December /2016

CNI Indicators • ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 6 • Number 4 • December 2016

CNI-Ibope survey GOVERNMENT EVALUATION

December /2016

CNI Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC

CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA

P474g

National Confederation of Industry CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation - (December 2016). – Brasília: CNI, 2016. 10 p. ISBN 2317-7012

1. Evaluation of the government. 2. Government of Brazil. 3. Survey research

CDU: 354 (049.5)

CNI National Confederation of Industry - Brazil Customer Service – SAC Setor Bancário Norte Tels.: +55 61 3317-9989 / 3317-9992 Quadra 1 – Bloco C [email protected] Edifício Roberto Simonsen 70040-903 – Brasília – DF Tel.: +55 61 3317- 9000 Fax: +55 61 3317- 9994 http://www.cni.org.br Pesquisa CNI-Ibope - Avaliação do Governo ISSN 2317-7012 • Ano 6 • Número 4 • dezembro de 2016

Temer Administration Review

The percentage of people who have come to 26%, fluctuating within the survey’s margin of no decision about the Temer government has error. The same goes for those who rate the started to fall. In the September survey, 12% of government as excellent or good: down from respondents neither wanted nor were able to 14% to 13%. assess the government, with 17% feeling the same about the president’s way of governing. In Prospects for the remainder of the Temer December, these percentages are down to 6% administration are more pessimistic. The and 10% respectively. proportion of respondents who believe that the remainder of the government will be excellent This reduced level of indecision has been or good dropped from 24% to 18%, while the accompanied by dissatisfaction with the percentage that believes it will be bad or terrible government. Those who rated the government as rose from 38% to 43%. bad or terrible rose from 39% to 46%, while the percentage that disapproves of president Temer’s President Temer’s popularity has declined more way of governing increased from 55% to 64%. strongly among respondents with a college degree and high household income. For these It is worth highlighting that the percentages groups of respondents, apart from a reduction of those who approve of the president’s way in the number of undecided people, there has of governing remained virtually unchanged. also been a significant fall in those who rate the The figure has fallen slightly from 28% to government as excellent or good.

Evaluation of the Michel Temer administration Percentage of responses (%)

Bad/Terrible Excellent/Good

Dec/16 46% 13% Dec/16 Sep/16 39% 14% Sep/16 Jun/16 39% 13% Jun/16

Dec/16 35% 6% Dec/16 Sep/16 34% 12% Sep/16 Jun/16 36% 13% Jun/16

Regular Doesn’t know/ Didn’t answer

Summary • Evaluation of the government Page 6 • Approval of the government by area Page 7 • Perception of news items about the government Page 8 • Evaluation of the government: from José Sarney to Michel Temer Page 9 • Results table Page 10

5 CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 6 • Number 4 • December 2016

GOVERNMENT EVALUATION Highlights by respondent profile Evaluation of the Michel Temer administration Percentage of responses (%) Popularity falls more among

80 high-income respondents Among respondents whose household income is more than five times the minimum 60 wage, the percentage of those who rate the government as bad or terrible grew by 46 40 16 percentage points in the September- 39 39 December period. This increase can be 36 35 34 explained both by the decline in the number 20 of undecided people and by the reduction in those who rate the government as excellent 13 14 13 13 12 6 or good. In September, this was the group 0 Excellent/Good Fair Bad/Terrible Doesn´t know/ that gave the government its highest rating, Didn´t answer with the greatest proportion of excellent or good (20%) and the lowest proportion of bad Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 or terrible (33%) among all income levels. In December, these proportions were 13% and Approval of the way of governing 49% respectively, which are similar to those Percentage of responses (%) for other income levels. 80 Dissatisfaction increases most among

