Missouri Smart Agriculture: Exploring a Path for Agricultural Resiliency in Missouri A Solutions from the Land Facilitated Dialogue . E C I F

F October 2018 O

S C R N

A D S U

I R U O S S

I Missouri Smart Agriculture M

E H T

F Work Group O

M H A R

E I L R A H C

: S O T O H P MISSOuRI SMART AGRICulTuRE: ExPlORInG A PATH fOR AGRICulTuRAl RESIlIEnCy In MISSOuRI*

TOC: October 2018 As the nation’s - and Missouri’s - agriculture and forestry sectors prepare Missouri Agriculture and to meet the food and fiber demands of a global population expected to Climate Trends ...... 2 approach or exceed 10 billion people in 2050, crop, livestock and forestry Pathways to Enhanced Resiliency ...... 3 producers will face numerous challenges. These challenges will include, among others, global market structures, changing consumer preferences and Changing Conditions ...... 3 regulatory uncertainty. Many of these challenges will be exacerbated by the Soil Health – A Solution for impacts of shifting markets, extreme weather events and changing climatic Agriculture (and the Climate) ...... 5 conditions. Earlier this year, a collaboration of producer-leaders from Missouri’s Additional Insights ...... 5 agriculture and forestry sectors, along with business, academic, research and Consumer Expectations ...... 6 government partners, were invited to come together as the Missouri Smart Agriculture Work Group. The Work Group’s mission was to assess the Soil Solutions ...... 7 challenges that changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events Conclusion ...... 9 will pose to agriculture and forestry production in the state, examine basic adaptation opportunities, and determine the need and proper pathway for References ...... 9 constructing an adaptation strategy to ensure that Missouri farms, ranches Appendix I: Missouri Smart and forests remain resilient, productive and financially sound. Agriculture Working Group ...... 10 Over the course of two in-person meetings, multiple phone conversations and numerous electronic mail exchanges, the Work Group’s farmer, rancher Appendix II: Missouri Climate and forester volunteer-leaders gave generously of their time. They provided Trends ...... 11 valuable advice that helped chart a path for solutions that reduce and/or mitigate the impacts of not only changing climatic conditions but that of evolving market conditions driven by consumer expectations. Solutions from the land is pleased to present Missouri Smart Agriculture: Exploring a Path for Agricultural Resiliency in Missouri, and invites you to review the information contained herein as well as follow the links to the many resources that informed the Work Group’s findings. Please join us in sharing this case study with agriculture and forestry P

stakeholders. H O T O :

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Sincerely, A R L I E

R A

Ernie Shea H M

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President F

T Solutions from the Land H E

M I S S

*For the purpose of this report, O SOLUTIONS FROM THE LAND—is a non-profit entity focused on land based U R

the general terms “Agriculture” and I

solutions to global challenges. SfL identifies and facilitates the implementation U S

“Agricultural” include production of integrated policies, practices and projects at a landscape scale that will D A

result in land being sustainably managed to produce food, feed, fiber and and raising of commodity crops, N energy while enhancing biodiversity, protecting and improving critical R C

specialty crops, livestock, dairy, S

environmental resources and delivering high value solutions to combat O forests and forest products. F climate change. F I C E . Solutions from the Land 1 www.sfldialogue.net MISSOuRI SMART AGRICulTuRE: ExPlORInG A PATH fOR AGRICulTuRAl RESIlIEnCy In MISSOuRI

MISSOuRI SMART AGRICulTuRE: ExPlORInG A PATH fOR AGRICulTuRAl RESIlIEnCy In MISSOuRI A Solutions from the Land Facilitated Dialogue

