requirements. In the final 4 years, when the CLF transition is complete, Alternative I has one fewer ship than Alternative II, but Alternative I requires one more ship in FOS.

Figure 4 shows how well the CLF ships meet their presence requirements from 2011 to 2020. If the region is green, the presence requirements are met—if light green, there is an excess presence of 0.50 or

36 more. If it is yellow, the ships do not meet, but come close to meeting, the requirement (within 0.10). And if it is red, the presence requirements are not met. In the case of the WestPac T-AEs, the white indi- cates that type of ship has been replaced by T-AKEs in that theater..

Figure 4. How well CLF ships meet presence requirement from 2010 to 2020

Alternative I year Alternative II year Theater Ship 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 WestLant T-AOE T-AO T-AKE Med T-AOE T-AO T-AKE CentCom T-AOE T-AO T-AKE WestPac T-AOE T-AO T-AE T-AKE EastPac T-AOE T-AO T-AKE a a. If this T-AKE (T-AE) requirement was 1.00 as stated in table 3, due to PACFLT CV loadout policies, the EastPac presence requirement would not be met in most years.

In the Med, CentCom, and WestPac, all shuttle ships meet their presence requirements with only a few exceptions in both Alternatives. T-AOEs do so in CentCom, and do so in most years in WestPac. They do not meet the requirement in the Med—but as we have noted previously (see page 22), the T-AOE presence in overseas theaters is entirely dependent on CVBG deployment schedules.

Once the transition is complete in 2016, there are three main differ- ences in the success that the alternative CLFs have in meeting presence requirements:

37 • In WestLant, in four out of the five final years, the T-AKEs meet their presence requirement in Alternative I, but do not meet the requirement in Alternative II.

• In WestLant, the T-AOs do not meet the presence requirements in three of the last five years in Alternative I, while they do (with some excess) in Alternative II.

• In EastPac, the T-AKEs meet all presence requirements in Alternative I, but do not meet the requirement in one of the last 5 years in Alternative II.

Another difference between the two alternatives is in the numbers and the types of ships placed in ROS:

• One T-AKE and one T-AO in ROS in Alternative I • Two T-AOE(X)s and two T-AOs in ROS in Alternative II.

In Alternative I there is a LANTFLT T-AO in ROS that could be activated to ease or eliminate the oiler shortfall in WestLant. In Alterna- tive II there are no T-AKEs in ROS that could be activated to FOS to ease the shortfalls in WestLant shown in figure 4. This would imply that Alternative I is preferable.

Alternative III

Another alternative (Alternative III) that may be worth considering would be to acquire 11 T-AKEs and two T-AOE(X)s. This, in effect, would change the two T-AOE(X)s that are in ROS in Alternative II to T-AKEs. This combination of alternatives is advantageous because:

• In Alternative I, the T-AOs must be employed frequently as substitute station ships. With Alternative III, the two T-AOE(X)s would eliminate that employment of the T-AOs.

• In Alternative II, the T-AKE presence requirement is not met. With Alternative III, there are two T-AKEs in ROS that could help meet the unsatisfied portion of the presence requirement.

38 Conclusions

We conclude by comparing the force structure requirements and capabilities of the Alternatives.

In the near term,

• All Alternatives provide the same presence because in those years the alternative CLFs are identical.

• All Alternatives require activating two T-AOs and two T-AEs from ROS to FOS to meet presence requirements. If (T)-AOEs in WestLant are used as shuttle ships when they generate excess (T)-AOE presence, it is not necessary to activate either a T-AO or a T-AE in FY 2003, and it may not be necessary to activate both of those LANTFLT ships.

In the mid term,

• All Alternatives provide nearly identical presence in overseas theaters, and Alternative II is slightly better in fulfilling presence in home waters than Alternative I.

• To meet presence requirements, Alternative II requires slightly (1-2) more ships than Alternative I in FOS until 2014, but Alter- native I retires the final two T-AEs a year later than Alternative II.

In the far term,

• Alternative I contains 32 ships, with two in ROS. Alternatives II and III have 33 ships, with four in ROS. All Alternatives fulfill nearly all presence requirements.

• The difference between Alternatives II and III is that in Alter- native II two T-AOE(X)s, versus two T-AKEs, are in ROS.

39 • Alternative I is the only Alternative that requires the use of shuttle ships as substitute station ships.

• If CVBG deployments increase, all Alternatives contain ships in ROS that can be activated to meet CVBG station ship needs— Alternative I has a substitute station ship in LANTFLT, Alterna- tive III has one in each fleet, and Alternative II has a T-AOE(X) in each fleet.

• If the four T-AOE(X)s in Alternative II are maintained in FOS, one additional shuttle ship from each fleet could probably be placed in ROS.

40 Appendix

Appendix

This appendix shows the timelines we investigated to assess CLF structure requirements for Alternatives I and II. We split LANTFLT and PACFLT in the timelines. We created a CVBG schedule based on the GNFPP schedule specified to 2007 [5], and repeated it through 2020.

Within each fleet, we group ship types separately and denote the theater in which they are present each month by color, as shown in the timeline. Besides having a color code, a ship can also be in maintenance, in training, or in ROS.

For each month, we sum the presence of each ship type in each theater. When forward deployments occur, we count the first and last month of that deployment towards theaters as described on page 17 and in table 5 to account for transit times. We average the ship types’ presence for each year, shown at the end of the timelines. We also note the presence requirement and the average of the yearly averages.

During the transition period when T-AKEs are entering the fleet and T-AEs and T-AFSs are retiring, we summed the theater contributions from the different ship types as appropriate. For example, in EastPac there is a 0.75 T-AE presence requirement and no T-AFS presence requirement. When both T-AEs and T-AKEs are in EastPac, they are summed and must meet a 0.75 presence (the T-AKEs are acting as T-AEs). In one theater, WestPac, there is both a T-AE and T-AFS requirement. We found that the T-AEs were able to meet their requirement in WestPac without any contribution from the T-AKEs, so until the T-AEs were retired, the T-AKE presence was summed with the T-AFS presence, and only needed to meet the T-AFS requirement (1.50). After the T-AEs retired, the T-AKE requirement was increased to 2.80. If the yearly average presence for a ship is colored grey, then we summed it with another ship, shown below the T-AKE averages.

41 Appendix

The following table lists the abbreviations used in the timeline.