60 64 respondents with higher education 55 53 Among respondents with a college degree, the 40 proportion of those who rate the president and his administration positively has also 31 dropped. The percentages of those rating the 28 26 20 government as excellent or good fell from 16 17 18% in September to 13% in December. In 10 September, college educated people were the 0 Approves Disapproves Doesn’t know/ ones who gave the highest approval rating Didn’t answer to president Temer’s way of governing (33%) Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 among all education groups. In December, however, this percentage fell to 28%, a figure similar to that observed in the other groups. Confidence in President Michel Temer Percentage of responses (%) Satisfaction with president Temer 80 remains highest in the South region 72 66 68 While residents in the South region are also 60 more dissatisfied, they continue to give the Temer administration its highest rating. At 40 the other extreme, residents in the Northeast region give it its lowest rating. Twenty 27 26 percent of the residents in the South region 20 23 of the country rate the Temer government as excellent or good, with this percentage 7 6 5 0 falling to 9% in the Northeast region. The Has confidence in Doesn’t have Doesn’t know/ president’s way of governing is approved by confidence in Didn’t answer 37% of respondents in the South region and Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 by 20% in the Northeast region. 6 Comparison with the Dilma administration Perspectives for the remainder Percentage of responses (%) of the Temer administration Percentage of responses (%) The percentage that believes that the In the Northeast region, 51% remainder of the Temer administration will of respondents consider the be excellent or good is 5 percentage points Temer administration to be higher than that of those who rate the worse than Dilma’s. government as excellent or good. 70 70

60 60

50 50

40 44 40 42 43 38 38 35 30 34 30 32 31 30 32 20 24 25 20 24 24 23 21 18 10 10 8 7 9 8 7 0 3 0 Better The same Worse Doesn’t know/ Excellent/Good Fair Bad/Terrible Doesn´t know/ Didn’t answer Didn´t answer Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16

Approval of the government by area

The decline in the government’s approval ratings is Nevertheless, these two areas, along with health, continue also reflected in the ratings by area. Of the nine areas to be the three areas with the worst ratings. Eighty percent considered in the survey, only two – taxes and interest of respondents disapprove of the government’s health rates – did not experience a significant growth (above and tax actions and policies, while 79% disapprove of the margin of error) in the percentage of disapproval. those related to interest rates.

Perception of the Temer government by area Percentage of responses (%) December 2016

Environment 28 61 11

Fighting hunger and poverty 26 70 5

Education 26 71 3

Fighting inflation 25 70 6

Fighting unemployment 4 20 76 Approves Public security 20 76 4 Disapproves

Health care 17 80 3 Doesn´t know Didn´t answer Interest rates 14 79 7

Taxes 14 80 6

0 20 40 60 80 100

7 CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 6 • Number 4 • December 2016

Perception of news items about the government

Compared with September, the percentage of Perception of news items about the government those who believe that recent news items have been more unfavorable to the government News items recalled by the population increased from 43% to 47%, while the percentage Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PEC) 241, which imposes a ceiling on public 7 that believes them to have been more favorable expenditure for the next 20 years edged down from 18% to 13%. 5 Demonstrations against corruption 5 Demonstrations against PEC 241 News items about corruption are once again 4 Demonstrations in Brazil (not specified) uppermost in the population’s memory. Among the respondents, 17% spontaneously mentioned 4 Demonstrations against the Temer administration at least one news item on this subject. In Lava Jato (Car Wash) operation / Investigation into corruption at Petrobras / 4 September, this percentage did not reach 5%. Petrolão scandal Considering the subject of corruption, the 4 Government corruption (not specified) most commonly mentioned items were the 3 Resignation of minister Geddel Vieira Lima after revelations of influence peddling demonstrations against corruption, recalled by Resignation of minister Marcelo Calero after pressure from president Temer and 5% of respondents, the Lava Jato operation (4%), 3 former minister Geddel Vieira Lima and unspecified government corruption (4%). Influence peddling scandal involving president Temer and former minister Geddel 2 Vieira Lima The measures and reforms announced by Vote on the anti-corruption package / proposed electoral campaign slush-fund the government remain in the news and in 2 amnesty causes controversy respondents’ minds. In September, 17% of 2 Welfare reform respondents said they recalled at least one news item about this topic. In December, this High school reform proposal / Government announces changes it intends to make to 2 percentage is 15%. Proposed Constitutional high school curricula Amendment (PEC) 241, which imposes a ceiling 2 Other news items about president Michel Temer’s administration on public spending, has dominated the news: 1 Police clampdown on demonstrations against the Temer administration 7% mentioned news items about PEC 241 and Adjustments to public accounts under Temer’s administration/ Limits imposed on 4% mentioned news items about protests and 1 spending demonstrations against PEC 241. 1 Political crisis (not specified) Popular demonstrations and protests also remain 1 Economic crisis (not specified) a hot topic. These were recalled by 14% of 1 Rising unemployment respondents in September and now, in December, 1 Inflation/ Price increases the figure increased to 15%. Demonstrations against corruption and against PEC 241 are the 1 The Senate’s vote on the bill to punish abuse of power by judges and prosecutors most remembered. 1 Labor reform Federal Supreme Court (STF) legalizes abortions carried out in the first three Perception of news about the government 1 months of pregnancy Percentage of responses (%) 1 Cuts made to the Bolsa Família (Family Grant) Program December 2016 1 The president’s presence at the wake for the Chapecoense team Impeachment of Michel Temer / PSOL files a motion to impeach Michel Temer in the 13 1 House of Representatives 1 Other news items about politics 14 None 43 Doesn’t know / Didn’t answer 47 25

