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Reputational Effects in Legislative Elections: Measuring the Impact of Repeat Candidacy and Interest Group Endorsements

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Reputational Effects in Legislative Elections: Measuring the Impact of Repeat Candidacy and Interest Group Endorsements REPUTATIONAL EFFECTS IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: MEASURING THE IMPACT OF REPEAT CANDIDACY AND INTEREST GROUP ENDORSEMENTS A Dissertation Submitted to the Temple University Graduate Board In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY by James Brendan Kelley December 2018 Examining Committee Members: Robin Kolodny, Advisory Chair, Political Science Ryan J. Vander Wielen, Examination Chair, Political Science Kevin Arceneaux, Political Science Joshua Klugman, Sociology and Psychology ABSTRACT This dissertation consists of three projects related to reputational effects in legislative elections. Building on the candidate emergence, repeat candidates and congressional donor literatures, these articles use novel datasets to further our understanding of repeat candidacy and the impact of interest group endorsements on candidate contributions. The first project examines the conditions under which losing state legislative candidates will appear on the successive general election ballot. Broadly speaking, I find a good deal of support for the notion that candidates respond rationally to changes in their political environment when determining whether to run again. The second project aims to measure the impact of repeat candidacy on state legislative election outcomes. Ultimately I find a reward/penalty structure through which losing candidates for lower chamber seats that perform well in their first election have a slight advantage over first- time candidates in their repeat elections. The final chapter of this dissertation examines the relationship between interest group endorsements and individual contributions for 2010 U.S. Senate candidates. The results of this chapter suggest that some interest group endorsements lead to increased campaign contributions, as compared to unendorsed candidates, but that others do not. This research points to a number of opportunities for future research as the relationship between endorsements and campaign resources is vastly understudied. ii To Sharon, for her endless love and support. And to my father, who left us too soon. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I owe a large debt of gratitude to many who have encouraged and supported my efforts at Temple University. First and foremost, I would not have been able to complete this project without the guidance and support of my advisory committee, Robin Kolodny, Ryan Vander Wielen and Kevin Arceneaux. I could not have chosen a better fitting committee, one which was able to tolerate the uneven pace of my writing but always eager to read the next iteration. Without your patience, I am confident my efforts would have stalled long ago. Robin guided my graduate school career as my advisor and encouraged me to dive into my interests headfirst. This ultimately led to an independent study on parties in which I learned more than I have in any other course. During the dissertation phase, she provided endless guidance, held me accountable to deadlines and pushed me to finish. I am confident I would still be tinkering with this project for not your insistence it was time to defend. Ryan inherited this project as I moved to candidacy and the rest of the committee was on sabbatical. He bore the burden of getting me through design and interpreting results, and he pushed me to get my thoughts on paper. Thank you for being willing to work so closely with me on this project and for always answering the phone. Having a mentor interested and invested in my project kept me moving forward. Vin similarly provided much needed and timely advice along the way. In addition to providing practical solutions to methodological problems, Vin reminded me to not let great be the enemy of good. This advice encouraged me to push through insecurities and circulate drafts even if I thought they weren’t perfect (and they weren’t). iv I am also thankful for Josh Klugman’s willingness to serve as an outside reader on this dissertation. Thank you for being willing to take on this project in short order, and for sacrificing your holiday weekend to read my work. Your methodological concerns were valuable and led to an interesting debate in the defense. Further, they were substantively important and something I will not forget. I owe thanks to Tom Carsey, Jon Winburn and Gerald Wright, for sharing their state legislative district partisanship data. These data were essential to my models and are a significant contribution to the study of state legislative elections. Beyond my advisory committee, I owe much to the supportive and collaborative Political Science department, both faculty and students. I am indebted to many professors who encouraged me along the way, especially Michael Hagen, Chris Wlezien