Missouri Agriculture and Climate Trends producing areas. The rich deep soil, abundant rain and warm temperatures of the Bootheel section in south - Missouri has a great agricultural tradition. According to eastern Missouri have made possible a highly intensive the latest national Agricultural Statistics Service, the kind of farming. The major crops in this region are Show Me State is home to 97,300 farms, covering cotton, corn and soybeans. The area also produces a 28,500,000 of the state’s total 44,613,900 land acreage large share of the cash value of all crops in Missouri each and supporting many of the state’s top agricultural year. 3 Missouri’s varied terrain also allows the state to commodities, including soybeans, corn, cotton, cattle produce many different and unexpected crops including and calves, hay, hogs and turkeys. The total value of pecans, apples and several unique grape varieties that are 1 agricultural products sold is $9.16 billion. The state of used to make flavorful Missouri wines. Missouri boasts more than 14 million acres of forest Over the past several decades however, a noticeable land. Of those 14 million acres, private landowners own shift in climatic conditions and trends has created new 85 percent. Harvesting and processing trees into wood challenges for managing Missouri’s working lands. Mis - products gives thousands of people jobs and contributes souri’s State Climatologist has documented the following: 4 about $3 billion each year to Missouri’s economy. 2

. • Missouri’s more recent warm annual temperature E C I

F On average, Missouri farms are trend began in the mid-1980’s and most notably, since F O 1999, where 15 out of the past 20 years have been S about 293 acres and nearly all are C R above normal. Missouri winters and springs have N

family owned and operated. A

D experienced the greatest warming trend. S U

I

R Missouri is the ideal state to explore the impact • Summer and autumn minimum (nighttime) temperature U O

S trends have been notably warmer over the past few

S of climate change because the various combinations I M of climate, terrain and soil in Missouri have facilitated decades. E H T several major types of farming. In the prairies of northern • Over the past 20 years, the median last spring frost F O and west-central Missouri, a combination of grain and M date is occurring about a week earlier and the median H

A livestock is most common. In the Ozarks, forest products R first autumn frost date is occurring about a week later,

E I are prevalent and farms are usually small and quite varied L compared to long term data. R

A in the products they produce. In the southwestern H

C • Since the early 1980s, an unprecedented wet period

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O region, there are numerous dairy, fruit and vegetable-

T has evolved in Missouri with 22 out of 37 years O H P Solutions from the Land 2 www.sfldialogue.net MISSOuRI SMART AGRICulTuRE: ExPlORInG A PATH fOR AGRICulTuRAl RESIlIEnCy In MISSOuRI

experiencing above normal precipitation. All four major crops, livestock and forestry production, as well seasons have demonstrated above normal precipita - as agricultural service sectors, were joined by numerous tion. Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in technical experts and natural resource professionals heavy (>1”) and extreme (>3”) daily rainfall events from academia, extension, federal agencies and the compared to the long-term average. private sector. These stakeholders came together to • Snowfall trends have been declining. learn and discuss the latest information on what science is saying about changing climatic conditions, its impact • Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly. on agriculture and forestry in the state, and adaptation Missouri has experienced these changes. solutions and strategies that will help Missouri’s farms, ranches and forests achieve a resilient, productive, and Pathways to Enhanced Resiliency profitable future. The Missouri Smart Agriculture Work As the state’s agriculture and forestry sectors prepare to Group offered a facilitated forum for discussing and meet the food and fiber demands of a global population evaluating adaptation measures including conservation expected to approach or exceed 10 billion people systems, risk management tools, infrastructure modifica - by 2050, Missouri producers will face challenges that tions and research priorities, among others. The individuals include, among others, global competition, changing who comprised the Missouri Smart Agriculture Work market structures and regulatory uncertainty. Many Group are listed in Appendix I. of these challenges will be exacerbated by the impacts of extreme weather and changing climatic conditions. Overall, climate change could make it more difficult to grow crops, raise animals and produce trees in the same ways and places as they have been produced in the past. The impact of technology changes will further challenge Missouri producers as they attempt to adjust to the effects of a changing climate. How prepared is Missouri’s agricultural and forestry sectors to meet the changes and challenges that climate scientists are forecasting for the coming decades? What tools, practices, technologies or programs are needed that would help producers adapt, manage and respond to these risks and improve the resiliency of their operations? These are questions that a group of Missouri agricul - Changing Conditions tural and forestry leaders, along with their academic, P