More favorable Neither favorable nor unfavorable More unfavorable

8 Evaluation of the government: from José Sarney to Michel Temer

Percentage of respondents who consider the government excellent or good (%)

Temer SarneyCollor Itamar Fernando Henrique Lula Dilma 100 11221 2

0 Mar Feb Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Dec 1986 1990 1992 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2016

Percentage of respondents who consider the government bad or terrible (%)

Temer SarneyCollor Itamar Fernando Henrique Lula Dilma 100 11221 2

0 Mar Feb Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Dec 1986 1990 1992 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2016

9 CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 6 • Number 4 • December 2016

RESULTS TABLE

Percentage of responses (%) Dec/16 Percentage of responses (%) Dec/16 Evaluation of the government The environment Excellent / Good 13 Approves 28 Fair 35 Disapproves 61 Bad / Terrible 46 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 11 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 6 Health care Perspectives for the remainder of the Temer administration Approves 17 Excellent / Good 18 Disapproves 80 Fair 32 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 3 Bad / Terrible 43 Education Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 7 Approves 26 Approval of the president’s way of governing Disapproves 71 Approves 26 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 3 Disapproves 64 Perception of news items about the government Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 10 More favorable 13 Confidence in the president Neither favorable nor unfavorable 25 Have confidence 23 More unfavorable 47 No confidence 72 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 15 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 5 Comparison with Dilma Rousseff Approval of the government by performance area Better 21 Interest rates The same 42 Approves 14 Worse 34 Disapproves 79 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 3 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 7 Fighting unemployment The sum of the percentages may not be equal to 100 due to rounding errors. Approves 20 Disapproves 76 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 4 Public security Technical specifications Approves 20 Sample profile: 2,002 interviews in 141 Disapproves 76 municipalities. Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 4 Survey period: December 1 – 4, 2016. The estimated margin of error is 2 Fighting inflation percentage points above or below Approves 25 the results found in the sample. The Disapproves 70 confidence level is 95%. Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 6 Learn more Fighting hunger and poverty The complete data from this survey, Approves 26 i earlier versions and the methodology Disapproves 70 can be found at: Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 5 www.cni.org.br/e_pesqcniibope Taxes Approves 14 Disapproves 80 Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer 6

10 CNI Policy and Strategy Directorate – DIRPE

José Augusto Coelho Fernandes Director for Policy and Strategy

Research and Competitiveness Unit – GPC Renato da Fonseca Executive Manager for Research and Competitiveness

Edson Velloso Technical Team

Carla Regina P. Gadêlha Editorial production

CORPORATE SERVICES DIRECTORATE – DSC Administration, Documentation and Information Department – ADINF

Maurício Vasconcelos de Carvalho Executive Manager for Administration, Documentation and Information

Unit of Documentation and Information – GEDIN

Alberto Nemoto Yamaguti Normalization

IBOPE Inteligência Elaboration of the survey www.cni.org.br/indicadorescni