Table 8. List of abbreviations

Abbreviation Meaning WL Western Atlantic CC Central Command EP Eastern Pacific WP Western Pacific TTraining S Post-deployment standdown M Maintenance C CVBG COMPTUEX J CVBG JTF exercise P CVBG preparation for overseas movement period D Delivery to MSC W Post-delivery workup DC Decommissioning/Inactivation period ACT Activation period RQRD Presence requirement

First we show the timelines for LANFLT and PACFLT for Alternative I—the case when there are 12 T-AKEs (figures 5 and 6). Then we show the timelines for Alternative II—the case when there are nine T-AKEs and four T-AOE(X)s (figures 7 and 8).

42 Appendix

S DC A MM

MJ J WWWWW A D DC FY 2009 MM C J P MM C J P W CJP W

W W W SONDJ FM W MMM A CJP W

W W MJ J D DC MMM A MMM W FY 2008

ROS W

W W ROS MMMC J P MMMC J P W W

SONDJ FM CJP W A W MM MMM W MM D

CJP MJ J A FY 2007 MM CJP DC MM MMM

SONDJ FM W A W DC = T-AKE READY TO DEPLOY DATE M MMM MM W DC DC CJP M M W W MJ J W W A W W ROS W W MMM W W CJP W W

W D

W MMM W SONDJ FM W A W TTTTTT W

W 000000##0000000111221211111111210012222110001111213201 000000##0000000000000000000000000000000112222100010012 000000##0000000000000000000000000000000000000111100000 D MJ J A TTTTTT MMMM FY 2005 FY 2006 S CJP

= SHUTTLE SHIP MEDITERRANEAN = SHUTTLE SHIP CENTCOM MMMM S CJP SONDJ FM

A ROS JP MMM MM MJ J M

A JP M MM MMM C J P MMM MM C J P

MMM MM SONDJ FM A CJP MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM M

MJ J A MM FY 2003 FY 2004 TTTTTT C CVBG and STATION SHIP CENTCOM

1110011100111000111011000111001110011100011100111001110001110121001110011100011101 ACT = WESTLANT & CARIBBEAN = CVBG and STATION SHIP MEDITERRANEAN ROS ACT = 00001100011000111000111111000110001100011100011000110001110001100110001100011100011 HT

102222132333222132322002220111101122212443233221112011221112110011101221101111021101 332212123324553344543332434343334434233324333323443332343222323333133434434544423221 000011112112221112222222111221122212111001110000000000000000000000000000000000000000 001210020010001001201210001011012200121011011000210220001001002100011000111110100100 212222233332112222223333222223322222222221222333322222212233333323322111111122333333 221001101123221121110011111111101122000111112222111001111222110111001222000011000000 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0011111111001111000011111111111100001 11111110000000111111110111111110000111100000000 ROS ONDJ FM MMM LANTFLT timeline forLANTFLT AlternativeI 3 (incl. AOE equivalents) 1 1 G (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) 0 VB WL MED TAO 1TAO MMM MM MMM MM C J P TAO 2 3TAO TAO 5TAO 4 6TAO TAO J MMM P MM MM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM MM MM MM MM MMM MMM MMM MM MM MM MMM AOE 4 C J P TAKE 7 CVBG 2 CVBG 1 TAO 7 CC TAO 8 WL TAO TAKE 5 TAKE 2 AOE 3 3 AOE TTTTT C TAE 3 WL TAE 1 2 3TAFS TAFS TAFS WL TAFS MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MED TAO TAE 1 J P TAE 2 C AOE 2 TAKE 9 CVBG 4 CVBG 5 CVBG 6 AOE 1 MED TAFS TAKE 1 CC TAO TAKE 11 WL TAKE MED TAKE CC TAKE CC TAFS Figure 5. Figure

43 Appendix S M A 202 221 000

1 1 1 MJ J A MMM C CJP FY 2016

MM MMM CJP MM SONDJ FM

A MMM MJ J A

FY 2015 ROS MM MMM C MM C J P CJP

M MMM MM MM M SONDJ FM M M M M A

CJP MJ J A MM FY 2014 ROS

MMM C J P CJP SONDJ FM A MM MMM C J P

MMM MJ J DC A M MM MMM M MMM MM CJP M M M FY 2013

MMM MMM MM MMM MM DC

SONDJ F A MM MMM C J P MM C J P CJP

MJ J GoTo PACFLT A MM FY 2012 ACT WRKUP

SONDJ FM A MM MMM MM MMM MM MM C J P

MJ J GoTo PACFLT CIVMOD CONVERSION A MMMC J P MMMC J P ROS ACT CJP

MMM MM W WRKUP W MM MMM MM MM MMM W SONDJ FM MM MMM W A MMM MMC J P W

W MM MMM W DC ROS ROS MMM C J P MMM C J P MJ J W A W MMM MM MMM D FY 2010 FY 2011

CIVMOD CONVERSION MMC J P ROS MMM MM MMM C J P 12222210110010001223211121111011012211102220111211112122100122111111001110111111 11111111000001111000111100000111111111110001111011110000111100111111110001111111 10001121003111132210022012202101210101011002002201120211011000111211111112002201

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incl. AOE equivalents) G (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) VB CVBG 4 CVBG 5 CVBG 6 AOE 1 AOE 2 AOE 3 AOE 4 WL MED CC TAO 1 TAO 2 TAO 3 TAO 4 TAO 5 TAO 6 TAO 7 TAO 8 WL TAO MED TAO CC TAO TAE 1 TAE 2 TAE 3 WL TAE TAFS 1 TAFS 2 TAFS 3 WL TAFS MED TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 1 TAKE 2 TAKE 5 TAKE 7 TAKE 9 TAKE 11 WL TAKE MED TAKE CC TAKE CVBG 1 CVBG 2 C Figure 5. LANTFLT timeline for Alternative I Alternative for timeline 5. LANTFLT Figure