The inaugural meeting of the Missouri Smart Agriculture H business, conservation and government partners were O T O

Work Group was held March 6, 2018, in Columbia, :

asked to address as part of a facilitated dialogue that C H

Missouri. The impressive turnout of Work Group A

Solutions from the land (Sfl) is conducting on climate R L I smart agriculture strategies and practices across the participants and interested individuals demonstrated E

R

a recognition of the challenges and vulnerabilities that A country. Through these dialogues, Sfl has been inviting H M

changing conditions are creating and the importance of leading farmers, ranchers and foresters to come together O F

identifying strategies and solutions to improve resiliency. T to review the impacts that increasingly erratic weather H E and changing climatic conditions have had on their A presentation by Ernie Shea provided an introduction M I S S operations and assess the degree of readiness in their to and background on Solutions from the land, the O U R states to address the challenges these changing project facilitator. Ernie noted that the farmer-led Sfl I

U S conditions will likely create. is a not-for-profit entity dedicated to advancing land D A

based solutions to global challenges and discussed ways N Operating as a self-directed Missouri Smart R C S

the nation’s agriculture and forestry sectors can be Agriculture Work Group , representatives of Missouri’s O F F I C E . Solutions from the Land 3 www.sfldialogue.net MISSOuRI SMART AGRICulTuRE: ExPlORInG A PATH fOR AGRICulTuRAl RESIlIEnCy In MISSOuRI valued and someday compensated for delivering the full • Dew points have been increasing over time. range of products and services that a growing consumer • Increases in greenhouse gases (namely CO 2) can base/society expect: safe, affordable and abundant food, reduce efficacy of pesticides. feed and fiber; clean energy; along with ecosystem Dr. Anthony lupo, Professor of Atmospheric Science services such as water filtration, flood control, enhanced in the uM College of Agriculture, food and natural biodiversity and carbon sequestration services. Resources, spoke next affirming that the information The Work Group took note that many factors outlined in Missouri Climate Trends (compiled by drive how land managers make decisions: prices; costs; the State Climatologist) is an accurate summary of markets; technology; logistics; competition; and weather. temperature, precipitation and other data. While agriculture and forestry are global industries, Work Group members were then invited to share producers generally sell into a local market. Beyond what impacts, stresses and/or challenges they have the typical barriers and issues impacting production and observed on their farms, ranches or woodlands. Partici - profitability, changing climatic conditions was introduced pants affirmed that stress was being observed in dairy as a new threat to be considered. Solutions from the production, forest systems and soil and water quality. land’s goal is to assist ag and forestry As an example, White Oak is experiencing leaders in examining the potential impacts USDA CLiMATE high mortality rates in certain areas of the based on what scientific data reveals; iden - HUbS: state, while Black and Scarlet Oak is also in tify the tools that can help manage new decline. Increasing nighttime low temps are risks; outline and advocate for measures Providing information impacting pollination. While interest in that fill gaps in research, practices, policy, and tools to decision soil health initiatives is increasing across etc.; and extend the conversation around makers to build resilience the state, the added level of management adaptation practices and other measures to climate variability. needed for these kinds of practices that mitigate impacts. creates challenges for farmer adoption. Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of the Midwest Climate Work Group members were also asked to share Hub, gave a presentation on Climate Changes Impacting examples of initiatives, research activities and practices Missouri Agriculture. Climate data is showing: that exemplify measures capable of increasing resiliency, • Annual precipitation has been increasing in the improving sustainability and conserving natural resources. 1895-2016 time period across much of the Midwest, Work Group members provided examples of sustainability including Missouri, with the number of extreme actions and solution pathways that they were taking, precipitation (greater than 2 inches) events increasing including: – especially in the spring and fall timeframes. These • Corn-corn rotations using no-till with cover crops changes in precipitation impact soil erosion and nutri - are reported to sequester carbon nearing two ent loss potential and necessitate mitigation measures. meters in soil depth. • While the average temperature in Missouri has only • Cotton Incorporated’s global cotton supply sustain ability slightly increased over the same period, the observed project identified areas to reduce water and energy average of overnight low temperature has increased inputs and found that the agricultural production dramatically. These warmer nights increase human / of cotton is the least greenhouse gas intensive part livestock stress and the need for additional cooling of the supply chain, sequester carbon in the fiber measures. Plant stress has also been observed. In addi - and soil. tion, the “frost-free” season length has been growing, thus increasing the length of growing season. The • Smithfield foods is working with Roeslein Alternative reduction of very cold nights and change in frost-free Energy to cover approximately 90 hog manure lagoons season could increase pressures from pests, diseases to capture and upgrade methane for export to the and invasive species and create “false springs” where higher value transportation market. fruit crops are lost due to frost damage during prema - • Successional planning is important to maintaining good ture blooming. practices.

