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Manhattan Office Q4 2017

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Manhattan Office Q4 2017 MARKETBEAT Manhattan Office Q4 2017 MANHATTAN OFFICE Economy The New York City economy was fairly inconsistent Economic Indicators* in 2017 as total employment fell in the first quarter, 12-Month Q4 16 Q4 17 Forecast increased in the second quarter, declined again in New York City Employment 4.39M 4.44M the third only to rise in the fourth. By November 2017, payroll employment in New York City was New York City Unemployment 4.9% 4.7% 53,200 jobs higher than at the end of 2016. Office- U.S. Unemployment 4.7% 4.1% using employment increased by 18,600 jobs in 2017, led by growth in the financial services sector, which *Average of first two months of Q4 2017 added 12,700 jobs in the first 11 months of the year and is on pace to record its strongest growth in Market Indicators (Overall, All Classes) more than a decade and possibly the best in more 12-Month Q4 16 Q4 17 Forecast than 25 years. Professional and business services gained 11,700 jobs through November, while Vacancy 9.3% 8.9% information services lost 5,800 jobs. Overall, the Net Absorption (sf) 2.6M 7.4M local economy remains on a solid footing heading Under Construction (sf) 12.5M 13.3M into 2018. Average Asking Rent* $72.82 $72.25 Market Overview *Rental rates reflect gross asking $psf/year Manhattan office leasing increased sharply in Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent 2017, outperforming 2016’s activity by 16.0% with 4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE 30.5 million square feet (msf) of new leases transacted, the second highest level in 17 years. 8,000,000 $75 Fourth quarter activity totaled 7.0 msf, 11.7% above 6,000,000 the 6.3 msf quarterly historical average. More than $70 9.0 msf of renewals were transacted in 2017, bringing 4,000,000 the 2017 leasing total to 39.6 msf—the second $65 highest level in the last 15 years. Financial services 2,000,000 $60 was the primary driver of activity in 2017, accounting 0 for 28.8% of new leasing activity greater than $55 10,000 sf, up from 21.9% in 2016. The leasing -2,000,000 activity surge was fueled by an all-time high of -4,000,000 $50 22 leases signed greater than 250,000 sf up from 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 only 10 in 2016. Net Absorption, SF Asking Rent, $ PSF Sublease space increased by 1.5 msf since the end of 2016 but strong leasing and an 8.8% Overall Vacancy reduction of direct available space pushed Manhattan’s overall vacancy down by 40 basis 13% points (bps) year-over-year to 8.9%, marking the first time in six quarters that vacancy fell below 11% 9.0%. All three major markets posted single-digit Class A vacancy rates simultaneously for the first time since early 2009, with Downtown’s Class A 9% Historical Average = 9.5% vacancy ending 2017 at its lowest level in nearly five years. Healthy leasing brought 2017’s overall 7% absorption to register positive 7.4 million square feet (msf), the second highest annual total on record, only behind the 10.9 msf absorbed in 2014. 5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 cushmanwakefield.com I 1 MARKETBEAT Manhattan Office Q4 2017 Midtown fourth quarter new leasing reached nearly Manhattan Available Space Year-Over-Year Percent Change 4.9 msf, bringing the 2017 total to a 23-year high of SUBLEASE SPACE CLIMBS AS DIRECT SPACE DECLINES IN ALL MARKETS 19.7 msf. There were 27 new leases transacted exceeding 100,000 sf, totaling 6.5 msf—42.2% of which occurred in Penn Station’s Far West 100.0% Side properties. Despite November’s delivery of 80.0% +77.5% 787 Eleventh Avenue, strong December leasing activity lowered Midtown’s overall vacancy rate by 60.0% 10 bps this quarter to finish 2017 at 9.5%. Five of 40.0% +31.2% the nine Midtown submarkets registered a quarterly +24.4% +23.2% decline in vacancy with Penn Station down by 20.0% 90 bps to 6.4%, a 320-bp decline from 2016. Available 0.0% sublease space increased 24.4% since year-end 2016 -5.5% -6.8% -20.0% -8.8% to 4.1 msf, but dipped 2.2% since the second quarter. -17.9% Sixth Avenue/Rock Center accounted for 42.8% of -40.0% Midtown’s positive absorption, largely due to Bank of Manhattan Midtown Midtown South Downtown America leasing 470,451 sf at 1100 and 1114 Avenue Direct Sublease of the Americas. Overall asking rents declined 0.9% during the quarter to $76.94 psf, partially due to leasing of higher-priced space and are down 1.8% since year-end 2016. Manhattan Leases 250,000+ SF 2017 REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH Midtown South leasing reached 5.0 msf in 2017, 2.1% above the 4.9 msf transacted in 2016. Overall vacancy 25 dropped 40 bps during the quarter to 6.9%, primarily 22 attributed to nine new leases signed between 20 25,000 to 100,000 sf. Healthy leasing combined with an absence of large block additions contributed to 15 15 positive fourth quarter absorption in all five Midtown 14 13 12 South submarkets, bringing 2017’s annual absorption 10 11 10 10 10 to 705,931 sf. Midtown South overall asking rents 9 fell 2.8% in 2017 to $68.87 psf, largely due to price 5 6 6 reductions on more than 500,000 sf of space. 