44 Appendix 0.67 2.30 0.57 0.52 2.00 2.05 2.46 0.971.00 0.96 0.53 1.03 0.97 0.53 1.00 0.96 0.53 1.03 0.53 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 0.42 0.42 0.77 1.97 0.88 1.00 0.53 0.88 1.00 0.53 2018 2018 2018 2018 0.50 2.14 2.05 0.42 2.37 2.31 . G 0.50 0.58 0.48 0.60 0.57 0.48 VB C 0.33 0.85 2.38 2.37 1.070.53 1.00 0.53 1.03 0.53 1.07 0.53 1.03 0.53 0.78 0.88 0.96 1.12 0.88 1.27 0.98 1.10 0.90 0.93 1.27 0.82 1.10 0.82 2.31 orward deployed f 0.68 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 is in company with the ) verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence 0.00 0.870.53 0.15 0.27 0.00 0.00 A A A A A 0.42 0.42 0.000.00 0.27 0.00 0.88 0.27 1.14 0.53 1.07 0.53 1.00 0.53 1.25 1.18 1.12 0.87 1.28 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.25 or substitute station ship ( E O 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.83 1.75 1.50 0.50 0.00 1.030.53 1.03 0.53 1.03 0.53 1.07 0.53 1.03 0.53 At all times, an A : Where shown in red below, presence is less than the required (RQRD) presence. VE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015VE 2016 2017 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011VE 2012 2003 2013 2004 2014 2005 2015 2006 2016 2007 2017 2008 2009VE 2010 2003 2011 2004 2012 2005 2013 2006 2014 2007 2015 2008 2016 2009 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5.12 5.78 8.00 6.86 6.77 6.25 5.53 5.80 4.30 4.43 4.71 4.15 4.36 4.17 4.42 4.28 3.75 4.52 4.07 0.48 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.73 0.60 0.57 0.48 0.60 0.73 0.54 0.62 0.48 0.48 2.03 2.10 2.02 2.05 2.02 2.02 2.08 2.05 2.02 2.05 2.02 2.05 2.00 2.02 2.00 2.02 A A A A 1.17 1.93 1.82 1.10 2.43 1.23 0.93 0.87 0.79 2.64 2.39 3.72 3.55 2.89 2.97 2.96 3.22 2.64 2.47 1.06 0.830.53 1.75 0.53 1.50 0.53 0.75 0.53 1.25 0.53 1.18 0.53 1.12 0.53 0.87 0.53 1.28 0.53 1.13 0.53 0.78 0.53 0.88 0.53 0.96 0.53 1.12 0.53 0.88 0.53 0.53 AVE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.57 0.63 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.79 0.46 0.59 0.00 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.07 1.03 1.13 1.03 1.14 1.07 1.00 1.07 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.03 Note Note: 0.50 0.00 0.75 2.00 0.75 2.33 1.00 0.50 0.75 0.50 0.75 0.00 1.00 WL CLF TOTAL RQRD RQRD RQRD RQRD RQRD

S A

MMM MJ J WL TAKE+TAE 0.75 CC TAKE+TAFS 0.50 A MED TAKE+TAFS 1.00 FY 2020 MM C J P MM C J P CJP

SONDJ FM MM A

CJP ROS MJ J A MM FY 2019

CJP MMM C J P MMM C J P SONDJ FM ROS

A MMM MJ J A CJP 2121111221111220001211112110011 0001111001111001111011110111100 0110011111210201110001012202120

MMM

MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM SONDJ FM A

CJP MM C J P MM C J P

MJ J MMM MM MMM A MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM FY 2017 FY 2018 CJP MMM MM MMM

MMM MM MMM M MM MMM MM MM 11100112122111002 00011110111111110 22011000200220211

110001100011100011001100011000111000111111000110 JP 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00111001110001110121001110011100011101100011100 1 222211223333333222211222122233222222222233222222 112221111111020101121011111011021221011110120102 312232222123312212133213433421422121222223423122 JP ROS ONDJ FM M 3 (incl. AOE equivalents) G (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) VB CVBG 4 CVBG 5 CVBG 6 AOE 1 AOE 2 AOE 3 AOE 4 WL MED CC TAO 1 TAO 2 TAO 3 TAO 4 TAO 5 TAO 6 TAO 7 TAO 8 WL TAO MED TAO CC TAO TAE 1 TAE 2 TAE 3 WL TAE TAFS 1 TAFS 2 TAFS 3 WL TAFS MED TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 1 TAKE 2 TAKE 5 TAKE 7 TAKE 9 TAKE 11 WL TAKE MED TAKE CC TAKE CVBG 1 CVBG 2 C Figure 5.Figure I Alternative for timeline LANTFLT

45 Appendix R D DC W W W M W M W FY 2009 W W W DC

W DC D MM ROS FY 2008 WWWWWWWWW D DC

21101211210012100011100000 CJP MMCJP M MMM 2 M M DC DC

FY 2007 W = T-AKE READY TO DEPLOY DATE = FDNF STATION SHIP WESTPAC W WWWWWWWWW MMM D W W

122320112 W 2 W W W W 00000000001111111222111111001221111111111 00000000000000000000011111110011111222223 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000 D JP

CJP 1113332111 33

FY 2005 FY 2006 = SHUTTLE SHIP WESTPAC

r Hot transfe

MMMM MMMC J P MM MM TTTTTT CMJP S r Hot Transfe TTTTTT CMJP SMMMMTTTTTT CMJP SM 1200012000121000100011000110001210001000011000110001210002100120001200012100010 FY 2003 FY 2004 10110101101132222202122232112221211222433233212222210111101102122210211101000112 CVBG and STATION SHIP WESTPAC CVBG and STATION SHIP CENTCOM = SHUTTLE SHIP CENTCOM FDNF CVBG and STATION SHIP CENTCOM = EASTPAC/MIDPAC = = =

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incl. AOE equivalents) 0 1 1 1 0 (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) 0 0 1 0 OE 6 56 7 OE 8 OE OE OE MTTTTTTCMJP T T CMJ P SMMMM S P SMMMM SMM MMM C J P MM MMM C J P MM C J P MMM C TAO 9TAO TAO 10 MMM C J P MM MMM MM MMM MM TAO 11 12TAO 13TAO 14TAO 15TAO TAO MMM MM MMM MMM MM MM MM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MM MM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MM MMM MM MM A A A A TAKE 10 TAKE 12 TAKE 7 EP TAKE WP TAKE EP WP CC CC TAKE FDNF CVBG CVBG 11 CVBG 10CVBG CVBG 9 CVBG CVBG 7CVBG CVBG 8 CC TAFS TAKE 3 EP TAE WP TAE 4 5 6TAFS TAFS TAFS WP TAFS MM M MMM MMM MMM MM MM MM MMM MMM MMM MM MM MMM TAKE 8 TAKE 4 TAKE 6 TAE 4 TAE TAE 5 MMM C J P MM MMM MM MMM C J P TAE 6 7TAE TAE MMM MMM MM MM MMM MMM MM MMM MM TAO 16 TAO TAO 8 EP TAO WP TAO CC TAO MM MMM MM MMM C J P MM Figure 6. timeline forAlternative I PACFLT

46 Appendix M M FY 2016 CJP CJP

MMM MMC J P M

FY 2015 DC DC WRKUP M MM C J P MMM MMC J P FY 2014

CIVMOD CONVERSION P MM MMM J WRKUP MMM M FY 2013

MMM C J P MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM CIVMOD CONVERSION from LANTFLT