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• Rotational grazing is an important and During the dialogue, Climate Central Participants recognized that valued practice to improve soil health observed significant interest in solutions government mandates were and forage quality. During subsequent that improve soil health. Practices such not the only way to drive discussions, the Work Group recog - as cover cropping, no-till farming, change and that the next nized that consumers are looking for improved nutrient management, conser - generation of consumers leadership in the areas of sustainability, vation rotations, and rotational grazing could be even more climate response and environmental were identified as not only measures demanding for stewardship. It was also noted that that reduce emissions, but also contribute information and changes in corporations are making sustainability to and support farmers’ productivity land management. and climate action commitments and and profitability goals. A key point many are looking to the producers of affirmed by the Work Group was that raw materials to adjust their production systems farmers are more likely to talk about these practices to meet a new and growing list of “private sector” with a focus on increasing organic matter, water holding standards. capacity and yields; and not in the context of climate The Work Group as a whole found value in bringing change. the ag, forestry and livestock sectors together to examine Armed with a new appreciation of the challenges of pathways and strategies for scaling up the delivery of talking about climate change in Missouri, Climate Central multiple solutions from the land – food, feed, fiber, energy committed to develop a report focused on soil heath and ecosystems services. They expressed a desire to solutions and share their report findings at the next learn more about supply chain sustainability standards meeting of the Missouri Smart Agriculture Work Group. that are being established by food and beverage corpora - tions (the buyers of agricultural products). They also Additional insights recognized that this dialogue could grow into a forum for improving policy maker and general public under - Work Group members reconvened on June 28 in Columbia, standing of and support for the benefits and economic Missouri, to: review the findings and observations from contributions that agriculture provides to the state. the March 6 meeting; examine agribusiness commitments to implement significant sustainability measures through - out their entire supply chain; discuss Climate Central’s draft report on Soil Health Solutions; and explore future opportunities for the Work Group going forward. As identified in early discussions, Work Group members expressed interest in adaptation solutions through P

improvements in soil health across the state. Benefits of H O T

improving soil health include low-carbon products, more O :

C

resilient operations, and carbon sequestration services H A R

that could be valued throughout the supply chain. L I Soil Health – A Solution for E

R

Solutions from the land shared information on the A Agriculture (and the Climate) H M

three pillars of climate smart agriculture [1) sustainably O F

Project partner, Climate Central, was invited to participate increasing agricultural productivity and livelihoods; T H E

in the dialogue to help document Missouri climate 2) enhancing adaptive capacity and improving resilience; M I S trends, including their impacts on the state’s agriculture and 3) delivering ecosystem services, sequestering S O U and silviculture industries, and identify potential carbon, and reducing and/or avoiding greenhouse gas R I

U opportunities for Missouri farmers, ranchers and emissions] and the various solution pathways that S D A

forest land owners to take actions that improve address the three pillars while also satisfying the soil N R resilience and/or incomes, while also reducing C health focus favored by the Work Group. S

O emission of greenhouse gases. F The three pillars of climate smart agriculture are F I C E

illustrated on the next page: .

