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Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Region of West Bengal

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Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Region of West Bengal Climate Change Policy Paper II Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Region of West Bengal Sugata Hazra n o i t c u d The 7516 km long coastline of India and associated coastal zones are extremely vulnerable to climate change induced o fast and slow onset disasters. Every year, loss of life and r property in the coastal areas are increasing due to high t intensity cyclones, floods, change in rainfall pattern, cloud n burst, saline water ingression and coastal erosion due to I accelerated sea level rise. In the year 2009, the severe cyclone 'Aila' hit the State of West Bengal with 120km/hr wind speed and around 2m high storm surge, devastating extensive areas of coastal Sundarban killing people and flooding agriculture fields by saline water. Later, we were hit by drought though we had a forecast from official agencies of healthy and timely monsoon. Due to concentrated rainfall during post monsoon months (which keeps the statistics of yearly average rainfall close to 'normal') we had extensive floods, in Andhra, Goa, Karnataka and in parts of West Bengal and Assam. Additionally, the increased population pressure and economic activity in coastal zones are magnifying the extent of coastal disasters. I I An estimate suggests that in India, nearly 2000 lives are lost r every year due to floods, cyclone and heavy rain. However, e p few coastal states in India have an integrated coastal zone a P management plan, although none of those that do, have so y far been able to link it with a disaster management plan or c i the national action plan on climate change. The attitude so far l o has been and still is, to focus more on reactive relief and post- P disaster activity than on more responsive disaster e g preparedness or risk management. Institutionally and n otherwise we are not yet ready to accept that the climate is a h changing, and changing faster than anticipated. We are often C confused between 'short term' climate variability (e.g.rate of e t retreat of Gangotri has been slower for the last three years!) a m and long term changes in the climate of the world. It is high i l time to adopt a more scientific method of risk assessment C and evaluation and co ordinate efforts towards risk reduction and disaster preparedness anticipated due to climate 1 Coastal Region change, particularly for coastal zones. In India, we still consider reacting to 'rapid onset' natural hazards as the primary, if not the only management objective. However, the potential threats of 'slow onset' disasters like climate change, sea level rise, coastal erosion/submergence and water quality degradation remain largely unattended to. Global warming and sea level rise pose a serious threat to the existence of the small islands and island states throughout the world including the Sundarban island system of West Bengal. Though the absolute Sea level rise globally over the last century has been little over 20cm, locally the relative rate of rise is found to be several times more due to deltaic subsidence and siltation. With just a slight rise in sea level, off-island migration of environmental refugees from Sundarban island system of India and Bangladesh may be anticipated. A comprehensive action plan for climate change in India would be incomplete without the inclusion of a definite mission addressing the vulnerable coastal zone, which includes of West Bengal, Orissa, Andamans, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshwadeep, Gujarat and others. The national action plan on climate change can definitely be improved if we consider rate of sea level rise relative to land differently for different coastal states rather than relying on a 'national average' of 1.06-1.75mm/yr1 which fails to address the ground realities of subsiding deltas like Sundarban. In terms of an operational policy framework, a new draft coastal management zone notification was issued by the Government of India (S.O. 1070(E) ,1.5.2008) with an aim to re-designate the coastal zone and demarcate a new 'set back line' as per vulnerability due to sea level rise and coastal erosion. However, this was later withdrawn mostly due to resistance from different quarters and also because it did not indicate scientifically viable methodology for vulnerability assessment related to sea level rise and for demarcating a set back line by the local authorities. Further, the sea level trend proposed was