FY 2012

W from LANTFLT W W W CJP CJP W

MMM MMC J P MMM MM MMM W W W MMM MM MMM MM MMM W D MMM MM C J P MMM C MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM ROS DC

MMM MMC J P MMM MM MMM MM W MMM MM MMM MM MMM M W W MM C J P MMM C J P MM C J P MMM MM MMM W FY 2010 FY 2011

MMM C J P MM MMM MM C J P MMMC J P W W MM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM W MMMC J P MM C J P MMM C J P W 111111111111111111110001111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111000 J P 200011101102122211222200021212301021110110101212122121200111121112120111112111002220 001100011000120001100001100011000121000210012000120001210001000110001100012000110000 0000111001110011 MM 100011100111001110001110011001 11001110001110000001110011100111000111 MMM 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 222112222211122222111222211222222112222211122221112222211200 000000000000000000000 000000000000000000000 00122101111001 1001121101201111010111111101012011110101110111111221211100011112111111 32110113311122 0011121223322232110101123442223221221223331234443321134432234332343334 00001110011100 1110001110011100111000111001100111001110001110000001110011100111000111 233322232122210112333332223211132223222223211131221221122311343332312234422443343333 332222232201222331112232223123311122232222221221112222222223322322232201111222223332 111112111110011111211111101111112111111000111222211211110001111112111110011111211111 OS M MM MMM MMC J P MMM MM ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJAS MMM MM MMM MM C J P MMM C J P MM W R (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) CVBG 7 CVBG 8 CVBG 9 CVBG 10 CVBG 11 FDNF CVBG AOE 5 AOE 6 AOE 7 AOE 8 EP WP CC TAO 9 TAO 10 TAO 11 TAO 12 TAO 13 TAO 14 TAO 15 TAO 16 TAO 8 EP TAO WP TAO CC TAO TAE 4 TAE 5 TAE 6 TAE 7 EP TAE WP TAE TAFS 4 TAFS 5 TAFS 6 WP TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 3 TAKE 4 TAKE 6 TAKE 8 TAKE 10 TAKE 12 TAKE 7 EP TAKE WP TAKE CC TAKE Figure 6. timeline forAlternative I PACFLT

47 Appendix 0.33 0.33 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.76 0.84 1.00 3.85 3.92 4.57 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.33 1.00 1.01 3.79 0.58 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.42 2.83 3.10 3.02 3.18 2.85 2.92 1.27 1.10 2.77 3.17 2.94 2.45 2.44 2.52 0.42 0.67 0.50 0.42 0.58 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.33 1.87 1.69 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.76 1.08 1.01 1.50 1.42 1.56 1.50 1.52 2.37 2.35 1.27 1.17 2.12 2.28 2.02 2.02 verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.62 1.55 1.53 1.44 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.000.58 0.33 0.50 1.10 1.19 0.85 0.79 0.84 A A A A A 0.00 0.00 1.42 1.50 1.48 0.58 1.17 0.75 0.83 1.50 1.27 1.19 0.85 0.79 0.84 0.85 0.76 1.08 1.01 1.01 0.76 0.84 1.00 2.44 2.60 2.36 0.08 2.00 2.09 2.06 2.00 2.07 2.02 2.09 2.06 2.00 2.01 2.01 2.07 2.04 2.01 2.01 2.08 2.07 1.53 1.48 1.81 2.33 1.42 1.00 0.77 0.81 1.42 1.25 0.83 1.10 1.23 1.06 0.77 1.08 1.00 1.50 1.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.46 0.63 0.35 0.35 0.42 0.42 0.50 0.48 0.27 0.42 0.50 0.42 0.56 0.27 0.35 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.33 0.75 0.08 0.75 0.83 0.92 1.830.67 1.83 0.50 2.17 0.50 1.83 0.50 1.58 0.58 ll TAFSs are home ported in WP TAOs 10, 11, 12, and 13 are home ported in WP TAEs 5, 6 and 7 are home ported in WP A TAKEs 6, 7, 8 and 12 are home ported in WP. TAKE 4 is WP after 2014. At all times, an AOE (or substitute station ship) is in company with the forward deployed CVBG. : Where shown in red below, presence is less than the required (RQRD) presence. VE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 VE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010VE 2011 2003 2012 2004 2013 2005 2014 2006 2015 2007 2016 2008 2017 2009 2018 2010 2019 2011 2020 2012 2013VE 2014 2003 2015 2004 2016 2005 2017 2006 2018 2007 2019 2008 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4.12 3.20 3.56 4.65 5.22 4.92 4.34 3.99 3.75 4.27 4.09 3.69 3.87 4.39 4.11 0.52 0.67 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.67 0.50 0.901.83 0.75 1.83 1.83 2.17 1.83 1.58 1.62 1.88 1.53 1.50 1.52 2.37 2.35 2.89 1.39 1.63 1.35 1.35 2.04 1.04 1.13 1.07 1.00 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.07 1.07 AVE 20032.26 2004 2005 2.02 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 A A A A 1.19 0.52 0.67 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.67 0.50 1.61 1.42 1.58 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.75 1.58 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.33 Note: Note: Note: Note Note: 1.33 2.80 1.00 2.00 2.00 0.75 0.50 0.75 1.30 1.50 0.50 FDNF RQRD RQRD RQRD EP CLF TOTAL WP total - EP TAKE + TAE 0.75 CC TAKE + TAFS 0.50 WP TAKE + TAFS 1.50

MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM M M M M M M M M RQRD MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM

FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 MMMC J P MM C J P MMM MM MMM MMC J P Note: MMMC J P MM C J P MMM MM MMM MM MMMC J P MMC MMMC J P J P MMMC J P

M M M M M M M M RQRD MM MMM MM C J P MM MMM MM MMM MM 001110011100011100110011100111000111000000111001 552234432222233343224543332223443233443322133442 100211112111111101110101001111101211021111111111 111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 0011111121112221 10001111111111111111111111111111 1110133222432211 11212334443232100023332122321212 4555223331111122 34522322121122345422242232212244 001110121101221021110121102221011111223111221011 110001100012100021001200012000121000100011000110 001110011100011100110011100111000111000000111001 ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJAS MMC J P MM C J P MMM MM M MMM MM MMM (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) CVBG 7 CVBG 8 CVBG 9 CVBG 10 CVBG 11 FDNF CVBG AOE 5 AOE 6 AOE 7 AOE 8 EP WP CC TAO 9 TAO 10 TAO 11 TAO 12 TAO 13 TAO 14 TAO 15 TAO 16 TAO 8 EP TAO WP TAO CC TAO TAE 4 TAE 5 TAE 6 TAE 7 EP TAE WP TAE TAFS 4 TAFS 5 TAFS 6 WP TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 3 TAKE 4 TAKE 6 TAKE 8 TAKE 10 TAKE 12 TAKE 7 EP TAKE WP TAKE CC TAKE Figure 6. timeline forAlternative I PACFLT