and Megan Mullin. I would be remiss not to recognize my fellow students who supported one another, provided sounding boards for research and made themselves available. These include Meghan Rubado, Nick Anspach, Jay Jennings, Nate Shrader, Alex Melonas, Desiree Melonas, Brett Miller, Travis Blemings, Arnold Kim and Danielle Scherer, among others. As I worked through much of my graduate education, I owe thanks to the many supervisors who encouraged me. These include David Ginsberg, Trish Cabrey, Marcelo Solari Parravicini, Tara Lasker and Jay Weiner. I am especially grateful for my colleagues at Chadwick Martin Bailey, who encouraged me to keep writing, were genuinely interested in my progress and celebrated my defense. I am lucky to work in such a supportive environment. v I would not be who I am today without the love and support of my family and friends. My parents, Mike and Rose Kelley and Brenda and Jeff St. Thomas made me fearless and persistent. They encouraged me to reach for things that were difficult and to take failure in stride. My many siblings similarly provided support and were patient with my many absences from family events. Thank you to Michael, Matthew, Joseph, Abigail, Bethany and Jennifer. My other family, the Messenheimers and Cunninghams, encouraged me to keep going. Thank you to Kathe, Ron, Laura, Jill, Keith and Barbara. Thank you also to Ryan Haney and Luke Kwiecinski who served as sounding boards, offered technical solutions to data collection and found ways to distract me when I needed it. Finally, I cannot imagine being where I am today without the love and support of my wife, Sharon. She read and edited more drafts than I can count, reminded me that my research was important, even when I doubted it, and kept me focused on the larger goal. My research would have been far worse without your contributions. I will be lucky to be half the scholar you are. Thank you. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………………ii DEDICATION……………………………………………………………………………iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………………iv LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………...x LIST OF FIGURES……...……………………………………………………………...xiii CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION TO THE PROJECT……………………………..………………..1 2. PREDICTING REPEAT CANDIDATES IN STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS..................................................................................................................3 Introduction……………………………………………………………………......3 Theories of Candidate Emergence………………………………………………...4 Predicting Repeat Candidates: The Literature…………………………………...11 Data………………………………………………………………………………17 Hypotheses……………………………………………………………………….31 Results……………………………………………………………………………41 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………….63 3. MEASURING THE EFFECTIVNESS OF STATE LEGISLATIVE REPEAT CAMPAIGNS………………………………………………………………………..66 Introduction………………………………………………………………………66 Repeat Campaign Effectiveness: The Literature……………………………..….66 vii Theory……………………………………………………………………………74 Data………………………………………………………………………………76 Analysis…………………………………………………………………………..77 Are the Outcomes of Sequential Elections Statistically Related?.............78 Are Electoral Outcomes Significantly Different for Repeat and First-Time Candidates?................................................................................................85 Are Repeat and First-Time Candidates Substantively Different in Terms of Candidates Characteristics or Electoral Contexts?....................................93 What Differences Exist Between Winning and Losing Repeat Candidates’ First Campaigns?.......................................................................................97 What Differences Exist Between Repeat Candidates’ First and Second Campaigns that Might Explain Disparate Outcomes?.............................101 Are Future Campaign Contributions Contingent Upon a Candidate’s Initial Performance?...........................................................................................105 Controlling for Other Considerations, Do Repeat Candidates Receive Higher Average Vote Share?...................................................................110 Discussion……………………………………………………………………....126 4. MEASURING THE IMPACT OF INTEREST GROUP ENDORSEMENTS ON U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS…………………………………….…129 Introduction…………………………………………………………………......129 Previous Literature on Political Donors………………………………………...130 Interest Group Endorsements and Donors……………………………………...140 Data and Methods………………………………………………………………145 viii Main Independent Variables……………………………………………156 Other Control Variables………………………………………………...170 Analysis…………………………………………………………………175 Discussion………………………………………………………………194 5. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………….197 REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………200 ix LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 2-1. Elections Included in the Dataset…………………………………………….20 Table
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