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Consumer Expectations Eric Olson, with Businesses for Social Responsibility, highlighted and discussed the sustainability goals of The Work Group discussion then shifted to the increas - several companies , and discussed how global and ing consumer and retailer demand for sustainability national businesses are mobilizing to achieve desired outcomes. While corporations are making sustainability outcomes, citing the transition to low-carbon products commitments such as reducing their carbon footprints, as an example. These companies are driven by economic those from which the corporations’ products are concerns and target different natural resource areas sourced — such as the farmers who produce commodity while engaging stakeholders at various levels of the crops — will be expected to participate in delivering supply chain. sustainability solutions. Representatives of the corporate It was noted that seven of the world’s top ten food sector were invited to share their reasons for developing companies have established science-based greenhouse and implementing corporate sustainability standards. gas emission reduction targets. Other commitments Brent Boydston, with Monsanto (now Bayer), shared include investing in renewable energy, reducing waste, how his company is working to address nine of the conserving water, halting deforestation and other seventeen un Sustainable Development Goals and has measures that fit within the solution sets supported set a goal to be carbon neutral by 2021. To get there, by climate smart agriculture. operational changes will be implemented internally and Global companies known to Missouri famers that have through the supply chain including recycling of packaging, established bold sustainability goals include: efficiency measures and powering operations with renewable forms of energy. Bayer will also work with • Anheuser-Busch (ABInBev): In April 2018, Anheuser- farmers to implement practices that sequester carbon Busch launched its u.S. 2025 Sustainability Goals. in the soil, plant cover crops and better manage nutrients. These include the goal that 100 percent of purchased Bayer plans to monitor these voluntary practices and electricity will come from renewable sources, and 5 verify the carbon reductions. Production practice CO 2 emissions across the value chain will be reduced mandates will be avoided, but they could become an by 25 percent. 100 percent of facilities will be engaged option if societal goals are not being achieved. in water efficiency efforts. As 98 percent of ingredient s

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are u.S. grown, Anheuser-Busch intends to engage all Work Group members pointed out that economics of its direct farmers to ensure that these producers and financial opportunities would be the primary drivers are highly skilled, connected and financially empowered. 6 of changes in the way land is managed. Participants • Smithfield foods: Smithfield is working to reduce acknowledged the value of getting agriculture and greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent by 2025 consumers together to analyze the concerns and throughout its entire supply chain. By 2020, Smithfield expectations of consumers and share the innovation is working to reduce energy use by 5 percent, water and technology underpinnings of agriculture and food use by 10 percent and solid waste by 10 percent. By production today. Consensus was reached that additional the end of 2018, Smithfield will work with producers dialogue built on what had transpired over the course to document that 75 percent of purchased grain is of the first two meetings of the Work Group would grown with efficient fertilizer management and soil be helpful. health practices. 7 Work Group participants were invited to contribute • Kellogg’s: Kellogg’s has pledged to support 500,000 via survey, to determine the future role and next steps farmers focusing on climate-smart agriculture princi - for the Work Group. Several options were presented: ples to improve production and livelihoods. By 2050, 1) The Work Group could serve as a platform for an Kellogg’s will reduce greenhouse gas emissions across organized multi-stakeholder dialogue involving responsi - its operations by 65 percent and help direct suppliers ble agriculture, environmental and business leaders; of ingredients reduce greenhouse gases by 50 percent. 2) The Work Group could guide the development of furthermore, responsible sourcing of 10 priority an adaptive management strategy and action plan for ingredients will be monitored through supplier and Missouri agriculture; or 3) The Work Group could more farm-level audits. 8 narrowly focus on soil health as a pathway for enhancing agricultural sustainability, improving resilience, delivering Based on the interest expressed in the March 6 ecosystem services, sequestering carbon, and reducing meeting on the role of soil health as an adaptive manage - and/or avoiding greenhouse gas emissions in Missouri. ment strategy, Climate Central reported on their A plurality of respondents to the survey expressed progress in producing a report on soil-based solutions interest in a multi-stakeholder dialogue platform, that can improve resiliency of operations, reduce erosion although all three options received a favorable response. and sequester carbon in the soil. The ultimately, it will be up to the Work authors expressed hope that their Will agriculture drive the Group members to find consensus on a report will also help readers develop a discussion on sustainability, path forward. deeper understanding of local climate soil health and adaptation, trends data and the impacts that or will agriculture be shaped Throughout the two Work Group extreme weather and shifting climate by others’ agendas? meetings, the political influences and conditions may have on agriculture and questions surrounding climate change livestock production in the state. Climate Central were never far away. However, it was made clear provided an overview of their preliminary draft report throughout the discussions that decisions and actions and invited feedback from the Work Group members. would be based on scientific data and local observations. Constructive comments and suggestions were offered The Work Group managed to avoid any protracted de - by members of the Work Group and were appreciated bate on the scientific evidence of climate change; consen - by the authors. sus was reached that whatever the cause, changing climatic conditions were being observed and felt in Mis - near the end of the meeting, two questions were souri and that ongoing efforts to adapt and improve re - put before the Work Group: Will agriculture drive the siliency would be a wise strategy to pursue. discussion on sustainability, soil health and adaptation, or will agriculture be shaped by others’ agendas? If agri - culture is going to be in the driver’s seat, is the Missouri Soil Solutions Smart Ag Work Group a platform for ongoing discussion In July, Climate Central released their report, SOIL SOLU - and leadership on these issues? TIONS: Climate-Smart Farming in the Show Me State .