48 Appendix

S 00 A MM 0

M MM MJ J A DC MM C J P MM C J P

CJP 01111213212 22100010011 SONDJ FM MMM

A CJP WWWWWWWWW MJ J D DC A MMM FY 2008 FY 2009

NDJ FM ROS MMM M MMMC J P MMMC J P O M M

S CJP A ROS WWWWWWWWW MMM MM D CJP MJ J

A FY 2007 MM CJP DC

MM MMM

SONDJ FM W A W T-AKE OR T-AOE(X) READY TO DEPLOY DATE DC = W DC DC CJP MM M W W

MJ J W W A W W ROS W W MMM W W

CJP W W W D W W MMM SONDJ FM W A W

TTTTTT W W 000000000000001112212111111112100122221100 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000111100 000000000000000000000000000000000000001122 D MJ J A TTTTTT MMMM FY 2005 FY 2006

CJP S = SHUTTLE SHIP MEDITERRANEAN = SHUTTLE SHIP CENTCOM

MMMM S CJP SONDJ FM

A ROS

JP MMM MM

MJ J M A JP M MM MMM C J P MMM MM C J P

MMM MM SONDJ FM A CJP MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM M

MJ J A ACT ROS MM FY 2003 FY 2004 TTTTTT C CVBG and STATION SHIP CENTCOM

= CVBG and STATION SHIP MEDITERRANEAN = WESTLANT & CARIBBEAN 1110011100111000111011000111001110011100011100111001110001110121001110011100011101 ACT ROS

= HT

000011112112221112222222111221122212111001110000000000000000000000000000000000000000 001210020010001001201210001011012200121011011000210220001001002100011000111110100100 221001101123221121110011111111101122000111112222111001111222110111001222000011000011 0011111111001111000011111 11111110000111111110000000111111110111111110000111100000000 332212123324553344543332434343334434233324333323443332343222323333133434434544423221 212222233332112222223333222223322222222221222333322222212233333323322111111122333333 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 102222132333222132322002220111101122212443233221112011221112110011101221101111021101 000001100011000111000111111000110001100011100011000110001110001100110001100011100011 TTTTT C ONDJ FM MMM (incl. AOE equivalents) 1 1 (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) CVBG 1 CVBG 2 CVBG 3 CVBG 4 TAO 4TAO 5TAO 6TAO 7 J P M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M TAKE 1 TAE 3 WL TAE TAFS 1 M M M M M M M M M M TAO 8 TAFS 2TAFS 3WL TAFS M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M MED TAFS CC TAFS TAE 1 J P TAE 2 TAKE 2 TAKE 5 WL MED CC TAKE 7 WL TAKE TAO 1 M M M M M M M M M M C J P TAO 2TAO 3 M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M CC TAKE MED CC TAOE 1 TAOE 3 WL AOE 4 C J P AOE 3 AOE 2 AOE 1 CVBG 6 CVBG 5 MED TAKE Figure 7. LANTFLT timeline for Alternative II II Alternative for timeline 7. LANTFLT Figure

49 Appendix S M A C

MJ J A MMM CJP FY 2016

MMM MMM 011111111000 CJP SONDJ FM

A MMM MJ J A CJP

FY 2015 MM ROS CJP

M M SONDJ FM M A

CJP MJ J MM MMM A MM FY 2014 CJP

DC MMM CJP SONDJ FM A

MMM MJ J M MMM MM A M M CJP FY 2013

ROS MM W DC

W DC MMM W MMM MM MMM MM W

CJP W SONDJ FM W A W D MM CJP

MJ J A MM FY 2012 GoTo PACFLT WRKUP

SONDJ FM A MM C J P MM MMM MM MMM MM CJP

MJ J GoTo PACFLT CIVMOD CONVERSION A MMM MM MMM MM MMM MMM ACT CJP MM MMM MM MMM MM W

W W WRKUP W MM MMM MMM W SONDJ FM MM MMM MM MMM MM W A MMM MM MMM MMC J P W

W MM MMM W MMM C J P MMM C J P MJ J W A W MMM MM MMM W FY 2010 FY 2011

W CIVMOD CONVERSION D MMC J P ROS MMMC J P ROS MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM 111100000000000001111000000001111000000000000000 210001210031111211221321222111100000000011120011011101110110000111101111120011011101 122211101100100001111111111110011111111111101112111121221001221111110011101111111221 000011110000011110000000000000001111111100011110111100001111001111111100

000000011100011000000000100100000000010000000000 000011100000000110000111000010000111100000000000 222233522332212333321344534342323122333233223334433433422232333234432232133323323433 333222122222222212233322222222222223333322222211122222233322222222223323322222222222 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000 111011010112010112101111011211033222321002331223110221112220012102221012221012110221 100011100111001110001110011100111000111012100111001110001110110001110011100111000111 111100011000110001110001100011000111000110011000110001110001111110001100011000111000 CJP M MMM MM MMM M ONDJ FM (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) CVBG 1 CVBG 2 CVBG 3 CVBG 4 CVBG 5 CVBG 6 AOE 1 AOE 2 AOE 3 AOE 4 TAOE 1 TAOE 3 WL MED CC TAO 1 TAO 2 TAO 3 TAO 4 TAO 5 TAO 6 TAO 7 TAO 8 WL MED CC TAE 1 TAE 2 TAE 3 WL TAE TAFS 1 TAFS 2 TAFS 3 WL TAFS MED TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 1 TAKE 2 TAKE 5 TAKE 7 WL TAKE MED TAKE CC TAKE Figure 7. LANTFLT timeline for Alternative II II Alternative for timeline 7. LANTFLT Figure

50 Appendix 0.67 2020 0.57 0.52 0.631.00 0.720.53 1.00 0.71 0.63 0.53 1.03 1.00 0.72 0.53 0.53 1.00 0.71 0.53 1.03 0.53 0.42 0.42 0.77 0.71 1.03 0.53 0.71 1.03 0.53 0.50 0.78 0.42 . G 0.50 0.58 0.48 0.60 0.57 0.48 VB C 0.62 0.72 0.71 0.33 0.85 orward deployed f

