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A Case Study of Tristan Da Cunha

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A Case Study of Tristan Da Cunha An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha Anna Jayne Hicks A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of East Anglia Department of Environmental Sciences May 2012 © This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that use of any information derived there from must be in accordance with current UK Copyright Law. In addition, any quotation or extract must include full attribution. ABSTRACT This research project adopts an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the active volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha. Tristan has a relatively poorly defined eruptive record and little effective monitoring capability. Although a young volcano (~200 ka), eruptions have been numerous, with no apparent spatio-temporal correlation, style, volume or compositional relationships. The last eruption in 1961 prompted a temporary (~2 year), evacuation of the island’s small population. The paucity of data, uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios, recent volcanic activity and evacuation challenges facing this remote community emphasises the need for increased knowledge about the volcano, and implementation of effective risk reduction measures. New field observations from Tristan and a precise geochronology of the recent eruptive history are presented. These datasets were administered in an expert elicitation exercise aimed at quantifying uncertainty. Experts provided an objective expression of the existence, extent and significance of the uncertainty surrounding future eruptive scenarios on the island. In order to effectively communicate the science and encourage implementation of risk reduction measures, knowledge of the social context and collaboration with islanders was essential. Study of the social context established that while the Tristan population are disproportionately vulnerable to the effects of volcanic eruptions and other natural hazards due to location, the community retains inherent coping capacity, held in social capital. Cultural changes manifest from ‘system shocks’ such as the evacuation, and from slower drivers, such as the recent introduction of modern media and communications, are acknowledged to have both strengthened and eroded resilience. All data (results from natural, decision and social sciences) were integrated into a participatory communication strategy, focussed around a scenario planning exercise. This encouraged islanders to consider responses to possible future eruptive scenarios and improve mitigation. An evacuation drill was successfully completed with the whole community, and is set to be repeated annually. i ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Foremost thanks go to Jenni and Peter for your guidance and support. This research has been challenging in many ways and I am thankful to you both for steering me through the passionate yet testing world of interdisciplinary research. It has been interesting and enjoyable working with you both and I look forward to new opportunities to continue our efforts! This research was predominantly funded by an ESRC/NERC interdisciplinary studentship and I must also acknowledge financial support from UEA. I appreciate the support of the BGS (and financial assistance from the BUFI initiative) and the valuable advice, supervision and encouragement from Sue. My upmost thanks go to other academics that have assisted with this research, especially Willy for his expertise and advice with the expert elicitation process and analysis. Thanks also to the 18 elicitees and the UEA-based experts who sacrificed their time to finesse the elicitation process for this project: Fionnuala, Mel, Katie, Jon, Jenni and Ricky. It has been a delight to work with Darren, Fin, Jim and Ross at the Argon facility at SUERC. I had never envisaged my research leading in this direction, but you all have made it seem effortless (relatively...) and have supported and encouraged the relevance and importance of this type of work. I look forward to working together in the future. Precise dating of Tristan rocks was due, partly, to meticulous sample preparation, so thanks must be extended to Jason and Mike at Cambridge for use of facilities and the assistance of my able (although possibly now forever disabled) research associate during the crystal picking stages! Hicks et al., 2012 was definitely a group effort! A massive thank you is extended to Bertrand at UEA for assistance with XRF analysis and to Doug at BGS for map data. To past and present UEA buddies, Amii, Sian, Mel and Katie – I can’t tell you how much it meant to hear friendly voices, receive supportive advice and local gossip (!) whilst 6,000 miles away....from the bottom of my heart, thank you. Special thanks also to Amii for valuable assistance during the last few days of the write-up! Looking to the world outside of Norwich, thank you to Ben and Phil who have shared in many highs and lows during the last few years. You both have influenced me as a person and have helped guide the direction of my research. I am so thankful that we shared the 4th July 2009 together. So to Tristan. Many thanks to Michael, Richard and Ilan who helped so much at the project outset and introduced me to the remarkable group of UK-based Tristanophiles at the TdC AGM. I will continue to attend post-PhD purely to maintain valuable friendships. Initially, iii few of us at UEA ever really imagined a successful bid to the Tristan Island Council, let alone a ‘relatively’ problem-free fieldwork experience (only stranded for a month!) coupled with an informative research output. For that, I am grateful to partners at the FCO: Ian, Rob, Frank, David and Sean, and the Tristan Island Council, for sanctioning and supporting my research on the island. I consider myself extraordinarily lucky to have arrived at the door as it was opening, and I truly hope my research has been a valuable addition to risk reduction efforts on Tristan. To all Tristanians I feel the deepest gratitude for your kindness, generosity and support during my two field seasons on your island, particularly to Gracie, Catherine, Connie and Sharon – from the bottom of my heart I thank you for your hospitality, friendship and warmth. The minute I set foot on Tristan, I felt so at home, and you all have done your upmost to support me in my work and establish lifelong friendships. Among them are my dear friends Vera and Desiree, and my little buddy Leo. I hold you all very close to my heart and I thank you for precious conversations, advice and memories. To Leon, seven months together and what seems like a lifetime of memories - 1000+ games of knock, winter swimming in the South Atlantic (brrr...), catching 32 five fingers (mine were the biggest, and you know it), cherry fizz biscuits and penguin poking (even the ‘really dead’ ones). Was your gear box ever the same? To Clive, I feel so thankful to have seen and shared beautiful mountain vistas with such a good friend. Our last day on the hill was a wonderful way to wrap up an incredible journey....even if we did temporarily lose Boxer and miss the Wales rugby match that wasn’t even on. So thanks for getting me around the whole island (first woman ever...right?) in one piece, with a smile on my face and happiness in my heart. I’ll miss the sarcasm, the laughs and, of course, the dancing. I won’t miss the clumsiness....let’s hope I can stay on my feet from now on. But really, none of this could have been achieved without the endless support from my family. Firstly to Kelby, you have been there from the outset of my (and our) volcano journey. Almost eight years ago in Hawai’i, you guided me over my first 30-second-old rock. Two days later, without you there, I fell through a flow....and we haven’t looked back. Since then, we have leapt into Yasur, have been rained on by Ambrym, been ‘lost’ on Hekla (good old piccanto...), gone caldera-roaming in Las Cañadas and have sat with our legs dangling over the edge of the rim of the volcano that first grabbed my attention as a teenager, Mount St. Helens. I look fondly back at these amazing experiences, and look forward to many more years visiting, and sharing, the places we love. Thank you also for effectively giving up three weeks of your life to assist me with the last stretch of the thesis write-up. I iv don’t wish to dwell on the rough patches, so I won’t, but please know how thankful I am and that it will never have to happen again….that is until it’s your turn! Thanks to Dad for your unwavering enthusiasm hearing about my various stories from around the world, and especially for helping me with the latter stages of my thesis write-up. That week really did help to get this turned around in time. To Helen and Rob, Mo and Gary for help, support and for just keeping me going through the tough times – thank you. To Martin, thank you for trusting in my ability to do this project. Knowing that someone else thought I could do it made me believe it too. I look forward to sharing another graduation with you, and adorning a floppy hat this time! I often reflect on my fortune to have had such an incredible research experience coupled with such superb support, both at home and from UEA, but there is no one else to whom I would want to dedicate this thesis to other my mum. Mum - the last four years (ok, 30!) have been tough in many ways but you have been my constant, my confidant, my support.
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