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The report examines trends in Missouri temperature in Missouri is significant.” and precipitation data and estimates how much carbon • for ranchers, the greatest carbon sequestration could be stored in Missouri soil each year through the potential comes from modified grazing practices, like use of different conservation farming practices. The rotational grazing. Work Group provided input that helped shape the • for farmers, the use of cover crops demonstrates the understanding of the utilization of conservation practices greatest potential savings. and of the soil heath solution pathway and how soil health can provide benefits for farmers and the environment. • The estimated total annual carbon storage potential for the state as a whole, with aggressive adoption of The report found that “conservation farming practices conservation practices, is equivalent to more than help build healthy, resilient soil, and give farmers a tool twice the annual total greenhouse gas emissions of to help manage the more-intense weather extremes Columbia, home to the state’s flagship land-grant that occur more frequently with our changing climate. university. These climate-smart farming methods also aid in carbon sequestration, removing some of the excess carbon • At the county level, new Madrid shows the highest dioxide from the atmosphere and trapping the potential for carbon savings. The county is in the soil-enriching carbon in the ground.” 9 southeast “Bootheel” region. five counties with the The report also found that “the potential to save highest-potential carbon savings are in or adjacent to carbon by applying individual conservation practices the Bootheel. . Y T I S R E V I N U

E T A T S

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Y S E T R U O C

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Some farmers and ranchers in Group collectively recognized that Missouri are already putting consumers are generally supportive conservation measures into of the transition to a low-carbon practice and offsetting or seques - economy. But will this be enough tering emissions. Solutions from either? the land issued a statement Agriculture is recognized as a recognizing the contributions of contributor to greenhouse gas the Climate Central report towards emissions that many scientists say expanding the discussion around contribute to climate change. 11 10 soil heath and operational resiliency. However, agriculture offers nearly half the solution opportunity for Conclusion global climate goals. 12 This is the untold story of climate smart agri - Many agronomists say that global culture, and the Missouri Smart population growth and food Missouri farmers and ranchers are Agriculture Work Group can be a production methods have stressed demonstrating that conservation platform for ongoing dialogue and and degraded our soil. farmers and practices are providing a win-win-win leadership on the food, feed, fiber, ranchers have responded by chang - outcome — improving soil health, energy and ecosystems services ing the way they farm, adding cover financial health, and the overall health and solutions that can be delivered crops, changing up crop rotations of the environment. from the land. and better managing nutrients and pasturelands. But will this be enough? Solutions from the land thanks the members of the Missouri Smart Agriculture Work One Work Group producer-leader recommended Group for their insight and leadership in engaging their that agriculture become even more customer-focused. peers in conversations about ways to sustainably inten - He highlighted the need to pay attention to how food, sify production, improve resiliency and deliver ecosystem feed and fiber are produced and said that it would be services, by sequestering carbon and reducing and/or foolish to ignore what customers are seeking. The Work avoiding greenhouse gas emissions.

