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Airplus Business Travel 2060. a Glimpse 50 Years Into the Future of Business Travel

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Airplus Business Travel 2060. a Glimpse 50 Years Into the Future of Business Travel AirPlus Business Travel 2060. A glimpse 50 years into the future of business travel. AIRPLUS. WHAT TRAVEL PAYMENT IS ALL ABOUT. This paper intends to cover the economic, social, cultural, infrastructural, technological and environmental factors that may impact the business travel industry over the next 50 years. 1 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. The future is almost impossible to predict, but we can present some educated ideas. teleconference, videoconference or face to face. With ever-increasing pressures to measure business travel’s return on investment, using the most cost effective technique to get people communicating while achieving results will be vital. We hope you will read on with interest, not because you need to adjust your travel programme to respond today, but as a passionate participant in the field of business travel. Dear Reader, Yael Klein UK Managing Director Looking into the future of business travel is AirPlus International tough, as so many factors influence the industry. An ongoing tug of war will inevitably occur between cultural changes in the way people will want to live their lives, economic developments of those nations that will emerge as more powerful than the west, and environmental factors which will urge the population to think ever more about the effect their actions have on the planet’s well-being. This paper is by no means a definitive outlook on what the world will look like in 50 years, that’s anyone’s guess, but we intend to outline some of the key trends and possible scenarios that may emerge and could have a significant impact on the way travel management is conducted. I think the most interesting proposal is the concept of travel management becoming a thing of the past. Travel managers will become, in essence, mobility managers or meetings managers: responsible for getting people in front of one another by the most appropriate means, whether that be via WebEx, 2 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. 3 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. Contents. Welcome from AirPlus International Global travel and infrastructure Business travel timeline 2020-2060 16 Distribution 16 Supply chain Introduction 17 Asymmetric mobility 17 The rise of the Mobility Integrator 20 predictions for business travel in 17 Travel Management Company or Mobility Management Company 2060 18 Car sharing The potential state of the economic 18 High-speed rail environment The future of technology 8 Scarcity of natural resources 8 BRICS nations come out on top 20 Virtual meetings space 9 Politics 20 Driverless future 21 You can drive my car Social and cultural change around 21 Driverless planes the world 22 Supersonic air travel 22 Sleeping on the job 12 Population growth 12 Urbanisation The environment 12 Communication and interconnectedness 24 Climate change 13 Travel management 2.0 25 Sustainability 13 Work–life balance and return on 25 New aircraft materials investment Conclusion 4 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. Business travel timeline 2020-2060. Economic Social Infrastructure Technology Environment 2035 Economic decline in the 2020-2035 Middle East 2022 Water becomes 2020-2035 Worldwide oil crisis Global tin a weapon of war reserves run out BRICS nations overtake the G7 Global population 2027 reaches 8 billion Sharp increase in cars 2030 that are either plug-in electric or hybrid 2020 Hypersonic China becoming airliners enter Human-like heavily urbanised 2033 service AI becomes High-speed rail 2029 a reality networks being expanded in 2025 many countries Transcontinental bridge links Sea levels rise: Africa and Middle East Bangkok abandoned 2031 due to flooding The first self-sufficient, 2020 car-free city – Masdar City 5 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. The Earth is the hottest it has been for over 3 million 2056 years 2035-2040 2044 Russia becomes a food superpower Transglobal 2061 UK population road and rail reaches 80 network opens million, becoming Europe‘s biggest country 2061 Gulf Coast abandoned due to super- Maximum long- 2045 hurricanes distance air travel time 2.5 hours Global population reaches 9 billion Virtual telepathy dominates personal Global average communication temperatures Green energy 2041 rise by 20°C resources make up to 30% of global energy 2050 consumption 6 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. Introduction. Note from the writer Crystal-ball gazing is never future-proof. In such an uncertain world there are inherent difficulties in looking ahead just 10 years, let alone 50. Would industry commentators in 1963, heralding the development of Concorde, have predicted the smartphone, or the multicultural societies using them? Although plenty of predictions have been made of what the world will look like in 2060, there is unfortunately no common, convenient time horizon. The year 2000 had a symmetry that 2060 does not. Therefore, in this paper you will see references to 2040, 2050 and 2060. The consensus is that the twenty-first century will bring unique challenges. Natural resources, such as oil and water, will become scarcer with worrying consequences for global security, financial stability and consequently business travel. The world’s population will continue to rise, creating an increasingly mobile workforce that will need to travel to do business and generate wealth. The degree to which this will actually happen is the subject of this paper. The contents may be speculative, but that speculation is an extrapolation of what we know now, existing trends and what others predict will happen over the next 50 years. Mark Harris Travel Intelligence Network 7 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. 