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 is in company with the ) verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence verage annual presence A A A A Average annual presence 0.42 0.42 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.75 0.27 0.92 0.27 0.67 0.27 0.75 0.27 0.98 0.53 1.00 0.53 1.03 0.53 1.07 0.53 0.25 1.25 1.18 1.28 0.94 1.53 0.86 0.62 0.72 0.71 0.78 or substitute station ship ( E O 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.83 1.75 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.831.03 1.750.53 1.03 1.50 0.53 1.03 0.75 0.53 1.07 1.25 0.53 1.03 1.18 0.53 1.13 1.28 0.53 1.03 0.94 0.53 1.15 1.53 0.53 1.03 0.86 0.53 1.07 0.53 1.03 0.53 1.00 0.53 1.03 0.53 1.07 0.53 1.030.53 1.03 0.53 1.03 0.53 1.07 0.53 1.03 0.53 0.87 0.53 0.28 0.27 0.23 0.27 0.37 0.27 0.32 0.27 0.05 0.00 At all times, an A : Where shown in red below, presence is less than the required (RQRD) presence. 0.60 VE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 VE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5.57 5.78 8.00 6.86 6.77 6.25 5.53 5.97 4.63 5.19 5.44 5.41 4.94 4.75 4.84 4.95 4.42 5.02 4.66 AVE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018AVE 2019 2003 2020 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.34 1.93 1.82 1.10 2.43 1.23 0.93 0.87 0.79 0.85 1.52 1.82 1.27 1.15 1.27 1.43 1.07 1.35 1.07 0.46 0.33 A A 0.99 1.05 0.49 0.60 0.73 0.60 0.57 0.48 0.60 0.73 0.54 0.62 0.48 0.48 2.932.03 2.390.00 2.10 3.72 0.00 2.02 3.55 0.00 2.05 2.89 0.00 2.02 2.97 0.00 2.02 2.96 0.00 2.08 3.22 0.00 2.05 2.64 0.00 2.02 2.63 0.00 2.05 2.89 0.00 2.02 2.88 0.00 2.05 2.96 0.00 2.00 2.89 0.00 2.020.56 2.79 0.00 2.00 2.81 0.63 0.00 2.02 2.72 0.71 0.00 2.05 2.96 0.71 0.00 2.00 2.88 0.70 0.00 2.05 0.79 0.00 0.46 0.60 0.26 0.18 0.18 0.09 02-19 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Note Note: 1.00 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.75 2.33 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 WL CLF TOTAL RQRD RQRD RQRD RQRD RQRD

S A MMM CJP MJ J WL TAKE+TAE 0.75 CC TAKE+TAFS 0.50

A MED TAKE+TAFS 1.00 FY 2020 MM CJP

121111211101 101011100021 011000111001 333223433233 222233222222 000000000000 SONDJ FM MM A CJP MJ J A CJP MM FY 2019

CJP MMM ROS SONDJ FM

A MMM MJ J A CJP

MMM

CJP MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM SONDJ FM A CJP MM MMM MM MM

MJ J MMM MM MMM A ROS 1101111111100001111001111001111001111011110 MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MM FY 2017 FY 2018 CJP MMM MM MMM

MMM MM MMM M MM MMM MM MM 111001121221110022121111221111220001 00011 220110001001101110110010111100101110

JP 423343332123321223244324433422433232 112221112112121101121012111121121221011111221102 00111001110001110121001110011100011 1 110001100011100011001100011000111000111111000110 222211223333333332211221122233222222 000000000000000000000000000000000000 ONDJ FM M (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) CVBG 1 CVBG 2 CVBG 3 CVBG 4 CVBG 5 CVBG 6 AOE 1 AOE 2 AOE 3 AOE 4 TAOE 1 TAOE 3 WL MED CC TAO 1 TAO 2 TAO 3 TAO 4 TAO 5 TAO 6 TAO 7 TAO 8 WL MED CC TAE 1 TAE 2 TAE 3 WL TAE TAFS 1 TAFS 2 TAFS 3 WL TAFS MED TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 1 TAKE 2 TAKE 5 TAKE 7 WL TAKE MED TAKE CC TAKE Figure 7. timeline for LANTFLT AlternativeII

51 Appendix R DC W W W W W FY 2009 W W W DC

W DC D MM ROS FY 2008

WWWWWWWWW D DC

DC DC

FY 2007 W = FDNF STATION SHIP WESTPAC = T-AKE or T-AOE(X) READY TO DEPLOY DATE WWWWWWWWW MMM W D W W

W W W W W 00000000001111111122111111001221001111111 00000000000000000100011111110111122222232 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000 D MM MM MMM M CJP CJP

TTTTTT CMJP SM

MMMM FY 2005 FY 2006

r 33221221223311133321112122320112221101211210012100011100000 23 Hot transfe

FY 2004 r MMMMT T T TT T CMJ P S Hot Transfe TTTTTT CMJPS MMMM FY 2003 CVBG and STATION SHIP CENTCOM = SHUTTLE SHIP CENTCOM FDNF CVBG and STATION SHIP CENTCOM = EASTPAC/MIDPAC CVBG and STATION SHIP WESTPAC = SHUTTLE SHIP WESTPAC 010110101101132222202122232112221211222433233212222210111101102122210211101000112 = = =

11100111001110001110000001110011100011100111001110011100 01110011001110011100011100 ACT TTTTTTCMJP SMMMM MMMC JP MM MMMC JP MM C JP 111110011100111000111000000111001110011100011100111001110001110011001110011100011100 11122331113322121212232 111111100011010000000000111110011111111111110001111111111110011010000000000000000000 111111122222111222211222222112222211122222111222211222222112222211122222111222211222 111111111111111111111111111111111111111111100011111111111111111111111111111111111111 111223321233221121122211343322232113311233433332233311233322232121100122212332233211 331211111333223232211122221232232212222321122232221023222232232322211222112232222123 011101200012000121000100011000110001210001000011000110001210002100120001200012100010 221110111111111111111111111111111110011112111111001111122111110000112222122111110001 ACT ONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJJASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J AS (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) 1 1 (incl. AOE equivalents) 0 0 1 TAKE 8 TAKE 4 TAKE 6 TAKE 3 CC TAFS TAFS 4TAFS 5TAFS 6WP TAFS M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M EP TAE WP TAE TAO 11TAO 12TAO 13TAO 14TAO 15TAO 16TAO 8 EP TAO M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M C M M M J P M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M TAO 9TAO TAO 10 WP TAO M M M C J P M M M M M M M M M M M M WP FDNF TAE 4TAE 5 M M M C J P M M M M M M M M M C J P FDNF CVBG 5AOE 7 AOE 6 8AOE AOE TAOE 2 TAOE 4 T TEP C M WP S M J P P S S M MTAE 6TAE 7 M M M C J P M M M M M M M M M M M M C M J P M M M M C J P M M M M M M C M M M M M M M CVBG 8 CC TAO CC CVBG 7CVBG CVBG 9CVBG 11CVBG CVBG 10 TAKE 9 TAKE 2 EP TAKE WP TAKE CC TAKE Figure 8. timeline forAlternative II PACFLT