References 1. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=MISSOURI 2. Missouri forest facts - Missouri Department of Conservation

3. W. Decker and P. Guinan, Climate of Missouri, Missouri Climate Center P H O T

4. P. Guinan, Missouri Climate Trends , Missouri Climate Center O :

C H

5. https://monsanto.com/app/uploads/2017/12/Sustainability_2017.pdf A R L I

6. https://www.anheuser-busch.com/newsroom/20071/04/anheuser-busch-announces-u-s--2025-sustainabilitygoals.html E

R A

7. https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/integrated-report/2017/introduction H M

O

8. http://crreport.kelloggcompany.com/download/Kellogg-Global-Sustainability-Commitments.png F

T H

9. http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/July2018_SoilSolutions_Missouri.pdf E

M I S

10. Sfl Commends Report Outlining Soil Conservation Practices in Missouri that Boost Productivity, Resilience S O and Carbon Sequestration U R I

U

11. Inventory of u.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2016 (published April 2018), See Chapter 5, Agriculture S D A

12. How Does Agriculture Change Our Climate? ; Published by the Institute on the Environment at the university N R C

of Minnesota S

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Appendix i MISSOuRI SMART AGRICulTuRE WORKInG GROuP

PRODUCER/VALUE CHAin Lloyd Gunter John Murphy PARTnER-LEADERS Conway, MO Kirksville, MO Lynn barnickol Dairy producer and agri-tourism with Wildlife and Ecological Services Manager- Wardsville, MO pumpkin patch and corn maze; Missouri Roeslein Alternative Energy; Developer Actually Wood llC (forestry Consult - Dairy Association (past President); Mid - of renewable energy production facilities, ant); Executive Director of the Missouri west Dairy Association Board Member native feedstocks, and cover crops Consulting foresters Association Chuck Hart Vince Roberts Ryan britt Mountain Grove, MO Dearborn, MO Clifton Hill, MO Grape producer Owner of Roberts Ag Services (retail 5th generation corn, soybeans, wheat bill Kessler agricultural products and services) and cattle producer; President, Missouri Mexico, MO Paul Rohde Association of Soil & Water Conservation Pork, beef, corn, milo, soybeans and St. louis, MO Districts Board of Directors; President, wheat producer; national Pork Producers Vice President, Midwest Region for Randolph County farm Bureau Council Board of Directors; national Waterways Council, Inc.; upper Glen Cope Pork Board; Missouri Pork Association Mississippi Waterways Association Aurora, MO Board of Directors; Missouri Cattlemen’s Board Member; Advisory Board for fourth-generation beef producer; Association the Audubon Center at Riverlands Missouri Beef Industry Council (past brian Lehman Migratory Bird Sanctuary Chairman); Missouri Beef Checkoff; Versailles, MO Rudi Roeslein Missouri Agricultural leaders of Corn, soybeans, wheat and beef producer; St. louis, MO Tomorrow Missouri Corn Merchandising Council Owner of Roeslein Alternative Energy Tom Coudron Board of Directors (developer of renewable energy Columbia, MO President, Morgan County farm Bureau; production facilities); Prairie land and Honeybee producer; President, Morgan County Soil and Water Conser - biodiversity restoration Missouri farmers union vation District Board Member ACADEMiC AnD GOVERnMEnT Steve Droke brian Martin PARTnERS Hornersville, MO Centralia, MO fourth-generation cotton and water - Soybean, corn, small grains and cattle Rob Kallenbach - uM College of melon producer; Cotton Incorporated producer; Crop consultant; Missouri Agriculture, food and natural Resources, Board of Directors; national Cotton Soybean yield Contest District Winner; Assistant Dean Council Delegate; Cotton Producers of Soil Health Partnership Cooperator Alan Freeman - Missouri Dept. of Missouri (past President); former MOfB Mark McCarty Agriculture, Agriculture Stewardship yf&R Chairman Jefferson City, MO and Development Steve Fairchild Certification and Education Manager, Kurt boeckmann - Missouri Dept. of Columbia, MO Missouri forest Products Association; natural Resources, Agricultural liaison Boy Scouts of America Volunteer Director of Communications for MfA, Krishna Poudel - Missouri Dept. of Incorporated (farm supply and marketing Ethan Miller natural Resources, Water Protection cooperative) Columbia, MO Program fourth-generation sorghum, wheat, Scott Gardner brian Schweiss - Missouri Dept. of soybeans, cattle, sheep producer; District Chillicothe, MO Conservation, forestry Division Vice President, Marketing and Sales, Manager for the Boone County Soil and Water Conservation District; Missouri fCS financial Services (rural and SUPPORT STAFF/FACiLiTATiOn agriculture financing) Sheep and Goat Conference Committee; leadership Sorghum Class III Ernie Shea – Project facilitator brent bailey – Project Manager