taken as the 'global average' as suggested by IPCC, while the damage, actually taking place along the coast depends upon 'local' factors that controls the 'relative sea level' of the region. Thus , even at the end of 2010, we still do not have an operational policy framework for integrated coastal zone management, which takes into account the problem of climate change , sea level rise, habitat loss or rehabilitation policies for 'environmental refugees' from coastal zones. Government of India formally 2 Tide Line’ or elaborating a methodology to delineate the “Hazard Line” or setback line necessary for coastal adaptation to , Coastal Region e t a m i l c d Temperature n a Average Potential Temperature at surface level (1000 hP a) in the month April r 2001 - 2007 302.4 e 302.3 ) h K ( t e 302.2 r u t a a r 302.1 e p m 302 e e T l a 301.9 i t n w e t 301.8 o P 301.7 g 301.6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 n i y = 0.1082x + 85.14, R2 = 0.973 g n YEARLY V ARIATION OF SURFACE AIR TEM PERATURE ANOM ALY OV ER BAY OF BENGAL a h Y 1 L A C M 0.5 O N A E 0 R U T A -0.5 R E P M -1 E T -1.5 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 YEAR ACTUAL OBSERVATION FITTED RESULT 4 29.5 E TREND MI R 29 U T 28.5 A R E 28 P NIMUM T M 27.5 E T 27 26.5 EMPERA Fig 2. surface (b) of 2001Sundarban An overall trend of atmospheric warming is evident over the land (a) and sea TURE 2002 The Indian Ocean has2003 shown higher than average surface warming, especially during the last five decades 2004 observed rise in northern p per year (fig 2). 2005 y =0.0536 x-79.596 terrestrial region in the maximum and minimum temperature R 2006 2 records collected from the 'sand head' in the Sund 5 = 0.0303 A over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1985-2000 the accelerated similar rising trend is also observed in the adjoining 2009 from the MODIS satellite data continues, the 2007 temperature in this area is expected to rise by more than 1 Minimum 2008 by 2050 and is likely to cross the threshold of 2 Linear (Minimum) imp 500 system of Sundarban islands, 2009 acting both the open coast art of Bay of Bengal is @ .019 450 erosion, cyclone and coast trend, 400 Rainfall 350 .) s 300 as observed m (m ll 250 fa in a R200 150 2,3,4 100 Post Monsoon Rain- for the period 2006- . al area as well as the estuarine The 50 al flooding. 0 0 C by rising rate of coast 1936 arban. If 1937 Alipore (1936-1970) 1938 0 y = -0.8008x + 188.87 1939 C rise by 2100 1940 R 2 1941 = 0.0068 1942 1943 0 1944 C 1945 1946 1947 al 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 Y 1954 ears 1955 1956 I I 5 1957 r e 1958 p 1959 a 1960 P 1961 y c 1962 li 1963 o 1964 P 1965 e 1966 g n 1967 a 1968 h 1969 C 1970 te a m li C Rainfall (mms.) 1 6 2 3 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1971 Fig 3.ChangeinthePostMonsoonRainfallpatternoverW 1972 1973 1974 1975 decline) suggestingashiftofhighrainfallmonths(Fig 3). to thatof1935-1970period(whichactuallyshows amarginal significantly duringthetimewindowof1970-2005,comp The postMonsoonrainfallhoweverhasincreased increase intot years. in themonsoonandpostrainfalloverlast10 The presentanalysisshowsthatthereisamarginalincrease values aremorethantheyearlyaverage. window of1990-2000,boththehigherandlowerrainfall from IndianMeteorologicalDep 2000mm andfallsto1300mmduringthelowperi 1625mm. Howeverinhighrainfallyearsitgoesupto p varies between75%and86%.Decadalvariationofrainfall Intensive rainfalloccursduringthemonsoon.Humidity 1976 attern overSundarbanhasbeenstudiedusingthedat 1977 1978 P 1979 o The annualaveragerainfalloftheSundarbanis s t 1980 M 1981 o 1982 n s al rainfallcanbenoticedwithinthistimeframe. 1983 o o 1984 n 1985 R a i n 6 1986 f Y 1987 a e l a l r s 1988 - 1989 A l y i p 1990 = o 3 R . r 9 1991 2 e 3 = 4 0 artment. Withinthetime 5 1992 ( . 1 1 x 1 9 1993 + 9 7 9 1 3 1994 1 3 - . 1 2 1995 4 0 est BengalCoast A 1996 0 4 trendofmarginal ) 1997 Coast 1998 1999 2000 2001 al 2002 Region ared ods. 2003 a 2004 Relation of Aman Yield with Total Annual Rainfall - Ramnagar I Block, Purba Medinipur 3000 y = -0.7982x + 3144.8 2 2500 R = 0.3721 ) e r a t 2000 c e h / . 1500 s g k ( d 1000 l e i Y 500 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Rainfall (mms.) Relation of Aman Yield with Post Monsoon Rainfall- Ramnagar I Block, Purba Medinipur 3000 ) 2500 e y = -1.1534x + 2020.4 r a 2 t R = 0.2349 c 2000 e h / . s 1500 g k ( d 1000 l e i Y 500 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Rainfall (mms.) Scatter Diagram showing the relation between Production of Aman Paddy and Post Monsoon Rainfall in S.
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