0 The Downtown office market’s leasing activity spiked 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 in 2017, surpassing 2016’s activity by 63.6%. Overall absorption registered positive 2.1 msf—largely due to strong leasing in the World Trade and Financial East submarkets. Overall vacancy remained flat during Outlook the fourth quarter at 8.7% but dipped 150 bps from 10.2% in 2016, as the amount of direct available space • More than 5.7 msf of new construction is on the market dropped 17.9% to 6.7 msf. Vacancy slated for delivery in 2018, the highest amount in four of the six Downtown submarkets declined of office product to hit the Manhattan market at least 90 bps over the past year, with World since 1986 Trade vacancy decreasing by 410 bps to 10.0%, triggered by five new lease transactions exceeding • With several large deals in the pipeline, the 100,000 sf that totaled 1.0 msf. Downtown Manhattan office market is well-positioned for Class A vacancy dipped to 9.5% in the fourth quarter, continued growth in 2018 the first quarter since 2013 that vacancy fell below 10.0%. Higher-priced spaces leased during the fourth • New construction will likely push vacancy quarter pushed overall asking rents down 0.3% to higher while remaining within equilibrium $62.76 psf, but remain 0.7% higher than 2016. cushmanwakefield.com I 2 MARKETBEAT Manhattan Office Q4 2017 SUBLET DIRECT OVERALL CURRENT QTR YTD OVERALL YTD LEASING UNDER OVERALL AVERAGE OVERALL INVENTORY SUBMARKET VACANT VACANT VACANCY OVERALL NET NET ABSORPTION ACTIVITY CNSTR ASKING RENT AVERAGE ASKING (SF) (SF) (SF) RATE ABSORPTION (SF) (SF) (SF) (SF) (ALL CLASSES)* RENT (CLASS A)* East Side/UN 21,551,123 239,355 1,384,930 7.5% 134,166 -333,611 803,575 0 $73.40 $74.41 Grand Central 42,763,951 606,955 4,039,966 10.9% 32,479 683,445 3,194,320 2,576,630 $70.11 $73.57 Madison/Fifth 24,645,391 342,432 2,571,634 11.8% 174,921 -7,124 1,376,020 0 $99.15 $105.44 Murray Hill 14,232,299 295,552 727,036 7.2% -25,349 117,949 805,838 0 $58.61 $63.47 Park Avenue 21,279,326 661,375 1,745,929 11.3% -132,652 50,821 1,532,953 728,700 $90.55 $90.55 Penn Station 16,095,431 270,583 758,432 6.4% 172,770 837,361 3,852,600 6,181,327 $60.05 $66.91 Sixth Avenue/Rock Center 41,486,983 715,515 3,277,049 9.6% 852,698 1,980,892 3,272,459 0 $85.37 $86.68 Times Square South 30,209,473 591,372 2,319,908 9.6% -856 420,681 3,089,636 0 $59.88 $76.03 West Side 30,885,865 377,930 2,107,038 8.0% 289,782 874,986 1,791,528 0 $72.99 $77.52 MIDTOWN TOTALS 243,149,842 4,101,069 18,931,922 9.5% 1,497,959 4,625,400 19,718,929 9,486,657 $76.94 $83.57 Chelsea 15,320,867 389,072 788,033 7.7% 121,872 -9,413 986,679 808,396 $59.09 $88.70 Greenwich/NoHo 4,882,853 38,322 109,398 3.0% 120,435 68,614 251,194 0 $77.43 $115.00 Hudson Square/West Village 11,054,152 150,083 690,978 7.6% 87,847 249,010 938,176 272,342 $80.52 $88.70 Madison/Union Square 32,119,100 436,743 1,601,731 6.3% 199,887 486,500 2,575,812 0 $67.66 $78.74 SoHo 3,940,710 91,031 367,476 11.6% 21,213 -88,780 271,963 83,709 $73.62 N/A MIDTOWN SOUTH TOTALS 67,317,682 1,105,251 3,557,616 6.9% 551,254 705,931 5,023,824 1,164,447 $68.87 $84.99 City Hall 7,690,533 1,284 426,038 5.6% 11,226 216,637 425,422 0 $53.29 $52.64 Financial East 34,276,501 232,703 2,561,278 8.2% 181,630 975,699 2,177,155 48,077 $56.91 $59.57 Financial West 5,986,809 81,482 867,734 15.9% -239,668 -252,534 472,038 0 $59.45 $51.31 Insurance 13,106,300 260,999 741,114 7.6% -26,292 231,399 812,255 110,661 $55.54 $58.81 TriBeCa 5,124,468 32,774 257,126 5.7% 0 -127,173 125,675 0 $87.72 $92.21 World Trade 22,331,586 364,881 1,858,239 10.0% 235,067 1,037,702 1,762,845 2,491,861 $64.43 $65.48 DOWNTOWN TOTALS 88,516,197 974,123 6,711,529 8.7% 161,963 2,081,730 5,775,390 2,650,549 $60.23 $62.76 MANHATTAN TOTALS 398,983,721 6,180,443 29,201,067 8.9% 2,211,176 7,413,061 30.518,143 13,301,653 $72.25 $79.05 *Rental rates reflect gross asking $psf/year Key Lease Transactions Q4 2017 PROPERTY SF TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET One Manhattan West 675,062 Ernst & Young (EY) New Lease Penn Station 787 Seventh Avenue 347,672 Sidley Austin Renewal* Sixth Avenue/Rock Center 1100 Avenue of the Americas 343,026 Bank of America New Lease Sixth Avenue/Rock Center *Renewals not included in leasing statistics Key Sales Transactions Q4 2017 PROPERTY SF SELLER / BUYER PRICE / $PSF SUBMARKET New York REIT/ One Worldwide Plaza* 2,055,583 $840.1M/$839 West Side RXR Realty and SL Green Realty Corp SL Green Realty Corp/ 1515 Broadway 1,750,000 $585.0M/$1,114 West Side Allianz Real Estate of America 1440 Broadway
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