52 Appendix 00 0 FY 2016 CJP CJP DC

MMM M

FY 2015 MM MM ROS M C J P MMM MMC J P WRKUP FY 2014

CJP MMCJP DC CIVMOD CONVERSION DC DC W MMM MM MMM W W WRKUP W W

W FY 2013 MMM C J P MM MMMC J P MM W D

MM DC W CIVMOD CONVERSION W W W

W W FY 2012 from LANTFLT W D

from PACFLT ROS CJP CJP

MMM MMC J P MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MMM MM C J P MMM MM MMM M MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM

MMM MMC J P MMMC J P MM MMM MM W MMM MM MMM MM MMM M W W MM C J P MMM C J P MM C J P MMM MM MMM W FY 2010 FY 2011

MMM C J P MM MMM MM MMM MM W W MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM W MMMC J P MM C J P MMM C J P W 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 222112222211122222111222211222222112222211122200 00000000 00000000 233322232122210112333332223311142113211123311243223322322311232123322244311232233432 332222232201222331112232222123211133332332221111112222222223333222232101122332222221 111112111110011111211111101111112111111000111222211211110001111112111110011111211111 200011101102122211222200021212301022221210112223232221211222332333320112223222113320 001100011000121000100001100011000121000210012000120001210001000110001100012100010000 0000 111001110001110011100111001110 00111001100111001110001110000001110011100011100111 111111111111111111110001111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11 1221011010011112232212201122010000011102111001111111111111000111111100000001111111 22 1101133321231111121113321012110133222321133110232223343334333332233324454221343222 00 0011100111001110001110011100111000111001100111001110001110000001110011100111000111 J P MM MMM D OS MMM MM MMM MM M MM MMM MM MMM MM ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJAS R (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) CVBG 7 CVBG 8 CVBG 9 CVBG 10 CVBG 11 FDNF CVBG AOE 5 AOE 6 AOE 7 AOE 8 TAOE 2 TAOE 4 EP WP CC WP FDNF TAO 9 TAO 10 TAO 11 TAO 12 TAO 13 TAO 14 TAO 15 TAO 16 TAO 8 EP TAO WP TAO CC TAO TAE 4 TAE 5 TAE 6 TAE 7 EP TAE WP TAE TAFS 4 TAFS 5 TAFS 6 WP TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 3 TAKE 4 TAKE 6 TAKE 8 TAKE 9 TAKE 2 EP TAKE WP TAKE CC TAKE Figure 8. timeline forAlternative II PACFLT

53 Appendix 0.33 0.33 2.92 2.83 2.75 0.75 0.83 1.00 0.75 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.33 0.58 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.59 0.59 0.42 1.27 1.10 . G 2.83 2.85 2.85 2.92 VB C 1.50 1.42 1.56 orward deployed f 1.27 1.17 2.12 2.28 2.02 2.03 2.03 2.19 2.52 2.44 2.36 2.12 2.36 2.53 is in company with the ) verage annual presence verage annual presence 1.44 Average annual presence Average annual presence Average annual presence A A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.67 0.50 0.42 0.58 0.50 0.58 0.58 0.33 0.580.00 1.02 0.70 1.02 1.70 0.93 1.68 1.52 1.53 0.77 1.53 0.76 1.77 1.00 0.59 0.59 0.75 0.83 1.00 0.75 1.42 1.50 1.48 1.17 or substitute station ship ( E 0.83 0.75 1.50 1.27 1.02 0.93 1.52 0.77 0.76 1.00 2.44 2.60 2.36 O 0.08 1.48 1.81 2.33 1.42 1.00 0.77 0.81 1.42 1.33 1.50 1.77 2.23 1.902.00 1.27 2.09 1.33 2.06 1.17 2.00 1.67 2.07 2.02 2.09 2.06 2.02 2.08 2.01 2.07 2.07 2.01 2.01 2.00 2.00 1.53 0.75 0.08 0.83 0.75 0.92 0.25 0.00 0.001.830.67 0.00 1.83 0.50 0.00 2.17 0.50 0.00 1.83 0.50 1.58 0.58 1.00 0.58 0.33 0.50 0.46 1.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 ll TAFSs are home ported in WP TAKEs 6 and 8 are home ported in WP. 4, 9, 2 WP after 2013 2014. Where shown in red, presence is less than the required (RQRD) presence. A TAOs 10, 11, 12, and 13 are home ported in WP TAEs 5, 6 and 7 are home ported in WP : At all times, an A VE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010VE 2011 2003 2012 2004 2013 2005 2014 2006 2015 2007 2016 2008 2017 2009 2018 2010 2019 2011 2020 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1.770.54 1.83 0.67 1.83 0.50 2.174.46 0.50 1.83 3.23 0.50 1.58 3.09 0.58 1.70 5.09 0.58 2.03 5.68 0.50 1.68 5.27 0.50 1.53 3.71 0.50 1.53 3.90 0.50 1.77 4.02 0.67 4.95 0.50 4.13 4.28 4.96 5.35 4.93 4.38 4.28 4.52 4.94 0.88 0.75 2.85 AVE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 A A 1.61 1.42 1.58 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.75 1.58 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.42 0.440.54 0.63 0.67 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.50 0.42 0.50 0.42 0.58 0.50 0.58 0.48 0.50 0.27 0.50 0.42 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.42 0.67 0.561.05 0.50 0.27 1.13 0.35 1.07 0.48 1.00 0.50 1.05 0.50 1.07 0.33 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.07 1.07 AVE 20031.41 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016AVE 2017 2003 20182.17 2004 20192.04 2005 2.02 2020 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1.39 1.63 1.35 1.35 Note: Note Note: Note: Note: 1.33 2.80 0.75 1.30 1.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.75 2.00 2.00 FDNF RQRD RQRD RQRD RQRD WP total -

