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Learning Lessons from the EUTF - Phase 2 - Paving the Way for Future Programming on Migration, Mobility and Forced Displacement

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Learning Lessons from the EUTF - Phase 2 - Paving the way for future programming on migration, mobility and forced displacement Altai Consulting for the European Union – February 2021 © European Union February 2021 Unless specified otherwise, all pictures in this report are credited to Altai Consulting. Cover photos (clockwise from top left): - Woman and child receiving primary medical care and NFIs at IOM’s Migrant Response Centre in Bosaso, Somalia © IOM - Ethical Fashion Initiative in Burkina Faso © Fanny Kabre for the European Union - Group of youths, some of them returnees, supported by an EUTF-funded resilience programme in Ethiopia © Altai Consulting - Market in Kiryandongo Refugee Settlement in northern Uganda © Guillem Trius - Carpentry training in the Rhino Settlement in northern Uganda © BTC/Enabel - A refugee and host community member pose in front of a sorghum farm in Kalobeyei, Kenya © FAO 2 Altai Consulting Altai Consulting provides strategy consulting, research and monitoring & evaluation services to public institutions, governments and private companies in developing countries. Altai teams operate in more than 50 countries in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. Since its inception 18 years ago, Altai Consulting has developed a strong focus on migration, governance and sustainable development related research and programme evaluation. CONTACT DETAILS: Eric Davin (Altai Partner): [email protected] Justine Rubira (Director): [email protected] www.altaiconsulting.com Acknowledgments This report was prepared by Eric Davin and Justine Rubira, with support from Maido Belles Roca, Marie Bonnet, Rebecca Christensen, Julie Dallet, Garance Dauchy, Marie Faou, Alessandro Grillo, Paola Hartpence, Bruno Kessler, Hugo Le Blay, Erick Ogola, Paul Olivier, Jacopo Patrini, Emile Rolland, Mathilde Verdeil, Héloïse Voisin and Dhanya Williams. We gratefully thank the numerous key informants from a broad range of organisations who took the time to speak with us during the last five months. We would also like to thank the EU Delegations who took the time to talk with us, as well as the EUTF team in Brussels, migration experts from the G6 unit of INTPA, other European agencies involved in migration, mobility and forced displacement, and, finally, the government representatives of EU member states and EUTF partner countries who kindly answered our questions. 3 Disclaimers: The designations employed and the borders displayed in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Altai Consulting concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This publication was produced with the financial support of the European Union. Its contents are the sole responsibility of Altai Consulting and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union. Altai Consulting February 2021 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 5 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 31 RECENT AND FUTURE MIGRATION AND DISPLACEMENT TRENDS ........................... 36 EUTF PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS – MIGRATION & FORCED DISPLACEMENT IN THE EUTF 42 MIGRATION GOVERNANCE ............................................................................................. 51 LABOUR MIGRATION & MIGRATION FOR DEVELOPMENT .......................................... 68 RESPONSE TO FORCED DISPLACEMENT ..................................................................... 86 PROTECTION .................................................................................................................. 111 RETURN & REINTEGRATION ......................................................................................... 135 RESPONSE TO TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS AND THE SMUGGLING OF MIGRANTS 161 BORDER MANAGEMENT................................................................................................ 180 TRIPLE NEXUS ................................................................................................................ 197 EUTF STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES ....................................................................... 213 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE PROGRAMMING ................................................ 223 4 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 233 ANNEXES ........................................................................................................................ 234 Learning Lessons from the EUTF – Phase 2 Executive summary Executive summary Introduction1 At the end of 2021, the last contracts of the European Union Emergency Trust Fund for stability and addressing root causes of irregular migration and displaced persons in Africa (EUTF for Africa, hereafter EUTF or Trust Fund) will be signed, bringing an end to an instrument that has so far funded over 500 projects in more than 25 countries in Africa, with a total of over €4.8B committed since 2016. The next multi-year funding instrument, known as the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI), is currently expected to dedicate 10% to migration-related activities. The transition phase between the two instruments offers a unique opportunity to take advantage of the significant experience gained through the EUTF as well as through other migration activities supported by the international community, often in complementarity with the EUTF. This report therefore aims to provide an analysis of the migration, mobility and displacement programming in EUTF target countries and highlight best practices (both by the EUTF and other interventions) and opportunities to inform future programming. Background, objectives and methodology The Learning lessons from the EUTF exercise was initiated at the end of June 2019 as a light, forward looking exercise, intended as an internal and informal reflection on what could be learned from the implementation of the EUTF on the topics of migration and forced displacement. The initial findings of this exercise were delivered in January 2020 in a first draft report. The second phase of the Learning lessons from the EUTF exercise, which lasted from June 2020 to February 2021 pursued the following objectives: pave the way for a post-2020 strategy on migration, 5 mobility and forced displacement; update the EUTF portfolio assessment and contextual data developed in phase I; further analyse the eight thematic areas identified and deliver an updated Learning lessons from the EUTF report at the beginning of 2021 to support future programming. The research was based on the analysis of: materials from implementing partners working on EUTF projects; in-depth secondary research on migration, mobility and forced displacement in general and on each of the eight identified thematic areas represented in the diagram below; and key informant interviews with over 350 stakeholders from a variety of organisations including EU agencies, most EU Delegations (EUDs) covered by the EUTF, implementing partners, member states, the United Nations (UN) and other international organisations as well as members of non-governmental organisations (NGOs), think tanks, academia and civil society. The report was also based on case studies that were conducted in parallel on relevant topics and projects. Figure 1: Eight thematic areas in the scope of the study 1 Sources for all information mentioned in the Executive Summary can be found in footnotes in the relevant sections of the main report. Altai Consulting February 2021 Executive summary Migration and displacement trends Irregular arrivals from Africa to Europe have sharply decreased since the migration ‘crisis’ of 2015, which was itself mostly attributable to increased mixed migration from the Middle East, not Africa. Conversely, and perhaps most importantly, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the three EUTF windows, combined with the number of refugees from these countries living in Africa, increased by a third between 2015 and 2019 – from 13.3 million to 17.7 million, including many children. In fact, the number of displaced persons in the SLC region increased by 1.5 million between 2018 and 2019 alone. The COVID-19 crisis will continue to have a significant influence on migration in the short to medium term. The main migration-related consequences of the pandemic will likely consist in a significant impact on remittances as well as a deterioration of already poor and crowded living conditions for migrants and refugees and worsening access to education and socioeconomic conditions. In the coming decades, migration, mobility and forced displacement-related challenges are likely to increase, driven mainly by factors such as demographic growth, economic development and climate change. The combination of these factors will, above all, exacerbate pressures on African cities: the number of urban residents in Africa is expected to increase from 550 million in 2018 to 825 million in 2030 and 1.5 billion in 2050, with migration currently contributing to around a third of the increase in the urban population. All of this suggests a need for a sustained and even increased EU response to migration, forced displacement and mobility-related challenges in Africa, including in cities which will likely be on the frontline
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