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The Population Dynamics of Tansy Ragwort (Senecio Jacobaea) In THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF TANSY RAGWORT (SENECIO JACOBAEA) IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA by Brad David Bauer A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Land Resources and Environmental Sciences MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY Bozeman, Montana February 2006 ©COPYRIGHT by Brad David Bauer 2006 All Rights Reserved ii APPROVAL of a thesis submitted by Brad David Bauer This thesis has been read by each member of the thesis committee and has been found to be satisfactory regarding content, English usage, format, citations, bibliographic style, and consistency, and is ready for submission to the College of Graduate Studies. Dr. Bruce D. Maxwell Approved for the Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences Dr. Jon M. Wraith Approved for the College of Graduate Studies Dr. Joseph Fedock iii STATEMENT OF PERMISSION TO USE In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master’s degree at Montana State University, I agree that the Library shall make it available to borrowers under rules of the Library. If I have indicated my intention to copyright this thesis by including a copyright notice page, copying is allowable only for scholarly purposes, consistent with “fair use” as prescribed in the U.S. Copyright Law. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this thesis in whole or in parts may be granted only by the copyright holder. Brad David Bauer February 6, 2006 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I express my gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Bruce Maxwell. He contacted me in Iowa with an opportunity to study the population dynamics of a plant species I had not hear of, in far away Montana. Dr. Maxwell has provided me guidance, ideas, and insight to this project. He has also shown me what it is to be a good scientist and an interesting person. I also thank members of my advisory committee George Markin, Lisa Rew, Theodore Weaver, and Cathy Zabinski for their help with the initiation of the project, with courses and related work, and with their direction and helpful reviews with my thesis. I thank Meghan Trainor for initiating the first three years of data collection, interpretation, and guidance for continuation of this project. I am grateful for the help Frank Dougher has provided with my many questions regarding GIS and model building, and to Jay Rotella for assistance and much need insight into using R software to construct and use matrix models. Over the course of my study here at MSU I have had the great fortune of meeting and working with many people who have also become my friends. These include my colleagues in the weed ecology lab including Nicole Wagner, Erik Lehnhoff, Charles Repath, Fred Pollnac, Kristin Harwood, Tim Seipel, Mara Johnson, Karin Neff, Amanda Morrison, and Brenda Sanchez. I would also like to thank Canoe Gulch Ranger Station, especially Ann Odor and Rudy Geber, David Friedman of Plum Creek Timber Company, and the Montana DNRC for help in the Kootenai National Forest and providing me a place to conduct my research and to live. Funding for this research was provided by the United States Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Bozeman, Montana. v TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. REVIEW OF LITERATURE ..............................................................................1 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................1 TANSY RAGWORT .....................................................................................................2 Geographic Range and History....................................................................2 Habitat..........................................................................................................5 Morphology..................................................................................................6 Growth and Development............................................................................7 Reproduction................................................................................................8 Seed Biology................................................................................................9 Dispersal ....................................................................................................10 Seed Germination and Establishment ........................................................11 Economic Significance..............................................................................12 Conventional Management ........................................................................13 Biological Control......................................................................................15 Response to Burning..................................................................................19 Tansy Ragwort in Northwest Montana......................................................20 PRIMARY OBJECTIVES FOR THE PROJECT.................................................................21 Objective 1: Spatial Modeling ...................................................................22 Objective 2: Population Growth Rates ......................................................25 Transition Matrix Models for Plant Populations ...........................25 Matrix Models as Tools .................................................................27 Difference Equations.....................................................................29 Population Viability Analysis (PVA)............................................29 Critiques of PVA............................................................................31 Sensitivity and Elasticity Analysis.................................................32 Objective 3: Population Growth Rate Variability......................................33 Objective 4: Role of Slashpiles..................................................................34 Objective 5: Population Dynamics with Biological Control .....................35 Summary....................................................................................................36 2. DETERMINING THE DISTRIBUTION OF TANSY RAGWORT ACROSS A RANGE OF ENVIRONMENTS.....................................37 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................37 MATERIALS AND METHODS ....................................................................................39 Site Description..........................................................................................39 Transect Selection......................................................................................40 Data Collection..........................................................................................40 Data Analysis.............................................................................................41 RESULTS .................................................................................................................44 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS-CONTINUED Data and Analysis ......................................................................................44 Model .........................................................................................................44 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................50 Management Implications..........................................................................52 3. ESTIMATING POPULATION GROWTH RATES USING DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS TO PRIORITIZE MANAGEMENT OF TANSY RAGWORT.....................................................................53 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................53 MATERIALS AND METHODS ....................................................................................56 Area Description ........................................................................................56 Transition Rates .........................................................................................59 Seed Production .........................................................................................63 Seed Bank ..................................................................................................63 Population Growth Rate.............................................................................65 Elasticity Analysis .....................................................................................66 Lefkovitch Matrix Model...........................................................................67 Statistical Analysis.....................................................................................68 RESULTS .................................................................................................................69 Transition Rates .........................................................................................69 Seed Bank..................................................................................................73 Comparing Mean and Median Transition Rates ........................................76 Population Growth Rates...........................................................................78 Elasticity Analysis.....................................................................................79 Model Validation: Population Growth Rate ..............................................81 Model Validation: Elasticity Analysis.......................................................83 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................84
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