EP TAKE + TAE 0.75 WP TAKE + AOE EP CLF TOTAL

CC TAKE + TAFS 0.50 WP TAKE + TAFS 1.50 FY 2020 FY 2019

MM MMM ROS P

MM C J P MMMC J P ROS P

MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM MMM MMM MM MMM

M M M M M M M RQRD MMM MM MMM FY 2017 FY 2018 MMMC J P MM C J P MMMC J P MMM MM MMM MM MMM MM Note: MM MMM MM

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incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) (incl. AOE equivalents) CC WP FDNF TAO 9 TAO 10 TAO 11 TAO 12 TAO 13 TAO 14 TAO 15 TAO 16 TAO 8 EP TAO WP TAO CC TAO TAE 4 TAE 5 TAE 6 TAE 7 EP TAE WP TAE TAFS 4 TAFS 5 TAFS 6 WP TAFS CC TAFS TAKE 3 TAKE 4 TAKE 6 TAKE 8 TAKE 9 TAKE 2 EP TAKE WP TAKE CC TAKE CVBG 7 CVBG 8 CVBG 9 CVBG 10 CVBG 11 FDNF CVBG AOE 5 AOE 6 AOE 7 AOE 8 TAOE 2 TAOE 4 EP WP Figure 8. timeline forAlternative II PACFLT

54 References

[1] Burnham C. McCaffree Jr. and John F. Ince, Transitioning the- Combat Logistics Force into the 21st Century, Unclassified, May 1998 (CNA Research Memorandum 98-69)

[2] Burnham C. McCaffree Jr. and John F. Ince, Building a Combat Logistics Force for the Future, Unclassified, Sep 1999 (CNA Anno- tated Briefing 99-50)

[3] Dr. John F. Ince and CAPT John Vuolo, USN, Fleet Analysis of the Combat Logistics Force (U), FOUO, Aug 2001 (CINC-LANT- FLT N81)

[4] CINCLANTFLT CLF Peacetime Force Presence Structure Working Group Conference on 25-26 Jul 2001, Norfolk, VA

[5] 2002 GNFPP Scheduling Conference, CY 02-07 GNFPP CVBG Schedules (U)(Brief), Secret, Jun 2002

[6] RADM Burnham C. McCaffree Jr., USN (Ret.), Future Options for Combat Logistics Force (CLF) Peacetime Forward Presence, Unclassified, Nov 1997 (CNA Annotated Briefing 97-64)

[7] CINCLANTFLT Norfolk VA, message 071755Z SEP 2001 Combat Logistics Force Peacetime Force Structure Recommendations, Unclassified

[8] CINCLANTFLT Employment Schedules - Battle Group (U), Jan 2002 and Aug 2002, Secret, CINCLANTFLT web site

[9] CINCPACFLT CVBG long-range deployment plan (U), Aug 2001 to Jul 2002, Secret, CINCPACFLT web site

[10] OPNAV N4 Logistics Crisis Action Center, Daily CLF Locations (U), Confidential, Oct 2001 through Mar 2002

55 [11] CNO Navy Command Center Daily Operations Notes (OPNOTEs) for 1-30 Apr 2002, Unclassified

[12] Burnham C. McCaffree Jr. and Wendy R. Trickey, Trip Report from CINCLANTFLT CLF peacetime force structure working group conference on 25-26 July 2001, Unclassified, Aug 2001 (CNA Memorandum D0004432.A2)

[13] Email from OPNAV Code N512K to OPNAV Code N42C, Subj: GNFPP Presence, 4 Apr 2001

[14] Phone conversation between CNA RADM McCaffree and COMSC PM-1D, 28 Aug 2002

[15] Commander Military Sealift Command, PM-1D, Memoran- dum: CLF Employment Timelines, Unclassified, 24 Oct 2001

[16] Burnham C. McCaffree Jr. and Wendy R. Trickey, Report of trip to CINCPACFLT headquarters the week of March 19, Unclassi- fied, 3 Apr 2001 (CNA Memorandum D0003378.A1)

[17] Combat Logistics Force Senior Leadership Conference, TAKE Program Update (Brief), May 2002

[18] Phone conversation between OPNAV N424 and CNA RADM B.C. McCaffree, Feb 2002

[19] OPNAV N42 Ships And Aircraft Data Tables (SASDT) input: FL37 Changes to PE: 020441N Underway Replenishment Ships, Unclassified, Feb 2002

56 List of figures

Figure 1. Notional maintenance schedule for an MSC ship . . 15

Figure 2. Number of CLF ships from FY 2003 through 2009 . 35

Figure 3. Number of CLF ships from FY 2010 to 2020 . . . . . 36

Figure 4. How well CLF ships meet presence requirement from 2010 to 2020 ...... 37

Figure 5. LANTFLT timeline for Alternative I ...... 43

Figure 6. PACFLT timeline for Alternative I ...... 46

Figure 7. LANTFLT timeline for Alternative II...... 49

Figure 8. PACFLT timeline for Alternative II ...... 52

List of tables

Table 1. Alternative CLF force levels in the far-term (2016-2020) ...... 3

Table 2. CLF presence requirements on 17 June 1997 . . . . 11

Table 3. CLF presence requirements in August 2001 . . . . . 11

Table 4. CLF future presence requirements...... 13

Table 5. Shuttle ship transit times between theaters and the distribution of the month during transit. . . . . 17

Table 6. The numbers and status of each ship type for the timeline transitioning to 12 T-AKEs (Alternative I) ...... 26

Table 7. The numbers and status of each ship type for the timeline transitioning to 9 T-AKEs and 4 T-AOE(X)s (Alternative II) ...... 32

Table 8. List of abbreviations ...... 42

Distribution list

SNDL 21A1 CINCLANTFLT NORFOLK VA Attn: N3 Attn: N41 Attn: N806 Attn: N83G

21A2 CINCPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI Attn: N3 Attn: N4 Attn: N83

22A2 COMSEVENTHFLT Attn: CNA Rep Attn: N3 Attn: N4

22A3 COMSIXTHFLT Attn: CNA Rep Attn: N3 Attn: N4

22A4 COMFIFTHFLT Attn: CNA Rep Attn: N3 Attn: N4

23B4 COMLOGFORNAVCENT Attn: N00 Attn: N3 Attn: N4

61 28C1 COMSERFORSIXTHFLT Attn: N00 Attn: N3 Attn: N4

28C2 COMLOG WESTPAC (CTF 73) Attn: N00 Attn: N3 Attn: N4

28J1 COMLOGRON TWO Attn: N00 Attn: N3 Attn: N4

41A COMSC WASHINGTON DC Attn: N00 Attn: N3 Attn: PM1 Attn: PM12

OPNAV N4 N42 N424 N3/N5 N81 N817