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Appendix ii MISSOuRI ClIMATE CEnTER unIVERSITy Of MISSOuRI 113 WATERS HAll COluMBIA, MISSOuRI 65211

DR. WAynE DECKER, PROfESSOR EMERITuS, unIVERSITy Of MISSOuRI DR. PATRICK GuInAn, ExTEnSIOn/STATE ClIMATOlOGIST, unIVERSITy Of MISSOuRI Missouri Climate Trends

• Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature • Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have trend began in the mid 1980’s and most notably, witnessed more above normal precipitation years in since 1998, where 15 out of the past 20 years (75%) Missouri; most notably in winter where 21 out of have been above normal; 2012 was the warmest the past 36 winters (58%) recorded above normal year on record. precipitation. Snowfall trends have been declining. • Seasonally, Missouri winters and springs have • Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed experienced the greatest warming trend; 19 out of an above normal trend in heavy (>1”) and extreme the past 28 winters (68%) and 16 out of the past (>3”) daily precipitation events compared to the 20 springs (80%) have been above normal. long-term average. • The median last spring frost date in Missouri is • Recent historical trends for Missouri indicated an occurring about a week earlier over the past unprecedented multi-decadal wet period beginning 20 years compared to the long-term average. in the early 1980’s. Conversely, there have been • Summer and autumn minimum temperature trends multi-decadal dry periods, i.e. 1950’s and 1960’s. have been notably warmer over the past few • Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly decades whereas maximum temperature trends and there are numerous occasions, where Missouri have been cooling. transitioned from one extreme to another in a short • The median first fall frost date in Missouri is period of time. occurring about a week later over the past • The 2012 drought resulted in numerous impacts, 20 years compared to the long-term average. affecting many sectors in Missouri. However, it was a • Dew point temperatures have trended above short-lived drought when compared to other historic normal over the past few decades. Since 1981, droughts, i.e. 1952-56. An important question we all 68% of the years have had above normal dew need to consider is how prepared are we when the points for the Jun-Aug period. next 1950’s drought affects the Show Me State. • Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1985, an For more information on these findings, please contact: unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Dr. Patrick Guinan, Extension/State Climatologist Since 1981, 22 out of 37 years (60%) have had University of Missouri above normal precipitation. 302 ABnR Columbia, MO 65211

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