20 predictions for business travel in 2060. 1. Business travel will encompass every facet of the trip, from door to door 2. Supersonic air travel will reduce all journeys to 2.5 hours or less 3. International business travel volumes will dwarf domestic travel 5. The cost of business travel will rise 4. Business travel will be concentrated sharply as natural resources dry up on 20-30 urban networks across and prices escalate the globe 6. Travel and meetings will be single-cost items on company balance sheets Head offices and regional Company-wide travel programmes 8. 7. offices will be a rarity as third- will not exist; travellers will make space working becomes common informed travel choices practice and commuting the exception 9. Travel for internal meetings will be financially unviable and socially unacceptable Most, if not all, internal meetings 10. Irresponsible travel buying will be conducted through hologram 11. by employees will be deemed videoconferencing gross misconduct 13. IT will become the major stakeholder in corporate 12. Travel Managers will travel management become ‘Mobility Managers’ or ‘Employee Productivity Managers’ 14. Traveller security will be a bigger priority than cost reduction 15. International law and order will disintegrate and pandemics will 16. Transport modes will finally become become more frequent, interconnected and interdependent, increasing the risk to travellers sharing booking platforms, ticketing and data systems 17. TMCs will no longer fulfil travel bookings, which will be made 18. Data privacy will be obsolete exclusively online direct with suppliers and tracked using 19. 90% of trains will run on time harmonised systems 20. Those responsible for travel within corporates will still need help and advice The irony is that, while many of the above are still many years off, the seeds of many others are being sown today. It’s a matter of when, rather than if. 8 AIRPLUS. BUSINESS TRAVEL 2060. The potential state of the economic environment. A global shift in economic powers will have a massive effect on how people do business abroad. Summary Scarcity of natural resources The next 50 years will see major changes in country shares in the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). The global travel industry has intrinsic links to the China is expected to become the largest economy natural environment and is therefore vulnerable to in the world by 2020; India is projected to overtake changing climates and resource shortages. Japan by the same date and the Eurozone by 2040. For example, water is a critical natural resource that is These changes will be driven by a better educated, generally overused by travel suppliers and consumers more productive workforce – especially in the BRICS in hotels, swimming pools and so on. The resulting nations, in turn driving international travel to and degradation of water supplies will inevitably impact from these countries. on business travel through rising costs. Oil shortages will have the same effect, whilst a boom in the oil The global economy is expected to grow 2.8% supply will drive productivity and therefore travel. by 2040, with Asia and Africa and the BRICS nations leading the way by 2027. The Organisation for The World Travel and Tourism Council estimates Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that business travel generates a return on investment predicts that the Chinese and Indian economies ratio of 10:1. WTTC also attributes one-third of the will have eclipsed the West by 2060. growth in global trade in the first decade of the twenty-first century to international business travel. The recession of 2008-2012 changed corporate Any scarcity of natural resources would inevitably attitudes to travel forever. Most company travel impact upon that productivity. policies were either downgraded, frozen or travel alternatives adopted. There is little sign of an appetite BRICS nations come out on top for a return to pre-recession practices, while soaring energy and fuel bills will inevitably be reflected in As the BRICS nations increase their overall share higher business travel costs. of global productivity, so business travel between these countries and the rest of the world will increase However, productivity will be a key driver of growth, as new customers and trading partners are sought. so there should always be a place for the face to face meeting, providing the purpose of the trip is The BRICS are already committed business travellers.
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